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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,641
  • May 19, 2017 7:52am May 19, 2017 7:52am
Quoting goosebone
Kneejerk misinterpretation of Comey video shook the boat a little there. Shows just how precarious things are at current levels. Like a coin balanced on edge. Also offers a clue to how much Trump risk is weighing on dollar at the moment.
more to come.. like how did Cumey's computer info, after being fired, end up i Russian hands.

then you got Paul Ryan telling Mcarthy keep it in the family. after saying Putin pays trump b4 nomination.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,642
  • May 19, 2017 8:06am May 19, 2017 8:06am
Quoting gatorinla
with 1.1115 norm done. some R strength unknown 1.1185 um. the attraction to 1.1316 still valid. its fight would be against usdx 101.52 attraction stopping it. eu 1.1185 next rung for bulls to overcome, or not. atm level 1.1182. the eu may need to eat some Wheaties here lower. {image}
in S on that tap 1.1185
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,643
  • May 19, 2017 8:36am May 19, 2017 8:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} in S on that tap 1.1185 {image}
stop??
  • #151,644
  • May 19, 2017 8:38am May 19, 2017 8:38am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Expecting a furter and sharp increase of volatility in currencies and commodities starting as soon as today US session.. sisse
I see what you mean. Popcorn mode for me today it seems.
  • #151,645
  • May 19, 2017 8:51am May 19, 2017 8:51am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} stop??
i had one already stopped 4 pips 1/8 %. the next one 1/4 for 27 pips.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,646
  • May 19, 2017 8:51am May 19, 2017 8:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} in S on that tap 1.1185
S? short? here your SL and TP?
thanks
  • #151,647
  • May 19, 2017 9:03am May 19, 2017 9:03am
All thats clear to me about this risk off move is that nothing is very clear to me. I have got to be looking in the wrong places and coming up with wrong conclusions. Today Equities up, yields up, vix down, yen on pause, gold down, and Eur/USD is up?
Is it based on this morn's good numbers from Europe?Lending more credence to the ECB expectations vs priced in FED hike camp? Do I need to just focus on DXY and forget about the rest for the time being?
Either I am wrong to look for relief in risk off as downward pressure on *euro, or I'm wrong to think that risk off/on is the main driver of eu right now. Time to shut up and watch. Could be too close and overanalyzing. Just want to get in synch with what is driving price or I'll never be able to get in synch generally.
  • #151,648
  • May 19, 2017 9:22am May 19, 2017 9:22am
Quoting goosebone
All thats clear to me about this risk off move is that nothing is very clear to me. I have got to be looking in the wrong places and coming up with wrong conclusions. Today Equities up, yields up, vix down, yen on pause, gold down, and Eur/USD is up? Is it based on this morn's good numbers from Europe?Lending more credence to the ECB expectations vs priced in FED hike camp? Do I need to just focus on DXY and forget about the rest for the time being? Either I am wrong to look for relief in risk off as downward pressure on *euro, or I'm wrong to think...
I think this explains what is going on in terms of FA:
https://www.stlouisfed.org/news-rele..._campaign=4863

My conclusion: no rate hike in FOMC June meeting.
  • #151,649
  • May 19, 2017 9:23am May 19, 2017 9:23am
Contemplating running a UJ short over the weekend in case of Trumpster screw up
  • #151,650
  • May 19, 2017 9:24am May 19, 2017 9:24am
Quoting goosebone
All thats clear to me about this risk off move is that nothing is very clear to me. I have got to be looking in the wrong places and coming up with wrong conclusions. Today Equities up, yields up, vix down, yen on pause, gold down, and Eur/USD is up? Is it based on this morn's good numbers from Europe?Lending more credence to the ECB expectations vs priced in FED hike camp? Do I need to just focus on DXY and forget about the rest for the time being? Either I am wrong to look for relief in risk off as downward pressure on *euro, or I'm wrong to think...
Throw in Fed's Bullard saying today June is not a done deal. He attributes recent softness in data to possibility that Fed may be moving too fast.
Think 4D: History, Future, Now and Noise
  • #151,651
  • May 19, 2017 9:26am May 19, 2017 9:26am
Quoting Pharm0r
Contemplating running a UJ short over the weekend in case of Trumpster screw up
you mentioned previously you use TD. have you ever tried options on FXY? just thinking the advantage is to protect the downside in case it blows up the other way. But I have only seen The Fool mention FXE , FXB thats why I ask.
  • #151,652
  • May 19, 2017 9:28am May 19, 2017 9:28am
Quoting goosebone
All thats clear to me about this risk off move is that nothing is very clear to me. I have got to be looking in the wrong places and coming up with wrong conclusions. Today Equities up, yields up, vix down, yen on pause, gold down, and Eur/USD is up? Is it based on this morn's good numbers from Europe?Lending more credence to the ECB expectations vs priced in FED hike camp? Do I need to just focus on DXY and forget about the rest for the time being? Either I am wrong to look for relief in risk off as downward pressure on *euro, or I'm wrong to think...
London rolls above 1185 will force me out. if below it may just sucker mean in.. oops, i am already in..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,653
  • May 19, 2017 9:36am May 19, 2017 9:36am
Quoting kik
{quote} S? short? here your SL and TP? thanks
sl posted above.. tp still open.. st 1135/15 would work as long as current high held. i still have tp open and may close regardless depending on 1185. my concern here is my stop atm.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,654
  • May 19, 2017 9:40am May 19, 2017 9:40am
See you guys in a few weeks 60% profit this month so far. Will sit back watch market and enter in june. Its good to take some time off. I've been on forex since 2012 but here since 2015 and my only advice is to be patient in unknown timesz . When it feels like a gamble, dont trade.

