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5 years and still no strategy

  • #1,641
  • May 17, 2017 4:03am May 17, 2017 4:03am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} The best trading systems need no money management techniques. No SL No TP No martingale No grid No scale in/out MM is like training wheels. For beginners.
You are quite right. Money management is for wimps. I have even found 3 systems right here on Forex Factory that give you an arrow. You put your whole account on it. Easy.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,642
  • May 17, 2017 4:15am May 17, 2017 4:15am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} yep. I slice and dice my exits many different ways based on time of day, session, currency, %equity etc Cutting losses is trade mgmt in my view. MM is pure position sizing to me, how much leverage/margin (and not risk) I want to put in a trade in relation to trading capital, how I manage available margin, how I manage exposure in USD across other currencies etc.
Yes, bird watchers are obvious to spot. It is a good way to trade if you are not trying to get rich tomorrow.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,643
  • May 17, 2017 4:17am May 17, 2017 4:17am
I'm reading this thread and to my left is an advertisement for a company that is giving away money and with that renowned forex trader Usain Bolt as an official sponsor. Reminds me of some award winning cheese I once ate. Time for doing something worthwhile methinks.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,644
  • May 17, 2017 4:29am May 17, 2017 4:29am
Quoting smikester
I'm reading this thread and to my left is an advertisement for a company that is giving away money and with that renowned forex trader Usain Bolt as an official sponsor. Reminds me of some award winning cheese I once ate. Time for doing something worthwhile methinks.
Usain Bolt???

Do you live in Jamaica?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,645
  • May 17, 2017 4:30am May 17, 2017 4:30am
If there is one thing that this thread has officially concluded after ~85 pages it's that newbies don't have a strategy. Experienced fools stick to a strategy. Experienced professionals don't stick to a strategy.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,646
  • May 17, 2017 4:34am May 17, 2017 4:34am
Quoting Redeflect
If there is one thing that this thread has officially concluded after ~85 pages it's that newbies don't have a strategy. Experienced fools stick to a strategy. Experienced professionals don't stick to a strategy.
Humans use strategies to live. Everything you do is a strategy. That includes trading. If you do not know when to get out when are clearly wrong, you are finished.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,647
  • May 17, 2017 4:36am May 17, 2017 4:36am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Humans use strategies to live. Everything you do is a strategy. That includes trading. If you do not know when to get out when are clearly wrong, you are finished.
Sure, if you want to call 'surviving' a strategy. I mean; 'not surviving' doesn't exactly play out too well. Just go ask...

The point is that you have to assimilate and associate knowledge from different experiences and have good judgement in order to survive new experiences. I think there's a word for knowledge, experience, and good judgement.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,648
  • May 17, 2017 4:37am May 17, 2017 4:37am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Sure, if you want to call 'surviving' a strategy. I mean; 'not surviving' doesn't exactly play out too well. Just go ask...
Do you travel? Surviving is very different in the bush than it is in the City.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,649
  • May 17, 2017 4:44am May 17, 2017 4:44am
Quoting Redeflect
If there is one thing that this thread has officially concluded after ~85 pages it's that newbies don't have a strategy. Experienced fools stick to a strategy. Experienced professionals don't stick to a strategy.
I hope your offer will make someone's day!
  • #1,650
  • May 17, 2017 5:16am May 17, 2017 5:16am
Quoting RondaRousey
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Yes sir, LTCM thought the very same thing, and you will be where they are, in due time. LTCM was run by over confident professors who had no track record of trading. They thought they could eliminate risk by a Black-Scholes equation. They increased their bet size after losses. They tried to recoup their losses by making larger bets. They used MM techniques and failed. LCTM is a lesson on how MM techniques can destroy you and how their trading equation that theoretically eliminated risk cannot profit from chaos. Capeesch?
...
I can see that you do not yet know the difference between MM and leverage. Google that and come back and have a chat.

