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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,401
  • May 16, 2017 3:20pm May 16, 2017 3:20pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} haha. the irony Well- the daily wrap up is coming a bit early, as I have a meeting to attend @ 4:30. Obvious what happened, less obvious what to do about it.. Trump causing a sell off in dollar in what can only be described as wall street's confidence indicator in Trumps ability to do anything of value for the nation. I will admit we are way out of my anticipated range, however; fade the extreme is still in play due to ST outlook, and now- we are at the top of the mid term range. Looking to fade, as I believe this is a knee jerk exhaustion...
haha, well I expected the flow on Macron not Trump but technically it worked as you say. In any case did not play it and Im still very very hesitant to add shorts as should happen when we are on the extreme in sell outlook ST. would do it in normal trading times we had before Trump era - was so easy to have normal measured moves on fundamentals and not politics BS. I think the markets are very close to a breaking point if this political course continue. will squeeze every penny in ATH equities while quietly moving to prepositioning in gold and treasuries before the fire starts. I think the "wild card" of risk-off is getting less and less wild.

I may be wrong and all settles well but this seems to me the most dangerous times since I have started trading (3-4 years).
  • #151,402
  • May 16, 2017 3:23pm May 16, 2017 3:23pm
Quoting hoom
is it me or half [more] of the thread is caught pants down on euro shorts @Goose do you still see 1.061x as a valid target for June ECB/FED combo ! no one mentionned the runaway gap which is a solid indicator for the strength in a trend . hints of end of Qe /headlines/tweets/Trumponomics/priced in Hike > a recipe so complex to choose the path of least resistance in euro ?!!
i can't understand just blindly entering shorts/longs on a strong move from predetermined levels, without at least a very tight stop. Notice gator will use a stop of a few ticks mostly because he understands the risk. To trade like this you must use a tight stop (ie couple ticks) in these situations or get ready for an ass spanking. Long term you will fail trying to be a hero of 40-50pip stops randomly guessing highs or lows. Shorting this move up was equivalent to trying to catch the falling knife. Why not at least wait for confirmation of a rejection first, then short on a retest of it? Or, if you like a spot, enter but put stop just above and move to breakeven on a rejection quick. Too many worried about making money rather than not losing it. I know I lost so much money trading like this in the past. I understand human nature to be counter-trend though, I've done this many times myself and ask why later. Fear of missing out is a bitch. You live and learn or quit i guess
  • #151,403
  • May 16, 2017 3:28pm May 16, 2017 3:28pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} haha, well I expected the flow on Macron not Trump but technically it worked as you say. In any case did not play it and Im still very very hesitant to add shorts as should happen when we are on the extreme in sell outlook ST. would do it in normal trading times we had before Trump era - was so easy to have normal measured moves on fundamentals and not politics BS. I think the markets are very close to a breaking point if this political course continue. will squeeze every penny in ATH equities while quietly moving to prepositioning in gold...
I agree with you, please dont take what I said to mean that I have shorted. I am watching, but not blindly shorting on a 100 pip bull daily bar as maybe bhmoney may think. I'd like to scale in with a weekly close @ or below 1.102x which would serve as a good indicator for me

A daily close below 1.1073 would be good start, doubtful at this point. I'm late for my meeting, ciao!
  • #151,404
  • May 16, 2017 3:41pm May 16, 2017 3:41pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} For discussion purposes! After French election, EU was down from 1.1019 to 1.0840 and stopped at this level because Trump news (I.e., firing the FBI Comey who was investigating on him!!). From that moment, the Risk Off has taken over FA expectations, which doesn't mean that Goose analysis was wrong. "A new factor" came into effect and took over any analysis. This said, Goose analysis might still in play; all depends on how media fade the risk off to bring us back to FA and ECB/FOMC plans. As long as Sisse does not change the EU outlooks,...
I think while much can be blamed on Trump, the fact that ST shorts are not working well is better blamed on MT and ST levels in play right in the same area here. A rather small (so far) reaction to a rather small (so far) event threw ST calculations and levels out the window and left only midterm worth considering. This is what tripped me up twice now. I need to keep in mind where we are at all times and I've been a bit dense with that apparently.
Sisse said I would go back to what I wrote the other week later on. Here it is in black and white (and I wrote it ffs!) Still managed to miss my own point lol.

