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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,501
  • May 17, 2017 11:02am May 17, 2017 11:02am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I agree with both of you; however, I'm not sure about the big players perspective; is it valuable to be in panic move? or they will fade the long knee-jerk reaction so far? how central banks will manage this chaos? I don't have answers to these questions, may be you and other more experienced people can give it some insight.

I found the cheat sheet Goosebone posted some months ago. ( It is Sisse's )

Cheat sheet (broad)

-> Soft risk -> Gold
-> Medium risk -> Gold -> Yen/(CHF less now that is a quasi fix CB rate) -> Dollar ->
-> High risk -> Dollar -> Treasuries (German Bonds)
-> Extreme panic -> Treasuries as ultimate haven.

Gold and yen is moving. Next Dollar?
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #151,502
  • May 17, 2017 11:12am May 17, 2017 11:12am
Quoting traderguy7
{quote} I don't use it extensively, however, I do know enough that volume helps as an indicator to distinguish between a fakeout and a genuine move. Care to share your thoughts?
volume profile a bit different than measuring volume of a move. It looks at the peaks and valleys of volume traded at specific prices with the theory that volume likes to return to valleys and fill in, and peaks are used as S/R in basic terms.
  • #151,503
  • May 17, 2017 11:12am May 17, 2017 11:12am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I found the cheat sheet Goosebone posted some months ago. ( It is Sisse's ) Cheat sheet (broad) -> Soft risk -> Gold -> Medium risk -> Gold -> Yen/(CHF less now that is a quasi fix CB rate) -> Dollar -> -> High risk -> Dollar -> Treasuries (German Bonds) -> Extreme panic -> Treasuries as ultimate haven. Gold and yen is moving. Next Dollar?
As US is the source of the risk, Dollar is no more accurate heaven in this Cheat sheet. So next is number 5=Treasuries.
  • #151,504
  • May 17, 2017 11:14am May 17, 2017 11:14am
Quoting bhmoney
any of you use market or volume profile with your trading? I come from a futures background where it dominates and still use it for 6e(euro), 6j(yen). 6b(pound). obviously need cme exchange data but the levels i find are often uncanny and involve the supply/demand/rotation of the market rather than a lagging indicator.
for lotto ticket numbers I use a combination of random license plate numbers, price of burger meat ads, moms & ex-wives birthdays, and things of this nature. I have won 5 of 6 on the WA lotto 5 times.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,505
  • May 17, 2017 11:15am May 17, 2017 11:15am
I was thinking about BTFD (was it Fool who coined this term?) looking at USD index. After the storm is over, is the US in such a bad shape as currently represented in USD? Looks like a short term move on air.
  • #151,506
  • May 17, 2017 11:16am May 17, 2017 11:16am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Agreed. I messaged sisse (no response yet), but I'll put it out to the thread as well to chew on. Seems to me the economic bullishness of the dollar has been completely hijacked by the fiscal bearishness (no shit right?). It makes me think that dollar has moved to ST sell due to current Trump fiasco, and that mid term has moved to neutral due to uncertainties regarding the trump admin. The next 4 years are shaping up to be plagued with fiscal hijacking of the dollar over and over and over... Is there a point where the market will just get...
Mostly agree. But not that Dollar is a sell. ( Yes it is currently dropping ) Expectation is still rate hike . So we can load up with cheap tickets when it turns . Abtway for me to risky now to try catching the falling knife. Wait until we get some calm water .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #151,507
  • May 17, 2017 11:17am May 17, 2017 11:17am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} As US is the source of the risk, Dollar is no more accurate heaven in this Cheat sheet. So next is number 5=Treasuries.
It is not Dollar that is the reason. It is Trump . But wait for calm water yes. I will not try to catch the falling knife here.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #151,508
  • Edited 11:34am May 17, 2017 11:23am | Edited 11:34am

++++ A Point of Order ++++


==> I got the feeling lots of around in the thread lost their north with the markets and lost synch in key times. Although we have a strong political component in the last few weeks, there is / has been too much micro politic gossip talk in the thread and too little market talk this week.

==> The current flows seem to have blown the thread outside of the strict and usual good general synch with the markets in particular in the Euro with the usual results of machine gun bullets and chart fitting everywhere, opening pandoras box for all inner demons that we have tried to buried deep down in the last year conversation.

@Pharm0r you have been particularly silence (right or wrong is irrelevant) for such a macro moves in play. I think you got caught with the pants down, not in the Euro trade but in whats going on in the markets. My 2 cents, you are too static in your analysis and still too focus on your TA lines instead of in getting in synch with the markets....

==> I wont say anything else neither wrap it up yet until the end of the week as you are still in full control of the thread Euro talk this week, but I think we need a point of order before we trigger a spiral of non sense and random posters talking out of context in the thread.

Let me just post a quick catch up post to try to redirect the conversations to a proper north.

++++ END ++++



==> A stormer day across the board with all markets on the move. Markets sending a very loud and clear signal to DT that patience in running low with DT border line immoral, political BS and incompetence from DT. We have officially witnessed a small teaser of what will happen if things doesn't radically change from the WH. Crying 'fake news' or shouting preschool arguments that I am the 'boss' here. 'Hillary this' wont cut it from now forward.

 

  1. The past

==> We had a strong relocation of risk assets after French election. Euro becoming a clear winner since we cleared extreme risk with important deleveraging from yen* and to lesser extend gold.

==> At the same time, very strong numbers from the EZ keep pouring. Officially the EZ grew faster than the US and UK in the last round of numbers and considering we were just starting to pick up in the real economy, brexit from the UK and protectionism from the US, EZ equities are becoming one of the best places to park money and ride the real economy for the foreseeable future (this is one of the [checks] from the yearly outlook ...we'll review it later in the month].

