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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,781
  • May 23, 2017 9:11am May 23, 2017 9:11am
Quoting Pharm0r
Germany joining in the verbal currency manipulation game I see, with such expert politicians who needs banks to set rates?
LOL, Yeah. He said this back in February. FF has it as breaking news today. hmmmm.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #151,782
  • Edited 10:02am May 23, 2017 9:48am | Edited 10:02am
That was pretty much it for the day. A decent day for trading with all markets in synch.

=> For those trading OIL, is clearing time with the energies close @51.3x right on time for this week news. Oil we'll get centre stage right after the Minutes and we'll be in the driver seat for a potential major mover and shaker later in the weekend with OPEC.

=> Most of EZ markets on holiday for tomorrow but we have a quick 'just in case' Draghi from Madrid in the first relevant public appearance since French elections but all eyes on the FED to clear the Minutes as pure [check] to put us back for June hikes.

Key market point:
For the first time since the FED normalisation started, expectations hasn't been fully digested at all in Dollar (we jumped from 45% to nearly 90% ...now sitting at 78%) because of DT risk Russia flop since last few weeks. However we have a double whammy/triple whammy in Dollar (hikes, tax cuts, and fiscal blow out) in the horizon from which rates at least will be triggered (the other 2 is all politics but expectations are there after DT tour). Any decent news from the US (i.e GDP & inflation) will be more than enough to trigger the flows...

sisse

Quoting Pharm0r
Germany joining in the verbal currency manipulation game I see, with such expert politicians who needs banks to set rates?
Local politics. First early teaser (it will become louder later) of German elections. Merkel comment was aimed to local politics.

==> There is a big % of super almost dogmatic groups in Germany that panic about inflation (German hyperinflation in the interwar period is one of those things that Germans are obsessed about) and another group that are very economic risk averse and see Savings rather Consumption as most important for a country long term stability.... The last 3 years low levels in Euro* are way beyond acceptable for them for much longer...

Interesting to note the diametrically opposite reason on the comments from different countries:

==> Japan and Swiss they try to weaken their currencies to void the excessive impact of risk flows coming in and distorting the monetary base.

==> US and UK (now since the populist are in power which is new, before it was only for third world countries) they try to devaluate to gain artificial [and myopic] uncompetitive advantage over the rest;

==> Germany which try to pump the currency (which is the opposite of what the average person would think make sense) in order to keep savings and real competitive factors always on check (in my view sometimes too obsessive and not necessarily based on technical reasons)

As any half educated economist will tell you. Artificially manipulating a currency, either by artificially devaluing to gain uncompetitive advantage or appreciating to force balancing of payments deficits is never a good idea (is actually very bad in all cases).

Those extreme measures that short circuit market and monetary flows only work in very precise and particular case and only to correct very short term unbalances never as a policy in itself.

In this particular case, I would say just noise as there is always a political grace 'buffer' period in which politicians are allow to talk louder to please local politics during elections. While if these things move from elections noise to real Presidents and PM trying to interfere ...thats a whole different issue.

UK was doing this in the BOE last year but thankfully it has calmed down lately. DT flirted to hijack the FED but it has gone quiet thankfully but if he makes the mistake of interfering it will create a major short-circuit across the FX board...

More to come in that front until German clear elections ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,783
  • May 23, 2017 9:57am May 23, 2017 9:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eu bullish, but one may be able to buy it cheaper.. longing toward 1.1316 may not be worth a draw-down. if it cant make 1.1316. the usdx may force 101.52. if so, the last low at 1.05xx may be challenged. chart in blue shows st the path to 1316, 1st q 1237. the purple the path to 1053 the 1st q 1214 {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,784
  • May 23, 2017 9:57am May 23, 2017 9:57am
Quoting sisse
Key market point: For the first time since the FED normalisation started, expectations hasn't been fully digested at all in Dollar (we jumped from 45% to nearly 90% ...now sitting at 78%) because of DT risk Russia flop since last few weeks. However we have a double whammy/triple whammy in Dollar (hikes, tax cuts, and fiscal blow out) in the horizon from which rates at least will be triggered (the other 2 is all politics but expectations are there after DT tour). Any decent news from the US (i.e GDP & inflation) will be more than enough to trigger...
  • #151,785
  • May 23, 2017 10:20am May 23, 2017 10:20am
Quoting sisse
sad news from the UK this time from Manchester.
...markets don't care, have become numb to the atrocities....when the bombing runs on NK &/or Iran start, they will shoot up....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,786
  • May 23, 2017 11:40am May 23, 2017 11:40am
Quoting sisse
That was pretty much it for the day. A decent day for trading with all markets in synch. => For those trading OIL, is clearing time with the energies close @51.3x right on time for this week news. Oil we'll get centre stage right after the Minutes and we'll be in the driver seat for a potential major mover and shaker later in the weekend with OPEC. => . sisse
Does this mean you are closing all your longs? I am long oil too and was planing to close out on the US selling of emergency reserve news but the price action today is very encouraging so still keeping all my position and the plan is to close somewhere near 53... Can you please tell me the rationale for 51.3??
  • #151,787
  • May 23, 2017 12:27pm May 23, 2017 12:27pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...markets don't care, have become numb to the atrocities....when the bombing runs on NK &/or Iran start, they will shoot up....
not enough room in the bunker for the trading station....

