Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 934 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #18,661
  • Jun 13, 2017 4:08am Jun 13, 2017 4:08am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I took the 04-00 AU trade and caught the break SHORT but like a true rookie I used a trailing stop of 2.5 pips and got stopped out at 3 pips. This was a eye opener for me.....no longer am I using a Trailing Stop....it takes away from the entire countering strategy that this whole things is built around........in my novice opinion. I now have a RULE for my counter trading. I believe I now have my SET RULES in place.....cross my fingers!! I will be posting my live trades as often as i can. +%%% to everyone!!
a trailing stop is useful in many peoples eyes and i suppose they work.
I never touch a trailing stop but maybe if i let a trade run.
actually it would go against my method. Which ever way you trade ,stick to the method.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,662
  • Jun 13, 2017 4:09am Jun 13, 2017 4:09am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} Jesus Claudia you average like a monster. Worked for a interbank dealer or something?
lol, you want to see mine when i trade hard , yaaaaaaaaaaaay
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,663
  • Jun 13, 2017 4:12am Jun 13, 2017 4:12am
Quoting billytt
{quote} lol, you want to see mine when i trade hard , yaaaaaaaaaaaay
Yes!
  • #18,664
  • Jun 13, 2017 4:12am Jun 13, 2017 4:12am
Quoting bojack34
What is the smallest range we should trade on the 04-00 bar? What is the largest range we should trade on the 04-00 bar? I have a good idea of what to do once I enter the trade but I would like to have some good "rules" as to "when to enter" the trade in the first place. Thanks.

you need stats, too small a range and you might get whip.
Too large and you are open to pivots/00 etc (call them obstacles).
BUT too small , you might be on an inside bar, or even close to previous daily low. That is where the stats come in.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,665
  • Jun 13, 2017 4:13am Jun 13, 2017 4:13am
Quoting billytt
{quote} a trailing stop is useful in many peoples eyes and i suppose they work. I never touch a trailing stop but maybe if i let a trade run. actually it would go against my method. Which ever way you trade ,stick to the method.
I choose not to use a trailing stop because i agree it totally defeats the entire purpose of your strategy.....the "counter trade".
  • #18,666
  • Edited 4:47am Jun 13, 2017 4:14am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} great idea....i like it! TY EDIT: Average range for last 50 04-00 bar is 19.65.
averages are useleless (mostly) what is the most frequent? that will show you if the average is useful or not, if the most frequent is way beyond or below the average what use is it?

google. frequency distribution.

stuff like this makes me wish i didnt completely flunk maths in school lol

but then again i never cared about if sally gave jim 4 apples when she had 9, if my math teacher had told me we could stick a line on a bar chart and make %% i would of been on my way lol
  • #18,667
  • Jun 13, 2017 4:19am Jun 13, 2017 4:19am
Quoting billytt
{quote} you need stats, too small a range and you might get whip. Too large and you are open to pivots/00 etc (call them obstacles). BUT too small , you might be on an inside bar, or even close to previous daily low. That is where the stats come in.
bill has ur genius lady friend ever spoke about using some kind of regression analysis to predict what the next break might be in terms of pips.

when you look at the amount broken on the first break as a time series it is very stationary. its to my understanding when a time series is stationary and safely wobbles around a mean its easy to use regression or something with a big word to make accurate predictions about the next outcome?
  • #18,668
  • Jun 13, 2017 5:37am Jun 13, 2017 5:37am
i haven't gone out yet,
i cooked my Lady bolognaise for dinner for when she gets home.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,669
  • Edited 6:04am Jun 13, 2017 5:42am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} bill has ur genius lady friend ever spoke about using some kind of regression analysis to predict what the next break might be in terms of pips. when you look at the amount broken on the first break as a time series it is very stationary. its to my understanding when a time series is stationary and safely wobbles around a mean its easy to use regression or something with a big word to make accurate predictions about the next outcome?
.
Like she says forget about fundamentals as these will alter the market unexpectedly, for instance natural disaster, terrorism, unexpected government happening, acts of war etc. She wants to tap into the big boys who shift the market playing the game, like the old boys did with stocks decades ago.

