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  • #61
  • Jun 11, 2017 8:31pm Jun 11, 2017 8:31pm
Good Cliffy, That is really good.

I will post my simple technical analysis, if i were to go beyond the Strategy i am currently concentrating on for this thread. I do not like to deviate but i will just to get my point across, in a simple way...As i want to and would love to keep things simple.

The asset of choice due to Tuesdays expected news events will be GBP/JPY

Just as an example.


Do not use this illustration as a signal or advice for trading. I will not be held responsible for your actions.

Here goes my way of looking at things simple in trading. The price either respects the support or breaks the level. If it were to respect the level and remain above we would look for a long entry signal. While the opposite situation is also true, if it were to break and close below the level of support i would look for a short signal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpJpy Weekly Analysis.png Size: 128 KB
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  • #62
  • Jun 11, 2017 8:54pm Jun 11, 2017 8:54pm
For the Strategy i will still use GbpJpy, lets say this was Monday evening Est, which would be Japans Morning -Asian session.

I repeat i like to keep things simple, however due to the fact that i have placed pivot points on the thread, i will show you things through my simple thought process.

If price should remain below the daily pivot we should be looking to trade lower for that day. For a weekly outlook it has been trading below the weekly pivot due to the past events, political and economical events. Such as bombing, shootings, Election etc.


The simple way is just to place both orders with stop-loss attached as indicated in the illustration. I hope this helps someone, those who are still trying to figure out visually what i look for...

Remember this is just an example.

In this case for visual purposes the ASIAN SESSION-NAVY, LONDON- DARK VIOLET AND NEW YORK-TAN in Colour.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpJpy Simple and Complex Analysis.png Size: 112 KB
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  • #63
  • Jun 11, 2017 9:06pm Jun 11, 2017 9:06pm
Quoting fanatics
Earlier you mentioned that you place your orders 3 hours before London opens. So in this case, not the entire Asian range is considered. Or should you place your orders at London open?
London open would have been too late for me, that is my 2/3am and i would be sleeping, so usually the range is usually maintain for the couples hours left in the session, once a range is established. This is like a lion hunting, he has to stay low while he is stalking his prey, if he roars or making any sounds before the prey will run and likely get away.
So in order to not be affected by spread and broker keeping me from entering a position i would place the order before hand, this is why the buffer works well for me in this case, as price has the room to move up or down 10-15 pips without triggering my order. I hope this helps you and others.

N.b. sometimes price moves so quickly across the pairs it would be hard to place the right pending orders and stop-losses so quickly at market open.
If you are able to be up you can place your orders even 1 hour before the market opens.
R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #64
  • Edited 11:11pm Jun 11, 2017 10:55pm | Edited 11:11pm
Quoting PrinceJ58
For the Strategy i will still use GbpJpy, lets say this was Monday evening Est, which would be Japans Morning -Asian session. I repeat i like to keep things simple, however due to the fact that i have placed pivot points on the thread, i will show you things through my simple thought process. If price should remain below the daily pivot we should be looking to trade lower for that day. For a weekly outlook it has been trading below the weekly pivot due to the past events, political and economical events. Such as bombing, shootings, Election etc....
Sorry for more questions again. Was studying your chart and I have the following questions:

 

  1. Your buystop is only 10pips above the high and not 15pips?
  2. The sessions indicator doesn't seem to take into account the first candle? This seems to be a bug of the indicator? As a result, your low for the range is like 10pips higher than what it should be?
  3. Right now, the range has increased compared to when you posted. So the stop orders levels would be quite different from yours, depending on the time when the orders are placed. This would probably result in pretty much different outcomes I think.
  4. So you do not trade if there are no red news events for the day?

  • #65
  • Jun 11, 2017 11:22pm Jun 11, 2017 11:22pm
Quoting fanatics
{quote} Sorry for more questions again. Was studying your chart and I have the following questions: Your buystop is only 10pips above the high and not 15pips? The sessions indicator doesn't seem to take into account the first candle? This seems to be a bug of the indicator? As a result, your low for the range is like 10pips higher than what it should be? Right now, the range has increased compared to when you posted. So the stop orders levels would be quite different from yours, depending on the time when the orders are placed. This would probably...
I would say that was an error on my part where notations were being made on the chart photo, however the pending order as i have stated can be between 10-15 pips away from the range, so 10 pips in that situation should there be a valid setup at the time, in such a case it would have been perfect for placing orders.

