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The Rabbit Hole

  • #4,641
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:15am Jun 9, 2017 5:15am
Quoting jen101
{quote} That and Corbyn's money tree. I would imagine the civil service would all vote Labour, as anyone on benefits, students, immigrants and Muslims... oh dear, that is most of the country now.

I feel a little depressed today! What does this mean in the bigger picture of things now? What are the options? I am shaking my head about May. Where was the ground game leading up to this election? What a mess!
  • #4,642
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:17am Jun 9, 2017 5:17am
Quoting nbfx
{quote} I know I did.

Yikes! Lay low! They will be after you with veggies!
  • #4,643
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:18am Jun 9, 2017 5:18am
Quoting DrManhatten
{quote} You could be right! Then again this could be a good thing, but the bench is thin for finding a true leader who will stick up and believe in the cause of BREXIT. What does this mean in the long term? A new Prime Minister will be elected? If Parliament is hung, who wins? Going forward???
The Conservatives got the most votes and the most seats (318 but needed 326 for an overall majority) , makes life difficult but not impossible. They could do a deal with NI's DUP which would give them 328, but a deal would have to be struck. May can remain as PM unless ousted by the Conservatives, but it would still be a Conservative PM
  • #4,644
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:19am Jun 9, 2017 5:19am
Quoting Magog
{quote} Feels like we been stitched up - Wonder if this was the plan all along?
Maybe but executing a plan like that is a very subtle thing indeed. Not impossible.

Quoting jen101
{quote} I have long voiced my distrust of May. It doesn't make sense - I don't believe she is stupid and that elderly care thing was suicidal.
Yeah - Sir Humphrey Appleby would call it courageous. Alienating grey vote and their beneficiaries might not be too smart.


In order to have pulled off a plan like this tho, Teresa May would have needed (not to mention those around her) to have been a consummate actress exhibiting great skill and an excess of guile that goes far beyond that routinely employed by your average politician. I don't think she's clever enough or skillful enough for that, but the advisors in the shadows? Could she be the patsy?

Just a thought...
  • #4,645
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:21am Jun 9, 2017 5:21am
Quoting jen101
{quote} I never "gave up" on fundies, just never got it, lol. That's the bit I didn't get, why price would do the opposite of what you would expect. No, never hedge, just set and forget mostly. Don't trade much, usually only about 1-2 a week. The setup has to slap me in the face.
Fundies are more useful in stocks.

In currencies there are some truths but they are mostly overcome by local market movement, such as when the UK pays for imported LNG. The main fundy that seems ineffective is that the Eurozone runs a perpetual massive trade surplus. Is that affecting the value of the Euro...? So there must be other (quieter) flows which are driving price ... a bit like the capital exodus from China which is driving down the Yuan to the great irk of the USA.

The most standout example of making money out of fundies was when Abe introduced Abenomics. I and Soros and most traders went long UJ and made a healthy profit. There are a few other examples but mostly daily volumes surrounding bill-paying drive price; and sentiment is by far the strongest force in the market.

Quoting jen101
Noooooooooo!! Just woke up and saw the headlines. Hope no one stayed up all night. Oh shit, what now?
When I went to bed last night I messaged my son that GBP would crash if the Tories flunked .... one day when I didn't want to be correct!
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #4,646
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:22am Jun 9, 2017 5:22am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} I've never been comfortable with May at the helm. The real establishment don't want Brexit, no matter what illusions we are given I seriously think this election outcome shows that both parties are controlled by a larger force. That kind of messes with the one big happy global family agenda
i am not a conspiracy theory type of guy but their has to be some kind of conspiracy going on May can not be this stupid dementia tax killing foxes and talking about scrapping certain human rights not showing up to debates this is not a winning formula Corbyn was completely unchallenged all she really had to do was highlight he's weak points like the fact his manifesto didn't add up financially or the piss weak Brexit he would gave us or the fact he would make Diane Abbott home secretary or the fact he would have a self admitted communist as chancellor or that he would not drop a nuke in self defence i do not believe a career politician like May can accidentally mess this up this was deliberately done to sabotage Brexit and need a new political party called something like the anti-corruption party i will now be voting UKIP until we finally got out of the EU in all aspects

the list of Corbyn's weak points are so big it's not even funny his a terrorist sympathiser in a time when we are being attacked by terrorists and he gave her a run for her money this is not a accident
  • #4,647
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:27am Jun 9, 2017 5:27am
Quoting DrManhatten
{quote} You could be right! Then again this could be a good thing, but the bench is thin for finding a true leader who will stick up and believe in the cause of BREXIT. What does this mean in the long term? A new Prime Minister will be elected? If Parliament is hung, who wins? Going forward???
I don't know Doc. If May throws the towel in, they elect a new leader. Think then that would probably lead to another General Election. If that was case Nige could stand and be in with a chance if the Brexit voters come out and feel they have someone they can trust. Then he would have a heart attack or an accident or something equally inconvenient

I thought this would happen ......

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9929638#post9929638
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #4,648
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:28am Jun 9, 2017 5:28am
Quoting jen101
{quote} In an ideal world, yes, but how on earth is Nige going to get in? I think it's between David Davis and Boris.
Don't forget Michael Gove!