 

  1. The Present

==> Short term we have a run to Treasuries and Bonds last week, with risk off triggered by DT with money going to Euro* (for obvious reasons) and Gold. US equities look very tired of DT lack of action in the economic front and with a political tsunami in the horizon that is getting worst by the minute.

==> We got a clean sweep in the Euro in strong reshuffle towards the single currency, giving clear signals of what is cooking for the end of the year and beyond. Exhaustion move pretty much completed with today's close.

 

  1. The Future

==> Expecting the usual suspects and real money buying the dip on the closing session in US equities. Message has been delivered loud and clear. Failure to comply or if DT keep digging even a deeper hole in the next few hours WONT continue the current flow across the board but rather trigger SOFT PANIC. Meaning, Gold, Dollar and Yen to the moon while Euro* and almost all other markets will take the backseat.

I hope it helps for those who have ask....

@Pharm0r floor is all yours. I will keep reading your comments and how you guide us through this one. Not an easy environment but that's exactly what you want if you want to improve your skills, doesnt' it?

GL

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,509
  • May 17, 2017 11:24am May 17, 2017 11:24am
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  • #151,510
  • May 17, 2017 11:30am May 17, 2017 11:30am
Thanks sisse! I believe you're absolutely right.

I'll adjust my posts to reflect the market as a whole and not just EU/Dollar/Trumpy starting this evening.
  • #151,511
  • May 17, 2017 12:43pm May 17, 2017 12:43pm
TP soon on sp500. Gator are you still thinking on long eurjpy around the 123.3x zone?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #151,512
  • May 17, 2017 12:47pm May 17, 2017 12:47pm
Quoting sisse
The Future ==> Expecting the usual suspects and real money buying the dip on the closing session in US equities.
I seen it before, when I was a boy, markets would sell off and just keep a-sellin' off through the close.....it were the dangdest thing....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,513
  • May 17, 2017 1:22pm May 17, 2017 1:22pm
Quoting traderguy7
{quote} Be aware that I am looking at this from the daily charts. There is a possibility of a lot of up and down movements and noise in between that. And as a disclaimer I am only sharing what I am seeing, please do not blindly follow me or anyone here for that matter, it's important for you to do your own research and come up with your own conclusions as well if you want to truly develop into a trader.
Sorry traderguy7, dont matter what you say, i have and will follow you blindly, come hell or high water your leading trades are all i want, your posts are beacon of hope to otherwise totally lost trading nation. Please keep your analysis coming and dont be worried, many great men were only recognized after they perished.
  • #151,514
  • May 17, 2017 1:43pm May 17, 2017 1:43pm
Watching for updates on this closely- may carry risk into next week...also FOMC day

Quote
House oversight committee sets May 24 hearing to investigate if Trump interfered in FBI probe, asks Comey to testify

https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=665645
  • #151,515
  • May 17, 2017 1:54pm May 17, 2017 1:54pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Made some big mistakes and common Demons took over. I am still a horrible trader(CHECK)and still hoping to learn. I did the best in iterations w sisse than I ever had on my own. I went Long at .085x flip zone (CHECK)and am trailing it. Looking for .108x and then fading it (FAIL). Just my plan. (Couldn't execute my plan due to me being a dumb-ass)!!!!!)No...
Yes, sisse alot of us our not in synch and I listed a few reasons alone due to not understanding all of how this ties together. We were ALL EXPECTING a break SOUTH and it failed a few times at least for me and I lost most my reward. I decided to take a LONG as you can see at the FLIP since it didn't close below it on DAILY.

However, my demons took over and I failed to initiate my PLAN which was to FADE or SHORT this move at .108X. I have benefited from not fading it; rather, trailing it right now (.1130). This does me no justice as it feeds the demons on when I should exit or enter or whatever. This is why I say I am a terrible trader. The demons tell me this move could possibly go to .128X (not a strong possibility but one to consider from a WEEKLY chart----again, demons tell me this). Now, I don't even have the balls to fade it or short it now. Definitely lost in the trees.
  • #151,516
  • May 17, 2017 2:00pm May 17, 2017 2:00pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Watching for updates on this closely- may carry risk into next week...also FOMC day
Was thinking the same as well, and now I'm a bit crossed up on when I should exit this UJ short (from yesterday)... I was on the trigger to close it at 110.90 a few minutes ago, but now I'm waffling. I may just trail it down to 111.30 and watch. 110.60 looks like a nice place for a bounce.
  • #151,517
  • May 17, 2017 2:05pm May 17, 2017 2:05pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Watching for updates on this closely- may carry risk into next week...also FOMC day {quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=665645


good - this situation has been lacking some structure. Need some dates and if/then clauses, something to build a binary world view around. May 24 will be bombshell or fizzle? Well, maybe not that easy, always the next tweet or leak....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,518
  • May 17, 2017 2:32pm May 17, 2017 2:32pm
Quoting Mickster
TP soon on sp500. Gator are you still thinking on long eurjpy around the 123.3x zone? {image}
only with the low holding.. but yeah. 123.0x area..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,519
  • May 17, 2017 2:44pm May 17, 2017 2:44pm
https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-tr...140400669.html

omg!....how ya'll gonna let a crazy main be President?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,520
  • May 17, 2017 2:59pm May 17, 2017 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
I seen it before, when I was a boy, markets would sell off and just keep a-sellin' off through the close.....it were the dangdest thing....
spoos crashing into the close, whaddayaknow?....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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