Anyways it is time for you to look for setups at this time-which is now. Practice to set them 10 pips away and 15 pips away and wait until probably an hour prior to US session open to view the results.


PRACTICE PRACTICE...Forget about the fears and go ahead and place the orders on the tight ranges, drag and drop the assets from the market watch to your charts to see which asset is ranging and place both buy and sell stop orders on your demo account of course.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Just Place the Orders.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 10 pips.png Size: 36 KB
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  • #66
  • Jun 12, 2017 5:32am Jun 12, 2017 5:32am
Quoting CliffyC
{quote} Agreeing with okshop's and princej58's volatility and momentum principles, I have special attention towards yen and chf this week.
You are correct...:-P
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  • #67
  • Jun 12, 2017 5:35am Jun 12, 2017 5:35am
Greetings to one and all, those reading and not yet a member of FF please join so you can participate.
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  • #68
  • Jun 12, 2017 5:47am Jun 12, 2017 5:47am
Quoting PrinceJ58
Greetings to one and all, those reading and not yet a member of FF please join so you can participate.
Some random thoughts about sentiment and the upcoming fomc statement and boj press conference thingy - I'm thiking of a Long aud/jpy and long aud/chf (looking at safer assets to price in)
personally, I haven't mastered to trade the emotional volatility for fomc statement.

random - aud/chf (reason - two bars down, two bars up) daily tf
random - aud/jpy (reason - entirely waiting on a pull back) daily tf
these two are my thoughts because of this week's events.

back to reading
  • #69
  • Jun 12, 2017 5:50am Jun 12, 2017 5:50am
Quoting PrinceJ58
{quote} I would say that was an error on my part where notations were being made on the chart photo, however the pending order as i have stated can be between 10-15 pips away from the range, so 10 pips in that situation should there be a valid setup at the time, in such a case it would have been perfect for placing orders. Anyways it is time for you to look for setups at this time-which is now. Practice to set them 10 pips away and 15 pips away and wait until probably an hour prior to US session open to view the results. PRACTICE PRACTICE...Forget...
Tried trading the markets on demo. Got triggered on short for USDJPY, CADJPY, EURJPY, NZDCHF. All four orders are in negative territory. Did i get the orders right?
  • #70
  • Jun 12, 2017 6:51am Jun 12, 2017 6:51am
[quote=CliffyC;9968360]{quote} Some random thoughts about sentiment and the upcoming fomc statement and boj press conference thingy - I'm thiking of a Long aud/jpy and long aud/chf (looking at safer assets to price in) personally, I haven't mastered to trade the emotional volatility for fomc statement. random - aud/chf (reason - two bars down, two bars up) daily tf random - aud/jpy (reason - entirely waiting on a pull back) daily tf these two are my thoughts because of this week's events. back to reading


Thats rather interesting CliffyC, i look forward to a picture of your chart and the analysis based on your bias. Whether it materializes or not it is just a probability. ;-).

Cheers!
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  • #71
  • Edited 8:28am Jun 12, 2017 7:00am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting fanatics
{quote} Tried trading the markets on demo. Got triggered on short for USDJPY, CADJPY, EURJPY, NZDCHF. All four orders are in negative territory. Did i get the orders right?
Give it some time my friend... let it ride, i think i am in the same ones except the chf. I dont like the spread.
The last time i checked the gbpjpy it was about 78 pips in profits, hmm thats +28 of what is really aimed for by my original goal, however they say let go your losers and let the winners run.
Whenever the spread is close to the orders open rate you will see what seems to be a negative, thats the brokers fee for generating the transaction on your behalf, so give it some time to settle in, let it ride. For 6 assets based on a 50 pip aim how hard would it be to see 300 pips from these 6 assets if they have a high adr.;-)
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  • #72
  • Jun 12, 2017 7:10am Jun 12, 2017 7:10am
Quoting PrinceJ58
{quote} Just give it some time my friend... let it ride, i think i am in the same ones except the chf. I dont like the spread.
Ok cool. Glad that we are in the same positions.
  • #73
  • Jun 12, 2017 7:52am Jun 12, 2017 7:52am
Fanatics just to show you a chart example.
You can use any tool to get to the same outcome, it all depends on you and what you are looking for, you create your own rules.

