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5 years and still no strategy

  • #1,621
  • Edited May 17, 2017 3:23am May 16, 2017 7:27pm | Edited May 17, 2017 3:23am
Quoting sinqua
{quote} Ah hanover, nice to have your input, how to explain this???
....and through the mist of orcish narrative there occasionally is a gem. Thanks for the discussion Singua and Hanover......

This is what emerges from a debate as opposed to diatribe.

Here is an interesting podcast from Laurent Bernut to support your case Singua

http://bettersystemtrader.com/091-le...aurent-bernut/
  • #1,622
  • Edited 9:24pm May 16, 2017 8:31pm | Edited 9:24pm
Quoting sinqua
how to explain this??? Let me attempt. ...... I hope there are no more confusions.
I wasn't necessarily confused by your explanation; in fact, at one point in my journey I used to think similarly to the way that you describe. But......

You win by being long while price is rising, and/or short while price is falling. All of this occurs between your entry and exit. Hence both the entry and the exit have a commensurate effect on the outcome. In other words, a different entry price would cause a different result.

To whatever extent entry is a "calculated guess", exits are likewise. (Analysis skills are not necessarily sharper when the trader has money at risk). Your example is reversible: if 10 traders all use the same exit rules, then the one with the best entries will outperform the others. If it's possible to evaluate the efficacy of exits by testing them using fixed entries, then it's possible to evaluate the efficacy of entries by testing them using fixed exits.

If there was no advantage in analysis-based entries, institutional traders would surely have recognized this a long time ago, and would save themselves a lot of time and effort (marking up their charts and poring over economic reports) by instead simply tossing a coin to determine their entries. I would challenge anybody to devise a system using coin-toss entries whose overall P/L can't be improved upon by using analysis-based entries.

You define an "edge" as an "infallible advantage". Whereas, for example, Mark Douglas defines it thus: "An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another" (source). Based on Mr Douglas' definition, an indication of subsequent directional or behavioral bias can be used as the basis for an edge. To whatever extent analysis prior to entry can be used to determine future bias, entries can provide an edge.

Discretionary traders think and operate in a number of different ways. I don't think you can necessarily pigeonhole them in the way that you have.

Anyway, I've made the points I wanted to make, I'll move on now. Let's agree to differ, if necessary. There are many different ways of seeing trading axioms.