Quoting dkrock
The TV news trader just started ignoring some of us. Wonderful. More of those "feelings" at work, lol. One day he is going to finally get tired of his own BS and want to learn how to start making money, but won't be from me. Don't need his superiority complex in my life, lol, especially when he is so full of crap. Must be the salesman training they gave him? I guess if you work and get fired from a dozen banks and hedge funds you are supposed to be my hero, lol. No thank you. You keep guessing and convincing yourself you know what you are doing...
Yeah, I told another trader that though a PM. These people cannot handle success.

Quoting dkrock
The TV news trader just started ignoring some of us. Wonderful. More of those "feelings" at work, lol. One day he is going to finally get tired of his own BS and want to learn how to start making money, but won't be from me. Don't need his superiority complex in my life, lol, especially when he is so full of crap. Must be the salesman training they gave him? I guess if you work and get fired from a dozen banks and hedge funds you are supposed to be my hero, lol. No thank you. You keep guessing and convincing yourself you know what you are doing...
I like how you have solved the trend vs. range question.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,651
  • May 17, 2017 5:24am May 17, 2017 5:24am
Quoting Redeflect
If there is one thing that this thread has officially concluded after ~85 pages it's that newbies don't have a strategy. Experienced fools stick to a strategy. Experienced professionals don't stick to a strategy.
The main thing that this thread has shown, is that actually useful information gets ignored and lost in the millions of letters, spelling out the same bs over and over again, to the point that one must feel sorry for pixels on the monitor since they are wasted on such a thing. Forex is an amazing place for role players, hell its easier to be a guy who drinks beer with George Soros here than do 10 push ups. As the saying goes - "You can be who ever you want to be".
Tons of mentally messed up role players pretending to be some big boys, tons of mindless followers who nearly flirt with so called big boys hoping that they will one day share their profitable methodology with them. Its a really sad place, funny and mad... Some people see through the bs, and In search for useful information lose their iq and testosterone after going through 10000+ posts. Others not only fail at forex, but fail so hard at life that their only enjoyment is ego-masturbation on forex forums.

As someone stated above, its good that many psychos, sadists and masochists get their relieve from forex forums, things could have been much worse had those people not found forex.

The thing I love the most are gurus, imagine teaching people things which you know are clearly b.s. for a few years for literal cents ? Some do make good money from their private forums though.
However they probably came in to forex to fulfil their dream of becoming a great trader. Now all they have is a cycle of hell, I wonder how those people live with that. Personally I can't even magine the inner mental hell those monsters actually go through. Some of them quit for a few months and reappear. Others simply dissappear.
The truth is hidden from you
  • #1,652
  • May 17, 2017 6:25am May 17, 2017 6:25am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Do you travel? Surviving is very different in the bush than it is in the City.
I consider them very similar. This is one of those debates that won't lead anywhere because it's entirely based on trying to make a point that can't be made.

