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5 years and still no strategy

  • #2,021
  • May 20, 2017 12:44pm May 20, 2017 12:44pm
Here is a simple illustration (my chart) of what I wrote above.

Things to consider :
The open-low range in comparison to open-high range in bullish trending days.
The open-high range in comparison to the open-low range in bearish trending days.

Price moving one direction away from the open in trending days.

Activity of the price upon breaking out of the yesterdays high/low

The second dotted vertical line of each day (London open)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 111111111111111.JPG Size: 125 KB
The truth is hidden from you
  • #2,022
  • May 20, 2017 12:45pm May 20, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Since you're scoffing... I can clearly see you don't know how to think and therefore have no use for the tools. If you can't understand how to use them then the problem during analysis is with your skill not the usefulness of the tools. No one said it's the holy grail. The holy grail comes from mastering everything. Not scoffing at things beyond your comprehension.
In a noob and sucker forum, all i can do is scoffing.
And i couldn't care less what you think about trading or the nonsense volume.
  • #2,023
  • May 20, 2017 12:50pm May 20, 2017 12:50pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} LOL. I am laughing, but not to be offensive. I am laughing because your generic trading plan show no entry or exit. You can understand anything you want, but you only make money by pulling the trigger. I have never seen a market understanding that showed me that. You might. You might even have something like that, but I had to invent something that fit into my realm of reality just a bit more than merely understanding. Thanks though. Nice rookie background about market structure. Meaning for your bank account, but nice for the classroom....
MzVega is correct. He didn't say TA is useless. Only that many retail traders over-emphasize it's usefulness because they don't actually understand the market(FA and market dynamics) and that is often what ultimately slaughters them. I use both and it gives me another dimension of understanding that requires understanding both. Arguing TA v. FA is silly when TA * FA = Holy Grail.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,024
  • May 20, 2017 12:54pm May 20, 2017 12:54pm
Quoting The-Flipper
{quote} In a noob and sucker forum, all i can do is scoffing. And i couldn't care less what you think about trading or the nonsense volume.
And I couldn't care less about what YOU think about anything; since you clearly don't do much of it. If you can't find a use for something then that's your own problem. Move along kiddo.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,025
  • May 20, 2017 1:07pm May 20, 2017 1:07pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Yes, but why the MACD? Now that you are trading 1/X find an indicator that uses an alert for its 0 or 50 line. As you advance, you will want to find the one that alerts at your internal indicator crossover. 60 periods on 1M chart = 12 periods on 5M chart = 4 periods on 15M chart = 2 periods on 30M chart = 1 period on 1HR chart. First define the chart you want to trade that shows the most consistent trades with whatever moving average you define as being consistent. The higher time frame has a larger sample size per candle, so the average...
I used to love m1 zoomed out in order to get a more precise feeling for the price activity : ranges, tops and bottoms of swings. The problem though was that I used to get stoped out too often. And since I'm trying to capture as much of the day as possible. I found it much easier to view the charts from m15. The same tops and bottoms i identified on m15, are simply harder for the price to break. And I realised that its better to sacrifice more price data, for more valid price data for my purpose.

Now that I remember, I had a literal addiction to monitoring m1 when i started out with binary options. It was imposible for me to wait for even the m5 candle to form.... But I learned from mistakes, and my chart watching addiction faded away (plus I didn't have so much time as I used to).
The truth is hidden from you
  • #2,026
  • May 20, 2017 1:24pm May 20, 2017 1:24pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Sounds somewhat familiar. When I finally finished, my goal was consistently. So, I can black out the candles on my chart and my indicators will show me the entries and exits. When you get to that level, you are not watching candles anymore. You are trading probability.
Why not just use ohlc western bars though? Personally I love them because its easier to view the charts with them.
I assume that you blackout candles in order to avoid confusion of all the individual bullish/bearish candles.
The truth is hidden from you
  • #2,027
  • Edited 2:06pm May 20, 2017 1:53pm | Edited 2:06pm
Quoting VEEFX
{image}
It's an inference. If there is more tick volatility then you can infer that there is more volume because more individually sized orders are being placed. It's a measure of the 'volume' of volatility. A sort of hybrid indicator because there is no actual volume indicator. Is it perfect? No. Of course not. Exceptions do exist. But it's the best we've got and it's more precise than having nothing. If volume is ACTUALLY high and it doesn't show on an indicator that uses tick volatility to infer volume then the price is trending and none of the big players want a piece of it... If volume is ACTUALLY low and it doesn't show on an indicator that uses tick volatility then many of the big players took a secret holiday and none of us heard about it. Logic's a wonderful thing.

