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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,901
  • May 25, 2017 11:21am May 25, 2017 11:21am
Quoting gatorinla
usdx never retraced 101.52. its not written in stone, it usually does before 95.45. another normal thing would be 97.08. it has done 97.08 and more. atm low at 96.79. eu is still probably targeting 1.1316 .. but what has bothered me for months and still does is 101.52. its probably time to get more cautious on usd dropping much more w/o a retrace. .
the same dilemma for me. i still thinks some large med/large players started buying usd after 97.08
Quoting gatorinla
if i am wrong about 95.45 target. it reaching 97.08 still has the larger 108.55 target, and 101.52. reaching 97.08 allows some larger players a green light for usd lift. it would be better if eu had reached 1.1316 and usdx reached 95.45. reaching 97.08 is a weaker signal. so it may be enough to screw many with a 200 eu drop.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,902
  • May 25, 2017 11:53am May 25, 2017 11:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the same dilemma for me. i still thinks some large med/large players started buying usd after 97.08 {quote}
What do you think about the 96.5? Its the 61.8% Fib retracement of the previous impulse up (92 > 104), the 1.618% extension of the AB wave (u can see it on the chart) and also seems like a very decent support/resistance for the past couple years. I think we might bounce of this area right here 96.5-97 and move higher in a zigzag move to 99/101. (ps. the prices on the right of the chart are a bit off but i hope its understandable)
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  • #151,903
  • May 25, 2017 12:22pm May 25, 2017 12:22pm
Moving days continue across the board. Great sessions for trading.... Highlight as more than widely expected come from OIL got hammered back down and more importantly for the W/M combo with US numbers we have changes in outlook in Dollar, Euro and US equities ...

Quoting Traderak
....Like this one ' oil will be in the driver seat...' how, with any corelation? Cause indeces follow what direction oil goes , or commodoties.
lol mate .... how did I know that? OPEC maybe rings a bell? Saudi agreements maybe? or maybe you miss US is going to start increasing the use of its OIL reserves for the first time in decades .... Maybe you want to start keeping a closer eye on the markets beyond the FF news on the right of the home page.

If you have doubts about how basic correlation work between OIL and Dollar and main markets in general why don't you research something and post your comment, ideas or questions in the thread? I bet you and all here will get a better bang for the discussion than just expecting me to explain every line i write in the micro detail ...

So I shot you back why don't you take the initiative and open a discussion about it ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,904
  • May 25, 2017 12:34pm May 25, 2017 12:34pm
Quoting sisse
If you have doubts about how basic correlation work between OIL and Dollar and main markets in general why don't you research something and post your comment, ideas or questions in the thread?
btfd opp for wti as we roll into seasonal peak demand across the Northern Hemisphere. Supply glut generally will mean a tough uphill climb to $60.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,905
  • May 25, 2017 1:09pm May 25, 2017 1:09pm
Quoting realfan
{quote} What do you think about the 96.5? Its the 61.8% Fib retracement of the previous impulse up (92 > 104), the 1.618% extension of the AB wave (u can see it on the chart) and also seems like a very decent support/resistance for the past couple years. I think we might bounce of this area right here 96.5-97 and move higher in a zigzag move to 99/101. (ps. the prices on the right of the chart are a bit off but i hope its understandable) {image}
i still think both will happen, they are opposite and require a zag zag to happen. i still think usdx 95.45 will be hit along with eu 1316. but the trick is will usdx 101.52 happen b4 (its normal). the same plague as 2 months ago when i closed my 0585 eu long too early. so to answer your question, i really dont know. the best i can do is keep the R/R in my favor. i didnt think the R/R was very good once we were above 1160, even if it was going to 1316. so at 1260 i said as much because of draw-down and the usd reaching 97.08.. that could easily give a eu 200+ pip drop. not worth the additional 50 pips from 1260... but i am usually a minority.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,906
  • May 25, 2017 1:21pm May 25, 2017 1:21pm
lol

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fixin...080000888.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,907
  • May 25, 2017 1:23pm May 25, 2017 1:23pm
call it support or a starting block..1193
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,908
  • May 25, 2017 1:41pm May 25, 2017 1:41pm
took a short from 1.2411 level seeing the rejection from the previous daily highs and was eyeing the price based entry at 1.2194 ( been trying something new with a potential roll play and reading past notes) its interesting how early in the day it went down and came right back to this price at the european close!!! whoa ... i feel like I'm slowly on to something as i took a short from there and already in profit with minimal drawdown.... super cool

did the same idea on pound shooting from the 1.297 area when it spiked early but i didn't reload... but I'm hoping we can finally break thru this congestion triangle....

