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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #24,241
  • Jun 10, 2017 8:18am Jun 10, 2017 8:18am
May's chief of staff quits as Tories warn of leadership challenge... I'm expecting a gap down, more uncertainty as things unwind over the weekend.... at least a drop to 137.60 as I look at the daily charts and fib 161.80. In this political climate how can it go up?

Don't know if i'm grasping at straws but this is what you do when you have open trades on the weekend, you look for anything to support it's completion... lol All I need is 138.69
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #24,242
  • Edited 3:20pm Jun 10, 2017 1:09pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting Quickiepip
In this political climate how can it go up?
Well, you know what they say: "trade the market not your opinions".

In fact, if the trader strongly believes that the market should go up, he should look at the chart again and find at least two good reasons why it should go down instead!

Trading this way is a great way to keep him/her emotionally detached from the outcome of any particular trade and remove any personal (and potentially dangerous) bias from the equation.

Fortunes have been lost because traders stubbornly believed that the market should do this or that.
  • #24,243
  • Jun 10, 2017 5:03pm Jun 10, 2017 5:03pm
I never trade emotion... I set up the trade according to the parameters .. and it should head down if not... plan D is to take a final trade back up to recover all losses. 4 recovery trades only happens once maybe twice for a year based on my 150 pip range, meaning from the lowest low or the highest high gbpjpy will only do the 150pip range 3-4 times before breaking out one way or the other. I'm just worried if it goes up takes my fourth trade and then doesn't run to completion.

I know you have to trust in your method, but I wasn't looking to be to trade 3 so fast.... I could take the long but the daily chart points down for me. This drop was election based not technical analysis based but actually if fit correctly into the charts,I was looking down not the 148.00 projected with a May win.

I'm just struggling with my own method, it says get ready to take a 4th trade long... I don't see that in the charts which bothers me. I post my results so you can see by start next week of how it went for me....lol

Good luck to all may green pips line your pockets
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #24,244
  • Edited 7:49pm Jun 11, 2017 2:13pm | Edited 7:49pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} On the 4h chart we have 5 inside candles in a row and a nice hammer, a sign that the down move has run out of steam... {image}
Good observations, Mr. B.

I don't assign much value to 4-Hour chart hammers and dojis. They can show up on one person's chart but not another's, because the start / end times vary by broker.

It also seems to me that the inside candles, this time, are mostly attributable to the extra long 4H candle theyre being compared to. That was a very sudden down move. Interesting how your 4H candle shows a gap but mine doesn't ... probably another broker thing.

But I wouldn't be surprised if the downward swing within the channel is finished for now. Its near the lower trend line and its been bouncing off that area for weeks. It would be perfectly in character for it to swing back up again. If it wasnt for the political events in the UK, that's the way I would trade it. As it is, I'm on the sidelines.

Will Fridays pound selloff continue this week? Or will there be a tradeable retrace first? Or even a change of mid-term trend to the bullish side, if the market decides things are now positive for the UK?

Anything could happen. Opening price and early price action might give us some good clues.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,245
  • Jun 11, 2017 2:41pm Jun 11, 2017 2:41pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Opening price and early price action might give us some good clues.
Well, so far we have a 50 pip down gap (bid).

A hundred bucks this baby is going to fill the gap before 8 PM (NY time)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,246
  • Jun 11, 2017 2:56pm Jun 11, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
{quote} Well, so far we have a 50 pip down gap (bid). A hundred bucks this baby is going to fill the gap before 8 PM (NY time)... {image}
I was just about to post that ... gap is 40 pips down from the close...lol still an hour to go... it may go lower still... or it might fill the gap.. we'll see lol there might be no gap by open.

just wanted to add it's at the 23.6 daily fib line after a bounce at 61.8.... hopefully we see 161.8(137.61)
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #24,247
  • Jun 11, 2017 4:10pm Jun 11, 2017 4:10pm
Quoting Mr Breakout
A hundred bucks this baby is going to fill the gap before 8 PM (NY time)...
Gap has been filled.

Now, is it also going to fill the other gap, the big one? ...

JPY Machine Orders report (7:30 PM New York time) is next.
  • #24,248
  • Jun 11, 2017 5:09pm Jun 11, 2017 5:09pm
Alright, most probable scenario for GBP/JPY this week: it is going to drop below the low of the previous week at 139.50, just to trigger stop orders from short sellers betting on the breakout, then it will go up to 142.35 and fill the gap, and THEN it will drop like a stone again.

Yep yep yep, that's it, that's its plan right there...
  • #24,249
  • Jun 11, 2017 7:20pm Jun 11, 2017 7:20pm
--- Due to recent political results in UK, all fundamentals are commenting that we can expect more bears in the woods for week ahead. Well see.



=====
  • #24,250
  • Jun 11, 2017 11:55pm Jun 11, 2017 11:55pm
If it breaks higher than Fridays candle then maybe we have a push towards 148... below Fridays candle then 136.... but even with the election results the currency is exactly where it should be and staying in step we should see it dropping, not because of emotion, not because of election, but because it should according to the charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-w1-international-capital-markets-2.png Size: 29 KB
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #24,251
  • Jun 12, 2017 12:32am Jun 12, 2017 12:32am
Quoting Quickiepip
If it breaks higher than Fridays candle then maybe we have a push towards 148... below Fridays candle then 136.... but even with the election results the currency is exactly where it should be and staying in step we should see it dropping, not because of emotion, not because of election, but because it should according to the charts. {image}
You have an interesting analysis.

Here I am hoping it goes to 148.
  • #24,252
  • Jun 12, 2017 1:01am Jun 12, 2017 1:01am
Quoting raphaelfx
{quote} You have an interesting analysis. Here I am hoping it goes to 148.
I can see why... I hope it goes up for you too... but you've been doing very well... I should be going long at 141.14....tp 142.15 my only problem is if the currency turns around and goes back down I blowout.. even though my strategy says long is the way to go...i've vetoed that... The daily is in a channel coming down it's too close to call... will I get 142.15 ? I think it will get close then turn around before I tp
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-d1-international-capital-markets.png Size: 36 KB
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #24,253
  • Jun 12, 2017 1:21am Jun 12, 2017 1:21am
Quoting Quickiepip
{quote} I can see why... I hope it goes up for you too... but you've been doing very well... I should be going long at 141.14....tp 142.15 my only problem is if the currency turns around and goes back down I blowout.. even though my strategy says long is the way to go...i've vetoed that... The daily is in a channel coming down it's too close to call... will I get 142.15 ? I think it will get close then turn around before I tp {image}
If you do go long at 141.14, and then it reaches 142.15, I think at that point it won't ever even get near to 141.14 again. The momentum going up should be strong by then.

Therefore I think if you're in, you should hold until 148. Go big or go home. Why not set a break even SL instead once it reaches 142?

Here's the problem of you exiting at 142.15, be prepared to live with regret and seeing the move all the way up to 148 without doing nothing. Here's where the danger is. Do not try to jump in at 143, 144, 145, etc.. because you feel you're missing out and now you want it to ride it again. Those re entries can be dangerous if not timed properly.
  • #24,254
  • Jun 12, 2017 1:34am Jun 12, 2017 1:34am
I see range atm.....
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trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #24,255
  • Jun 12, 2017 1:40am Jun 12, 2017 1:40am
Quoting ZenNy
I see range atm..... {image}
she broke.....lets see...
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #24,256
  • Jun 12, 2017 1:48am Jun 12, 2017 1:48am
Hourly trend line break. Short.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #24,257
  • Jun 12, 2017 1:49am Jun 12, 2017 1:49am
Quoting raphaelfx
{quote} If you do go long at 141.14, and then it reaches 142.15, I think at that point it won't ever even get near to 141.14 again. The momentum going up should be strong by then. Therefore I think if you're in, you should hold until 148. Go big or go home. Why not set a break even SL instead once it reaches 142? Here's the problem of you exiting at 142.15, be prepared to live with regret and seeing the move all the way up to 148 without doing nothing. Here's where the danger is. Do not try to jump in at 143, 144, 145, etc.. because you feel you're...
Actually I do have a ts not a tp 7 13 but once it hits the next trade is activated with ts 7 13..... so i pretty much catch all the pips going up....unless it goes back 150 then my recover trade is activated exit 100 pip ts 7 13
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #24,258
  • Jun 12, 2017 2:39am Jun 12, 2017 2:39am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} she broke.....lets see...
short at 508
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #24,259
  • Jun 12, 2017 3:08am Jun 12, 2017 3:08am
Quoting ZenNy
{quote} short at 508
\

close 302, SL was at 608......
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
  • #24,260
  • Jun 12, 2017 3:32am Jun 12, 2017 3:32am
great move down....see if I can get back in.....
trading is simple but is simple is not easy.
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