AUDUSD journal

EURUSD

looking at eurusd daily I actually think its overbought. See it didn't even bother to touch the LL of the channel on daily it just kept shooting higher and higher. if we do fall from here I think it's going to be a hard landing until at 4h LL channel and from there we'll see if its headed up or down.

Surprisingly not much of a reaction.
But moves are restrained still.

I'll check the charts tomorrow.

Should have kept my EURUSD short.

Well you're learning.

EURAUD upward channel broken on 4h. So far no bounce off. But on 1h I'm seeing some change of course.

So I'm finished on my observation of naked charts on all pairs that I have on my watchlist all the way from weekly to hourly charts. I see EUR turning around for a downward move, EURAUD and EURNZD actually have already slided down. EURCAD,EURUSD and EURGBP has been holding up until today and now after Draghi they're finally dropping.

I'm looking at 4h channels of EURCAD for short tomorrow.

GBPJPY on daily, I have a feeling it could surge higher on 1h and 4h currently rejecting a correction down channel. But we had double bottom form on 4h thats something to look out for potential upward surge and daily up trend continuation. But so far both on 1h and 4h I"m seeing a rejection.

GBPAUD,GBPNZD,EURAUD,EURNZD could use some correction.

EURAUD

up channel broken on daily, strong resistance @ 1.52 on weekly, 4h up channel broken, now the down pressure seem to be pretty strong see I couldn't draw a trend line instead just a line that seems to be an upper edge for this downward channel. If you zoom down to 1h we see rejection candles long wicks but the level is still holding up EURGBP cross surged higher up and I see pound weakness across the board that's probably why euro is slightly stronger.

This looks like a good short though. We'll see.
But if 1.4850 holds and we see breakout it could go the other way.

EURNZD again very narrow down channel on daily

For now I don't know if it will go up or break out the 4h down channel going further down. We'll have to wait and see.
But 4h that candle don't look so good for the bulls. 2nd line that I have on 1h which it failed to break out numerous times is pushing EURNZD further down to low edge of the 4h down channel, this tells me that despite eurgbp upward surge EUR weakness persists especially on EURNZD. Kiwi has been really strong lately, just compare the down channel of EURNZD and EURAUD.

For now that's all I have on my watchlist.

GBP is breaking out of down channels everywhere with the exception of GBPCAD up channel but its going down. EURGBP is surging up that probably explains why EURAUD and EURNZD wouldn't go down any further.

EURUSD is also out of down channel after forming a curve (topping) damn it should have kept my short , I'll to wait for the sky to clear on this and GBP crosses before I set myself in for another position.

EURAUD 4h 200EMA
EURNZD 12h 200EMA

EURAUD broke out of the range on 1h

floor is established on 4h. But the prominent level see the yellow dash line 1.4927 will provide a strong resistance for EURAUD long orders. Have patience. Wait on that level and see how price reacts. Too early to go long or to do anything.

so is EURUSD but I like what I'm seeing on EURAUD. If I have to buy I think I'll buy EURAUD.

EURNZD daily chart.

in a span of 3 months EUR rose over 1300pips against kiwi.
its funny I didn't get to make a single dime from that move.

now its gone down reversal.
the downward move left a very short notice.

now the question is will we get a parabola ? like we did when it was going up ? or we will it be stuck in a range ? or will it keep going up ?
only time will tell.

this is what makes trading so damn hard.
because one is not willing to wait that long.
we just want to be in action everyday.
hoping we'll be one of lucky ones to make it in this game.

I kept staring at charts since yesterday.
just bare charts.

Also from early morning.
now I almost feel nauseous
why must trading be so damn hard /
when you zoom out
and see the big picture
it looks so simple
and yet many of us
fail to make anything

if it seems or looks so simple
what makes it so damn hard ?

price just flows
we're out to make money
from that flow
fundamentals do drive
some of them are priced in already
big players place their orders on areas of S&R
that's also dynamic

we don't know where big orders are placed
there's no way to figure that out
we seek conviction still
without it you'll be lost in the vast ocean

that's how hard it is
don't be fooled by the charts
but at the same time
when you zoom out
it seems simple
and easy to make money
out of those moves

then what is it ?
that makes oh so very challenging
to make money ?
prediction, impatience
they're the devil
price confirmation
levels tested
along with some indicators *however you like it*
and higher TF
that seems to be a good recipe
for disaster
*jokes*
for consistency.

