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5 years and still no strategy

  • #2,001
  • May 20, 2017 1:04pm May 20, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} It means nothing. That is why candlestick trading is a joke. One candle is sample size 1. If you want to risk your money on the shape of one candle on one time frame, then you are a fool. That is ancient trading and extremely unreliable. There is 0.00 probability on one candle. On my chart, using multiple candles to determine market direction, your doji is simply part of a consolidation area in a downtrend. No big deal. Sorry. Candlestick trading drives me nuts. {image}
Its subjective matter. I have open mind to anyone strategy either it's volume base strategy or candlestick strategy or anything. I like to keep the option open so i can take advantage of it. And i also dont want to give early judgement until i approve or disaprove it on my own term. I have my own proven strategy and maybe if i combine with someone else strategy maybe it can be a perfect match for a lifetime.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #2,002
  • May 20, 2017 1:04pm May 20, 2017 1:04pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} The only thing I'm curious about: Why do you bother with random entries when you know this? k
I am multitasking (;
  • #2,003
  • May 20, 2017 1:16pm May 20, 2017 1:16pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} I hope you do not mind, but I completely disagree. Volume is essential. In the stock market it is how you make money. In Forex, it is how you make money. However, you guys are looking the volume of the individual candles, when you should be looking at the volume of multiple candles. You can do it two ways. Trade one time frame by looking at multiple candles from it. Or convert that higher time frame candle onto a smaller time frame so you can see the volume inside it. That is what I do. I make my own intraday swings from the daily volume....
Thanks for sharing your insight on your volume strategy. Could you provide a screenshot of your volume base multiple timeframe strategy please? I apreciate it.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #2,004
  • May 20, 2017 1:18pm May 20, 2017 1:18pm
Quoting The-Flipper
Conclusion: Accurate data (price) + false & fake data (Volume) = Holy Grail ROFL
I do consider it extra information.

Market activity is the fuel of price movement imho. I understand what you're saying: It is perfectly possible to simply follow the price, observe how fast it changes and act accordingly in the trade or (noncontinuously) bet on those instruments that display a stronger movement. I just find it useful to know how much fuel is in the tank. Less stress 4 me.

Also, one can make some uncannily precise entries based on the properties of VWAP. This quantity appears to represent a collective position of the participants in a given time. When one applies it to a trend from its beginning as an (anchored) moving average, this quantity will be frequently revisited via pullbacks.

k
  • #2,005
  • May 20, 2017 1:18pm May 20, 2017 1:18pm
Quoting hicosoft
{quote} Substantial majority of them are not investors: they are traders or speculators. Trading rules, price mechanisms are imprinted into price charts. Nobody has ever published them on the retail side of stock markets. It would not just make sense at all. You have two options: Discover them and confirm your discovery. It costs a lot of time, so use them for your benefits or sell them to others for their benefits as well (price them accordingly to limit the number of subscribers). Those who adopt such rules and rigorously obey them are traders....
Tertium non datur... an elegant way of highlighting the paradox that makes us rich(or poor depending on your frame of reference).
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,006
  • May 20, 2017 1:23pm May 20, 2017 1:23pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I am multitasking (;
“Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.”
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,007
  • May 20, 2017 1:30pm May 20, 2017 1:30pm
Its interesting that in a forex market, so many traders fixate on the word Volume. I don't think the majority of traders here at FF understand the distinction between volume, value and real demand. Often I see many traders use the terms interchangeably to mean the same thing. It's interesting how TA strategies have nothing to do with the way in which Auction Markets actually operate

J.Peter.Steidlmayer Markets and Market logic
Chapter 3 p.15

In order to understand the market's inefficiency, consider the reality of how markets function. A normal preoccupation of the short time- frame participant is to focus on the dominant concern or news focus. The dominant concern causes the market to be balanced in the eyes of the shortest timeframe participants. It is the short timeframe participants who normally transact the vast quantity of total volume. But while the short timeframe participants transact up to 90% of the volume, their presence does not change the market. Thus, this dominant concern may or may not be a dominant concern for the longer timeframe participants, since it may or may not be of major significance to the supply and demand situation in the framework of the total marketplace. It is the focusing of the short timeframe participants on a relatively unimportant piece of news, a dominant concern that is not of major significance that causes price excess. In other words, a minor piece of news - a fact or perception that might be only 2% of the total timeframe decisions of the marketplace -will motivate 80-90% of the day's or weeks trade, since the short timeframe participants, who are the majority of the market, focus on it. Their preoccupation can create an opportunity when it is considered an excess for the longer timeframe participants. This leads one to wonder, how can all prices be equal, and how can all prices represent value when short timeframe overcompensation presents an opportunity for a more realistic valuation in a larger timeframe?