such revelations this week. that is if it all pans out... hahaha

anyone else in pound and euro shorts
  • #151,909
  • May 25, 2017 1:51pm May 25, 2017 1:51pm
deja vu

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...he-bond-market

vuja de

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...trategy-debate

CB's wit da thumb up da butt & could be a long boring Summer....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,910
  • May 25, 2017 2:20pm May 25, 2017 2:20pm
Quoting roobii
... anyone else in pound and euro shorts
I have a small short in EU. Not sure the bull runs is over yet (short term), but it is showing signs of a top. Looks to me like it should be down at 1.115x by close on Friday, but it will do what it wants. I'm also long UJ, expecting 114 before under 110.2. US economy appears to be chugging along.
defense wins championships
  • #151,911
  • May 25, 2017 2:24pm May 25, 2017 2:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
call it support or a starting block..1193 {image}
1215 is a smaller R today. between 1193/1215 may develop a little range. week close below 1193 is a weakening eu bull sign.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,912
  • May 25, 2017 2:42pm May 25, 2017 2:42pm
Quoting sisse
Moving days continue across the board. Great sessions for trading.... Highlight as more than widely expected come from OIL got hammered back down and more importantly for the W/M combo with US numbers we have changes in outlook in Dollar, Euro and US equities ... {quote} lol mate .... how did I know that? OPEC maybe rings a bell? Saudi agreements maybe? or maybe you miss US is going to start increasing the use of its OIL reserves for the first time in decades .... Maybe you want to start keeping a closer eye on the markets beyond the FF news on...

I would not bet much on most correlation plays lately.......

pro correlation (or better inverse correlation):

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/sc...c5d65b2461f68d


contra correlation:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/06/the-c...gone-citi.html

https://seekingalpha.com/article/402...-goldman-sachs

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-do...n-2014-10?IR=T


undecisive:

http://scholarworks.merrimack.edu/cg...nors_capstones




Can provide more if needed


And they tell me, that Elliotticans can not agree on one simple count LOL
  • #151,913
  • May 25, 2017 3:00pm May 25, 2017 3:00pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I would not bet much on most correlation plays lately....... pro correlation (or better inverse correlation): https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/sc...c5d65b2461f68d contra correlation: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/06/the-c...gone-citi.html https://seekingalpha.com/article/402...-goldman-sachs http://www.businessinsider.com/us-do...n-2014-10?IR=T undecisive:...

http://marketrealist.com/2017/04/us-...t-oils-upside/

Long-term correlation between crude oil and the dollar
Between September 2007 and May 2013, the one-month correlation between crude oil and the US dollar was positive in only a few instances. The correlation was largely negative during that period.
However, from May 2013 to the present, the correlation between crude oil and the US dollar has been more bidirectional. During that period, the one-month correlations fluctuated between -64.0% and 43.0%.