Quoting skyway
Let's assume for some reason his method is able to pinpoint with high accuracy the entry point where the price moves least against his trade and his forecasted direction is correct.
Paul Tudor Jones is a good example of a trader who is famous for doing exactly this, i.e. his proficiency at entering near turning points (swing highs and lows) contributes significantly to his winning advantage.
  • #1,623
  • May 16, 2017 8:52pm May 16, 2017 8:52pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} I wasn't necessarily confused by your explanation; in fact, at one point in my journey I used to think similarly to the way that you describe. But...... You win by being long while price is rising, and/or short while price is falling. All of this occurs between your entry and exit. Hence both the entry and the exit have a commensurate effect on the outcome. In other words, a different entry price would cause a different result. To whatever extent entry is a "calculated guess", exits are likewise. (Analysis skills are not necessarily sharper...
Amen.If an imprecise entry or exit can still yield a profit then precise entries and exits don't worsen the results.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,624
  • May 16, 2017 8:55pm May 16, 2017 8:55pm
Quoting sinqua
{quote} I hope I can shed enough light for you to see the point of view. Q. When do you know you entered at the wrong price &/ direction? A. When you exit. This means your entry at the point of entry was neutral (neither good/bad)...because you did not know the future. What made it a great trade/loss was your exit. Therefore entries are not exactly relevant in themselves...not having to bother about pinpoint entries does make things mighty easier I should also add.
I know i entered at a wrong price when my sl get hit. I know i entered at the right price when my tp gets hit. i think the exit becomes more important only when it is discretionary, in this case two people can enter at the same price yet one still exits with a profit when the other does so with a loss. However when the entry and exit (tp and sl) are both fixed, lets say for example you take a trade with risk 1:1 reward, the entry here is crucial for you to either exit with a profit or with a loss.
  • #1,625
  • May 16, 2017 9:21pm May 16, 2017 9:21pm
Quoting freakout
Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
I feel somewhat of the same way, only I've been doing Forex for a shorter time. (I started trading with binary options... a mistake...) I've heard that the market is rigged (from an informed source!) and that Forex is more difficult than it used to be. From what I've seen that's true. By my paranoid thinking, the interbanks (75%+ of the market) communicate privately and decide together what basically will happen, and they like to make the market irrational. They don't want dummies with indicators to succeed. They like to do stuff to stop-out the dummies and bots.
My original intent with Forex was to keep trades open over night, but I've found this to be too risky... Things can reverse with no technical or fundamental reason, even if you think you're trading the trend... Whata know, you entered the trend on a "correction" day...
I've been thinking that to succeed you really need to catch the European or New York open and trade with 5 minute charts... Just follow the leader, forget indicators...
  • #1,626
  • May 16, 2017 9:48pm May 16, 2017 9:48pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Doesn't affect my trading by much but when a Mr. Know-it-all trader claims he is profitable, have friends in the hedge fund industry ready to invest millions and later on I find out he is in his late 20s living in the basement of this parents house barely able to support himself and living off rebates.... it pisses me off. Another dude just doesn't want to share his code after spending a lot of time discussing strategy or this dude who...
Well, the world is full of sh** not just in the trading world, if you believe that you can make it on the other side then just stay focus on the things that you should be doing in your trading and dont get distracted by these nonsense. Real trader knows what real and not, just ignore them.
  • #1,627
  • May 16, 2017 9:56pm May 16, 2017 9:56pm
If a bear attracts you in the forest -- do you fault the bear ??
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #1,628
  • May 17, 2017 12:33am May 17, 2017 12:33am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} you sure? who's money i'm taking? is it yours? somebody's paying my mortgage.. {image}
Would you like to share some of that $$$ for me.
  • #1,629
  • May 17, 2017 2:00am May 17, 2017 2:00am
Quoting dkrock
{quote}
where is the money in it? You can analyze and play economics till the cows come home, but that is just talk
yeah well it can't be useless since all the large participants in this market spend tens of thousands a month on news terminals. You only need to look at reaction to news events to see there is some relevance to this else the likes of Bloomberg and Reuters wouldn't exist. So to say its just talk and question where the money is, frankly this is naive and your standpoint on this casts doubt on your professional capacity.


Quoting dkrock
{quote}
It is a matter of trading theory vs trading reality
I have first hand experience at over a dozen major investment banks and hedge funds in a professional capacity. They not only use fundamentals , they additionally apply financial models to all their trading activity. The reality is the money that moves the markets operates off the back of fundamental analysis for the most part. There is a small area that operates off automated trading however this is by no stretch even close in scope to their traditional strategies. So while you might assume your approach to be reality and fundamental theory, you are as they say, smoking your socks.

Quoting dkrock
{quote}
I am not a buy and hold investor
This comment proves you really know very little about fundamental analysis.


Quoting dkrock
{quote}
As a trader, I pinpoint areas where price moves vertical and then I enter and exit according to that movement. I don't really care why it moves
It's like driving a car and staring at the review mirror for guidance on where you need to break and turn.
  • #1,630
  • May 17, 2017 2:22am May 17, 2017 2:22am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} ....and through the mist of orcish narrative their occasionally is a gem. Thanks for the discussion Singua and Hanover...... This is what emerges from a debate as opposed to diatribe. Here is an interesting podcast from Laurent Bernut to support your case singua http://bettersystemtrader.com/091-le...aurent-bernut/
orcish...