On the picture we have:

  1. Fibonacci,
  2. Asia open-close indi,
  3. Pivots
  4. Daily Open Indi
  5. and a range indi-testing (Don't know how it works really)

So it does not matter how you trade
What you use to trade as long as there is consistency.
We should learn from our mistakes more than we learn from our success.

It does not feel good when we fail but the most important aspect of the journey is what we do after we fail.

First
Attempt
In
Learning

Cheers!Keep at it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp Entry Illustration.png Size: 44 KB
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  • #74
  • Jun 12, 2017 9:27am Jun 12, 2017 9:27am
Channels, Naked or indicator based trading you choose. In this chart illustration you will see where price moves in channels, either being rejected or breaking levels. Most times from a long term perspective, price will respect these zones well. This is a sneak peak to my other style of viewing the markets.
Whether this is considered right or wrong it works for me.
I would love if others share their charts or concerns, otherwise i will lay low, remain invisible. Probably a good idea...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY respecting the levels.png Size: 39 KB
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  • #75
  • Jun 12, 2017 10:40am Jun 12, 2017 10:40am
Quoting PrinceJ58
Channels, Naked or indicator based trading you choose. In this chart illustration you will see where price moves in channels, either being rejected or breaking levels. Most times from a long term perspective, price will respect these zones well. This is a sneak peak to my other style of viewing the markets. Whether this is considered right or wrong it works for me. I would love if others share their charts or concerns, otherwise i will lay low, remain invisible. Probably a good idea... {image} {image}
I'm interested to learn how you take profit from your positions. I had a loss on EURUSD earlier (a long position). Currently, the rest of the positions are turning into positive. Some are nearing take profit price which I set as RR = 1. Do u take profit as a basket of trades? Or let individual positions take profit based on your RR? Do you hold your positions overnight?
  • #76
  • Jun 12, 2017 11:43am Jun 12, 2017 11:43am
Quoting fanatics
{quote} I'm interested to learn how you take profit from your positions. I had a loss on EURUSD earlier (a long position). Currently, the rest of the positions are turning into positive. Some are nearing take profit price which I set as RR = 1. Do u take profit as a basket of trades? Or let individual positions take profit based on your RR? Do you hold your positions overnight?
Ok Fanatics, you have been asking some great questions, keep them coming.
The idea is that you either aim for 2:1 or more, you can move your stop-loss to this level of 2:1 after the last retracement near to that level.
For e.g. If i should evaluate all pairs that are currently open, whichever side that is triggered first i let it stay and close the opposing pending orders.

When i evaluate on the longer term charts like the 4hr to weekly, the price action on these timeframes will tell me whether or not it was a retracement trade or a breakout in the trend direction.

Retracement trade-Close-Short term trade
Breakout in trend direction- I would let it ride-medium to long-term trend

