"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
The Really Useless Thread
- #151,521
- May 17, 2017 1:04pm May 17, 2017 1:04pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,178 Posts
- #151,522
- May 17, 2017 1:04pm May 17, 2017 1:04pm
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
- #151,524
- May 17, 2017 1:12pm May 17, 2017 1:12pm
- | Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Аdministrator | 1,215 Posts
{quote} Yes, sisse alot of us our not in synch and I listed a few reasons alone due to not understanding all of how this ties together. We were ALL EXPECTING a break SOUTH and it failed a few times at least for me and I lost most my reward. I decided to take a LONG as you can see at the FLIP since it didn't close below it on DAILY. However, my demons took over and I failed to initiate my PLAN which was to FADE or SHORT this move at .108X. I have benefited from not fading it; rather, trailing it right now (.1130). This does me no justice as it feeds...
It's good to acknowledge that the trade you stayed in was a mistake (from a trade-planning perspective), but Bob Ross would call it a happy mistake (trade ROI wise it's a brilliant trade). So should you. You could also look at it this way: at least you're no longer taking the machinegun approach.
Focus not only on the shortcomings but also on the improvements when assessing yourself.Time for a cold beer. Waiting for more Trump nuggets.
- #151,525
- May 17, 2017 1:13pm May 17, 2017 1:13pm
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,178 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #151,527
- May 17, 2017 1:15pm May 17, 2017 1:15pm
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
Daily wrap will be coming after the close, as I'll need to travel home first. Have been digesting it all day, essentially sisse took care of the wrap with his earlier post, so mine will be a bit of a regurgitated version, with some of my own thoughts included, as well as what we've been discussing openly in the thread (hence I didn't include the risk off in the last wrap up) 
- #151,530
- May 17, 2017 1:28pm May 17, 2017 1:28pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Ride the Pig | 31,271 Posts
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
- #151,533
- May 17, 2017 1:33pm May 17, 2017 1:33pm
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,921 Posts | Online Now
- #151,534
- May 17, 2017 1:38pm May 17, 2017 1:38pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Ride the Pig | 31,271 Posts
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
- #151,535
- May 17, 2017 1:52pm May 17, 2017 1:52pm
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
Daily wrap will be coming after the close, as I'll need to travel home first. Have been digesting it all day, essentially sisse took care of the wrap with his earlier post, so mine will be a bit of a regurgitated version, with some of my own thoughts included, as well as what we've been discussing openly in the thread (hence I didn't include the risk off in the last wrap up)
{quote} The war scenario is unrealistic in my view. There are no preempting signs for it even from NK. Iran in this case is far away. He is already involved in ISIS war in Iraq. Also, he needs to prepare his citizens and the world. My bet is for impeachment sooner than later in order for Republicans to adjust their game plan/strategy.
We have hundred of examples in history and right now a dozen of them across the world. Nothing new, but new for America, that for the first time in its history decided to explore the dark side...it will end up as it always does in these cases, guarantee....
Hubris will start kicking in soon, he will start leaning more and more to the core of his hardcore supporters in the extreme right, alt right et all...polarising to the extreme the country and creating 'me vs the system' is the classical recipe to hold on power for longer.
For now aggressive warmongering will suffice in the short term. Wanna bet that in the next few days we will have thousand of headlines about Iran?...
sisse
impeachment in my view is a slippery slope, with a country divided already, it will only widen the rift...surely the VIX could see a quick move toward the 40-50 range, even 70 perhaps...
It will be extremely hard for the GOP and the establishment in general to let it escape that quick from their hands .... they will run out patience obviously and if things keep going south with DT, like rats, they will be the first to abandon ship leaving the bill to the average Joe which in this particular case will get what they asked/voted for....
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
{quote} We want to read your wrap up on the Euro... {quote} He is following to the letter, the manual of a populist, nationalist ego driven, quasi dictator that think he is the only chosen one, messiah send from heavens to fight the 'establishment'. We have hundred of examples in history and right now a dozen of them across the world. Nothing new, but new for America, that for the first time in its history decided to explore the dark side...it will end up as it always does in these cases, guarantee.... Hubris will start kicking in soon, he will...
