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5 years and still no strategy

  • #1,661
  • May 17, 2017 7:28am May 17, 2017 7:28am
Quoting Lindman
Hi guys, I have started a new thread with the Crucial Point Scalping System: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...84#post9877384
ROFL
What's the point in wasting time on a sucker and his system?
  • #1,662
  • May 17, 2017 7:33am May 17, 2017 7:33am
Quoting The-Flipper
{quote} ROFL What's the point in wasting time on a sucker and his system?
Apparently making millions was a waste of time for him?
  • #1,663
  • May 17, 2017 7:36am May 17, 2017 7:36am
Quoting Lindman
{quote} Apparently making millions was a waste of time for him?
Apparently you believe every sh*t.
  • #1,664
  • May 17, 2017 7:46am May 17, 2017 7:46am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You might not believe this, but my strategy is stunningly simple. I take the ADX on M5 as direction. I enter on breakouts and place a stop at the last major low or high on an M1 chart. I follow the M15 or 30 chart and ride my trade until the trend changes. It is mechanical. And it works. I am stopped out often. {quote}{quote} Yes, I know nothing. Or, it could be that you do not know what you do not know young padawan. There are no original ideas in a market that has been around since the rice traders of Japan. You can Google that too. At...
Ignoring the aroused Ronda Rousey for a moment and going off topic. May I ask, do you use the stock MT4 ADX?
Gone to a better place
  • #1,665
  • May 17, 2017 7:48am May 17, 2017 7:48am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} No original idea since the Japanese candlesticks?? how stupid are you? You cannot think for yourself because you are sheep. And sheep get slaughtered in this caper and so do pigs. I am stopped out often. Confirmed you have no idea about MM. I told you are a know all that knows nothing. You have wasted your time subscribing to 100 users because you have learnt nothing
I subscribe to many users because I like to share. Every professional trader gets stopped out often, but you do not know that because you are still learning things. That's okay, everyone has to learn. And no, there are no original ideas since Japanese candles. Not one. Every idea since is an iteration on price action, which has not, and will not, ever change. Again, you do not know what you do not know. I do know that I have a responsibility to the people who read what I write, so I will not trade insults with you. I will say that price action is quantifiable, and if you adhere to the traders equation, and you trade full time, you will make money.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,666
  • May 17, 2017 7:49am May 17, 2017 7:49am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Ignoring the aroused Ronda Rousey for a moment and going off topic. May I ask, do you use the stock MT4 ADX?
No, mladen wrote a true ADX some years ago, that is the one that I use.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,667
  • May 17, 2017 7:50am May 17, 2017 7:50am
Quoting Lindman
{quote} Apparently making millions was a waste of time for him?
You're failing to understand that his system had certain rules to it that you won't see on any of the indicators. Those indicators were used to provide quick/easy references and alert him to potential trades. They acted as a filter. They were not what made him money.(I do the same thing without the indicators)
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,668
  • May 17, 2017 8:08am May 17, 2017 8:08am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} You're failing to understand that his system had certain rules to it that you won't see on any of the indicators. Those indicators were used to provide quick/easy references and alert him to potential trades.
I don't think the "reverse engineered" indicator has much to do with the original system indicators (as far as I was able to decipher it).
k
  • #1,669
  • May 17, 2017 8:16am May 17, 2017 8:16am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} I don't think the "reverse engineered" indicator has much to do with the original system indicators (as far as I was able to decipher it). k
It's actually superior in the way of combining Crucial Point's entry method with his filtering method. If you look back at his screenshots of entries it becomes apparent.
  • #1,670
  • May 17, 2017 8:56am May 17, 2017 8:56am
Quoting Lindman
{quote} It's actually superior in the way of combining Crucial Point's entry method with his filtering method. If you look back at his screenshots of entries it becomes apparent.
And when was he entering? On a Monday? During lunch in Tokyo? Just after NFP? Right before Trump got elected?

Whipsaws sure aren't fun to try and scalp if you don't know what to expect.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,671
  • May 17, 2017 10:06am May 17, 2017 10:06am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Would you be prepared to do a simple statistical exercise then, one that I set for you? I guarantee it won't take you longer than an hour.
Ok. I'd like to see that
  • #1,672
  • Edited 1:32pm May 17, 2017 1:19pm | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting sinqua
The accuracy of entries can only be determined in hindsight, just like the very beginning of what people call a trend, entries are in the past. Exits are the present - this is the difference. They work together but the present outweighs the past. .......
That's the illusion, that the present always seems to be more important than the past. In a way, it's a similar kind of illusion that's inherent the 'Monty Hall' problem (which was discussed earlier in the thread), where the contestant's initial choice seems to be irrelevant once one of the doors has been opened. Yet it is not! It also has similarities to the fallacy that tells a trader that if he holds a trade for long enough, he'll eventually get to exit at a better price than whatever's being offered currently (e.g. hold onto a loss for long enough, it will eventually return to profit). That's true only in the hypothetical world where time is infinite.