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-at...17-5?r=UK&IR=T
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,788
  • May 23, 2017 12:33pm May 23, 2017 12:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} not enough room in the bunker for the trading station.... http://www.businessinsider.com/us-at...17-5?r=UK&IR=T

The only thing that saves them is their proximity to Seoul I suspect, otherwise we would have done it a while ago...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #151,789
  • May 23, 2017 12:48pm May 23, 2017 12:48pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
The only thing that saves them is their proximity to Seoul I suspect, otherwise we would have done it a while ago...
expect the unexpected....and throw on some cheap puts somewhere (or long vol calls) just in case.....and then, don't forget, btfd....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,790
  • May 23, 2017 1:03pm May 23, 2017 1:03pm
Very sad news from Manchester, hope that behind the flashes and lights of the Donal Trump holy trip is really a plan to end this crazyness.
  • #151,791
  • May 23, 2017 1:50pm May 23, 2017 1:50pm
Quoting Paintomaker
Very sad news from Manchester, hope that behind the flashes and lights of the Donal Trump holy trip is really a plan to end this crazyness.
yes very sad news, this sad news happens every day in palestine, iraq and syria since years. the trip was not holy, it was business and political. USA and its distant state israel both founders and sponsors of terror are employing retarded kingdoms of middle ages to do their dirty jobs (fighting IRAN and its allies) by reshuffling the definition of terror once again to include Iran and its allies because it forms a threat against their terrorist distant state.... anyone with eyes can see the whole story really unless you chose to be blind
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #151,792
  • May 23, 2017 2:05pm May 23, 2017 2:05pm
Quoting micho
{quote} yes very sad news, this sad news happens every day in palestine, iraq and syria since years. the trip was not holy, it was business and political. USA and its distant state israel both founders and sponsors of terror are employing retarded kingdoms of middle ages to do their dirty jobs (fighting IRAN and its allies) by reshuffling the definition of terror once again to include Iran and its allies because it forms a threat against their terrorist distant state.... anyone with eyes can see the whole story really unless you chose to be blind...
Agree. The ones who started this have lost control of what in a start was only a tactic for make unstable a region. Those master of puppets aren't going to be facing "our" justice anytime soon, but we can't let the people who have lost everything in Iraq, Palestina or Syria to take the justice for them killing inocents. That region has to be stabilized, and is not gonna happen with flowers and words.
  • #151,793
  • May 23, 2017 2:22pm May 23, 2017 2:22pm
US foreign policy peace is not an option
  • #151,794
  • May 23, 2017 2:49pm May 23, 2017 2:49pm
Quoting Paintomaker
{quote} Agree. The ones who started this have lost control of what in a start was only a tactic for make unstable a region. Those master of puppets aren't going to be facing "our" justice anytime soon, but we can't let the people who have lost everything in Iraq, Palestina or Syria to take the justice for them killing inocents. That region has to be stabilized, and is not gonna happen with flowers and words.
i dont like to turn the discussion of this thread to politics especially that i am only here as a guest, but i dont agree with you on "have lost control". they wanted chaos and to weaken all powers that threaten israel in the middle east (iran, syria, hizbolla, next could be egypt which has something started by some mystery terrorist acts in sinai) at the same time bringing europe to its knees with the refugees crisis and egyptian pound jumped from 6 to 18 in less than a year what a coincidence), and draining russian blood and money by keeping it busy in syria. this is exactly what they are achieving, they have done it times and times again over the history since WW2. and how better to do all this by assigning someone else to do the dirty war (ksa and co sunnies vs iran and co shiites).
thats all from me about this
back to eurusd and clock ticking for it to go back to 1.05x
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #151,795
  • May 24, 2017 1:30am May 24, 2017 1:30am
Bears taken control on eurusd short term. Bulls filling up on retracement. Lets see. I join bears now at 1.119x with SL 1.126x
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #151,796
  • May 24, 2017 1:58am May 24, 2017 1:58am
I want to perform backtesting on 15 TF on MT4, but my oldest tick data goes to 1st August 2016, Is there anyone whose tick data goes back as far as 3-5 years on MT4?
  • #151,797
  • May 24, 2017 2:03am May 24, 2017 2:03am
Quoting Earleone
Bears taken control on eurusd short term. Bulls filling up on retracement. Lets see. I join bears now at 1.119x with SL 1.126x
Right there too...TP1 1.10x...but looking for more
  • #151,798
  • May 24, 2017 3:19am May 24, 2017 3:19am
That was it for a shallow European session. We have a quick watch-out 'just in case' ECB on the wires (not expecting much but it might be a good venue to send some small hints for June) for NY opening range.

Oil on the spotlight this week and today till the Minutes which will mark the start of June hikes flows.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,799
  • May 24, 2017 3:28am May 24, 2017 3:28am
Quoting shabirsaleem
I want to perform backtesting on 15 TF on MT4, but my oldest tick data goes to 1st August 2016, Is there anyone whose tick data goes back as far as 3-5 years on MT4?
You can download tickstory little.
  • #151,800
  • May 24, 2017 3:30am May 24, 2017 3:30am
Quoting Earleone
Bears taken control on eurusd short term. Bulls filling up on retracement. Lets see. I join bears now at 1.119x with SL 1.126x
not so sure about this. in the past 3 weeks almost everyday I thought the same and it keeps on rallying. falls are shallow and spikes are big.
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