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The Really Useless Thread

  • #152,321
  • Jun 2, 2017 12:02pm Jun 2, 2017 12:02pm
Quoting assssssssss
I was a quiet student for so long... Out of respect for the guys that make this thread what it is (a trader wet dream).Reading and learning quietly hoping that some day I will be able to talk with this guys as an equal. Well afer several years of reading I'm almost there and I just want to give you an update on the ass-lover chalange and ask you humbly for your opinion: What a moves today huh ? But for me they are just speculations! This undershot (is it an undershot or a miss?) NFP cannot compare with the GDP from last week! At least I think so!...

Whats your SL? I'm still in from 1.1247 avg. Looking to stay in ..SL few under 1.1300 hopefully survive the day.
  • #152,322
  • Jun 2, 2017 12:28pm Jun 2, 2017 12:28pm
Seems like everytime I try to short sp500 it zooms up, then I think about the movie "the big short" and I try to short it again xD
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #152,323
  • Jun 2, 2017 1:27pm Jun 2, 2017 1:27pm
Well it's not much of a stop... 1.135! That's where I loose the iteration. So my stops are there. But my order is very small (0.01) just to track the iteration. The ass-lover challange from few pages back. So if you want my opinion on where to put your stop - use 1.134. beyond that I think it will be a game changer (technically) or at least will disrupt the MT flows. Good luck I'm with you on this
  • #152,324
  • Jun 2, 2017 1:47pm Jun 2, 2017 1:47pm
Quoting assssssssss
I was a quiet student for so long... Out of respect for the guys that make this thread what it is (a trader wet dream).Reading and learning quietly hoping that some day I will be able to talk with this guys as an equal. Well afer several years of reading I'm almost there and I just want to give you an update on the ass-lover chalange and ask you humbly for your opinion: What a moves today huh ? But for me they are just speculations! This undershot (is it an undershot or a miss?) NFP cannot compare with the GDP from last week! At least I think so!...
I've the same outcome than you but for different reasons. I don't think there is any trap, but big hands and smart moneys usually load from the top or the bottom it depends on the direction: buy or sell. Today's data has extended the exhaustion leg to the top. Taking into consideration next two week CBs decisions (i.e., ECB first and FED second) and figuring out what are the expectations from these two events, you can map the current movement as well as the direction for the next two weeks. This said, I might be completely wrong.
  • #152,325
  • Jun 3, 2017 2:06am Jun 3, 2017 2:06am
Hello all,
Weekly close above 1.128, not helping bears.
I will not look for sell for time being with ECB next week, but also not keen on buys at these levels.

To map future moves for euro, i came across some news on Italy, anyone has clearer idea on the political situation? Is snap election already decided/approved? If timing is close to german election would ECB take it into consideration?
  • #152,326
  • Jun 3, 2017 2:48am Jun 3, 2017 2:48am
Quoting Jansen
Hello all, Weekly close above 1.128, not helping bears. I will not look for sell for time being with ECB next week, but also not keen on buys at these levels. To map future moves for euro, i came across some news on Italy, anyone has clearer idea on the political situation? Is snap election already decided/approved? If timing is close to german election would ECB take it into consideration?
I don't think political risk will come from Europe, once cleared French elections I think the only chance for a good pullback would be bad economic numbers. I read that Germans and Italians would like to celebrate elections at the same time, looking to make less noise on the market..just the same as Mr.T.

Also from a point of view of a bear, technically we are breaking to the upside of the range, perfect time to fade the move. The question is, are we in the right boat?
  • #152,327
  • Jun 3, 2017 3:12am Jun 3, 2017 3:12am
Yes agree on fading the highs if we are still in MT neutral, but timing wise, too close to ecb in my opinion, just a mild change in language will be enough to spark new frenzy.

For Italy, i dont think its the same as merkel and her party. Election was not expected till next year, and with the new format im not sure if it will benefit the far right more or renzi/current pm.Their budget situation also dont come across as promising.

I wont base sell decision on these but just want to keep in mind before thinking of buy across eur pairs
  • #152,328
  • Jun 3, 2017 8:44am Jun 3, 2017 8:44am
I think more bad news coming in the next few months for EU, in the next two three weeks Italy will define a new election system that will end up in new elections in autumn or early.
poll as a right now shows slighty ahead the no euro "party"
Beware of Draghi
  • #152,329
  • Jun 3, 2017 11:02am Jun 3, 2017 11:02am
1.1316 will probably be reached or more. maybe as as high as near 1.17xx high.. a long/short here may not be worth the effort with the draw down potential. once 1316 is reached, i will began to look for shorts. toward 0.93.. in a few weeks Greece being unable to make loan payments i assume will pop up..
between now and then we still have the Trump effect that is not known. since the 2008 drop till the present 1.03xx drop. the retrace hasn't been normal. if that was to happen, the lift would surpass 1.17xx.. that would be an even larger setup after for sub 1.0. since i am unable to predict future (accurately) . the best i can hope for is shorting after 1.1316 and see if the momentum goes my way.. and never underestimating the forces to take it higher. from a chartist view. if i add the ej (that i am currently looking to short near 125.62/80. ) 1316 eu may be shallow. but i will still be looking 1316- 17xx.

by than greek news will be coming is my bet. that would make that window mentioned after 1316 a decent potential move. especially since uk already opted out.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #152,330
  • Jun 3, 2017 11:07am Jun 3, 2017 11:07am
1316-17xx? the range is too large....
  • #152,331
  • Jun 3, 2017 1:46pm Jun 3, 2017 1:46pm
Quoting chnp
1316-17xx? the range is too large....
Its not a range, per ce, its big picture. A view.
  • #152,332
  • Jun 4, 2017 1:50pm Jun 4, 2017 1:50pm
Another sad weekend, one more time in the UK and second time in only weeks in London.

