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5 years and still no strategy

  • #1,921
  • May 19, 2017 8:39pm May 19, 2017 8:39pm
Have not seen Nealpek for the past couple of days. Hope he is doing well!

Regards
  • #1,922
  • May 19, 2017 8:47pm May 19, 2017 8:47pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} volume is nothing but ticks going up and down which represents extreme indecisiveness in the marketplace. It gives no indication whether the next candle will go up or down.... maybe wicks on the doji reveal more on the direction than volume. volume is USELESS in retail fx... just my 2 cents :-
And there it is. The most ill informed post on FF. congrats .. to be admired in a way.
  • #1,923
  • May 19, 2017 9:33pm May 19, 2017 9:33pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Perhaps it's been a long week for me... are you agreeing or disagreeing with me?
Disagreeing bigtime. Volume is everything
  • #1,924
  • May 19, 2017 9:41pm May 19, 2017 9:41pm
Story about Elliot Impulse Wave

1. Once upon a time there's a fuck boy. Fuck boy loves to fuck and kill around. Out of the blue he killed some one next to him.
2. He stopped for a moment and see the blood on his hand and reconcile what he had done. However he enjoy doing it.
3. So he continue killing every body he sees
4. He stopped again and became cold, agitated. Moved back and forth like a fucktard [bigger correction than the 2nd correction). He starting to get exhausted but the fire in him draw the devil out again.
5. So he continued again with all of his strength, killing every one he can see. However not as much as the 3rd wave.
Suddenly his energy depleted and died slowly.

The end.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #1,925
  • May 19, 2017 10:40pm May 19, 2017 10:40pm
The trend ends when stochastics is oversold/overbought - this is 80 or 20
also the macd that crosses over.
  • #1,926
  • May 19, 2017 10:51pm May 19, 2017 10:51pm
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Come on GURUS and freakout answer: Tell me when a trend starts and when a trend ends? If you are using candlesticks show me how a candlestick determines when a trend starts and when it ends. How does S/R determine a trend? Also tell me are trends random or predictable? No TE required.
Starts and ends near where liquidity gaps do. Complicated answer though.
  • #1,927
  • May 19, 2017 11:11pm May 19, 2017 11:11pm
New trend or maybe trend continuation appears after a prolong consolidation period.

consolidation
kənˌsləˈdāSH(ə)n/
noun

  1. 1.
    the action or process of making something stronger or more solid.
    "the permanent consolidation of peace"
  2. 2.
    the action or process of combining a number of things into a single more effective or coherent whole.
    "a consolidation of data within an enterprise

When the consolidation process completed and price breaks through to respective trend and then follow with a retracement that respect the upper/lower level of the consolidation phase area. That consolidation phase area becomes a solid ground to support the start of a new trend or trend continuation to respective trend.

If I may talk about religion of my faith.
Jesus' resurrection consolidates his disappointed appostles after His death on the cross. His resurrection strengthening their faith and questioning their own reality. After the consolidation phase ended they became solid ground and starts the explosion of the spreading of the Gospel (a new trend emerged)

This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #1,928
  • May 19, 2017 11:40pm May 19, 2017 11:40pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thx. Do you think bull/bear trap could be systematically programmed to work 51+% of the time? if yes, would you mind sharing the logical rules here? perhaps an Indicator or pattern out there which tells me sell of bull trap and buy on bear trap?
Not sure. You see, the interpretation depends on the context. Possibly with something fancier like machine learning or so. I don't know. I certainly don't need it.
k
  • #1,929
  • May 19, 2017 11:48pm May 19, 2017 11:48pm
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
Maybe I can help you with that...
In my case: 25 years of experience as a software engineer (routers, switches, control systems) and 7 years of experience in reverse engineering of price charts. Yes, I started from scratch, disqualified all strategies - stuck only to one idea: regular and hidden divergence. Discovered what all divergence trading experts have amazingly ignored.
Some of them promote RSI, while some other CCI, or MACD, or Stochatics... Who is right???
My answer is: Each of them is partially right. But, if you want to be right the whole 100% of the time you must use all of them at the same time. Yes, it sounds like a revolution and it is.
It has taken me the whole 7 years to research, develop some complex algorithms, test them, and improve and improve and improve.... Everything, except my precious trade secrets, is described there. Published 2 days ago. You can smell the paint... You might be the very first one to see it. No pictures, fancy effects, promises of instant profits, miracle indicators.... It requires a learning curve, adjusting yourself to my studies and tools - even to line drawing tools! No more dragging - patent pending. We are living in 21 century. Computers run trading algorithms, computers know what accuracy and precision is. Humans pretend to be smarter, that they can draw them anyhow... Computers also know how to deal with 10 indicators at the same time, how to combine their divergence signals, eliminate redundant, obsolete ones... Of course someone must teach them to do that. But once they learn they can do amazing things...
I have never looked for 50% accuracy, maybe at the very beginning that I already completely forgot. All the time I have been looking for 95-100% accuracy. This is why it has taken so long to get it to the stage of general availability.
So, if you want to become a master of your destiny, it is all in your hands...
Of course it is not for free, but if you compare it with other solutions at the same price, you may realize - it is almost for free.
All the best!
  • #1,930
  • May 19, 2017 11:58pm May 19, 2017 11:58pm
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Not sure. You see, the interpretation depends on the context. Possibly with something fancier like machine learning or so. I don't know. I certainly don't need it. k
You are a machine indeed
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #1,931
  • May 20, 2017 12:06am May 20, 2017 12:06am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Come on GURUS and freakout answer: Tell me when a trend starts and when a trend ends? If you are using candlesticks show me how a candlestick determines when a trend starts and when it ends. Also tell me are trends random or predictable? No TE required. There is no right or wrong answer.
I will give you the right answer:
1. It must reach a price target (e.g. in downtrend).
2. It must create positive regular divergence (PRD)
3. You must determine a chart formation for that PRD, its resistance, breakout and target price.
4. Must reach or exceed trigger price
5. Usually execute a solid throwback, tests some support, sometimes breaks out the negative direction, so the market maker could buy cheap
5. Pulls back and achieve the price target
6. Make a reversal (confirmation of price target, breakout of negative regular divergence -NRD- support line) or continuation (positive hidden divergence -PHD)
Few points still missing, but more or less, this way...
Happy?
  • #1,932
  • May 20, 2017 12:23am May 20, 2017 12:23am
Quoting hicosoft
{quote}... I have never looked for 50% accuracy, maybe at the very beginning that I already completely forgot. All the time I have been looking for 95-100% accuracy. This is why it has taken so long to get it to the stage of general availability.
I like that.