It's like saying cooking is/isn't rocket science. But, really, it is(physics and thermodynamics leading to chemical reactions on the molecular level) and it isn't(nothing mechanically engineered or applied principles of aviation). The distinction is arbitrary.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,653
  • May 17, 2017 6:32am May 17, 2017 6:32am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} I consider them very similar. This is one of those debates that won't lead anywhere because it's entirely based on trying to make a point that can't be made. It's like saying cooking is/isn't rocket science. But, really, it is(physics and thermodynamics leading to chemical reactions on the molecular level) and it isn't(nothing mechanically engineered or applied principles of aviation). The distinction is arbitrary.
It is indeed arbitrary, yet you speak with a seeming certainty. I was confused about that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,654
  • May 17, 2017 6:35am May 17, 2017 6:35am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote}{quote} I can see that you do not yet know the difference between MM and leverage. Google that and come back and have a chat. {quote} Yeah, I told another trader that though a PM. These people cannot handle success. {quote} I like how you have solved the trend vs. range question.
I missed his post. I didn't think anyone had a question about trends or ranges that needed solving . The market is doing both at all times. A trend becomes a range eventually and a range is composed of trends. How long the trends avoid equilibrium determines how long the ranges can be ignored.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,655
  • Edited 6:48am May 17, 2017 6:36am | Edited 6:48am
I think what also needs to be mentioned is that two seasoned traders (perhaps with vastly differing opinions on the nature of the markets) would, given the same chart, take similar trades.
To give a bad example, I (who am *not* a seasoned trader) bought some oil this morning according to my strategy, and now, on a second look, I see that the Asian session range was quite narrow and that a strong breakout would likely to be expected. Indeed, for this set of trades, I could have used the breakout idea by smikester earlier on (or for that matter this idea by sinqua) to make virtually the same entries. The trades between two very different systems would barely be distinguished.
The price can only go up or down and there are many different ways of taking advantage of this: The common theme of any reasonable system is that one buys when the price goes up, and sells when it goes down. How one observes and measures this movement is what we're wasting too much energy by differing in opinions.
k
  • #1,656
  • Edited 6:55am May 17, 2017 6:45am | Edited 6:55am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} It is indeed arbitrary, yet you speak with a seeming certainty. I was confused about that.
I only meant that 'surviving' is the only way to survive. Anything that can't survive doesn't survive and so anything that does survive has some capacity for survival until the time when it is unable to adapt. A strategy is only as good as it's adaptability/'robustness' until the strategy itself is rendered ineffective. Even purely mechanical systems can benefit heavily from a trader's discretion.

I consider adaptation to be the only 'strategy' to be viable because of it's inherent morphological property. I may not have worded that precisely.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,657
  • Edited 7:17am May 17, 2017 7:03am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting kprsa
I think what also needs to be mentioned is that two seasoned traders (perhaps with vastly differing opinions on the nature of the markets) would, given the same chart, take similar trades. To give a bad example, I (who am *not* a seasoned trader) bought some oil this morning according to my strategy, and now, on a second look, I see that the Asian session range was quite narrow and that a strong breakout would likely to be expected. Indeed, for this set of trades, I could have used the breakout idea...
It's more that people like to argue how they KNOW which direction the price will go. They think knowing which direction the price will go is what makes a good trader.

Some people can't handle the uncertainty. Trying to convince others that they know the unknown helps bandage their ego that the market keeps bruising. They don't realize how much an ego sticks out like a sore thumb to profitable traders. I get a sadistic sort of pleasure from wearing the mask of a narcissist.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,658
  • May 17, 2017 7:15am May 17, 2017 7:15am
Hi guys, I have started a new thread with the Crucial Point Scalping System:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...84#post9877384
  • #1,659
  • May 17, 2017 7:16am May 17, 2017 7:16am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} I only meant that 'surviving' is the only way to survive. Anything that can't survive doesn't survive and so anything that does survive has some capacity for survival until the time when it is unable to adapt. A strategy is only as good as it's adaptability/'robustness' until the strategy itself is rendered ineffective. Even purely mechanical systems can benefit heavily from a trader's discretion. I consider adaptation to be the only 'strategy' to be viable because of it's inherent morphological property. I may not have worded that precisely....
You might not believe this, but my strategy is stunningly simple. I take the ADX on M5 as direction. I enter on breakouts and place a stop at the last major low or high on an M1 chart. I follow the M15 or 30 chart and ride my trade until the trend changes. It is mechanical. And it works. I am stopped out often.