Cisco-Futures (Jones)
Demand: Day Traders and Swing/Position Traders:
A (day) trader who is out of the market by the close generates no lasting demand. One who holds for an extended period does create demand. Within a day, the local-member may be in and out fifty times, long or short with equal probability. No demand created there! Public traders often act directionally. They buy and hold. Their actions are often due to chart formations (with which the members are also familiar!). Within a day, the public can drive prices away from the balance so prized by members. If the public is successful, a trend begins. More often we fail, leading to an aborted trend or a failed breakout which quickly crumbles. (Commercial members often have quite a lot to do with the failure, called commercial capping. Capping is discussed in detail in the text Value Based Power Trading, pg 33 - 47).
When 90% of intraday volume, doesn't contain the volume demand that moves the market, you may want to reevaluate how heavily your trading analysis revolves around volume
Just a little food for thought............

Those who understand the condition of the market (where price over time is building value) are conveyed an advantage from which they can profit whereas those who focus on prices against each other must assume randomness and no understanding.

Price and Value
Most investors and traders distinguish between understandable market situations where price and value differ, and the organized markets, where price and value are always the same. Unknown to most participants, all markets not just the unorganized, everyday markets -- have a universal commonality: price and value differ in all markets, and the underlying principles which motivate buying and selling are identical. (Most investors and traders in organized markets inherently understand this, but it was most notably presented in Graham and Dodds Securities Analysis.) Further, every market reflects the collective needs and goals of its participants through its range of activity. In order to understand any marketplace, one needs to separate and isolate that part of the range which motivated the activity of each category of participant.

But while most market examinations begin by focusing on the participants, a true understanding of market logic necessitates taking a step back and examining and understanding the real purpose of a market, and the importance which knowledge of this purpose has in all market understanding. Understanding the purpose of the marketplace is the key to being able to benefit from it. However, it is very easy to be misled and confuse the outward results of the marketplace that price is rationing supply and demand with its purpose, the reason it exists.

J.Peter.Steidlmayer Markets and Market logic
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,008
  • May 20, 2017 1:45pm May 20, 2017 1:45pm
Quoting mzvega
The Purpose of a Market A marketplace exists solely to facilitate trade. This is its only purpose. And this fact is the starting point and a key concept to grasp when analyzing or participating in any marketplace. As mentioned above, to understand any marketplace one also must grasp the needs and goals which motivate its participants. In a marketplace, the needs and goals which motivate participants are expressed in their continued buying and/or selling.
This is what I was saying in my earlier post. If you read and truly grasp the principles in this post you will be understand the market and why price moves and why volume is important to its behaviour.

I highly encourage you to read and reread the posts above by Mzvega.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #2,009
  • May 20, 2017 1:46pm May 20, 2017 1:46pm
Quoting The-Flipper
Conclusion: Accurate data (price) + false & fake data (Volume) = Holy Grail ROFL
There's more to it than just that. But; it's beyond our capability in this forum to teach individuals how to think. The best that can be done is give individuals that know how to think useful tools to expedite the process. Since you're scoffing... I can clearly see you don't know how to think and therefore have no use for the tools. If you can't understand how to use them then the problem during analysis is with your skill not the usefulness of the tools.

No one said it's the holy grail. The holy grail comes from mastering everything. Not scoffing at things beyond your comprehension.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,010
  • May 20, 2017 1:58pm May 20, 2017 1:58pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} No offense, but allow me a second to respond. Oscillating indicators are shaped by moving averages. This means that from indicator to indicator there are slight variations between them when using the same number of periods, or moving average to design them. The stochastics indicator tends to run out of range on its top and bottom, and therefore it cannot trail price from the corresponding moving average to its apex very effectively. The MACD is measuring the distance between the two input moving averages and showing how far and close they...
I used a fun hack for MACD.
Say I'm trading the m1 chart.
I have a 60 s.m.a. on it.
Now im tired of tilting my head to see how far or close is price in relation to my s.m.a.
What do i do?

