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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,981
  • May 26, 2017 12:27pm May 26, 2017 12:27pm
Quoting goosebone
This is my MT map. There are many MT maps like it, but this one is mine. {image}
Can I ask you what is your outlook ? Last sisses updates on this topic was Soft Sell for the MT and Neutral for the ST.
I guess we are now in Sell for the ST (RMT triggered) but still Soft Sell for the MT, waiting for ECB next month ?
  • #151,982
  • May 26, 2017 12:47pm May 26, 2017 12:47pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Can I ask you what is your outlook ? Last sisses updates on this topic was Soft Sell for the MT and Neutral for the ST. I guess we are now in Sell for the ST (RMT triggered) but still Soft Sell for the MT, waiting for ECB next month ?
Yeah. Here's what E/U on the spreadsheet looks like atm. Believe it's up to date.

Even in neutral ST shorts work ok here imo. In MT shorts work on my map even if around ECB/FED a change to Neutral Outlook is in order. A change to buy would change the map. Not seeing a need to plan for all that now though.
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  • #151,983
  • May 26, 2017 12:58pm May 26, 2017 12:58pm
The good thing about that all important ECB/FED week in June is that we will have hoom to guide us through it as that's right when his turn is up to run the thread. At least that's what it says on the Thread Schedule on Sheet 3 of the RUT spreadsheet. (people may want to bookmark this just as a reminder)
  • #151,984
  • May 26, 2017 12:58pm May 26, 2017 12:58pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Yeah. Here's what E/U on the spreadsheet looks like atm. Believe it's up to date. Even in neutral ST shorts work ok here imo. In MT shorts work on my map even if around ECB/FED a change to Neutral Outlook is in order. A change to buy would change the map. Not seeing a need to plan for all that now though. {image}
Thank you.

Quoting goosebone
{quote}... Even in neutral ST shorts work ok here imo ... {image}
I agree. Actually, on the ST, I am loaded for a while now , I made the mistake not to wait for a signal on calm waters (like now) and stupidly/blindly short the top of the range and then the extreme, ie. machine gun approach (hard to drop old pavlovian responses !!)

Quoting goosebone
{quote} ... In MT shorts work on my map even if around ECB/FED a change to Neutral Outlook is in order. A change to buy would change the map. ... {image}
I don't see MT outlook changing to buy even with ECB announcing the end of QE for EOY. I would say Neutral. And Agressive Sell if they flop, which is still likely as some economists are quite cautious about inflation.
  • #151,985
  • May 26, 2017 1:04pm May 26, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting goosebone
The good thing about that all important ECB/FED week in June is that we will have hoom to guide us through it as that's right when his turn is up to run the thread. At least that's what it says on the Thread Schedule page 5 of the RUT spreadsheet. (people may want to bookmark this just as a reminder)
Looking forward to reading him. He really impresssed me when he went long at the top of the range in the Euro.
  • #151,986
  • May 26, 2017 1:09pm May 26, 2017 1:09pm
Quoting goosebone
The good thing about that all important ECB/FED week in June is that we will have hoom to guide us through it as that's right when his turn is up to run the thread. At least that's what it says on the Thread Schedule on Sheet 3 of the RUT spreadsheet. (people may want to bookmark this just as a reminder)
I plead the fifth .
I don't know who you are but i will find you and i will hack your account.
According to paragraph 4. section 2. hoom is no longer available in the RUT and turning to invisible mode from now on
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #151,987
  • May 26, 2017 1:13pm May 26, 2017 1:13pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} I plead the fifth . I don't know who you are but i will find you and i will hack your account. According to paragraph 4. section 2. hoom is no longer available in the RUT and turning to invisible mode from now on
Hey don't blame me I don't make the rules. Its right there on sheet 3. Don't be nervous you are going to be great.
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  • #151,988
  • May 26, 2017 1:21pm May 26, 2017 1:21pm
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #151,989
  • May 26, 2017 1:42pm May 26, 2017 1:42pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Looking forward to reading him. He really impresssed me when he went long at the top of the range in the Euro.
easy

