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The Really Useless Thread

  • #152,401
  • Jun 7, 2017 5:43pm Jun 7, 2017 5:43pm
Quoting nines
Guys I'm going to be shorting the crap out of cable here, wish me luck

Good afternoon nines..are you just rolling the dice or are you hearing something there in the UK that isn't being said to the rest of us out here..just curious

besides anything can happen ..Trump won !!!...lol
  • #152,402
  • Jun 7, 2017 6:17pm Jun 7, 2017 6:17pm
Quoting micho
{quote} maybe i will go short on the 4h chart after about 7 hours if i see a fractal at 1.2967
i will go short after 1:44 hours if we dont break the 1.2967
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #152,403
  • Jun 7, 2017 11:04pm Jun 7, 2017 11:04pm
Big day today with triple risk : ecb, UK elections and Comet testimony.

Focus on ecb : not expected so much from ecb. Yesterday there were some rumors about inflaton forecast that could be revised 10bps down but economists growth could be revised up. Draghi who is more dovish could keep his dovish speech as the latest inflation number were below the target 1.4% for the headline and more importantly 0,9% for the core inflation. The recent decline in energy prices is another factor that could keep the inflation below the 2%.
I think it's too early for the ecb to announce any tapering or any rise of the deposit rate. The main issue for draghi is to deal with the Germans and few others that are more hawkish.
So my guess is that they may withdraw some dovish words in the statement about the forward guidance as the inflation is now clearly above 0% but should keep his dovish speech during the Q&A.

So no surprises ecb could be like knee jeek reaction to 1.134 and then back to 1.111.
Hawkish ecb not expected at all direct play to 1.141
Dovish intermediate stop at 1.111 then 1.093

What's your opinion?
  • #152,404
  • Jun 8, 2017 3:01am Jun 8, 2017 3:01am
...and here we go for rather busy day. On UK, latest election (serious) polls show that the margin on popular vote has reduced a lot since she announced the election. However the numbers or MP (members of Parliament) hasnt at all TMAY is expected to clean sweep election today.

Two very jurassic and lame options in play but pretty much offering very little to the future and a lot to the past. Same demographic patterns as in the last elections is expected old folks, less educated and rural England will rule the vote while under 30s will sleepwalk into the abysm.

TMAY extreme hard brexit is very bearish Equites in the MT and LT Neutral Sterling. Corbyn (the opposition) communist Brexit is very bearish Equities in the MT and LT as well but positive Sterling via inflation, nationalisations and fiscal blow out...

Expectations are heavily aligned to clean sweep in election and hard brexit so a quick short lived reaction expected whoever wins the election to clear the political noise. Both parties will kill fiscal stability to keep the UK afloat while negotiations and etc happen. Tax hikes are coming, higher inflation & lower real wages will get stronger, exodus of business dependant on the common market will reach new highs from Q3 onwards.

...basically nothing new but enough to invite all those who are interesting in jumping in a quick iteration.

++++ Opening UK Election reaction iteration +++++


Simple choice this time:

 

  1. Long 1.30xx -> TP 1.330x -> STP 1.290x r:r 1:3
  2. Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3


Feel free to jump in .... GL all today...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #152,405
  • Jun 8, 2017 3:05am Jun 8, 2017 3:05am
Hi Sisse, thanks for your overview... I choose;

Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3

Have a great day!
  • #152,406
  • Jun 8, 2017 3:11am Jun 8, 2017 3:11am
Short for me.

Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3
  • #152,407
  • Jun 8, 2017 3:12am Jun 8, 2017 3:12am
Long 1.30xx -> TP 1.330x -> STP 1.290x r:r 1:3
  • #152,408
  • Jun 8, 2017 3:42am Jun 8, 2017 3:42am
Thanks for posting. I choose Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3
less is more
  • #152,409
  • Jun 8, 2017 3:48am Jun 8, 2017 3:48am

  1. Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3

  • #152,410
  • Jun 8, 2017 3:49am Jun 8, 2017 3:49am
Shy board, jump in before its too late ...