I set my macd to 1,60,1
Short ma to 1 (representing the price itself)
Long ma to 60 (the moving average i have on my chart)
Smoothing to 1 (cause i dont need any).

Now on my macd, the zero line is the 60 moving average from my chart. The macd signal line is showing me how far or close price is in reference to my moving average.
When macd croses the zero line, it means the price closed my sma.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The truth is hidden from you
  • #2,011
  • May 20, 2017 1:59pm May 20, 2017 1:59pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} 95% of people trade lines, and 95% of people lose. Instead of trying to figure out which line is which, I would recommend abandoned that method and learning something else.
Fine. Levels are meaning less. Volume is nonsense. Candles, also nonsense. Fibs are made up numbers. MACD, MA's, Sto..etc are lagging. Whats left. I'm confused.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #2,012
  • May 20, 2017 2:05pm May 20, 2017 2:05pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} No offense, but allow me a second to respond. Oscillating indicators are shaped by moving averages. This means that from indicator to indicator there are slight variations between them when using the same number of periods, or moving average to design them. The stochastics indicator tends to run out of range on its top and bottom, and therefore it cannot trail price from the corresponding moving average to its apex very effectively. The MACD is measuring the distance between the two input moving averages and showing how far and close they...
Indicators with such high settings should only be used on higher timeframes(4H+) by amateurs to identify macro-trends if they don't understand FA or are just learning a pair. The problem is that amateurs try to use them on lower timeframes to trade when the 1/X settings would be more appropriate in their usefulness.

I, personally, only use indicators with alerts since I've begun to become bored with watching the charts when I know I don't want to do anything with them anyway.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,013
  • May 20, 2017 2:10pm May 20, 2017 2:10pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} Fine. Levels are meaning less. Volume is nonsense. Candles, also nonsense. Fibs are made up numbers. MACD, MA's, Sto..etc are lagging. Whats left. I'm confused.
The reason why stock exchanges still have quote boards showing open high low current price (close) for the day.
I guess originally they traded just based on that. Afterwards candlesticks/bars were invented to visually represent the data. All in all people who mastered the basics, or didn't. Started inventing all funny things in order to predict tops and bottoms rather than simply follow the price. Cause predicting reversals is more fun to the ego, plus its an attempt to solve fear of uncertainty by attempting to think that a trader is able to predict when is the best time to enter/exit
The truth is hidden from you
  • #2,014
  • May 20, 2017 2:11pm May 20, 2017 2:11pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} Fine. Levels are meaning less. Volume is nonsense. Candles, also nonsense. Fibs are made up numbers. MACD, MA's, Sto..etc are lagging. Whats left.
Market Understanding........