Quoting hicosoft
{quote}... Of course it is not for free, but if you compare it with other solutions at the same price, you may realize - it is almost for free.
If you're thinking of selling, then I don't like that. Make money trading dude, not sell your algo.
  • #1,933
  • May 20, 2017 12:36am May 20, 2017 12:36am
so why did the cable break stop dead in its tracks on last weeks close? who wanted to buy there? pretty weird eh? Just random probably..maybe there was a demand area there, or a moving average, or a fib, or some other hocus pocus, or maybe there is an algo that decided to buy there, who knows...just weird
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,934
  • May 20, 2017 12:59am May 20, 2017 12:59am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} The present and the future is algo v algo. There is no excuse that you don't have an algo running to beat the markets. It's your algo versus the rest of the world's algo. Algos rule the financial markets whether you like it or not.
This is not about an algo to beat the markets.
But, where you stand depends on where you sit.
  • #1,935
  • May 20, 2017 1:04am May 20, 2017 1:04am
it just beats the hell out of me why sometimes a market turns on a dime at a level, just some random level...I mean there are an unlimited number of levels you could plot on a chart, almost one at every price..highs, lows, opens, closes, weekly, monthly, daily, yearly, fibs, pivots, the list is endless...sometimes they get respect, sometimes not...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,936
  • Edited 2:33am May 20, 2017 1:15am | Edited 2:33am
Quoting PayTheLimit
it just beats the hell out of me why sometimes a market turns on a dime at a level, just some random level...I mean there are an unlimited number of levels you could plot on a chart, almost one at every price..highs, lows, opens, closes, weekly, monthly, daily, yearly, fibs, pivots, the list is endless...sometimes they get respect, sometimes not...
I love to see a SR level gets respected with doji/s and follow with a bigger candle to the opposite trend. Usually this occured during a retracement.

I bought exactly at that green candle after the market got respected with dojis. Furthermore before the doji appears, notice how those bear candles size shrink to a doji. That means losing bearish momentum. And that is my definition of bear trap, same apply to a bull trap.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #1,937
  • May 20, 2017 1:18am May 20, 2017 1:18am
Quoting yousername
{quote} I love to see a SR level gets respected with doji/s and follow with a bigger candle to the opposite trend. Usually this occured during a retracement. I bought exactly at that green candle after the market got respected with dojis. Furthermore before the doji appears, notice how those bear candles sizw shrink to a doji. That means losing bearish momentum. {image}
Market respected the SR with dojis and several long wick candles which followed with a strong bullish candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2017-05-20-13-17-15~01.png Size: 569 KB
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #1,938
  • May 20, 2017 1:21am May 20, 2017 1:21am
Quoting yousername
{quote} I love to see a SR level gets respected with doji/s and follow with a bigger candle to the opposite trend. Usually this occured during a retracement. I bought exactly at that green candle after the market got respected with dojis. Furthermore before the doji appears, notice how those bear candles sizw shrink to a doji. That means losing bearish momentum. {image}
weird eh?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,939
  • May 20, 2017 1:24am May 20, 2017 1:24am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} The present and the future is algo v algo. There is no excuse that you don't have an algo running to beat the markets. It's your algo versus the rest of the world's algo. Algos rule the financial markets whether you like it or not.
Show us your algo please. I wonder its wonder works.
Algo is just a set of instructions that has to follow. But it doesn't have the reasoning power and experience to filter out and wait for the best buy/sell setup. Human can do that if and only if they factor out the fear factor. Fear coludes the decision to pull the trigger. Algo wins in fear factor only because it doesnt fear. Anyhow all of this can be master with time and its a natural learning process.
This is not investment/trading advise. Will not hold accountable for loss
  • #1,940
  • May 20, 2017 1:30am May 20, 2017 1:30am
Quoting skyway
{quote} I like that. {quote} If you're thinking of selling, then I don't like that. Make money trading dude, not sell your algo.
I do not sell my software algorithms. I do sell my tools and strategy.
Same as every single software developer (e.g. Microsoft) is selling their products.
It requires quite different skills to teach university students how to design airplane and flight one.
Same difference might be between born to be a software engineer and born to be a trader.
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