I'm just brainstorming.
Not that I lost my shirt.
I've made some winners this week.
But learning never stops they say when it comes to FX
And thats what I'm babbling about
Learning, observing and digesting.
Hopefully for the better.

Now here's the EURNZD daily with some MAs and MACD.
Learning how to properly use those *any indicators of your choice* can aid you in trading profitably.

If I hadn't had them daily 20ema candle close below it, just on bare charts I would have missed that out. Having those MAs I feel more convinced on top of everything lining up to go for a short.

Maybe if you're used to trading bare charts with pivot points, levels and PA you would have taken that setup on a bare chart. But I couldn't have done it without indicators. But that's not to say be over reliant on indicators, cross this buy cross this sell that's a recipe for disaster that's not how you use those indicators. They don't give signals they aid your decision. They're just a tool, not some money making machine.

NZDCAD daily

broke out went over 250pips in a span of 2 weeks

how stupid can you be to miss out on those trades ?

(its not about stupidity)
(I'm just babbling away)

EURCAD short on daily in 0.01 lot 10pips away from HH of daily.

This is where EURCAD's at

And I of course closed it yesterday at 40pips since then it dropped 250pips. Position was valid since late thursday and friday.

It is bitter to see price dropping over 200pips in a span of 3 days just after you got out. But I'm tasting my own medicine. For daily expect to give it 5 days at least it depends on the pairs as well, EUR and GBP crosses move faster than say AUDCAD or NZDUSD, on daily but even on 1m charts EUR and GBP crosses are more active than the rest of FX pairs.

I'm flat for now. But this is just the start.

I'm noticing EUR comeback since London open today. AUDUSD,NZDUSD seem to be in the topping process, so in turn EUR and GBP is getting back up against AUD and NZD. CAD is leading, I'm not keeping up date with fundamentals anymore something must have happened yesterday.

Yen pairs also seem to be moving up. CADJPY up didn't leave any signal on daily.

So for tomorrow I think I'll take a look at :

- EURAUD long
- EURNZD long
- GBPAUD long
- GBPNZD long
- GBPJPY long
- USDJPY long
- AUDJPY long
- AUDUSD short
- NZDUSD short

Of course I haven't got a final go go on all of them except for EURAUD, AUDJPY, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. It'll usually take few days of back and forth and once level is established you go ahead with the position. Even on daily you don't go in after just one candle in your favour. Give it a few days, price doesn't move smoothly especially in cases of reversals you'll get a few days until you make the final decision after the potential setup is detected. So I'm not rushing it. Tomorrow things change a bit but I'm already seeing change of direction with EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPAUD and GBPNZD in support of that AUDUSD and NZDUSD might be topping as well they've had a good run especially NZD.

If I'm set on trading daily. I will have to wait patiently for a position to develop (I don't think I have problem waiting for a setup to come around, I've gotten better) but sitting through those positions especially on TF as large as daily requires a tremendous amount of patience and discipline. But one thing guaranteed you won't be overtrading or closing positions at a loss.

How long do I have to sit through a position if I opened one on daily ?

Well if you really want to hold it until a ceiling or a floor is establish you may have to wait for as long as it takes - 1 month. Yes you heard it right 1 month. But largely it depends on the setup and the pattern you're working with. Sometimes it may take a week, 2 weeks but the average or should I say the longest you should be willing to wait is a month. Much like your paycheque ? I guess. Waiting on 1000pips for a month doesn't sound so bad is it ? there's no way I would average that much on 1min, 5min or even 15min. I may get better along the road, maybe in another year or so. But for now I can't. Thats the bottom line.

Another advantage to trading daily is that you can live your life. Once you enter a trade provided that your timing was on with SL placed at an appropriate distance within your risk tolerance you're good to go for the day or even for the week. You might want to screen the charts first thing in the morning or afternoon however you like it but usually with dailies if you're entry was well timed you should really worry about it at all if anything goes wrong SL will take care of your position.

