The Really Useless Thread

Quoting chester123

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I wonder what sisses interpretation is. Judged by gold and treausuries they either read it as dovish or as a very soft risk-off trigger.

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Quoting Earleone

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{quote} Look here http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...n-to-fomc.html Rate hike in June probability go from 78.5% before minutes to 83.1% expectation now. So different opinions here.

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Quoting goosebone

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{quote} In the case of treasuries I was thinking that its a clearing of risk around balance sheet uncertainty (however realistic or unrealistic that risk was/is is in the first place). Would like to hear sisse on it too though.

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Quoting Pharm0r

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{quote} ...........seems the stage is set for a good = good, bad = bad for US numbers leading into June {quote} thats a good thought too I wonder if CME tracker for july, sept, or dec has risen substantially since FOMC

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Quoting Pharm0r

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It seems to me we are all saying the exact same thing....just in different words Hikes are dependent on more information

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Quoting Pharm0r

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It seems to me we are all saying the exact same thing....just in different words Hikes are dependent on more information

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Quoting chester123

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{quote} BTW Fharm0r we have not finished the conversation on EUR/JPY. Even though we were not even able to agree on direction If my direction is right I think we have gotten a very solidly confirmed break on mid term with 3 W1 candles now. So Im not in as Im shy of minors but what would I do now? 3 mid term positions with stop loss bellow the MT top. May try a shot. {image}

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Quoting goosebone

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{quote} Yes we are. Expectations leaned perhaps toward June Hike confirm. A flop on that expectation is not dovish. It is less hawkish than markets desired but next few sessions will tell us how much that matters.

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Quoting Pharm0r

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{quote} I think you are correct now that risk has cleared try a small shot- just remember with minors 100 pips is a small move

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Quoting chester123

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{quote} Actually if you look at NK first "crisis" risk-off at the beginning of MAY - euro went up vs. JPY. I think it shows it has now become a better safe heaven currency maybe also as sisse says that Japan is gonna be in terrible possition surrounded by wolfs vs kind of safe EU at least a little bit further from all potential conflicts. So maybe a risk-off can fuel it too. Yes, you right - need to figure out the stop first. But I guess if you take a confirmed break the SL does not have to be that wide = of course not planning to set it on M15...

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Quoting Pharm0r

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lol wut.

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Quoting Pharm0r

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{quote} What was 5/17, 5/18- that's when I sold and went flat today. Was Trump scandal blah blah, I didn't mark it, and was hoping for a boost today but no go

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Quoting goosebone

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{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...16#post9826416

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Quoting chester123

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{quote} yeah, that was the Trump FBI Comey (pressure to end Flynn investigation/obstraction of justice) scandal and first round of impeachment talks in mainstream media - very well seen on Gold and treasuries. For now its calm = Comey was supposed to testify before Congress today but it was postponed for some reason and as far as I know its not scheguled now. But definitelly one to keep an eye on - as even the rumour triggered strong reaction.

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Quoting Pharm0r

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{quote} There was no confirmation of hikes, instead a maybe. Wasn't hard to miss. Perhaps CME futures knows whether there will be a hike better than FOMC does "Members generally judged that it would be prudent to await additional evidence indicating that the recent slowing in the pace of economic activity had been transitory before taking another step in removing accommodation." Treasuries, dollar and euro agree....seems the stage is set for a good = good, bad = bad for US numbers leading into June {quote} thats a...

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Quoting NMZee

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{quote} So basically, everyone perceives differently these Fundamentals, rate confirm or rate is a maybe. Ok expectations have increased......yay..... short euro, long uj. But no somewhere someone thought its risk off and pressed the other button, and retail traders get fecked. They always have a reason for this abruptness. I shorted uj ar 4 h 200 ema and closed at +52 pips purely technical trade. Something i can see and understand. Have just witnessed the euro fiasco 400 pips up when fundamental was strongly suggesting a drop but TA had a strong...

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Quoting Pharm0r

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{quote} I get it, I'm just pulling your leg. I can agree with inline neutral. I was hoping for more "we still believe the past was a fluke" not a "perhaps we should wait" So clear, load higher in expectations that US numbers wont flop. If flop- kill, if good load more. or visa versa {quote} It's interesting that Trump has been hushed on both topics, which makes me think he is moving chess pieces in the background. He's big on talking, but big on secrecy when needed involving military movements etc. That extreme reaction is what worries me if...

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