thanks sisse and gator for the posts. Cheers
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #151,655
  • May 19, 2017 9:42am May 19, 2017 9:42am
Quoting pmmebids
{quote} you mentioned previously you use TD. have you ever tried options on FXY? just thinking the advantage is to protect the downside in case it blows up the other way. But I have only seen The Fool mention FXE , FXB thats why I ask.
No I havent
  • #151,656
  • May 19, 2017 9:46am May 19, 2017 9:46am
Quoting Mickster
See you guys in a few weeks 60% profit this month so far. Will sit back watch market and enter in june. Its good to take some time off. I've been on forex since 2012 but here since 2015 and my only advice is to be patient in unknown timesz . When it feels like a gamble, dont trade. thanks sisse and gator for the posts. Cheers
Congrats. Have a good vacation.
  • #151,657
  • May 19, 2017 10:47am May 19, 2017 10:47am
Quoting goosebone
All thats clear to me about this risk off move is that nothing is very clear to me. I have got to be looking in the wrong places and coming up with wrong conclusions. Today Equities up, yields up, vix down, yen on pause, gold down, and Eur/USD is up? Is it based on this morn's good numbers from Europe?Lending more credence to the ECB expectations vs priced in FED hike camp? Do I need to just focus on DXY and forget about the rest for the time being? Either I am wrong to look for relief in risk off as downward pressure on *euro, or I'm wrong to think...
Looks like positioning is taking place for both risk on/off (May 24th Comey). The /ES P/C ratio was over 4 this morning. I don't know what the average is, I'm sure @Fool knows, but that ratio seems very high, despite VIX on the retrace.

As Sisse mentioned, equities will keep chugging along, even with the minor political risks. Nothing major (yet) to set a bearish trend. We'll need a major political risk or the scent of a financial melt down to put us in a long term bear territory.

Personally, the easy money is in equities right now. Foreign currencies are trying to turn the corner. It's really difficult (for me at least) to find a trend in the E/U 1000+pip range.

I prefer charts like this...
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  • #151,658
  • May 19, 2017 10:49am May 19, 2017 10:49am
Quoting ptoftangency
{quote} Looks like positioning to taking place for both risk on/off (May 24th Comey). The /ES P/C ratio was over 4 this morning. I don't know what the average is, I'm sure @Fool knows, but that ratio seems very high, despite VIX on the retrace. As Sisse mentioned, equities will keep chugging along, even with the minor political risks. Nothing major (yet) to set a bearish trend. We'll need a major political risk or the scent of a financial melt down to put us in a long term bear territory. Personally, the easy money is in equities right now. Foreign...
I see what you mean. Good point.
  • #151,659
  • May 19, 2017 10:59am May 19, 2017 10:59am
Maybe trying to catch a wale with a small boat but well, I am short USDCAD from 1.3640 with a SL of 10 pips, initially I was targetting 1.345x but what the hell, this could be a one in a year trade, I'm in until 1.283.
  • #151,660
  • May 19, 2017 11:14am May 19, 2017 11:14am
Quoting goosebone
All thats clear to me about this risk off move is that nothing is very clear to me. I have got to be looking in the wrong places and coming up with wrong conclusions. Today Equities up, yields up, vix down, yen on pause, gold down, and Eur/USD is up? Is it based on this morn's good numbers from Europe?Lending more credence to the ECB expectations vs priced in FED hike camp? Do I need to just focus on DXY and forget about the rest for the time being? Either I am wrong to look for relief in risk off as downward pressure on *euro, or I'm wrong to think...
As risk is fading away, my opinion is that we are in pump and dump mode, exercising maximum pain... Could be wrong but I'm expecting Euro to sit @ 1.097x for the minutes
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