edit, i had to delete a part lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,670
  • Jun 13, 2017 5:47am Jun 13, 2017 5:47am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} averages are useleless (mostly) what is the most frequent? that will show you if the average is useful or not, if the most frequent is way beyond or below the average what use is it? google. frequency distribution. stuff like this makes me wish i didnt completely flunk maths in school lol but then again i never cared about if sally gave jim 4 apples when she had 9, if my math teacher had told me we could stick a line on a bar chart and make %% i would of been on my way lol
averages are a waste of pixels,
OK they say if we have a 200 moving average that is useful.
They also say if a pair is above the 200 ma go long and if under go short, yeah right .
Actually it might be right but i only look for a few points then maybe chase the daily range.
Speaking averages, if we had 100 men, 50 USA basket ball players and 50 UK paratroopers,what is the average suit size we buy them ???
Frequency Distribution would tell you. I like your post Pip.

edit,,,, Daily Pivot is something else, phew almost forgot
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,671
  • Jun 13, 2017 5:53am Jun 13, 2017 5:53am
Quoting billytt
{quote} oh yes,AND they all had bets on out General Election last week. betting on no majority... Like she says forget about fundamentals as these will alter the market unexpectedly, for instance natural disaster, terrorism, unexpected government happening, acts of war etc. She wants to tap into the big boys who shift the market playing the game, like the old boys did with stocks decades ago.
hmm. if its possible it could very well be worth looking into.

the edge is obviously 100% static otherwise someone would have blown up an account and never came back from it a long time ago lol. if instead of just capping the stat at +10 etc. record the exact number of pips the market broke the first time before reaching the other end (if it ended up doing so, if not count all the pips). i did this on my first recording of AU stats but it got tiresome lol i plotted it on a line graph and its as stationary as you'd want a mean reverting time series to be! thats where my knowledge caps out LOOOL but ive watched a few things on youtube where people use regression algos and machine learning, but they have to do loads of gobbledygoock to chop the data apart to 'create' a stationary time series because they work solely with price movements which we all know are far from stationary even though it might be at certain times. hence it either doesn't work good or takes some genius level understanding and implementation to make it work. but when you look at the amount of units price moves from a certain limit (or trade a line as we say around here) it is stationary. its been bugging me for a while now lol
  • #18,672
  • Jun 13, 2017 6:08am Jun 13, 2017 6:08am
  •  Hpt
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: everybody trade at one`s own risk | 648 Posts
Quoting Hpt
Hope don`t disturb this good thread EGM15 EG M15 you see 2 boxes for inital balance (red), after break of round number .. first entry.. after break of IB open price (greenline dash) from yesterday 2. entry ! after break of R1 D1 (D1 Frankurt floorpivot) 3. entry correponding with yesterdays high- NY (blue) gray is 04.00 candle H4 as IB corresponding with IB 6.45 to Lo open {image} zoom {image} 04:00 with pivots works nice if this disturb you . I delete this post
EGM15 short
freetrade now. 1. entry to late. price stops at little demandzone and earlier high (htf). 2. entry at retrace. wait and see

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from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
  • #18,673
  • Jun 13, 2017 6:12am Jun 13, 2017 6:12am
[quote=Piphunter00;9972198]{quote} hmm. if its possible it could very well be worth looking into. the edge is obviously 100% static otherwise someone would have blown up an account and never came back from it a long time ago lol. if instead of just capping the stat at +10 etc. record the exact number of pips the market broke the first time before
i think i know your post,
My Lady gave me all those stats, pips,time.range/retrace etc but honestly i dont need them...
Plus i asked her not to supply them anymore ...
The thing we dont know is the unknown factor of when the big boys will play the game.
I place a trade and then expect to lose, my odds of losing are very slim, but i have the stats to guide...
AND we can have a second loss, it happens, But we also have COUNTER YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY.
YOU DONT LOSE UNTIL YOU CLOSE..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,674
  • Jun 13, 2017 6:21am Jun 13, 2017 6:21am
Quoting billytt
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote} hmm. if its possible it could very well be worth looking into. the edge is obviously 100% static otherwise someone would have blown up an account and never came back from it a long time ago lol. if instead of just capping the stat at +10 etc. record the exact number of pips the market broke the first time before i think i know your post, My Lady gave me all those stats, pips,time.range/retrace etc but honestly i dont need them... Plus i asked her not to supply them anymore ... The thing we dont know is the unknown
...
lool god save the counter.