http://www.businessinsider.de/dollar...17-3?r=US&IR=T

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/12/goldm...th-dollar.html


Correlation plays work until the don't, and vice versa
  • #151,914
  • May 25, 2017 3:52pm May 25, 2017 3:52pm
Quoting infinitus
Correlation plays work until the don't, and vice versa
Exactly. fundies are great but they will take you only so far in the age of Twitter and omnipresent CB control...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,915
  • May 25, 2017 4:26pm May 25, 2017 4:26pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Respectfully, i don't agree with this. I'd say the illusion that these two forms of analysis exist seperate from each other and that at a given time, one, and not the other is in play leads to the bipolar type mistakes I've been personally very good at making since 1.03x If it works for you to look at it this way more power to you of course. I'm trying to get an understanding of all of it without denying any of it (and without blowing my account in the meantime). I'll let you know when I reach that Nirvana
Sure I guess we if we are trying to understand both methods we are at some way acknowledging that one drives the other and if both interpreted correctly should be in sync. Certainly with limited understanding on the FA side or misinterpreting the implications, it can appear that it is at odds with a TA. I fully accept that is due to interpretation of one or other being incorrect. At the end of the day the charts must reflect the fundamental....sometimes its easier to accept what you see rather than understand why it got there....
  • #151,916
  • Edited 7:15pm May 25, 2017 5:03pm | Edited 7:15pm
Quoting cashfactor
{quote} Sure I guess we if we are trying to understand both methods we are at some way acknowledging that one drives the other and if both interpreted correctly should be in sync. Certainly with limited understanding on the FA side or misinterpreting the implications, it can appear that it is at odds with a TA. I fully accept that is due to interpretation of one or other being incorrect. At the end of the day the charts must reflect the fundamental....sometimes its easier to accept what you see rather than understand why it got there....
I guess if I have to be honest I've come around to thinking there isn't much difference between the two "fundamentally" speaking. Like if TA is the study of how, when and in what repetitive patterns buyers and sellers interact, thats pretty fundamental really. And if FA, for an example describes the force driving price in a certain direction as due to rate differentials or a shift in the economic environments on either side of a currency pair by providing an expected price target or trend, in the end that analysis is pretty technical.
I don't think it helps my trading to seperate the two as wholly different approaches for any reason other than easier conversation with others. But to me they are basically the same thing conceptually speaking.
Maybe a simpler way to put that would be: since you can't have one thing without the other, there's only one thing.
FA+(TAŚ0)=0 TA+(FAŚ0)=0 FA+TA=A
  • #151,917
  • May 25, 2017 5:18pm May 25, 2017 5:18pm
it's all just a crap shoot really
  • #151,918
  • May 25, 2017 5:19pm May 25, 2017 5:19pm
Quoting Pharm0r
it's all just a crap shoot really
You don't believe that.
  • #151,919
  • May 25, 2017 5:45pm May 25, 2017 5:45pm
Quoting sisse
Ufff...haters et all taking over this thread ..I am getting tired of this BS ..fck fortune tellers and scammers start selling signals ..the marketers stole the content and started selling in blogs, crap FX sites and in tradingview,etc signals but copy pasting the text in the thread (mth fckres) ..flood of haters trying to stir the pot and misleading readers here of whats we were really discussing and complaining about 'this is not trading' bs ..leaving the thread slowly fading away with just general posts.. sisse

"Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity can pay to greatness" ...Oscar Wilde

Jeez, a guy goes out in the morning and comes back to these shenanigans! Seriously though I'd no idea it was so bad and of course this must be infuriating ..but plagiarism on the internet is commonplace and almost to be expected ..and "we trade expectations" right? .
As long as you have the sincere wish to try and help as many traders as possible through the medium of a public forum (as is self evident by the huge amount of time and effort you've invested here) then you must also unfortunately expect such BS from thieves, scammers & trolls etc as just the "cost of doing business". Such behaviour is to be derided and exposed and put down at every opportunity of course but it can't be eradicated completely if you still wish the maximum reach of the public forum. You've reached many many people with your own posts and by unlocking others', and given us novel ways of seeing through the market BS and pinpointing core issues for trading which can indeed be life-changing for some. Personally I never miss catching up on all the thread posts in the evenings or whenever, and it's long been my #1 port of call, big time!!! Unfortunately I've been a slow learner and couldn't match the other valuable (and brave) posters' contributions (no need for names we know who you are! ), and you all well deserve your invitations to any private space sisse is trying to organize for you (Jeez I couldn't handle that pressure! ha ha ) and the best of luck to you all with that!

I know you've been here before a while back sisse (and possibly many times already) and were almost giving up on the thread but many posters petitioned you to keep going and relent. Although I'm not seeing a lot of that in public so far I'd guess your PM's are full of such requests again no doubt! Anyway, I'm not one for PM's so here's me officially and openly asking you not to be tooooo distant and to still try and give us some of those nuggets and insights here on the public forum in as far as you can. Either way nothing stays the same and things move on, it's change and it's a necessary part of life if we are to progress ...maybe the thread will transition to something "different" but no less invigorating who knows!?

As a last defence for the RUT, I was struck by your comments a while back about the way to save the thread from trolls etc was to elevate the market discussions to levels above which they just wither away and leave ...surely all those serious posters who've long elevated the discussion levels along with your good self should still outlast any such transitory "haters"?

Thumbs up to the RUT!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #151,920
  • May 25, 2017 5:48pm May 25, 2017 5:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
it's all just a crap shoot really
...and educated guess you meant instead of random gamble ...

Quoting infinitus
{quote} ....Correlation plays work until the don't, and vice versa
...Markus as in your EW, the key is knowing or finding early when those correlations will enter in play...and when is time to look over them...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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