5 years and still no strategy

Thanks mate! still leaning.

Wage inflation is important.
A decent beat either side of expected and will be getting on the first pullback

Really we needed a beat on wage inflation.
Same as expected.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN18Q22O

Did you find a way to trade it? My EU that was in the hole finally hit TP, I took an earlier long to even out the RR, I also took 1 more long on the AU.

EU


AU

Got some pips. A good way to trade it - is to fade it (hence the name fader)

But there are a couple of rules with fading.
If there is a big beat against expected - never fade.
If the market has been bullish going into an event, and the figures are match expected or are just a bit over that would be a good time to fade it
The reason is that you have all these orders that bought into the event now have to sell
Its a bit like buy the rumour sell the news
Also fade against a suitable currency. Pound has been weak.
And after you have made your money - walk away

If I may ask yes you faded but why on that candle?

Would you agree that the markets are manipulated ? which = nonrandom

There are three sides to a coin- You for got the edge.

There's no such thing as chaos or random in market or in space or in any where.
Random don't have structure, repeatable structure, measurable structure and predictive structure.
If it is random then price can go as high as possible let say EURUSD 1.2345 to 1.5555 or 1.1111 in a day

Oh really. You told me in my own thread to hold my long AUDUSD position because there's 1000 pips to the upside.
Where in fact over that day, it went as high as 40 to 50 pips not even close to a 1/10 of 1000 pips

But now you say we must not hold a position over night because we should not be an investor.

Looking back at it - it was poor trading. My kids are around
Obviously this was a volatile period.
So it is difficult to gauge where demand was going to exhaust.
I think I entered at the high session (up to then)
Here is a previous example
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...57#post9547257
Any views?

It's a time series not a time whatever (;

Randomness or non-randomness does not affect the expectancy of a truly robust system IMHO, therefore the argument is a waste of time for all parties involved.

MT4 is crap (for the trader) therefore brokers that offer the platform are pretty much:____, this much is/should be common knowledge.

Anyone serious about trading would hop on a prime of prime broker or higher probably negotiate terms specific to his/her trading style, invest a min. of $100,000 by my calculations and diversify.

But alas, not everyone can tick these boxes, so - slug it out with a knife in this gun fight until you can get a gun - or leave the kitchen.

Lol well one thing is for sure, your GU 5 min TF and mine are almost completely different, if I was to fade the move, I have done it only twice all my life I believe, this is how I would and I would use the 15 min TF.

Hi cablefx

usually I have all this laid out.
But you are right - big orders sitting at 00.
What would make you short it at 1.28845

Random Walk
"The theory of price fluctuation as a random walk (and the term itself) has been used for centuries. There are numerous definitions of random walk, and each definition varies in shades depending on who is doing the defining. According to Robert Hagins Dow Jones-Irwin Guide to Modern Portfolio Theory, random walk is a term used in mathematics and statistics to describe a process in which successive changes are statistically independent. A random walk implies (that the market's price displays) no discernible pattern of travel. The size and direction of the next step cannot be predicted from the size and direction of the last or even from all previous steps. The serial correlation is (functionally) zero. In other words, the random walk theory holds that it is impossible to predict tomorrow's price changes based on what has occurred today.

Every market is an auction market, either passive or active. In a passive auction, the individual does not take part in an active negotiation process but selects from products offered at different prices which make up the range. In an active auction, participants negotiate the range. Whether the auction is passive or active, all markets auction or trend up and down in order to fulfill their purpose, to facilitate trade. In an auction, prices do not develop randomly, but rather to fulfill the purpose of the auction.

The purpose of any market is to facilitate trade. Lack of trade facilitation inevitably causes price to move. This price movement behavior is as true in the organized markets as it is in a grocery store or any other everyday market. Thus, price changes to satisfy the condition of the market and every price is a result of the condition of the market. The fact that price moves for a specific reason further precludes price from developing in a random manner.

Furthermore, prices are not statistically independent of each other. Price, in moving to satisfy the condition of the market, provides an informational flow. In other words markets must generate trade, and in doing so, prices fluctuate, generating information about where trade is being conducted and where it is not. This information is valuable to the market participant. But true randomness does not generate valuable information. In other words, in statistically random situations, knowledge of the present is not important for it conveys no advantage. If knowledge of the present structure of a market is important and does convey an advantage - a market cannot be a random walk. Price moves because of the degree of each timeframe's participation at various levels of price."