was jus random thoughts tbh not something im seriously trying to accomplish to 'make things better' or reduce the already slim chances of losing.

i was jus watching one of these vids on the tube and had a spark of inspiration lol interesting that your lady has spoke of this before.

who would of thought the kid who got a Grade U (believe it or not) in maths is having similar ideas to a uni lecturer.

yaaaaaaay i not stupid after all.
  • #18,675
  • Edited 7:37am Jun 13, 2017 7:03am | Edited 7:37am
The Dead Zone is looking uninspiring today. Nothing giving me that tingly-all-over feeling, lol.

Ones to consider:

UC. I'd be looking for a drop and then get in on a long back.
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UNok. Again, it's pushing short, so I'd be looking to come back on it.
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GN. Looking to go short off the PP.
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GU. It's been driving upward but is setting up a possible 1-2-3 at the moment and the PA on H4 and Daily isn't so Bullish. Possible short.
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NJ. I'm looking for a climb to let me catch the drop.
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There are a few other similar to NJ, where price is playing around pivots but these will do.
  • #18,676
  • Jun 13, 2017 7:17am Jun 13, 2017 7:17am
Quoting Piphunter00
{quote}{quote} lool god save the counter. was jus random thoughts tbh not something im seriously trying to accomplish to 'make things better' or reduce the already slim chances of losing. i was jus watching one of these vids on the tube and had a spark of inspiration lol interesting that your lady has spoke of this before. who would of thought the kid who got a Grade U (believe it or not) in maths is having similar ideas to a uni lecturer. yaaaaaaay i not stupid after all.
even einstein couldn't do basic maths,
I think things and use them and later told it already has a name, Like Frequency distribution.
Maths is behind almost everything in the universe, it can be plotted with numbers.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,677
  • Jun 13, 2017 7:48am Jun 13, 2017 7:48am
''Speaking averages, if we had 100 men, 50 USA basket ball players and 50 UK paratroopers,what is the average suit size we buy them ???''

That's the best comment I've read in...forever, lol.

It should also so be in next year's maths higher exam - watch their little snowflake heads explode.
  • #18,678
  • Jun 13, 2017 7:50am Jun 13, 2017 7:50am
Quoting lemercenaire
''Speaking averages, if we had 100 men, 50 USA basket ball players and 50 UK paratroopers,what is the average suit size we buy them ???'' That's the best comment I've read in...forever, lol. It should also so be in next year's maths higher exam - watch their little snowflake heads explode.
lol,trick question... the ball players only wear trackies and combats/jeans for paras.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #18,679
  • Jun 13, 2017 7:54am Jun 13, 2017 7:54am
Quoting billytt
{quote} lol,trick question... the ball players only wear trackies and combats/jeans for paras.
then you'd have to run a frequency distribution on leg lengths and waist sizes? then group them according to each combination of waist and leg thats available from the manufacturer looool
  • #18,680
  • Jun 13, 2017 7:56am Jun 13, 2017 7:56am
Quoting billytt
{quote} even einstein couldn't do basic maths, I think things and use them and later told it already has a name, Like Frequency distribution. Maths is behind almost everything in the universe, it can be plotted with numbers.
recently watched the series they made on einstein. was really really good. if any of it was sort of accurate then he completely flunked high school didnt bother with it and then took the university entry exam twice.

recommended watch if anyone is yet to see it.
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