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5 years and still no strategy

  • #1,601
  • May 16, 2017 12:53pm May 16, 2017 12:53pm
after 3 years i think today i jumped this probleme i think i finally found my hard strategy but an other psycological problem appears ..... whene i win i thnik hard it is a chance and whene i lose a position i find the reasons and i say to my self because i missed this or that rul !!!that make me angry ....i demo i am really better an idea a solution !!! help
https://img4.hostingpics.net/pics/43599463ff.png
  • #1,602
  • May 16, 2017 12:55pm May 16, 2017 12:55pm
Quoting sinqua
Therefore entries are not exactly relevant in themselves....... What made it a great trade/loss was your exit.
It depends on the nature of your edge.

A discretionary trader uses analysis to forecast imminent price behavior. If that analysis provides an edge via his entries, i.e. his forecasting is better than 50/50, then his entries are important. If his exits are analysis based, and the analysis is on-balance valid, then his exits are important. If you're using analysis -- technical, fundamental, 'price action', whatever -- then you're forecasting, or at least attempting to forecast, whether you acknowledge it or not. (Whereas traders who believe that price movement is completely random walk are also effectively stating that all analysis is futile).

With a mechanical trader, the forecasting is implicitly coded into his entry/exit rules. Again, the edge can lie within the entries, exits, or both.

I agree that entries are insignificant if the trader is using coin toss, i.e. attempting to exploit the 'fat tail' nature of price distribution. Then, exactly as you say, only the exit is important in determining the outcome. A good exit is one that limits losses, and maximizes profits from whatever trends ensue. Of course these moves must be long/frequent enough to deliver a RR/win rate that's sufficient to overcome br0ker costs, across the long term. That is the basis behind a 'trend following' system.

The trader profiled here is a discretionary trader. He uses a predominantly TA based approach and gains a significant part of his edge from his entries.
  • #1,603
  • May 16, 2017 12:59pm May 16, 2017 12:59pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} It's not mine....actually I think your aren't taking anybodies money hilmy. Your are just working in the marketing departement of a forex broker or for an introducing broker paid with peanuts to keep the dream alive and lure in new victims. Don't you? So it is far more likely that your mortgage is either paid by your wife, your daddy or your mom or you are in foreclosure.... But please don't go into more details....
lol you're so triggered. i love it.

but you're right on one thing...i want to keep the dream alive. we can't let forex die.
  • #1,604
  • May 16, 2017 1:05pm May 16, 2017 1:05pm
Yeahh exactly....triggered.

So before you take a drive in your wife's BMW to vent your frustration, please elaborate a bit more on who is "we".
  • #1,605
  • May 16, 2017 1:08pm May 16, 2017 1:08pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
Yeahh exactly....triggered. So before you take a drive in your wife's BMW to vent your frustration, please elaborate a bit more on who is "we".
Us. The ones that understand that there is no 'we' and so there is an 'us'.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,606
  • May 16, 2017 1:13pm May 16, 2017 1:13pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
Yeahh exactly....triggered. So before you take a drive in your wife's BMW to vent your frustration, please elaborate a bit more on who is "we".
lol

we are the profitable ones. quite a few of us actually. i know 2 personally on this forum. they keep their shit private. but not me, that's cause i'm a bit of a narcissist. they do advise me to chill from time to time though
  • #1,607
  • May 16, 2017 1:23pm May 16, 2017 1:23pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} lol we are the profitable ones. quite a few of us actually. i know 2 personally on this forum. they keep their shit private. but not me, that's cause i'm a bit of a narcissist. they do advise me to chill from time to time though
I wonder if there would be more or less of us if the forum didn't exist. The success rate would probably go up since there would be a lot fewer failed strategies but then we'd profit less
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,608
  • May 16, 2017 1:27pm May 16, 2017 1:27pm
Quoting AlinaLee
My Forex trading strategy is based entirely on price action, no indicators, no confusing techniques, just pure price.

Like a boss.