Only very intelligent people, or fans of the Lord of the Rings use that word.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,631
  • May 17, 2017 2:29am May 17, 2017 2:29am
Quoting hanover
{quote}I would challenge anybody to devise a system using coin-toss entries whose overall P/L can't be improved upon by using analysis-based entries.
This is truth. Money management is what makes or breaks a trader in my view, but entries do matter. I know I said you can make a strat out of any kind of method if you adhere to the traders equation, but taking entries seriously does have an impact.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,632
  • May 17, 2017 2:36am May 17, 2017 2:36am
All I can say, after trading these dumb markets for 20 plus years....trade less....what ever your strategy is...trade less...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,633
  • May 17, 2017 3:05am May 17, 2017 3:05am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} You can end the discussion if you want but you cannot put an end to statistical results. Certainly a degree of reliability does lead to "some probability" (:
Would you be prepared to do a simple statistical exercise then, one that I set for you? I guarantee it won't take you longer than an hour.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,634
  • May 17, 2017 3:14am May 17, 2017 3:14am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Exactly. You are a position trader, or pretend to be a position trader, and I am not. I could care less about the things you think are important. The "professionals" all trade like that because that is how they were taught. Monkey see, monkey do. Why? Because the vast majority of them are salesmen or friends of friends and have ZERO training in economics, finance, accounting, statistics, trigonometry, algebra, geometry, calculus, etc. That leaves them at a big disadvantage against traders like me, but hey, you gotta teach them to trade by...

wrong on all points.
  • #1,635
  • May 17, 2017 3:21am May 17, 2017 3:21am
Quoting dkrock
{quote}All I need to do is follow the pattern that you and all the other apes create.
its the apes that moves the market, not you and all your squiggly lines. It's laughable to the point my muscles are sore that you actually believe this crap. You do know that patterns you trade also exist in charts of volcanic activity, criminal activity, global warming. Yes apparently clever clogs like yourself seem to believe that a pattern on the chart, lets call it pattern abc, is related in outcome and underlying dynamics to pattern abc that formed 2 weeks ago. Do you realise how stupid this is, i guess not but such is life (full of idiots)
  • #1,636
  • May 17, 2017 3:24am May 17, 2017 3:24am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} orcish... Only very intelligent people, or fans of the Lord of the Rings use that word.
What is this Lord of the Rings of which you speak?....../tic........ Hi J :-)

Mordor is growing restless it appears.
  • #1,637
  • May 17, 2017 3:48am May 17, 2017 3:48am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} The best trading systems need no money management techniques. No SL No TP No martingale No grid No scale in/out MM is like training wheels. For beginners.
LoL....
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -769
  • #1,638
  • May 17, 2017 3:53am May 17, 2017 3:53am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} The best trading systems need no money management techniques. No SL No TP No martingale No grid No scale in/out MM is like training wheels. For beginners.
Yes sir, LTCM thought the very same thing, and you will be where they are, in due time.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I have this system with bold. If you consider trading small sizes (like 100 micros or 10 mini instead of one 1 lot position) not a scale in/out then make that bold too. I have struggled to successfully apply MM. Every time I apply MM or increase position size during the week, it decays my performance. May be it is in my head :-( This is really what my automation goal has been... to design a system that can absorb shocks from any market event and not make a significant dent (under 10%) to my portfolio. EDIT: I am able...
I think you are bird watcher. So at some point you do cut losses. Cutting losses is money management. Trading small is the key to your success.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,639
  • May 17, 2017 3:58am May 17, 2017 3:58am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} its the apes that moves the market, not you and all your squiggly lines. It's laughable to the point my muscles are sore that you actually believe this crap. You do know that patterns you trade also exist in charts of volcanic activity, criminal activity, global warming. Yes apparently clever clogs like yourself seem to believe that a pattern on the chart, lets call it pattern abc, is related in outcome and underlying dynamics to pattern abc that formed 2 weeks ago. Do you realise how stupid this is, i guess not but such is life (full of...
It's funny because you think you're right and we don't understand fundamentals. But really you're wrong and repeating what you've been told. For a guy that supposedly worked at half a dozen financial institutions you really aren't too bright on this subject.

A monkey could make money at a financial institution trading fundamentals. To succeed you're going to have to be a little more clever than a monkey.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,640
  • May 17, 2017 4:00am May 17, 2017 4:00am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} What is this Lord of the Rings of which you speak?....../tic........ Hi J :-) Mordor is growing restless it appears.
Mordor is quite restless indeed!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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