I was asking myself how to get better predicting week roll price. Looks like its dying near the lows.
  • #151,990
  • May 26, 2017 3:58pm May 26, 2017 3:58pm
Looking like 1160 has taken a seat in the waiting room. Thin Monday and plenty of EZ numbers to push things around next week during the lead up to NFP.
Good weekend everybody.
  • #151,991
  • May 26, 2017 4:04pm May 26, 2017 4:04pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Yeah. Here's what E/U on the spreadsheet looks like atm. Believe it's up to date. Even in neutral ST shorts work ok here imo. In MT shorts work on my map even if around ECB/FED a change to Neutral Outlook is in order. A change to buy would change the map. Not seeing a need to plan for all that now though. {image}
I dont think this is valid anymore. As sisse pointed out he stopped updating outlooks publicly, he also wrote we had some changes in dollar and euro outlook since then. And if you try to calculate your own outlook now, I think tou will come to something different too. Mainly trading june hike is fact, and if you look how we traded last hike... expectations towards dollar except monetary policy is hijacked by DT alot, which at least for me is quite negative and on the other side euro expectation is start, or at least hints of start of normalisation. Today we see clearing of some longs I guess, more will come for M close, but I'm not really sure if it is opportunity for ST short, maybe MT but that would need maybe bit more confirmation as timing is all.
  • #151,992
  • May 26, 2017 4:09pm May 26, 2017 4:09pm
Quoting sisse
Here we go for NY ... Last open question in the thread as TA wrap up for all those who have been tracking the conversations in the last few months (@goosebone you are not allowed to play as you already know an answer) Where are we rolling today in the Euro? sisse
No winners this week... boo.
Have a nice weekend.
  • #151,993
  • Edited 5:01pm May 26, 2017 4:25pm | Edited 5:01pm
Quoting Grinsakh
{quote} I dont think this is valid anymore. As sisse pointed out he stopped updating outlooks publicly, he also wrote we had some changes in dollar and euro outlook since then. And if you try to calculate your own outlook now, I think tou will come to something different too. Mainly trading june hike is fact, and if you look how we traded last hike... expectations towards dollar except monetary policy is hijacked by DT alot, which at least for me is quite negative and on the other side euro expectation is start, or at least hints of start of normalisation....
You maybe right there and I'm working with obsolete outlooks. Good points. Does from here to 1.083x seem unreasonable? Is it more likely that we are stalling on the way to 1.13x/4x?
Guess everybody has to decide what rates mode means for himself, and where we are on a map of your own design. Next week should make or break my idea of it.
Good luck if you are in on either side of it.
  • #151,994
  • May 26, 2017 7:57pm May 26, 2017 7:57pm
looks like a active social life for Jared in orange.. and all the sex he wants.. maybe more. people have 2 nuts on the line linking Trump directly. the song birds are singing.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,995
  • May 26, 2017 11:02pm May 26, 2017 11:02pm
Chances of Trump impeachment are low. 1) Partisan divide is so ossified in Congress there would prolly not be enough Republicans to come along for impeachment, regardless of what he may have done. After the 2018 midterms, maybe a different story; 2) Still up in the air as to whether DJT has done any impeachable acts or criminal behavior. That also could change down the line; 3) Some are afraid DJT would not go peacefully; that he would try to stage a coup or instigate a civil war. If not that, many in Congress and in high places fear for the Nation given the extreme partisan divides that exist across the population and they will not likely want to flick a match in that fireworks stand. 4) Democrats may calculate that Trump's attempt at governing will be such a failure, keeping him in office longer will be beneficial to their future campaigns 5) and so on,....we are likely going to be stuck with DJT and it remains to be seen if he can actually get any of his hallmark campaign trail promises done. 6) Shit, his 2018 budget only has $1.6 bio for the Mexico border wall - not even close.

I have always thought the one thing DJT could do to lose his hard core base is backtrack on his anti-immigrant agenda.

http://www.businessinsider.com/ian-b...tergate-2017-5

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/pol...526-story.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,996
  • May 26, 2017 11:19pm May 26, 2017 11:19pm
Who are all these lurkers that have been around lately? So sisse had some of his content here lifted and put on another site somewhere? Where was that then? And now he's the object of an adoring, anonymous public? Well, worse things could happen to a guy, I guess.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,997
  • May 26, 2017 11:29pm May 26, 2017 11:29pm
v
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,998
  • May 26, 2017 11:33pm May 26, 2017 11:33pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,999
  • May 26, 2017 11:37pm May 26, 2017 11:37pm
yeah, I know it look bad. But impeachment is a political process, not a legal one. I'm just saying it looks like a long shot to me at this point - subject to change if more soiled undies are found.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #152,000
  • Edited 10:06am May 27, 2017 9:26am | Edited 10:06am
In my opinion it doesnt even have to be criminal to matter. Doesnt have to lead to impeachment either. Maybe it does have to be all that if trading the s+p is the focus. But if you consider what reaction there would be in risk assets if real unspinnable evidence came to light, even if it wasn't enough to roll the guillotine out into the town square, you could see some run for cover I think. Then...bt big fd right? Especially when the tone deaf opposition's strategy is trying to sell a not so brand spanking new New Deal.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/democ...-strategy.html
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