Take Profit-Closing Trades-Trade Management

Closing individual trades- works best if the price action is suggesting that the trend may likely change or you are satisfied with the current profits...
Managing- the stop-loss maybe place at the level where you feel most comfortable, should price retrace beyond that level (Previous tested resistance or support).
Closing as basket-Is an option when you are strict about your daily targets, especially for the fact that opportunities
present themselves everyday.
To comment on the Eurusd & Audusd- I am still negative on the two (2) pairs-Not sure what the outcome will likely be due to the pending US based data's to be released.
Canadian data to be released right after.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: half the target with one pair.png Size: 86 KB
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  • #77
  • Jun 12, 2017 12:36pm Jun 12, 2017 12:36pm
Quoting PrinceJ58
{quote} Ok Fanatics, you have been asking some great questions, keep them coming. The idea is that you either aim for 2:1 or more, you can move your stop-loss to this level of 2:1 after the last retracement near to that level. For e.g. If i should evaluate all pairs that are currently open, whichever side that is triggered first i let it stay and close the opposing pending orders. When i evaluate on the longer term charts like the 4hr to weekly, the price action on these timeframes will tell me whether or not it was a retracement trade or a breakout...
It's pretty amazing that just awhile ago when I posted, I was positive for the day. I shifted the take profit of my orders that were near to individual take profit levels, wanting to do a basket take profit. But right now, the basket take profit was not reached and ended up as pretty negative for the day (CAD had a significant move due to and orange news). I wonder what should be the best trade management technique to take.
  • #78
  • Jun 12, 2017 1:45pm Jun 12, 2017 1:45pm
Quoting fanatics
{quote} It's pretty amazing that just awhile ago when I posted, I was positive for the day. I shifted the take profit of my orders that were near to individual take profit levels, wanting to do a basket take profit. But right now, the basket take profit was not reached and ended up as pretty negative for the day (CAD had a significant move due to and orange news). I wonder what should be the best trade management technique to take.

I had gotten stopped out at a little over break-even...If i had not deleted the opposite order it would have been triggered to be in profits instantly, however i was going on the road, so chose to be safe than sorry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cad News Hints.png Size: 73 KB
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  • #79
  • Jun 12, 2017 4:29pm Jun 12, 2017 4:29pm
I was unable to be around my charts to properly manage my trades, i had to do a quick errand on the road. I had place all assets with stoploss above break-even, due to carrying trades into U.S. session. Under normal circumstances i would have closed all trades win or loss prior to open of the U.S. Session. However after data release of USD and Cad news the market started to move as a high impact news would have done for the market Aud started coming back towards breakeven as for the eurusd it remained out on a negative 18 to 25 pips region.

 

  1. Gbpusd -Sell- Furthest 80 Pips currently at 56 pips
  2. Gbpjpy- Sell-Furthest 163 Pips Currently at 112 Pips
  3. UsdJpy- Sell-Furthest 40 Pips Close out at 7.50 pips
  4. Eurjpy-Sell-Furthest 54 Pips Closed at 10.6 pips
  5. Audusd-Buy-furthest in negative was-20 Pips at present negative 5 Pips
  6. Eurusd-Buy-furthest in negative was-30 Pips at present negative 19 Pips
  7. Cadjpy-Sell- went into profit for 39 pips and got closed at 2 pips
  8. AudJpy-Sell-Went into profit for 24 pips and got closed at 1.5 pips
  9. NzdJpy-Sell-Went into Profit for 25 pips and got closed at 2.5 pips


Overall Profit would have been 300 pips with a surplus of 26 Pips. This goes to show that it is best to either take profit when target is met or place stoploss above target.

What would be good as Fanatics had mentioned about closing trades, is that a basket monitor, would work well to monitor the account in order to close the trades when the 300 pips target is met, or place stoploss at that level as a equity protection measure.
The original Concept was to take the best/most ideal 6 trades for a target of 300 pips which would have been met today once more. Nevertheless nine trades were taken and the goal would have been met easily, especially by the gbp pairs.

Today has been a good day for me...

Questions for You

  1. I want to hear from those who tested the system?
  2. What was the experience like?
  3. If you were to adjust anything what would it be and why?

R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #80
  • Jun 12, 2017 7:45pm Jun 12, 2017 7:45pm
Quoting PrinceJ58
I was unable to be around my charts to properly manage my trades, i had to do a quick errand on the road. I had place all assets with stoploss above break-even, due to carrying trades into U.S. session. Under normal circumstances i would have closed all trades win or loss prior to open of the U.S. Session. However after data release of USD and Cad news the market started to move as a high impact news would have done for the market Aud started coming back towards breakeven as for the eurusd it remained out on a negative 18 to 25 pips region. Gbpusd...
Ok sounds like you had a great day!
I re-read your post on how you trade and realised I had some misinterpretation. Can I clarify that you look for a range ONLY between 7pm to 11pm your time? You ignore candles outside those time? Then you place your orders and that's it!
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