Many retail traders (technical analyst's) confuse "charting" with actual "market understanding".
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,015
  • May 20, 2017 2:15pm May 20, 2017 2:15pm
Quoting MaxenshteinD
{quote} The reason why stock exchanges still have quote boards showing open high low current price (close) for the day. I guess originally they traded just based on that. Afterwards candlesticks/bars were invented to visually represent the data. All in all people who mastered the basics, or didn't. Started inventing all funny things in order to predict tops and bottoms rather than simply follow the price. Cause predicting reversals is more fun to the ego, plus its an attempt to solve fear of uncertainty by attempting to think that a trader is able...
You telling me. I traded for 10yrs with just a pen in one hand, and my trading cards in the other. I had a clock, and a board with open, high, low, net change, estimated volume and the last 7 prices at my disposal also, but when it got busy I rarely got a chance to look at.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #2,016
  • May 20, 2017 2:22pm May 20, 2017 2:22pm
Quoting mzvega
Its interesting that in a forex market, so many traders fixate on the word Volume. I don't think the majority of traders here at FF understand the distinction between volume, value and real demand. Often I see many traders use the terms interchangeably to mean the same thing. It's interesting how TA strategies have nothing to do with the way in which Auction Markets actually operate J.Peter.Steidlmayer Markets and Market logic Chapter 3 p.15 In order to understand the market's inefficiency, consider the reality of how markets function. A normal...
This is precisely why I said that I equate enlightenment with success. It grants the keys to the kingdom. It amazes me at times that the answer is violently screaming in people's faces but they don't recognize it for what it is.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,017
  • May 20, 2017 2:24pm May 20, 2017 2:24pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} Fine. Levels are meaning less. Volume is nonsense. Candles, also nonsense. Fibs are made up numbers. MACD, MA's, Sto..etc are lagging. Whats left. I'm confused.
Price is every thing....
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -489
  • #2,018
  • May 20, 2017 2:29pm May 20, 2017 2:29pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} Fine. Levels are meaning less. Volume is nonsense. Candles, also nonsense. Fibs are made up numbers. MACD, MA's, Sto..etc are lagging. Whats left. I'm confused.
The unknown is all that's left. Use it... because many people don't know how. They are afraid of the infinite abyss. As Charles Manson said; if you've got their fear then you've got their power.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,019
  • May 20, 2017 2:36pm May 20, 2017 2:36pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} You telling me. I traded for 10yrs with just a pen in one hand, and my trading cards in the other. I had a clock, and a board with open, high, low, net change, estimated volume and the last 7 prices at my disposal also, but when it got busy I rarely got a chance to look at.
Personally lately I focused only on the following:
The OHLC of the day. I do use m15 to visually see what the price is doing, and to find tops and bottoms. But I view the chart only in the context of the current day, and the last day.
Open - if price is above the open, I only look towards entering a long position. If the current price is below the daily opening price I only seek to enter short positions.

High- price will either retrace from it, or break above it and move higher. If it breaks above the last daily high, than its already above the daily opening price. Therefore I go long anticipating a continuation.

Low - price will either retrace from it, or break below it and move lower. If it breaks below the daily low, than its already below the daily opening price. Therefore I go short, anticipating a continuation.

Close - Simply the current price.

Yesterdays High - assuming that the yesterday's low wasn't yet updated (broken lower). Than the current day becomes the outside day. Or in short its a bullish engulfing.

Yesterdays Low - assuming that the yesterday's high wasn't yet updated (broken higher). Than the current day becomes the outside day. Or in short its a bearish engulfing.


Time : Im anticipating the driving force behind a trend to begin at the session's opening times (or closing). Mainly the close of sydney at 06:00 gmt (it's usually a whipsawing consolidation before that). The open of London 08:00 gmt, the open of New York 13:00 gmt, and the open of Wall Street 14:30 gmt.

When New York closes, I expect a retracement from the current trend due to profit taking.

Average Daily Range : I can't measure different pairs to each other in pips. Since 20 pips for one pair might be the normal daily range, while for another pair 20 pips is just 10% of the average daily range.
I measure the average daily range for the past 20 days (average ammount of business days in a month, i base numbers only on the most logical ones related to the real world to thr best of my knowledge).

If a pair moved 120% of its adr of the last 20 days, than it usually moved In an extremely one directional trend.
If a pair moved only 40% of its adr by the time of 15 gmt than usually its intraday movement was a simple whipsaw.

I only seek to find trending days, the days which shoot off in one direction and continue it through out the day

Futhermore a 5 pip open-low range, with a 70 pip open-high range (in context of the current day, daily candle (from sydney open to new york close). Tells me that the bulls nearly had no ressistance at all.
The truth is hidden from you
  • #2,020
  • May 20, 2017 2:39pm May 20, 2017 2:39pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Yes, but why the MACD? Now that you are trading 1/X find an indicator that uses an alert for its 0 or 50 line. As you advance, you will want to find the one that alerts at your internal indicator crossover. 60 periods on 1M chart = 12 periods on 5M chart = 4 periods on 15M chart = 2 periods on 30M chart = 1 period on 1HR chart. First define the chart you want to trade that shows the most consistent trades with whatever moving average you define as being consistent. The higher time frame has a larger sample size per candle, so the average...
Why did you give up on the 1m? Look for the beginning of a high TF trend, apex of an opposite medium TF range, and beginning of a low TF trend. The 1m TF is only unreliable if you aren't filtering the signals for high TF confluence and pullbacks on an intermediate TF.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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