A single doji/single candle is still multiple candles on a lower timeframe and the displacement of volume within the candle is just a composite view of that lower timeframe. It is basically a way of summarizing smaller timeframes and their movements with more precision without getting too locked up in the signals. The usefulness is, as always, at the discretion of the trader and their ability to find a use for the information.

MaxenshteinD would probably find it of particular use because of what he said on the previous page; The signals on the smaller timeframes mislead him even though the m1 chart contains more information than the m15 chart. A volume indicator carries the structure of his m1 chart to his m15 chart without distracting him with the signals.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,028
  • May 20, 2017 2:17pm May 20, 2017 2:17pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Right or wrong, if your mind thinks this, and your heart feels this, then how can you possibly trade for profit? If it is true, what are you going to do about it? If it is not true, you are letting your imagination create a fake fear. I would just kick it out of my head and move forward. If there is any truth to it, then CYA on your trades. Obviously you have no other choice, except to quit. If you think you can, or think you cannot, you are correct.
He trades his statistical history believing that there are times when he has a higher probability of being profitable even if he doesn't quite understand why that is. For instance; Every January 1st he might have shitty trades so he considers January 1st to be a statistically crappy day to trade. The problem with his method is he would have to live at least 100 years to have a large enough sample size to realize any statistical significance from his trades over an annual time-frame. He's compiled information from 5+ years and he's already down to only a few weeks throughout the year which were coincidentally extra-profitable for him. It's only a matter of time before those weeks demonstrate negative returns... and then he will realize he spent years compiling mostly irrelevant datasets that he couldn't possibly hope to create significance out of in an effort to find the hidden edge. The problem is he's looking too far back and not nearly forward enough.

He's still searching for the missing link but he hasn't discovered it yet. We've all been there.

I hope he finds what he's looking for.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,029
  • May 20, 2017 2:23pm May 20, 2017 2:23pm
Quoting dkrock
This is how it looks to trade probability. I took the candles out, because they do not matter. The news did not matter. The support/resistance did not matter. The Fibonacci lines did not matter. The pivot lines did not matter. The highs and lows did not matter. The consolidation did not matter. I don't get all the pips, but as you can see, it does not matter. Imagine doing this from pair to pair and time frame to time frame. Or, keep trading those lines and reading the news. This is just one day from one pair and one time frame. These are my backup,...
Looks good, congrats. Curious as to what the drawdown on each of those trades was...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #2,030
  • May 20, 2017 2:30pm May 20, 2017 2:30pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} That's cool. Nice to meet you. I excel at IQ. Mine is higher than the vast majority of people. Have you taken an IQ test? If so, then you know it is mostly about pattern recognition. Therefore, I excel at seeing patterns, both in behavior, and physical. My suggestion, based on my abilities, is for you to look at range trades, not trend trades. A trend is just an extended range on its time frame, but just another range on a higher time frame. Though really, I don't see the point of all the analysis you did. My analysis was based on moving...
Relativity is a complex thing for the ego to comprehend.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,031
  • May 20, 2017 2:36pm May 20, 2017 2:36pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Then you don't understand even a cent of what I do. Everything in bold is not applicable to me. I don't look beyond the previous CLOSED candle. I don;t look for hidden edge because EDGE does NOT exist in the market across any instrument with price over time. Application of a strategy turning in an Edge could be a possibility but I am personally yet to see documented proof and evidence of that for a minimum of 3 yrs. Even I i am looking at my stats, I am ONLY looking at the previous CLOSED candle... go chew on that :-) I have said repeatedly,...
It's staring you in the face. You just think you're smarter than it. If you understood that a 'fool' is just a person who has been exposed to different patterns... you'd have a much easier time of comprehending what you're overlooking.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,032
  • May 20, 2017 2:42pm May 20, 2017 2:42pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} None. My entry is my exit and I specifically target areas where price is ready to move vertically in my projected direction. My stop is just above/below the last high/low. Normally it is never hit because I will get an exit/entry to that direction. A loss is basically the spread and occasionally a bit extra is the signal candle spiked. A average loss is 6 pips, but some make it to 12 pips or so if I am testing the signal as a head fake. I am almost always in the right direction, but occasionally the market is in range mode and the turn eats...
It's much easier to fold on most of your hands when the market doesn't notice you're playing conservatively and so it doesn't fold when you actually do call.