Quoting Redeflect
{quote} I wonder if there would be more or less of us if the forum didn't exist :-/. The success rate would probably go up since there would be a lot fewer failed strategies but then we'd profit less

that's a paradox, isn't it?
pretty conflicting.
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch
  • #1,609
  • May 16, 2017 1:29pm May 16, 2017 1:29pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I would agree.... and if you have figured out his multi-dimensional (6 if I recall) exits that would be icing. To me, it is pure waste of time to figure out who is doing what to become successful. At the end of the day, if you cannot automate their strategy, you are prone to fail as there is no way to clone their thought process or experience that have gained. It has been two years now that I gave up following and discussing strategies with fellow traders. no more distractions and I am loving it.
This strategy can be easily automated. I will be posting the thread around New York Open tomorrow.
  • #1,610
  • May 16, 2017 1:40pm May 16, 2017 1:40pm
Redeflect, you are still in the "go ask Ed mode".... the last time you didn't really get what I meant with this sentence......
Maybe this time... Thank you for sharing your progress.
  • #1,611
  • Edited 2:02pm May 16, 2017 1:43pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
Redeflect, you are still in the "go ask Ed mode".... the last time you didn't really get what I meant with this sentence...... Maybe this time... Thank you for sharing your progress.
Don't need to ask. Already incorporated it. ED revealed one of the thresholds. He didn't show me anything I didn't already understand.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,612
  • May 16, 2017 2:36pm May 16, 2017 2:36pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} It depends on the nature of your edge. A discretionary trader uses analysis to forecast imminent price behavior. If that analysis provides an edge via his entries, i.e. his forecasting is better than 50/50, then his entries are important. If his exits are analysis based, and the analysis is on-balance valid, then his exits are important. If you're using analysis -- technical, fundamental, 'price action', whatever -- then you're forecasting, or at least attempting to forecast, whether you acknowledge it or not. (Whereas traders...
Ah hanover, nice to have your input, how to explain this??? Let me attempt.

1. His forecasting is better than 50/50, then his entries are important
Here you have automatically associated his entry with his forecasting results. Instead lets begin from the beginning:
To get a forecasting of any ratio in the first place - he must EXIT
if he has a bad exit method his forecasting will be bad, if its good ...

Example: 10 people can enter at the same price, same direction and still end up with different outcomes (ranging between large profit - large loss). This must
mean that the price in which they entered carried no inherent bias/edge. The edge was only revealed upon final exit.

This is why its sooo difficult teaching another person how to trade successfully.

2. If you're using analysis -- technical, fundamental, 'price action', whatever -- then you're forecasting, or at least attempting to forecast, whether you acknowledge it or not
I agree with this, furthermore, for one who is forecasting, he/she/it is guessing, the advantage/disadvantage of that price is an unknown, unfolding events determine
the efficacy of the guess - meaning whatever price and direction entered becomes a calculated guess..we can both agree, a guess is far from an edge

Q. What is an edge?
A. An edge is an infallible advantage a trader acquires.

Therefore an entry having an inherent edge would not require an SL or emergency exit of any sort, as the 'edge' itself covers for it i.e the price offers an infallible advantage (gosh this is difficult to explain, I hope I am communicating so far). If you entered at a price with an edge and choose not to exit in profit, well you will end up at a loss...no edge there.

Discretionary traders are not bending/breaking the assumption:
They have simply been able find a consistent reason/bias/conviction (knowingly/unknowingly) to carry out their exit plan. They have finally been able to define a fairly consistent reference point from which to carry out their exit plan.

This brings me to another assumption I believe people erroneously make: That successful discretionary traders, are simply discretionary - doing things on a whim, not so, the brain is an immensely powerful machine, a discretionary trader processes so much information by the second, doing way more than any quant, EA, etc out there, you see it in times when a discretionary trader enters on his/her perceived edge but exits (at a loss/profit) before hitting SL/TP. You can also see it in the amount of technology its taking to build autonomous vehicles all whilst some people have been known to navigate traffic absentmindedly.

In Summary:
An entry itself is simply a traders reference point, it is neutral... this is the point from which the real analysis should begin IMHO. Not before/after. I suspect successful traders are doing this knowingly/unknowingly.

I have also come to believe newcomers are assembling the parts required for trading upside-down:

Normally it is something along the lines of: (Entry --> S.L/TP/Exit --> Risk/MM/Account Balance) psychology --- This should be reversed in order of importance! & as a result the psychology will take care of itself.