"Financial markets are the grease that lubricates national and international commerce. These markets are in a continuous state of "price discovery". Included are stock and options markets, commodities, bonds, forex and a wide variety of derivatives. All have a general commonality; they are openly traded and reported, price is set by auction and they must follow government and industry rules. Markets that meet these conditions are termed auction markets. The primary data generated by auction markets are their transactions, or ticks and sometimes, other items such as volume of trade and bid/ask."

Price is nothing more than an "advertising mechanism". It's part of the "price discovery process". The Price/ticker/quotes are "advertisements" It moves to solicit and encourage trade (looking for a response) It moves in search of participants in order to facilitate trade. Different prices at different times attract different TF participants. Price auctions too high in search of sellers and auctions too low in search of buyers. That is the purpose of auction markets, to facilitate trade. If you have equal amount of buyers & sellers, the market is at a virtual stalemate (equilibrium).The purpose of the markets is to "facilitate trade" To upset the stalemate (equilibrium) Market Makers advertise prices/quotes by auctioning up & down (price discovery) looking for new participants or to "advertise" prices/quotes at an attractive enough price to get the participants already holding trades to change their position to upset the imbalance.

in the markets price discovery process, the search for new participants. Price quotes are used to solicit traders, to enter a trade, and if you are already in a position, eventually you will be quoted a price high enough that it encourages you to exit the market by taking profits, or you will be quoted a price low enough that will force you out of your position That is the sole purpose of auction markets, through the price discovery process, is to facilitate trade . Every tick change is a change in the price being quoted .

In order to facilitate trade, through the price discovery process, the advertising mechanism will start quoting/soliciting higher & lower prices, In search for new participants to enter the market to upset the balance, or to move to an attractive price high enough to get existing buyers to exit the market by taking profits or by auctioning high enough to force weak sellers out of their existing positions. And in the reverse, to move to an attractive price low enough to get existing sellers to exit the market by taking profits or by auctioning low enough to force weak buyers out of their existing positions.

Price discovery is what gets a specific buyer and specific seller to move from establishing a general price, to agreeing on a specific price for their transaction, based on the size of the transaction, location of the transaction, cost of the transaction, and many other factors. It is a dynamic process, and in a way, it is the true mission of any market and any exchange.

Price discovery is one of the central functions of financial markets. In the market micro-structure literature, it has been variously interpreted as, the search for an equilibrium price (Schreiber and Schwartz (1986))

Those who understand the condition of the market (where price over time is building value) are conveyed an advantage from which they can profit whereas those who focus on prices against each other (time-series) must assume randomness and no understanding
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...01#post9852201

Price moves because it is a function of the Auction Process...

Tattoo-worthy.
k

Traders drive price to to those levels where there are orders (including fixes, pivots, session opens, known bank order levels, and 00 levels)

The overall size is of the move is based on the strength of demand or supply for a currency (eg: traders moving to a risk on/off position)

In the first diagram NY traders retest the London open session, then the NY open and finally the 4pm fix is set at the exact same price as the London open, during a quiet day

In the 2nd diagram (today) the UJ price is driven to a known area of support, which also happens to be an S2 pivot level (following NFP)- 100+ pip move

Traders don't drive price.........

FOREX traders often mistakenly think that their combined actions in the CFD market are determining the way a currency pair moves. It is true that they have an impact however we are trading a derivative ( a product that tracks the price of the underlying security) and to understand what drives our CFD prices we must understand what is driving the price of the underlying security, in this case the exchange rate of currencies.

The actual exchange rate is decided by the market makers who operate as foreign exchange dealers. A dealer accommodates people who want to change one currency into another, usually for the purpose of trade or investment, dealers charge buyers a higher price than they pay sellers making themselves a profit by providing this service.

To understand what drives FOREX prices you need to understand the foreign exchange dealer function, how do they decide prices and what makes them increase or decrease price.

https://www.fxstreet.com/education/w...s-201410230000

Apologies I did not mean traders but dealers or liquidity providers moving price (for orders) and institutional demand/supply driving magnitude.
That is where I stand.
Good night.

Bearish rejection candle, enter at close of that candle, although I would prefer a shorter wick to the low, textbook PA