The Really Useless Thread

trading edges only mostly.. i dont watch the inside moves as much.. lots of free time between..

1165 is a strong supply zone @4 hr and same tf have 100 ema at 1197. Made a rookie mistake and didnt close my shorts. Now hoping that 1197 provides strong R and price can start going down again. Eyeing 1120 / 1080 as tp.

We finally test the 1.116 today.
Close probably below 1.1205 (last big move with US employment 02/06) would show I think that bears are in control.

right up ya butt

USDx
Is well aligned for a breakout. USD bulls need 97.25 taken We got a up bar on weekly. Waiting Fomc Wednesday so will be interesting week. Strong expectation for rate hike.

Posting daily chart with weekly bar overlay . USDx in in a down channel and we are at the lower side of the channel.

hello

my view for what migh happen next

EURUSD - Bearish on all time frames > 1H
if we dont break 1.1302, then we head to 1.06x
if we break 1.1302, then next stop would become 1.173x

so basically what i find more likely is a massive bear

good blog...Global Macro Monitor

https://macromon.wordpress.com/2017/...to-the-nasdaq/
https://macromon.wordpress.com/2017/...overvaluation/

"Markets need a catalyst to regress back to long-term or overshoot their equilibrium valuations.......[or]...... the overvaluation will work off through time unless inflation really begins to pick up and the Fed has to accelerate the pace of balance sheet reduction......... Or it could be some type of geopolitical shock......"

So:

1) if nothing really changes, US equities will continue grinding up and
2) the upgrind could gain momentum if any of the Trump candy can be delivered to Wall Street
3) Not holding breath on the Fed turning the liquidity tide
4) Sure, duh, WWIII will make markets sell off (also return of Godzilla, Jesus, asteroid strikes, etc....)
5) in other words - btfd, sos

Ok..... Enough is enough of this garbage

Where is Gator? We need to make some damn money around here and Gator keep me grounded.


Please come back !!!!

Can Squid save the Clown Car?

http://www.businessinsider.com/debt-...nt-coin-2017-5

hi all hope all in green no time to post still doing the dam thing trading forex see u soon

I'm watching usdcad here for a potential long back to 1.36xx with FED on wednesday and OPEC holding oil in range .. here is my map

Where's cloggie,

long time no see did not see for a long time

no break no shake all up to May eye on 12540's for now

FoMc starting today. It's an important meeting with press conference and updating of the projection.
The last nfp was a bit disappointing but the unemployment rate has reached a new low at 4.3‰ that fhe first objective of fed which have reached for several months
(even if we can still discuss about the numbers and labor force declining...)
This second objectif is the inflation at 2% like ecb mandate. This one is the one that could prevent fed from hiking three times this year. And all the trump reforms that could boost the growth seem to be unlikely to be done.
So today we have a first leading indicator of inflation and tomorrow the officials one that could weigh on fed.
So what to expect tomorrow? Hike looks like a done deal I couldnot really imagine the Fed missing this opportunity even if last inflation numbers have been lower than expected.
There is also the start of tapering and fed reducing its balance sheet but how much by month?

To sum up three scenarios :
1 : no hike tomorrow but no change in dots so we would have a knee jerk reaction to 1.13 and then back to scenario 2

2 : hike, no change in dots and confirming that for the qe they stop reinvesting. That will confirm the path of slow normalization but will support a dollar strength. Markets do not really price the third hike. I think we get direct play to 1.11 and 1.094 could be the final target of this leg.

3 : hawkish hike + a fourth hike projected +stop reinvesting a big amount not easy to calibrate what amount could surprise the market. I would say 50b used well that a direct play to 1.086 then 1.066

Scenario 3 is the least likely to happen. Scenario 1 has a few chances my central scenario is the second one. The situation.is a bit the same than ecb last week with inflation number disappointing that prevent fed from hiking to fastly. But even a slow normalization process shoud reinforce usd strength and could lead usdeur lower.

Whats your views guys?

landre