It usually wins the blind, sometimes the flop... but it always goes all-in on a losing hand. The market is a terrible poker player.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,033
  • May 20, 2017 2:51pm May 20, 2017 2:51pm
Quoting dkrock
This is how it looks to trade probability. I took the candles out, because they do not matter. The news did not matter. The support/resistance did not matter. The Fibonacci lines did not matter. The pivot lines did not matter. The highs and lows did not matter. The consolidation did not matter. I don't get all the pips, but as you can see, it does not matter. Imagine doing this from pair to pair and time frame to time frame. Or, keep trading those lines and reading the news. This is just one day from one pair and one time frame. These are my backup,...
Your indicator doesnt tell when a new trend emerge. Most likely it still require trader's experience in order to spot a trend change.
I guess most likely your indi is a lag indicator.
Those numbers are your own measurement, not the indi's.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #2,034
  • Edited 3:06pm May 20, 2017 2:56pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting yousername
{quote} Your indicator doesnt tell when a new trend emerge. Most likely it still require trader's experience in order to spot a trend change. I guess most likely your indi is a lag indicator. Those numbers are your own measurement, not the indi's.
Your brain is a lag indicator. It takes how many nano-seconds for you to realize you're late to every party you've ever been to?

A 'lag indicator' only lags as much as you let it. You can have a lag indicator calibrated to identify an emerging trend within 1-second of it happening.

It doesn't require trading experience to spot a trend change. It just requires trading experience to learn how to use an indicator to spot a trend change.

Traders at a desk and retail traders use very different toolboxes. They're fighting in entirely different weight classes. A pro-trader needs to try to win their knockout fights. A retail-trader just needs to win enough fights to pay the bills without getting beaten up too badly and maybe get into the professional arena.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,035
  • May 20, 2017 2:56pm May 20, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting VEEFX
Just turned on CBS and BeeGees was right on "We are living in the world of fools trying to break us down"... perhaps so appropriate to this forum
LOL
Tower of Babel at the finest.
If i meet you guys, i always make sure my gun is ready before some one try to kill me because of our little differences.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #2,036
  • May 20, 2017 2:56pm May 20, 2017 2:56pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} No offense, but allow me a second to respond. Oscillating indicators are shaped by moving averages. This means that from indicator to indicator there are slight variations between them when using the same number of periods, or moving average to design them. The stochastics indicator tends to run out of range on its top and bottom, and therefore it cannot trail price from the corresponding moving average to its apex very effectively. The MACD is measuring the distance between the two input moving averages and showing how far and close they...
LOL I was actually joking. Oscillators show a little bit of momentum thats it. Theyre otherwise absolute dogshit
  • #2,037
  • May 20, 2017 3:07pm May 20, 2017 3:07pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Your brain is a lag indicator. It takes how many nano-seconds for you to realize you're late to every party you've ever been to? A 'lag indicator' only lags as much as you let it. You can have a lag indicator calibrated to identify an emerging trend within 1-second of it happening. It doesn't require trading experience to spot a trend change. It just requires trading experience to learn how to use an indicator to spot a trend change. Traders at a desk and retail traders use very different toolboxes. They're fighting in entirely different...
Roger roger
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #2,038
  • May 20, 2017 3:08pm May 20, 2017 3:08pm
Quoting VEEFX
{image}
Roger roger
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #2,039
  • May 20, 2017 3:11pm May 20, 2017 3:11pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} None. My entry is my exit and I specifically target areas where price is ready to move vertically in my projected direction. My stop is just above/below the last high/low. Normally it is never hit because I will get an exit/entry to that direction. A loss is basically the spread and occasionally a bit extra if the signal candle spiked. An average loss is 6 pips, but some make it to 12 pips or so if I am testing the signal as a head fake. I am almost always in the right direction, but occasionally the market is in range mode and the turn...
Interesting. So you basically never get hit for more than 12 pips, while you have the opportunity to lasso several multiples of that. Nice.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #2,040
  • May 20, 2017 3:13pm May 20, 2017 3:13pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} Interesting. So you basically never get hit for more than 12 pips, while you have the opportunity to lasso several multiples of that. Nice.
I thought everyone knew by now how CrucialPoint was a millionaire... And here I was just trying to have a fun discussion about TA/FA.

If we knew you were all just chasing after the money then we could've fixed that problem weeks ago...
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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