Quote
He says it much better than I do: "When you have a bad entry, you can always work your way around it, but when you have a bad exit, this is final This is when the P&L gets printed." Laurent Bernut
Supposing that on July 15, 2008, Trader A's analysis told him to BUY the EURUSD when it was at 1.6037, while Trader B's analysis told him to SELL it. No matter where both traders exit over the next ~9 years, even if they exit at different times, B's outcome will always outperform A's. Their respective entries, despite being past, were significant. Sure, that's an extreme example, but it serves to illustrate the general principle. Ultimately, both entry and exit have a commensurate effect on the outcome.

I'll leave it there, as I'll only end up repeating what I've already said in prior posts.
Each one of us believes that he can see something that the other can't.
  • #1,673
  • Edited 2:15pm May 17, 2017 1:53pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} In a way, it's a similar kind of illusion that's inherent the 'Monty Hall' problem (which was discussed earlier in the thread), where the contestant's initial choice seems to be irrelevant once one of the doors has been opened. Yet it is not!. Each one of us believes that he can see something that the other can't.
I never said (or meant) entries are irrelevant. I specifically said entries are a traders point of reference. A point of reference is not irrelevant but its not an edge either.

Aha! The Monty Hall problem actually shows this!...The 1st choice is the participants reference used in solving the problem, its not the deciding factor itself, its not the 'Correct Choice' (which is correct over a number of tries...revealing the edge)

I could also counter the example too but it would be futile. I have argued both sides with myself, so far I cant see your view. If I get an aha moment I'd let you know.
  • #1,674
  • May 17, 2017 3:09pm May 17, 2017 3:09pm
Quoting sinqua
Aha! The Monty Hall problem actually shows this!...The 1st choice is the participants reference used in solving the problem, its not the deciding factor itself, its not the 'Correct Choice' (which is correct over a number of tries...revealing the edge)
Fair enough. However, the probabilities (1/3 to 2/3) are determined before the door is opened, they don't change to 50/50 thereafter. That was the parallel I was attempting to draw.
  • #1,675
  • May 17, 2017 3:29pm May 17, 2017 3:29pm
freakout, i have a simple advice to give you

forget about forexfactory.com for like ......6 months

get some basic books and read them

steve nison - candlestick charting techniques\

john murphy -technical analysis of the financial markets

van. k tharp - trade your way to financial freedom

these 3 are one of the few basic books. and when i say basic books i mean it

all the other books ( which 75% are either crap or rehash the ideas in the 3 books i gave you)

all the posts in forex factory no matter how good they are have less good info compared with the basic books

then after 6 months you should be able to read the basic books , and you will hopefully see the truth. then you can read and comment the posts on forex factory with a better understanding

you need a superior understanding of market and forex mechanisms to filter through all the crap posted in forex factory, and see the golden posts and comments on forex factory ( cause there are many golden posts here)
The risk is what gives value to an investment.
  • #1,676
  • May 17, 2017 3:43pm May 17, 2017 3:43pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Apparently you were never much good at math
What kind of math do you have in mind ?
  • #1,677
  • May 17, 2017 4:29pm May 17, 2017 4:29pm
Quoting argosgate7
{quote} What kind of math do you have in mind ?

All math is the same.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,678
  • May 17, 2017 4:45pm May 17, 2017 4:45pm
Quoting freakout
Thank you for all replies For the last 4 years I was spending something about 10 hours daily in front of MT4 and for the last 2 years I was trading without any indicators. I know how to trade with trend using HL/LH method as I always want to take a good entry. I know everything about proper money management - I always risk 2% of my account per trade with 1:2 ratio as it's easy to hit and it's the most profitable scenario (confirmed by many excel calculators, etc.). I'm a big fan of japanese candlestick patterns and I always tried to build...
Sorry, haven't read all the thread, but there were many really good answers in first pages. So you want to develop your own strategy? Also, from added quote ,seems like sometimes you want to predict the next direction, this will result in emotions and shows a lack of thinking in probabilities and lack of knowledge in trading psychology.
These 4 videos are all about it, it will help you with mastering yourself and developing new strategy.
PRESS HERE
Hope that you find it useful.
Know thyself
  • #1,679
  • May 17, 2017 7:54pm May 17, 2017 7:54pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Yes, bird watchers are obvious to spot. It is a good way to trade if you are not trying to get rich tomorrow.
Yep. I am in no rush to get rich from trading. My career remains my primary focus. Trading I just my passion and therapy to ignore the chaos in the world around me. I already have a date in mind to quit and live off the bush by myself and my satellite dish :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #1,680
  • May 17, 2017 7:58pm May 17, 2017 7:58pm
Quoting 3cent
freakout, i have a simple advice to give you forget about forexfactory.com for like ......6 months get some basic books and read them steve nison - candlestick charting techniques\ john murphy -technical analysis of the financial markets van. k tharp - trade your way to financial freedom these 3 are one of the few basic books. and when i say basic books i mean it all the other books ( which 75% are either crap or rehash the ideas in the 3 books i gave you) all the posts in forex factory no matter how good they are have less good info compared with...
I would add to this the books from Al Brooks and Edwards and Magee. But I think the OP knows the basics. I think his trouble was inconsistency.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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