Quoting RondaRousey
Quoting jmn5611
{quote}{quote} I can see that you do not yet know the difference between MM and leverage. Google that and come back and have a chat. You are a know all that knows nothing. You have no idea about LTCM. Have no idea about MM. Just parrot to what you subscribe to and have no original idea or thought. Your posts shows lack of experience, lack of trading skills and just garbage. For example : It is indeed arbitrary, yet you speak with a seeming certainty. I was confused about that. You are one confused poster. Come up with an original
...
Yes, I know nothing. Or, it could be that you do not know what you do not know young padawan. There are no original ideas in a market that has been around since the rice traders of Japan. You can Google that too. At any rate, keep hanging out, you will learn something at some point I am sure. You seem to read English well enough, so you will be fine. Hang in there!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,660
  • May 17, 2017 7:28am May 17, 2017 7:28am
Quoting hanover
{quote} I wasn't necessarily confused by your explanation; in fact, at one point in my journey I used to think similarly to the way that you describe. Hence both the entry and the exit have a commensurate effect on the outcome. In other words, a different entry price would cause a different result. To whatever extent entry is a "calculated guess", exits are likewise. (Analysis skills are not necessarily sharper when the trader has money at risk). I would challenge anybody to devise a system using coin-toss entries whose overall P/L can't be improved...


- The accuracy of entries can only be determined in hindsight, just like the very beginning of what people call a trend, entries are in the past. Exits are the present - this is the difference. They work together but the present outweighs the past.

Quoting hanover
{quote} Your example is reversible: if 10 traders all use the same exit rules, then the one with the best entries will outperform the others. If it's possible to evaluate the efficacy of exits by testing them using fixed entries, then it's possible to evaluate the efficacy of entries by testing them using fixed exits.


- I like this, you see the reverse example you have given can easily be collapsed to ONE Trader making 10different trades (different entry prices) with different results on each trade as a product of his EXIT rule set (CONSISTENT strategy applied over a number of possible events upon entry), the final outcome a la Mark Douglas method for determining an edge - after say 10 different trades (whatever number) will reveal his edge. Mark Douglas was the first man to break down the meaning of an 'edge' for me.

- In my example however, the different exit rule sets make them all different strategies, they cannot be collapsed in the same manner, i.e today I exit on Hanovers rules, next trade is exited on VEEFX rules, the next on Redeflect, the next on himly, next on nealpek ...dancing around strategies is what this is OR take the same entry and exit on these peoples rules ...still dancing around strategies

Quoting hanover
{quote} If there was no advantage in analysis-based entries, institutional traders would surely have recognized this a long time ago, and would save themselves a lot of time and effort (marking up their charts and poring over economic reports) by instead simply tossing a coin to determine their entries


- I am so not sure about the 'recognizing' part, smart people are their own worst enemies ...if all that analysis was sufficient to provide an edge they would also not have a myriad of contingency plans.

Quoting hanover
{quote} Whereas, for example, Mark Douglas defines it thus: "An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another" (source). Based on Mr Douglas' definition, an indication of subsequent directional or behavioral bias can be used as the basis for an edge. To whatever extent analysis prior to entry can be used to determine future bias, entries can provide an edge.


- The exits are what ensure whatever bias materializes to form an edge. Hence there are a million & 1 ways to skin the cat, in the manner of: Form a bias, work an exit plan around that bias voila personal edge. rinse and repeat by other successful traders.

Paul Tudor Jones - top and bottom picking expertise is fantastic I'm sure, I myself have in my active trading life been quite good at picking them out (loved the GBPJPY, I would spot 300pip moves with 20 pip accuracy) - he was successful, I was abysmal. I would show my brother the results, venting how I was so accurate and still got burned and he will sooth me with some "you are under-capitalized", "you were in too much of a hurry" etc. The entry certainly wasn't the difference.

Quoting hanover
{quote} Let's agree to differ, if necessary. There are many different ways of seeing trading axioms


This much is true, we can always agree to disagree. This is not for everybody either, please ignore if it affects your confidence or profitable beliefs.


Quoting Copernicus
{quote} ....and through the mist of orcish narrative there occasionally is a gem. Thanks for the discussion Singua and Hanover...... This is what emerges from a debate as opposed to diatribe. Here is an interesting podcast from Laurent Bernut to support your case Singua http://bettersystemtrader.com/091-le...aurent-bernut/
He says it much better than I do:

“When you have a bad entry, you can always work your way around it, but when you have a bad exit, this is final… This is when the P&L gets printed.” – Laurent Bernut
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