- #151,537
- Edited 2:19pm May 17, 2017 2:01pm | Edited 2:19pm
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
Ok for the daily wrap up....
Anyone guessing we are risk off?
In order to cut down on some of the reposting I'll take a page out of sisse's post and break it down to current & the future (expected).
Current:
Dollar is getting slaughtered via US political risk while macro economic factors take a back seat. We're seeing the money flight to JPY*, gold, bonds, & EURO*. Most of that seems to be positioned in JPY* and bonds as evidenced in the JPY cross pairs (EJ is falling) plus 5/10/30 year treasuries. A flight to JPY is actually parallel with what we've seen any time Trump introduces risk into the markets, however; something that may be of note here, is that today 10 year and 30 year treasuries have had their single best days since early March and early January respectively....in my novice point of view, this is a hint of a bit more serious risk off sentiment than previous iterations with Trump. It maybe early positioning for a number of things, including potential war just to get the FBI news off Trump's back...
There's no question by anyone here, even before this wrap up (or sisse's) that we are in RISK OFF via US political risk only. This is further evidenced by the fall in NIKKEI, S&P, and DAX.
Future:
I'm actually expecting political risk off to continue in light of the May 24 hearing. As fool pointed out- the hearing, whether good or bad, gives us a hard date to track. Any irony that it's also the FOMC date? Obviously expecting some moves there, and probably a risk off/on version of "choose your poison"
Despite the political risk, all macro economic numbers in both US and EU are inline or better. So once the political risk fades (if it does), we should be back to business as usual with the current EURO and DOLLAR outlooks/flows as soon as next week.
Interesting, as pointed out by another member in the thread- the FED tracker for hikes in June has receded almost 30% (from 90% to 60%)! If Trump is cleared this risk event, we're likely to see these numbers shoot back up, however; if they don't (for whatever reason), there is a good possibility that many in the market will be caught on the wrong side of FOMC hikes as they are already a done deal! It will behoove us to track this as political risk develops and FOMC nears.
**That being said, I see where I had a misstep here. As soon as risk off was detected (I missed it, as sisse said) I should have canceled the idea of fading the highs, and sat in wait and see mode- or jumped on the risk off train. Well, I actually did jump on the train by longing JPY, but I didn't post risk off as an update- and I should have. Apologies there**
Essentially the Euro is (and will continue to be) the natural winner of the dollar being sold and risk off. I do not think it's a coincidence that EU has almost cleared the Trump selloff in anticipation of Trump's possible demise. Fade the high's seems like the incorrect move here, as long as RISK OFF sentiment is in the market. Once we can clear risk, fade the highs seems like a no brainer if you look where we are in both the short and midterm maps. <again this is where I think I was too slow to spot, and paid for>
However; if Trump can't clear the risk- and the rabbit hole goes deeper....well you mentioned a panic...not sure how that looks
I will reiterate that I am not so sure the exhaustion move is done- 1.13xx as the top of "Trump's candle" seems to be locked as for now...unless of course Comey comes out with a bomb shell. That I imagine would bring across sweeping outlook changes in JPY, EURO, DOLLAR, and BONDS
So, in EURO* waiting to clear risk before fading the highs, looking for front running in jpy*, bonds*, equities as a hint. Missed the reverso buy opportunity when I missed spotting the risk
Anyone guessing we are risk off?
In order to cut down on some of the reposting I'll take a page out of sisse's post and break it down to current & the future (expected).Current:
Dollar is getting slaughtered via US political risk while macro economic factors take a back seat. We're seeing the money flight to JPY*, gold, bonds, & EURO*. Most of that seems to be positioned in JPY* and bonds as evidenced in the JPY cross pairs (EJ is falling) plus 5/10/30 year treasuries. A flight to JPY is actually parallel with what we've seen any time Trump introduces risk into the markets, however; something that may be of note here, is that today 10 year and 30 year treasuries have had their single best days since early March and early January respectively....in my novice point of view, this is a hint of a bit more serious risk off sentiment than previous iterations with Trump. It maybe early positioning for a number of things, including potential war just to get the FBI news off Trump's back...