"W rolling bullish above 1.093x and 1.097x with 1.110x/1.112x now back on radar."

Aside: Its interesting to see what a mini EU reaction looks like with the beginnings of an "event" like this news. It wasn't clear to me exactly what that would be. Gives clues for what something larger (this one may develop into that) would do.
  • #151,405
  • May 16, 2017 3:45pm May 16, 2017 3:45pm
A superb day(s) for trading. Action packed everywhere with DT on the brink of triggering a wave of major proportions in markets, foreign policy and internal politics...

Here today we got critical updates in Gold, Dollar, Yen* and to put the cherry on top, US Equities changed outlook for the first time since election back in Nov ...

Plenty of trading opportunities across the board so GL all trading or planning to trade...

sisse

Quoting chester123
{quote} I think equities are today set to make the very last extension of the current highs no matter what before big money jumps of it. gold and treasuries are quite telling what is after that as you pointed out
Here is the last link from the chain on US Equities. All of them played flawlessly, don't forget (and I hope you put Yen* into your trading workspace as discussed) to add into the equation the shift and risk deleveraging from yen* to euro* after french elections....

Quoting sisse
{quote}Ride the pig mate [check] ....we'll clean the blood stains and pick up the pieces on the way down after.

--> Markets are heavily loaded to the top side....
Quote
--> Mid term expectations map is getting clearer in the US economy. We wont selloff until either DT completely flop ...

Some of the largest corporation in the US can make a killer .... Its better for them to give him as 'much time' as necessary before he shoot himself in the foot [in play] (he will, almost guarantee) or[/highlight]...


Quoting Pharm0r
Quoting sisse
{quote} cocky? ...hmm, ok lets see how it goes... {quote}
{quote} haha. the irony Well- the daily wrap up is coming a bit early...
No further comments on that part.

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You give goosebone FED and me.....unemployment claims? ...
Still, and now particularly with more attention, reading your upcoming comments for the rest of the week. We are in the most important week in the Euro this year and prolly for the rest of 2017. You will need to be extremely sharp in both your analysis and trading ...easy week? ... GL ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,406
  • May 16, 2017 3:56pm May 16, 2017 3:56pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I agree with you, please dont take what I said to mean that I have shorted. I am watching, but not blindly shorting on a 100 pip bull daily bar as maybe bhmoney may think. I'd like to scale in with a weekly close @ or below 1.102x which would serve as a good indicator for me A daily close below 1.1073 would be good start, doubtful at this point. I'm late for my meeting, ciao!

not referring to you at all, retail traders in general. if you look across all of forex factory, you will find a 100 different levels people went short at it today, all losers. The only short winners this week were those who were patient and waited for longer term, or never got the rejection they were looking for. One quick look at the dollar chart showed a total breakdown that would be tough to stop and reverse on a dime. I mean look at this chart from yesterday, with the follow through today... Anyone that has looked at charts knows that chart yesterday don't look good. What tomorrow brings who knows now that we have an extension, but I do know one thing, patience pays.
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  • #151,407
  • May 16, 2017 4:08pm May 16, 2017 4:08pm
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  • #151,408
  • May 16, 2017 4:28pm May 16, 2017 4:28pm
Idk, I don't think it was completely unreasonable to take a small shot at 1.097 yesterday after a clean 100pip move up, a trio of wicks on the hourly and bf the leaky white house news. 99.20/98.80 had previously been decent support in the DX. Here's to tight stops indeed...
  • #151,409
  • May 16, 2017 4:41pm May 16, 2017 4:41pm
Comey Memo Says Trump Asked Him to End Flynn Investigation
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/16/u...stigation.html
  • #151,410
  • May 16, 2017 4:46pm May 16, 2017 4:46pm
Quoting ashenv
Idk, I don't think it was completely unreasonable to take a small shot at 1.097 yesterday after a clean 100pip move up, a trio of wicks on the hourly and bf the leaky white house news. 99.20/98.80 had previously been decent support in the DX. Here's to tight stops indeed...

