Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

Hi Winston, thanks for your view

You have a differant median line to mine, but I notice both of ours are projecting a downtrend.

I have been studying median lines for approximately 1 month, but I honestly don't think my median lines drawn were invalid, and the yellow median line set was in control and had been previously tested too. My understanding is that when an energy point comes and price hits it, price will either have a strong reaction to it and bounce or price will plow through it. Taking the direction of price into considering it was my opinion that price would bounce there ....and tbh it did somewhat before several bars later blowing through. I took that position on my real account. I shouldn't lol and have gone back to demo. Also I am wondering if there are certain times with this method we should not take trades, I see no mention of this? I took this at gmt night time. does this method of trading call for trades only to be taken during London/FF/US trading hours.

I'd agree with you thought that you can't just wack on a median line everywhere and take positions each time price touches it and expect to be profitable. Currently after my first month on demo I ended the month in actual profits but tbh this may have been down to luck because by the end of the demo most trades were failing as tbh it seems like that was what I was doing. This prompted me to study harder ...and I saw the reason a lot of them failed. The hardest thing about this median line stuff imo is finding a valid C. The ones I took that did work out well I decided to study them and noticed they tended to be forced pivots [previous price reaction in that area] and the actual pivot structure was similar to how greg fisher briefly describes how to draw them in his free book. I decided to buy gregs full book. It went into a bit more detail about the pivots and gave more examples which helped me clarify his actual method of defining pivots as before i noticed there was some situations where i wasn't sure what he would do. Other than though i'm not really too sure if greg fishers material by itself has enough to actually be profitable. There was little to nothing or where to actually initiate orders.

I studied more of tims material too, and tbh I prefer to take positions when both tims conditions and gregs have both been fulfilled. I am not even sure I know all tims conditions tbh as I only have access to the free material. I notice you say that you don't think there is enough free stuff out there to be profitable. You may be right on that, I guess time will tell. I didn't get a whole lot out of the free youtube videos tbh, but the CME videos I found quite educating ..and feel like quite a few pieces of the puzzle are to be found there. Again, I'm not really sure if it will be enough to be profitable though, I may end up needing to buy access to tims site.

I am a bit confused tbh over what timeframe to use. Sometimes an entry is valid on h1 or h4 ....but it's just that h4 will have less bars till the median line is reached. I took a eur/usd h1 entry a few days ago [long] ...and looking at pricing structure it met my conditions on h1, but not on h4 ... so i took it on h1 basis even though given the large gap from MHL to median line you would think h4 would be the most suitable timeframe to use. My demo account then ended [30 days had elapsed] and it threw away my position unfortunately. atm price has made good progress to the upside....., however if we use tims method of trailing each swing lows with a stop I would have got stopped out on h1 with around 1:3 RR ...but if I had trailed each h4 swing low with a stop I wouldn't have been stopped out yet. So what timeframe to use and on what timeframe to trail swing lows is a bit confusing imo

It's good you've put much thought into this. There's a lot of misinformation about median lines and for that matter trading in general. I've studied Tim's free stuff and have Gregg's stuff also. I have a monthly subscription to Shane Blankenship's thrice weekly webinars. His material is extensive but shed's light on median lines not available anywhere else. As Shane says everything is in swings. I hear all the time that getting point "C" correct is the key but I disagree. Once you understand the nature of swings getting a proper median line is second nature. But the median line is only a tool and the lines are not triggers for trading. Price action is the missing link and it is this which most are relatively ignorant of. I was until I received formal education.

Here is an experimental trade I just took on demo,

The inspiration and logic for calling this C pivot came from some obscure 1 post thread on babypips.


edit: just noticed some potential support to the downside. I shall move to BE should price reach that far...

Your chart is zoomed out so the OHLC cannot be seen. Therefore I can only assume you might be trading purely from line touches. The chart below is the same chart as yours but I have zoomed in so I can clearly see the OHLC of each bar. I could zoom out one more click and still be ok but this will be easier to see and explain. Recent PA shows price is starting up in a newish uptrend. As you know this pair has been down-trending especially by looking at the daily chart.

The swing between the blue lines is the largest reactive swing on this frame. The swing between the green lines is the next largest. A swing occurs when a new high is formed in an uptrend. The white hashed TLs represent impulse moves. I cannot draw point "C" as you have since price really hasn't started to move down yet so my "C" is as shown. Additionally my fork is a Schiff. After every impulse move a reactive move is expected before the next impulse. The forks attempt to frame the reactive moves in the context of the impulse moves. Therefore one strategy is to consider waiting for price to pullback or react after an impulse move and go for the next impulse move.

Being able to see the price action clearly (OHLC) is important because entries often occur with specific PA in the context of your fork and in this case the anticipated next impulse move. The light blue rectangle highlights a largish bearish bar at the right being taken out by price at the left. One might have bought the retrace around the red rectangle and gotten in on the last impulse wave.

Hi Winston, thankyou for the input you have given.

I zoomed out and took that screenshot so I could show the whole picture, because If I zoom in all the swing points wouldn't fit ..this trade is a bit of an experimental trade, I normally wait till much more price action confirmation before thinking about trading a C. Even though I am trading on demo I reduced my lot size significantly to reflect that this is experimental. It's just that I saw a babypips post of someone appearing to do what I just attempted and he posted a screenshot of his demo results on m1, and he had taken hundreds of trades that month with a 70+% win rate ..and he says he only takes this type of setup. He gave barely any details on how he actually did it though, but from the picture of the setup he posted I've took an educated guess.

and yes I agree, this trade definately goes against the grain in terms of classic price action

I may be wrong and can't trade like this, but it definitely looks like projecting a C in some cases is possible before it's formed.

Jesus ....look at those GAPS

not seen any this big for quite a while. I think I had a bit of a lucky escape tbh, all the positions that I was holding gapped in my favor. But there was some other trades that I had missed and would have taken them on friday had I seen them and these ones gapped against me BIG time.

I'm thinking now that unless a trade is like minimum 150+ pips from SL it's probably unwise to hold weekend.

does anyone here hold weekend with this method of trading?

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Warning Line resistance in the 2500 area?

There is also the chance price will use the first warning line to push it higher and up to the second warning line...where the true resistance may be found.

With price breaking through the 1st warning line and the 2500 price level in the same day, it looks like the 2nd warning line is the ideal target. A candle close for today above them both would be a strong indication for such.

aussie has been creeping in the catalin pitchfork

Does anyone know what is a Super Pitchfork?

http://www.cabafx.com/trading-ebooks...ed%20Maher.pdf ? Or from book "The Best Trendline Methods of Alan Andrews and Five New Trendline Techniques"

Thanks bingo!

the extract definition ..

from memory i read somewhere that it can also be a monster pf which captures trend as a whole

Head & Shoulders Pattern Setup

thats a reversal pattern, there's nothing to reverse

Please have a look at this plot guys and give me some guidence. Second swing low was adjusted to describe the movement better.