Nige is not a leader. He stands behind the fan with a shovel.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #4,649
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:28am Jun 9, 2017 5:28am
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} The Conservatives got the most votes and the most seats (318 but needed 326 for an overall majority) , makes life difficult but not impossible. They could do a deal with NI's DUP which would give them 328, but a deal would have to be struck. May can remain as PM unless ousted by the Conservatives, but it would still be a Conservative PM
as the best researched men on FF what do you think the odds are that Corbyn we make a minority government?
  • #4,650
  • Edited 5:58am Jun 9, 2017 5:34am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting nbfx
{quote} Never forgiven Clegg for selling our kids down the river so he can get a glimpse of the illusion of power. Delighted he's gone. Boris is a difficult one. He has an image problem being widely seen as BOJO the Clown in spite of being incredibly shrewd under that veneer. I like Boris, but will he have wider appeal. David Davis on the other hand in spite of being more right wing appears more acceptable on the wider stage having been largely quiet for some time and as such less tarnished? May committed suicide with the whole elderly care thing...
BOJO had two sessions as mayor. That requires talent, anybody can get elected once ... except maybe Diane Abbott
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #4,651
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:34am Jun 9, 2017 5:34am
Quoting Ross88
{quote} i am not a conspiracy theory type of guy but their has to be some kind of conspiracy going on May can not be this stupid dementia tax killing foxes and talking about scrapping certain human rights not showing up to debates this is not a winning formula Corbyn was completely unchallenged all she really had to do was highlight he's weak points like the fact his manifesto didn't add up financially or the piss weak Brexit he would gave us or the fact he would make Diane Abbott home secretary or the fact he would have a self admitted communist...
So us ordinary people can see what she should have done. I think you have your answer mate. They are all bought and paid for. I don't think Nige can be bought, to stick with his convictions for so long on that EU battle he is real deal in my view and if we could get him in the establishment would crap their pants. He would need serious protection because they would try to kill him.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #4,652
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:34am Jun 9, 2017 5:34am
Quoting Ross88
{quote} i am not a conspiracy theory type of guy but their has to be some kind of conspiracy going on May can not be this stupid dementia tax killing foxes and talking about scrapping certain human rights not showing up to debates this is not a winning formula Corbyn was completely unchallenged all she really had to do was highlight he's weak points like the fact his manifesto didn't add up financially or the piss weak Brexit he would gave us or the fact he would make Diane Abbott home secretary or the fact he would have a self admitted communist...
Very well said, Ross. Absolutely.

Quoting Exodus
{quote} Don't forget Michael Gove! Nige is not a leader. He stands behind the fan with a shovel.
Oh no, I did!
  • #4,653
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:35am Jun 9, 2017 5:35am
Quoting Devauxt
{quote} The Conservatives got the most votes and the most seats (318 but needed 326 for an overall majority) , makes life difficult but not impossible. They could do a deal with NI's DUP which would give them 328, but a deal would have to be struck. May can remain as PM unless ousted by the Conservatives, but it would still be a Conservative PM
IMO May will go - just not sure who will replace her - Davis is my fav but not sure he could get enough support
Nothing strengthens authority so much as silence
  • #4,654
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:38am Jun 9, 2017 5:38am
Quoting Stu Effex
{quote} So us ordinary people can see what she should have done. I think you have your answer mate. They are all bought and paid for. I don't think Nige can be bought, to stick with his convictions for so long on that EU battle he is real deal in my view and if we could get him in the establishment would crap their pants. He would need serious protection because they would try to kill him.
i know this will make me sound like a wide eyed puppy but we need a anti corruption party with Nigel at the head
  • #4,655
  • Edited 5:58am Jun 9, 2017 5:41am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Don't forget Michael Gove! Nige is not a leader. He stands behind the fan with a shovel.
I think he (NIGE) would be a great leader. I don't think he would cave to pressure. I think there is a lot more to him than just being a one trick pony and above all I think he has integrity.
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
  • #4,656
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:44am Jun 9, 2017 5:44am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} BOJO had two session as mayor. That requires talent, anybody can get elected once ... except maybe Diane Abbott
Yeah - Clever man - I love him to bits.
  • #4,657
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:45am Jun 9, 2017 5:45am
Quoting nbfx
{quote} Maybe but executing a plan like that is a very subtle thing indeed. Not impossible. {quote} Yeah - Sir Humphrey Appleby would call it courageous. Alienating grey vote and their beneficiaries might not be too smart. In order to have pulled off a plan like this tho, Teresa May would have needed (not to mention those around her) to have been a consummate actress exhibiting great skill and an excess of guile that goes far beyond that routinely employed by your average politician. I don't think she's clever enough or skillful enough for that,...
The main reason she lost was the manifesto - that was not solely her responsibility - it was the cabinet(TPTB).
Nothing strengthens authority so much as silence
  • #4,658
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:46am Jun 9, 2017 5:46am
Quoting Ross88
{quote} i know this will make me sound like a wide eyed puppy but we need a anti corruption party with Nigel at the head
I'd support that.
  • #4,659
  • Edited 6:03am Jun 9, 2017 5:47am | Edited 6:03am
Quoting Magog
{quote} Yep me too - thought that was hedging
If you trade only FX then I suppose long and short in the same pair could be thought of as hedging, and I have referred to it as such in the past.

However a hedge is technically a position taken in a related but different market to reduce or defray risk, such as long EU when you are short EurAud.
For instance if you bought half of an American Mall you would probably open a ( edit: ) long in Cable to hedge against currency movement.

Oil companies have been taking protection in the derivative markets to sell oil for more than the going rate.
I think they are finding that a bit more difficult these days.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #4,660
  • Jun 9, 2017 5:51am Jun 9, 2017 5:51am
I reckon we might see Rees-Mog take a step to being tory leader
Once You See, You Can't Unsee But You Will Get The Odd Poke In The Eye
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