There's no question by anyone here, even before this wrap up (or sisse's) that we are in RISK OFF via US political risk only. This is further evidenced by the fall in NIKKEI, S&P, and DAX.
Future:
I'm actually expecting political risk off to continue in light of the May 24 hearing. As fool pointed out- the hearing, whether good or bad, gives us a hard date to track. Any irony that it's also the FOMC date? Obviously expecting some moves there, and probably a risk off/on version of "choose your poison"
Despite the political risk, all macro economic numbers in both US and EU are inline or better. So once the political risk fades (if it does), we should be back to business as usual with the current EURO and DOLLAR outlooks/flows as soon as next week.
Interesting, as pointed out by another member in the thread- the FED tracker for hikes in June has receded almost 30% (from 90% to 60%)! If Trump is cleared this risk event, we're likely to see these numbers shoot back up, however; if they don't (for whatever reason), there is a good possibility that many in the market will be caught on the wrong side of FOMC hikes as they are already a done deal! It will behoove us to track this as political risk develops and FOMC nears.
**That being said, I see where I had a misstep here. As soon as risk off was detected (I missed it, as sisse said) I should have canceled the idea of fading the highs, and sat in wait and see mode- or jumped on the risk off train. Well, I actually did jump on the train by longing JPY, but I didn't post risk off as an update- and I should have. Apologies there**
{quote} We want to read your wrap up on the Euro... .... sisse
However; if Trump can't clear the risk- and the rabbit hole goes deeper....well you mentioned a panic...not sure how that looks
I will reiterate that I am not so sure the exhaustion move is done- 1.13xx as the top of "Trump's candle" seems to be locked as for now...unless of course Comey comes out with a bomb shell. That I imagine would bring across sweeping outlook changes in JPY, EURO, DOLLAR, and BONDS
So, in EURO* waiting to clear risk before fading the highs, looking for front running in jpy*, bonds*, equities as a hint. Missed the reverso buy opportunity when I missed spotting the risk
- #151,539
- Edited 2:35pm May 17, 2017 2:19pm | Edited 2:35pm
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
{quote} actually, even today I saw some comments from WH concerning sanctions on Iran. Maybe an early bird.
They create trend and buzz in the average apolitical Joe in the street and pick up whatever is the flavour of the week and day and you swing your comments to whatever you want. For example, here in Brexit and now with elections, it was fascinating to hear how do they do it in practice.
Thats why most of these new populist don't care about the topic, technical, legal, envoriomeneal or economic reasons . They can defend A and B or C in the same day if that is trending while you do your things under the table all blessed with misleading 'public support'.
With so much powerful data and algos now and keyboarding, you just need to call whatever is trending (its a bit more complex than that but in a nutshell) so right now, on the limited last access I saw from the US last week:
The only think will 'unify' public opinion in the US will be anti 'Muslims' (don't judge why or why that is right or wrong or if how do they introduce the keywords to the masses thats what the Breitbart,Daily Mail, FOX and Murdoch and co do for a living) for 'Security' concerns. There are only 2 countries right now trending in the US 'keywords' NK and 'Iran'. ...NK is not muslim ...you do the math ...
Obviously I am oversimplifying the whole process and science behind it, but you wont believe what is now available (and has been used for misleading public opinion and policy) in the US and UK. So don't be surprise to see a bus with a photo of Syrian refugees in Egypt in the middle of a street in a little town in England saying vote 'Brexit ' because those savage European in the photo are coming to get you ....
In an nutshell you just introduce A,B,C keywords via social/normal media to the masses and see what sticks, then you mix and match the best performers by age/groups/target/you name it, then you do pretty much whatever you want ...the average Joe would hardly go beyond the headline and keywords ....pure data driven corruption and power...
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
- #151,540
- May 17, 2017 2:20pm May 17, 2017 2:20pm
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts