The SETUP and the Chuvashova Fork

USDJPY H1

I took a profit at what could be U. If it now retreats back below E I will place a pending buy order for a second pass through E.

If you aren't making mistakes you are not learning anything.

I have a busy few days coming up, so I may be here less.

Now that I have been showing SETUP an TE lines for a while, let's look at some of the bigger picture analysis.

Start at a HTF such as H4 and work your way into the LTF structure.

Here is an example where I used the H4 and did the HTF T E Line and discovered an H4 E line. From there it is easy enough to get inside that H4 SETUP and hunt P.



Note some special point of interest. Touches on the H4 T E line at 1 2 3 4 where it breaks.
The H4 T E line doubles as a C Fork.
There is a bearish M1 SETUP at T H4. (You have to go down to M1 to find it.)
There is a M1 bearish SETUP at P H4 (You have to go down to M1 to find it.)
The M15 E line is shown. Also of use.

Then we get the Fib retrace from H4 T - U - P back to the Sweet Spot.
And look at how the Fib target at 127 was hit EXACTLY!

Some accounts were certainly wiped out with that 255 pip move.

For people who say that the market is random and unpredictable, they can keep saying it.

Homework:

Try a similar exercise on the EURUSD and see what your conclusions are.
There is a M5 SETUP that is looking interesting.
The HTF E lines are giving clues about its 161.8 target.
Watch for the touches and bounces off HTF trend Lines and search out the SETUPS at those points.

I will publish my EURUSD chart tomorrow some time and you can see how yours compares.

Unlike Elliott Wave, if we all take the same SETUP and T E lines approach, we should all get the same conclusion.

Hi Wab,

Is funny you are mentioning accounts being wiped only this time, and you did not mention it before.
The thing is it happened to me Thursday evening, the only time ever

I wanted to do a quick scalp Long on GJ but was very tired and fell asleep before having a chance to put stop loss, although I intended to do it.
The price was going my way, up, and I was waiting to put the SL at BE and leave it. And then fell asleep.
When I woke up was after midnight, price was already down 233 pips from where I left it and my account was negative. Bad luck!

Thanks for the analysis. You are an inspiration for everybody!

Best regards,
Dragos

[quote=dragos_;9965601]{quote} Hi Wab, Is funny you are mentioning accounts being wiped only this time, and you did not mention it before. The thing is it happened to me Thursday evening, the only time ever I wanted to do a quick scalp Long on GJ but was very tired and fell asleep before having a chance to put stop loss, although I intended to do it. The price was going my way, up, and I was waiting to put the SL at BE and leave it. And then fell asleep. When I woke up was after midnight, price was already down 233 pips from where I left it and my account was negative. Bad luck! Thanks for the analysis. You are an inspiration for everybody! Best regards, Dragos[/quote

We have mostly all been there Dragos. If you do your SETUP work and maintain good stops it should help avoid those times.

Here is my EURUSD H1



And the M5



With a zoom in on the M5.



Note where the M5 161.8 Fib target is located ... right where the M15 and H1 T E Lines intersect.

Try and do this exercise on any pair that you are thinking of trading. It sure helps to know where the T E lines are and where the bigger SETUPs are. After all the market reacts to them and you must try to be in phase.

And look where it went:

Hi Wab,
I have read this thread from the start. I have found the information here very useful. A big thankyou for the thread.
It is also great to see somebody post live trades.

Thanks.

Thanks Rog. Feedback much appreciated.

Have you considered filtering SETUPs with Alligator?
I'm trading a similar pattern, except my "E-line" is the first fractal to be broken outside Alligator and there is a T-type point between T and U (let's call it T junior) and T junior - U move's midpoint should be beyond "E-line". I'm using a strong directional bar for entry, which may or may not confirm a P-like fractal.
You can use Bill William's own filters to enter within fractals - a suitable fractal needs both LL and LH (both HH and HL for a top respectively) on first three bars fourth or fifth bar needs to engulf the second, or something like that.
I'm more interested on thoughts about Chuvashov's Fork though.

Maybe post a chart or two Kypa. I do use the first fractal above the red Alligator line. AS for forks. I use my stye of C Fork (as you say off a smaller hh hl ll lh count inside a CT.) or the TE Fork.

Chuvashova Forks are still in the realm of study.

Please join in with your charts so that we can learn from them. Any Bill Williams stuff is usually the best.

Hi Wab and all,

I've finished catching up on the thread, I'm at work so no charts of my lousy trades, maybe tonight when I'm back at my charts I'll be able to post some but with my dog waking me up every 30-70 minutes at night I'm so tired I'm catching as much sleep as I can this days.

While I would like to put the entire blame on my dog and my sleep deprivation, even half asleep I should know better. I'm not disciplined enough, yet, or maybe never
I always try to hunt the earliest possible entry only to end up having the price reverse on my trades and my profits gone. I'll have to work on that, any help on how to achieve that would be great.

so, on to my questions.

===
Selling at the Chuvashov or the CF means we are trading towards U, right? So we should either put a tight SL or TP or let it go, incur the wrath of the P DD, hoping it would not exceed T and go our way.
Why would we want to do that? I mean, I understand the temptation of the earlier entry (and it's bite) but why not aim for P instead or at least take the E trade when price comes back to it?
===

===
Speaking of Chuvashov's fork, this fork needs three fractals to complete and made valid, more often than not, once a valid fork has been formed, another, opposite fork will form as well, and while we're near an interesting area (S or E, for example) it might give us more validation to the formation we are looking for (SETUP) but only after the formation is starting to form, this, at least for me from my own observation, can be applied after we have identified a start of a valid SETUP formation and not use the fork to hunt for one.
It's a great tool in some cases but lacking in every aspect in other cases (trend line breakouts, anyone?)
I prefer your version of the Fork, Wab.
===

===
Impulse waves? Corrective waves? What? I vaguely recall you saying you'd explain it sometime
I still don't know how to use the AO or the AC indicators in relation to the SETUP.
===

===
Continuation SETUP?! And here I am struggling with the "regular" reverse SETUP. I'm not sure when to apply each now, not to mention false breakouts.
When do I know if we're in a CT or a continued trend? Most of the time, I get this wrong.
===

===
In post 160, the S is not a LL, it's a bit higher from the fractal to its left, so for me the E would be the LH before the S marked on your chart so the U never broke the E and if it did and went all that way up, I'm not sure it would not mean the end of the CT.
Could you please revisit this chart, please?
===

===
In post 159, I would have gone for the first E and persuade myself it's only temporary and everything will go back down and eventually bail out of the trade.
Can this kind of things be minimize, at least a bit? Is there a way of identifying those "corrective" moves/waves?
===

===
In post 173, we have a P which is nearly at T, you said once that with these kind of setups, it is not likely to go where we want it to go, but price went down again and BAM! Up again. But it's still valid for short, no? Also the black SETUP looks like the U is lower than the E but I might be wrong. Also, is this the end of the correction or maybe just a blimp and price will go down again? How do we know? Do we guess? Of course, if price breaks the T it's a huge hint but by than I would have been invested in a short trade.
===


I think this is it for now, I'm gonna fire up MT4 on my cellular and hope that the current status of my trades will reverse.



Thanks again for the great thread, Wab. Going to look up the BWF over at the AF thread, in which, if memory serves me right, you explained it in more details than in this thread

Hello Rea. Nice to hear from you.

I have been trying to merge my thinking here with Renko and that has kept me busy. It is also summer in B.C. (finally) and I am taking advantage of the outdoors and hot weather so I am on line less often.

I have been thinking of making some videos to help with this thread. It is difficult and time consuming to explain a lot of this and maybe a series of videos will be better. So I have been looking at various video options that allow me to record my MT4 chart for illustrations and commentary.

I hope to be able to clarify things that are complex to explain in writing and illustrate the top down bottom up approach that SETUP enables. With Video I will be able to go back and answer questions more easily on any chart that has the time period and date available.

Stay tuned for my first efforts ... coming soon.

Well I have made progress with a video. Now to figure out how to post it.

You can only post very short ones on FF but perhaps I will try YouTube and see how that goes.

Next to set up a YouTube account.

If anyone has expertise in this area jump in ... I can use an experienced advisor.

I also don't want to violate any FF rules. I am not going commercial so that shouldn't be an issue.

Video Test.



Let me know what you think. I will add sound on the next one ... once I figure that out.

Hi Wab.
The good and free option is Screen Recorder - https://sourceforge.net/projects/scr...urce=directory

BTW thank you for your lessons

I am using Icecream Screen Recorder. It works nicely, except I cannot get the audio to work. Any expertise is welcome.

Try iSpring

All right! I got it all working! (A very fussy microphone setting.) My computer thought that my mic was in two different jacks and was ignoring both of them.)

I will be away from the net for a few days. When I get back, I hope to explain a lot of things that are just too cumbersome to explain in written text. I hope that being to make a video now and then will be better for answering questions and, time permitting, recording actual trades.

Trading is a solitary occupation and as for Forex Trading ... as far as I know I am the only one in my area who indulges in such a thing. So it will be good to liven things up. share thoughts and so on. Thanks to all who contribute here and to FF for a great platform to share from.

Thanks a lot Wab, you truly deserve your red diamond I have been following the thread and hopefully soon I will start contributing to it.

Thanks Caleb.

The video stuff is coming along nicely now. I recorded a live trade this morning.

I am away until Thursday so have fun figuring it all out.