I hope there are no more confusions.

P.S: Appreciate those who take the time to make long posts meaningful or not. Its bloody HARD WORK!. I should be paid for this whew!
  • #1,613
  • Edited 5:05pm May 16, 2017 2:57pm | Edited 5:05pm
Quoting nix386
after 3 years i think today i jumped this probleme i think i finally found my hard strategy but an other psycological problem appears ..... whene i win i thnik hard it is a chance and whene i lose a position i find the reasons and i say to my self because i missed this or that rul !!!that make me angry ....i demo i am really better an idea a solution !!! help {image}
Becoming psychologically stable in trading is the hardest thing to do, that is why even if you have a profitable strategy you will still end losing in the long run because you keep on making trading mistakes that can harm your capital, it took me almost 8 years to finally achieve such feat and it depends on the will of a particular trader on how he can control his emotions during trading will spell the difference, I think it is important for traders to realize that full trust to you trading system is a must otherwise it will be harder for you to follow your trading rule all the time, emphasis of discipline is on top of the list, the right approach may differ from trader to trader but at the end of the day it is you and you alone can answer your question, you know what to do it is just you cannot implement it in a day by day basis, being discipline and psychologically stable during trading is a skill that every trader must develop, otherwise it will be very hard if not impossible to be a successful and profitable trader.
  • #1,614
  • May 16, 2017 3:06pm May 16, 2017 3:06pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} That is why you have to build a trading plan with consistency. Then you can teach it to family and friends. They each pick their pair. You use a trade copier to copy each other's trades into each other's account. Ten friends, ten pairs. 50 pips each = 500 pips each. That is how you compound and diversify. Your work does not change, but you gain 90% more activity per day. As Jean Paul Getty said "I would rather earn 1% off the efforts of 100 people than 100% off the efforts of myself".
That's madness. Every day the greatest opportunity exists when the macro fundamentals lay the foundation for long term trends to give a basis for a general pairing of strong VS weak. Daily news and sentiment then play roles in confirmation of the macro or short term deviations. Trading pairs without this can't offer anything more than coincidental luck. You can't honestly believe that any chart analysis can provide you this context because a chart can't tell you anything else outside past data and price doesn't take cue from historical price, it takes its cue from fundamental data and sentiment.
  • #1,615
  • May 16, 2017 3:19pm May 16, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} That's madness. Every day the greatest opportunity exists when the macro fundamentals lay the foundation for long term trends to give a basis for a general pairing of strong VS weak. Daily news and sentiment then play roles in confirmation of the macro or short term deviations. Trading pairs without this can't offer anything more than coincidental luck. You can't honestly believe that any chart analysis can provide you this context because a chart can't tell you anything else outside past data and price doesn't take cue from historical price,...
Spoken like a true unknower.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,616
  • May 16, 2017 3:23pm May 16, 2017 3:23pm
Quoting AlinaLee
My Forex trading strategy is based entirely on price action, no indicators, no confusing techniques, just pure price.
Care to elaborate? An annotated chart? Green pips to you. Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #1,617
  • May 16, 2017 3:28pm May 16, 2017 3:28pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Care to elaborate? An annotated chart? Green pips to you. Cheers!
Seemed self-explanatory
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,618
  • May 16, 2017 3:48pm May 16, 2017 3:48pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Spoken like a true unknower.
Yeah maybe I should give up being profitable and start looking at squiggly lines and flashing lights. Hopefully one day I'll end up as stupid as you and we can sing kumbay
  • #1,619
  • Edited 5:07pm May 16, 2017 4:24pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} This is exactly the reason why I hate forums and skype. It shatters your confidence and distracts your focus with hearing jabs from others who just don't understand what goes on in my head lol
Its what you called realities in trading my friend.....traders must deal with it face to face, if you cannot handle the truth then find another profession....you got to be as tough as nail to survive....
  • #1,620
  • May 16, 2017 6:04pm May 16, 2017 6:04pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Yeah maybe I should give up being profitable and start looking at squiggly lines and flashing lights. Hopefully one day I'll end up as stupid as you and we can sing kumbay
Apparently you were never much good at math
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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