Today London came I opened up EURAUD on 15m and I saw floor being established I knew it was going to go up. The thing with daily is that you're going miss these kind of moves. But tomorrow I can always get in after the daily candle close. I feel like I'm missing out on trades when I'm on daily. Thats why I keep going back to lower TFs, so I keep reminding myself how I didn't make a dime on 1m for a year and a half. But I've made some on 1h and 4h since May this year. With daily the gain will be much larger, if you asked me if I could pocket 500pips a month from 1m, the answer is clear and loud I simply can't trade minute charts as well as some traders. That's the reality. So I tell myself you may have to wait for a bit for a setup and you might feel like you're missing out but at the end of the day if you do the daily right your gain will be much larger than if you were trading 1m charts.

Whats up with EUR weakness ?

This morning I went short on GBPAUD on 15min, if only had I kept it going. I'm fed up with this if only crap. After years of sweat and tears I think I can finally say that I've learnt to spot buy/sell areas but I have a commitment problem when it comes to maintaining those positioning seeing them through the levels and hit TF or SL.

Maybe this is just the process the usual trader goes through. But its really frustrating and disappointing to keep bailing out of trades when my timing was spot on so is the direction. I've been dealing with EUR and GBP with comm crosses as far as I can remember over 3 years ? and I've traded them on 15m with decent results back in the day. So I guess I'm going back what worked after all these years, after these failures and after all these experiments.

No more bullshitting with if I only I hadn't I promise.
I will keep this thread fun & professional from now on.

Tomorrow the new day begins. I will have to wake up an hour earlier and analyse the charts for asian session. This is work, this is what you wanted to do. Btw I will still look for trades on daily. But in the meantime why sit idle ? when there're plenty of opportunity on 15min ?

USDJPY long going entered yesterday morning UTC+8 6AM on daily

Comms have been at the top of the game for the last 2 weeks (almost)
EURAUD, GBPAUD, EURNZD, GBPNZD, EURCAD, GBPCAD have been on the slide.

On the other hand yen crosses have been climbing higher and higher. Since comms were leading the game AUDJPY, NZDJPY, CADJPY in particular gained hundreds of pips while EURJPY, GBPJPY and USDJPY left far behind the yen herd. Major yen crosses have finally been on the climb since last friday or thursday. Since the herd is climbing higher and higher I'm expecting major yen crosses to follow behind and hopefully catch up with the comm yen crosses.

USDJPY so far 80pips, 112 major resistance so at the moment its backing up a little (I used to close my trades at such junctures, now I'm trying real hard to keep it going unless there's a good reason I should close the trade) PA wise and other yen crosses tell me we've still got more room to go higher. Then again things could turnaround but we're on daily, and around here much like with 1m chart price just doesn't turn around without some notice. So far today a little backup is expected with major resistance just up ahead. We'll see how things turnaround tomorrow. Usually with daily entries its advised to hold it at least for 5 trading days. UJ has been only active for a day and half. So that's that.

UJ long out with +63pips +5.67$

111.80 -112 is proving to be a resilient area for bulls.

GJ is retracing back probably because of Carney, so is CADJPY I'm already seeing negative candle forming its an hour past 5pm here so we've got 12 more hours to go for the daily candle to complete. And if things aren't turned around I thought given the current scenario I'd close the trade so I did.

I wanted to go long on AUDCAD last night so bad.

Daily candle was halfway through the completion process, that meant we still had 12 more hours to go. That's a long time considering US session was just kicking in things could have turned around against me overnight.

I constantly have to fight with this kind of impulses + closing trades early. If you have found the method that works for you, the next hurdle is this. Well I'm glad I decided to wait it out since the daily candle hadn't completed. Here's where its at. Stick with your freaking rules. I'm glad I did.

Pound is weak across the board.
Euro is rising up against the comms

Yen crosses are finally seem to be getting on the slide. AUDJPY,NZDJPY and CADJPY
So is GBPJPY, EURJPY however UJ hasn't given up just yet.

USD seem to be gaining some ground.

What do I have ?

Uj long still looks good but since the rest of the yen herd seem to be going down the slide I'm a little wary.
USDCAD long looks good to be honest but its below the daily 200EMA (thats a tough resistance to break through) and only 37pips away from 200EMA is it worth the risk ?