More politics, more from DT, this time firing at London. The' special relation' is getting very choppy and deteriorating rather scandalously fast. Mood in the UK and in London is not the best for DT and we are about to close the line that he wont be able to put a foot in the UK without causing the Government to fall down in protests ...

Sadly not much to add but stupidity, extremist and ignorance taking over the world from all sides...

Heads up we have a full blown risk off weekend open...a quick call for those interested in joining

++++ OPENING 1st (Winners Take All) iteration +++++...


GL all trading this week

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #152,333
  • Jun 4, 2017 2:04pm Jun 4, 2017 2:04pm
Quoting sisse
... Sadly not much to add but stupidity, extremist and ignorance taking over the world from all sides... GL all trading this week sisse

Well actually there something positive to report.

The likely new PM of Ireland .. research him, the opposite of the above 3.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0602/87...el-leadership/
  • #152,334
  • Jun 4, 2017 4:11pm Jun 4, 2017 4:11pm
i have put a buy limit at 1.12507
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #152,335
  • Jun 4, 2017 4:41pm Jun 4, 2017 4:41pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 93 KB


i ve put together some data from cmegroup and placed it on daily eurusd chart from the beginning of 2017 until now
around 28.02 March rate hike prob passed the 70% mark but eurusd kept rising then on 15.03 fomc rate hike but eurusd kept rising until 26.03
then around 05.05 june rate hike prob. came around 70%. june fomc is on 14th so i think we still have time for eurusd to fall
anyway hope the image helps someone
  • #152,336
  • Edited 5:17pm Jun 4, 2017 5:06pm | Edited 5:17pm
I'm flat on E/U
if I had to pick a side I'd long at 1.1246 from below SL 1.194 aiming 1.135/36
small risk, friday's nfp move didn't convince me of bulls strength at current levels
maybe GB's labours polls rising will further strengthen the euro*
  • #152,337
  • Edited 7:00pm Jun 4, 2017 6:23pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting sisse
Another sad weekend, one more time in the UK and second time in only weeks in London. More politics, more from DT, this time firing at London. The' special relation' is getting very choppy and deteriorating rather scandalously fast. Mood in the UK and in London is not the best for DT and we are about to close the line that he wont be able to put a foot in the UK without causing the Government to fall down in protests ... Sadly not much to add but stupidity, extremist and ignorance taking over the world from all sides... Heads up we have a full blown...
MT sell eur/usd
NFP undershoot bulls couldnt break the 1.13 handle i see bulls losing strength just my two cents.
I would say best to position now for ecb expecting dovish draghi fade the highs.
ST buy the rumor sell the fact
Gold breaking april high
Jpy closing aprils gap
  • #152,338
  • Jun 5, 2017 1:44am Jun 5, 2017 1:44am
If we break daily pivot at 1,1256, I go for sell. SL 1,1290. TP 1,1111.
  • #152,339
  • Jun 5, 2017 2:00am Jun 5, 2017 2:00am
Quoting sisse
Another sad weekend, one more time in the UK and second time in only weeks in London. More politics, more from DT, this time firing at London. The' special relation' is getting very choppy and deteriorating rather scandalously fast. Mood in the UK and in London is not the best for DT and we are about to close the line that he wont be able to put a foot in the UK without causing the Government to fall down in protests ... Sadly not much to add but stupidity, extremist and ignorance taking over the world from all sides... Heads up we have a full blown...
Money will flight to US assets at increasing speed, Weekly close bellow 1.116. Will try an entry at 1.126 breakout.

Will have an eye on Oil for a push this week with May talking about fighting terrorism with more strenght and Saudi Arabia cuting diplomatic relations with Qatar... this coffee smells like war...
  • #152,340
  • Jun 5, 2017 2:57am Jun 5, 2017 2:57am
Quoting gatorinla
1.1316 will probably be reached or more. maybe as as high as near 1.17xx high.. a long/short here may not be worth the effort with the draw down potential. once 1316 is reached, i will began to look for shorts. toward 0.93.. in a few weeks Greece being unable to make loan payments i assume will pop up.. between now and then we still have the Trump effect that is not known. since the 2008 drop till the present 1.03xx drop. the retrace hasn't been normal. if that was to happen, the lift would surpass 1.17xx.. that would be an even larger setup...
this is possible and I highlighted few weeks back 1.1716 but the bull train has slowed down a bit
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