that's my point.... if you do decide to step in front at a level, use a tight stop. If you love a level and market is already 10 pips above, most of the time that indicates your level wasn't shit. Nobody else wanted to step in where you did, get out. I don't understand 50/100 pip stops. If it goes by your level, I am sure there is another level higher you can find for a shot. Only difference is if your scaling into a range with a predetermined plan. OR, wait until you see rejection from the level, wait for a retest, then short into it with stop at high of 1st move. I guess if one is a part time retail doing this for a hobby it doesn't really matter. But if this business trading is your livelihood, then by all means protect your business... Now that I think of it though, probably not many are doing this for their income, most have regular 9-5 jobs here to fall back on. If you own a business, more power to you. Good to diversify.
  • #151,411
  • May 16, 2017 4:55pm May 16, 2017 4:55pm
Quoting bhmoney
Comey Memo Says Trump Asked Him to End Flynn Investigation https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/16/u...stigation.html
Oh man DT can't catch a break.


and I love it (albeit I feel sorry for the US)
  • #151,412
  • May 16, 2017 4:55pm May 16, 2017 4:55pm
Agree- was mostly thinking out loud. I certainly agree with your point that trying any level today was reckless. I tend to try with stops between 15-20pips when trading ST. I think there's some merit to 50/100 pips stops when trading MT or LT only, but in my case, I usually do so with reduced position size.
  • #151,413
  • May 16, 2017 5:07pm May 16, 2017 5:07pm
Quoting bhmoney
{quote} Only difference is if your scaling into a range with a predetermined plan..
Exactly.
  • #151,414
  • May 16, 2017 5:10pm May 16, 2017 5:10pm
Quoting msfu
{quote} Oh man DT can't catch a break. and I love it (albeit I feel sorry for the US)
Thats a big one. Or not. Hard to tell anymore. Normally thats a big one. Remember normal?
  • #151,415
  • May 16, 2017 5:17pm May 16, 2017 5:17pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Thats a big one. Or not. Hard to tell anymore. Normally thats a big one. Remember normal?
I get what you mean but I can't help but see a timeline where everything, on a political level only hopefully, ends up in tears. It is possible that fuck all happens and I am reading too much into it. We will see.
  • #151,416
  • May 16, 2017 5:24pm May 16, 2017 5:24pm
Quoting msfu
{quote} I get what you mean but I can't help but see a timeline where everything, on a political level only hopefully, ends up in tears. It is possible that fuck all happens and I am reading too much into it. We will see.
No, I agree it's coming. Just marvelling at the fact its not here yet given what we already got.
  • #151,417
  • May 16, 2017 5:34pm May 16, 2017 5:34pm
There must be some political calculus where his support is so low it threatens Republican Congressional hegemony. The point in which the Republicans can look like heroes by removing him and thus save their bacon come November is the fulcrum here imho. 38% and counting... A few more bombshells re: obstructing justice, actual Russia probe indictments, a massive flop on his upcoming international trip, a provable paper link to him colluding with Russia bf the election, etc. - could trigger the 'exhaustion leg' to borrow a term. There's a lot of Republicans already seeming to have lost patience. Either they need to act now to reign him
in and go full bore on the legislative agenda or turn their back on him sooner rather than later to preserve themselves in time for the fall. Interesting times.
  • #151,418
  • May 16, 2017 5:43pm May 16, 2017 5:43pm
Anyone knows what is the JPY rumored/alleged bottom line for BOJ fx intervention?
  • #151,419
  • May 16, 2017 5:49pm May 16, 2017 5:49pm
Coincidentally, the DXY began falling from close to the same levels we have today as the Clinton impeachment of Jan 1999 began picking up steam during the fall of 1998. It touched 91.40 from 102.50 a couple months bf it was executed (and dismissed with censure). I haven't researched this to be sure it wasn't some other factor (dot.com bubble perhaps) that explains this, but it's a bit uncanny.
  • #151,420
  • May 16, 2017 5:50pm May 16, 2017 5:50pm
Quoting sisse
ote} {quote} {quote}{quote} No further comments on that part. {quote} Still, and now particularly with more attention, reading your upcoming comments for the rest of the week. We are in the most important week in the Euro this year and prolly for the rest of 2017. You will need to be extremely sharp in both your analysis and trading ...easy week? ... GL ... sisse
Well don't set the bar to high or anything
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