++++ Opening UK Election reaction iteration +++++


Long 1.30xx -> TP 1.330x -> STP 1.290x r:r 1:3

nikolaihel

Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3

nines

ceetee

mejo

matkooo2575



sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #152,411
  • Jun 8, 2017 4:11am Jun 8, 2017 4:11am
Quoting sisse
Shy board, jump in before its too late ... ++++ Opening UK Election reaction iteration +++++ Long 1.30xx -> TP 1.330x -> STP 1.290x r:r 1:3 nikolaihel Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3 nines ceetee mejo matkooo2575 sisse
Short
  • #152,412
  • Jun 8, 2017 4:12am Jun 8, 2017 4:12am
Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3
  • #152,413
  • Jun 8, 2017 4:22am Jun 8, 2017 4:22am
Short is obvious but barring surprise result, long on relief rally looks better. However, 1.33 is quite a stretch especially against usd, and all the way to the top of MT range...

My choice is long now for iteration (personally would short once reject 1.33xx)

^^
  • #152,414
  • Jun 8, 2017 4:22am Jun 8, 2017 4:22am
Quoting sisse
Shy board, jump in before its too late ...
Short
  • #152,415
  • Edited 4:58am Jun 8, 2017 4:44am | Edited 4:58am
Quoting sisse
Shy board, jump in before its too late ... ++++ Opening UK Election reaction iteration +++++ Long 1.30xx -> TP 1.330x -> STP 1.290x r:r 1:3 nikolaihel Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3 nines ceetee mejo matkooo2575 sisse
Wont be trading it live, but would say Long 1.30xx -> TP 1.330x -> STP 1.290x
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.
  • #152,416
  • Jun 8, 2017 4:46am Jun 8, 2017 4:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} st still hasn't reached the longer term 1316. if one got in on the scalp. atm in this 1270x area has that st dt. waiting for 1316 may be aggressive since it didnt do it yet. a possible retrace to 1197 is probably a less dangerous long for 1316 and maybe more. the problem for me is 1316 is a larger attraction than a st one like 1197. if or how it gets to 1316 may not be pretty here.. so if 1 scalped the 125x long.. dont let it turn red. 1270 may be a s/r later today. to reach 1316 it may require closes above 1270 and 1277, on a st basis is...
still no 1316,, so i missed a short. willing to long, but not till 1197.. but i will probably hold out for 1125/1089. meanwhile i probably will not see it.. so i have pendings above 1089 at 1099.. so instead of 1197 with a 1089 stop. perfectly normal.. i will have 1099 with a 11 pip stop..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #152,417
  • Jun 8, 2017 4:58am Jun 8, 2017 4:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still no 1316,, so i missed a short. willing to long, but not till 1197.. but i will probably hold out for 1125/1089. meanwhile i probably will not see it.. so i have pendings above 1089 at 1099.. so instead of 1197 with a 1089 stop. perfectly normal.. i will have 1099 with a 11 pip stop..
potential wtf after 1197 for both bears or bulls.. 1197/1089/,,, personally i am not comfortable either way at the current 1240, so i will wait for a small edge..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #152,418
  • Jun 8, 2017 5:04am Jun 8, 2017 5:04am
edit.. 1196 may be as good as 1197.. the point is it wasn't reached yesterday. so 1125/1089 may be lining up st. and i may get a entry there for a long. and if not, its a 0 sum sideline trade.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #152,419
  • Jun 8, 2017 5:26am Jun 8, 2017 5:26am
Quoting sisse
Shy board, jump in before its too late ... ++++ Opening UK Election reaction iteration +++++ Long 1.30xx -> TP 1.330x -> STP 1.290x r:r 1:3 nikolaihel Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3 nines ceetee mejo matkooo2575 sisse
A very reluctant short if still available, for the only reason that 1.29 seems considerably more easy to be hit, even if we were right now at 1.3
  • #152,420
  • Jun 8, 2017 5:31am Jun 8, 2017 5:31am

  1. Short 1.30xx -> TP 1.270x -> STP 1.310x r:r 1:3

fortis fortuna adiuvat
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