The Really Useless Thread | Page 7565 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,281
  • May 15, 2017 11:14am May 15, 2017 11:14am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Hit my pending at 1.0965 and added some there. Will pull half at 885 if I get the chance.
I pulled the trigger now too. Stalling at 1.098 area. Lets see.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #151,282
  • May 15, 2017 11:26am May 15, 2017 11:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} here it is with 129.64.. taken a shot.. with the 76.4 stop..plus some.. {image}
wht is the target price?
  • #151,283
  • May 15, 2017 12:06pm May 15, 2017 12:06pm
Quoting Fadhl
I read the following article, but I don't know the credibility of the source. However, it seems very interesting for Central banks future moves. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...l-bank-crisis/ What do you think about it's last paragraph? "The balance sheets of both the Japanese central bank and the ECB are unlikely to follow the Fed just yet. A withdrawal of the ECBs purchases of securities could produced the most widespread damage in Europe since the Dark Ages."
That is so far from being a credible source on macroeconomics. I had a brief look at the article and found a quite a few thought of his that betrayed an ignorance of the monetary system and central bank operations.
  • #151,284
  • May 15, 2017 12:46pm May 15, 2017 12:46pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} That is so far from being a credible source on macroeconomics. I had a brief look at the article and found a quite a few thought of his that betrayed an ignorance of the monetary system and central bank operations.
Thanks for your input! Much appreciated!
  • #151,285
  • May 15, 2017 1:48pm May 15, 2017 1:48pm
Quoting Fadhl
I read the following article, but I don't know the credibility of the source. However, it seems very interesting for Central banks future moves. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...l-bank-crisis/ What do you think about it's last paragraph? "The balance sheets of both the Japanese central bank and the ECB are unlikely to follow the Fed just yet. A withdrawal of the ECBs purchases of securities could produced the most widespread damage in Europe since the Dark Ages."

Quoting gammase1
{quote} That is so far from being a credible source on macroeconomics. I had a brief look at the article and found a quite a few thought of his that betrayed an ignorance of the monetary system and central bank operations.

Can't say I found anything in that short article which was overly false and it seemed quite legitimate and plausible a viewpoint (apart form the hyperbole of the "dark ages" in that last paragraph ha ha!), but then I'm no expert in such matters and am willing to stand corrected by others more knowledgable . However, I do believe (and most agree here) that bond rates have been kept artificially low due to ECB activity for all EU member states and most especially in the periphery countries such as Portugal, Ireland etc. As soon as ECB pulls the plug on purchases these borrowing costs will begin to soar no doubt, because in Ireland for example there is still a huge % debt to GDP ratio and also the banks still have huge legacy bad debts on their books from the property crash where NPL's (non performing loans) and negative equity for mortgage holders are still huge problems yet to be worked through ...once interest rates begin to rise the mortgage delinquencies will accelerate ...I believe Spain also had such a comparable property crash. I think the ECB will be very very cautious about increasing rates or ending bond purchases too abruptly.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #151,286
  • Edited 3:59pm May 15, 2017 2:44pm | Edited 3:59pm
EU- I like 950 as a level to fade because of reasons posted before. (outlooks and 950 being a extension of March high on W mainly). So now it seems important (if NY close today is above that level and no break of 1.102x) to pinpoint where soft stops are in order to see more clearly whether I'm on the right track with it. If eu gets that close, a test of 1.101x looks good for clearing soft hands for a move lower. Breach of 1.104x means back to the drawing board for me. Not sure I've the real feel of how soft is soft though. Could be my stops I should be watching. You know what they say if you look around the room and you can't find the mark.
  • #151,287
  • May 15, 2017 4:08pm May 15, 2017 4:08pm
You are correct goose, we know exactly where the soft (short term) bear hands are in the EU, as evidenced by the only real bearish candle (and high) this month.

Choppy day, as expected most of the week as we are in calm waters, slight bullish close for short term- agree with goose that 1.0950 is the rain maker for current ST range. Irrelevant close mid term.

GU looks to be consolidating before CPI tomorrow
  • #151,288
  • May 15, 2017 4:12pm May 15, 2017 4:12pm
Quote
Trump revealed highly classified information to Russian diplomats in their Oval Office meeting last week

Tic toc goes the time bomb

https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=664849

A tweet from the left leaning washington post....they'll need proof or Trump (again) will shred them (fake news mantra) as he's done with most news outlets reporting hear say information based on anonymous sources
  • #151,289
  • Edited 4:43pm May 15, 2017 4:29pm | Edited 4:43pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Tic toc goes the time bomb https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=664849 A tweet from the left leaning washington post....they'll need proof or Trump (again) will shred them (fake news mantra) as he's done with most news outlets reporting hear say information based on anonymous sources
Woah looks legit. He may have finally stepped in some bonafide dogdirt this time. This: "For most anyone in government discussing such matters with an adversary would be illegal. As president, Trump has broad authority to declassify government secrets, making it unlikely that his disclosures broke the law." is disconcerting.
Waiting to see who else picks up the story.
  • #151,290
  • May 15, 2017 4:39pm May 15, 2017 4:39pm
Quoting CommercialB
Quoting Fadhl I read the following article, but I don't know the credibility of the source. However, it seems very interesting for Central banks future moves. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...l-bank-crisis/ What do you think about it's last paragraph? "The balance sheets of both the Japanese central bank and the ECB are unlikely to follow the Fed just yet. A...
Firstly, I think you make some salient points regarding the risks to the fragile recoveries of some countries (those with over-indebted private sectors) of the Eurozone to increased borrowing costs. And you are right in positing that the ECB will be very cautious about unwinding purchases too quickly and won't be shy about pausing or reversing course, should the need arise.

The hyperbole is common with this type of "economist", using such alarmist language ("the coming crash", "world war" etc) purely to further market themselves as a brand. Martin Armstrong is a convicted fraudster, who has served a long prison sentence for financial misdemeanours.

With regards to his article, I can pick out the following errors (a few rhetorical questions included in my prose):

1) European Central Bank (ECB) and the Japanese central bank and when they exit their Quantitative Easing programs, their economies are not the reserve currency and lack a solid bid from international capital. The end of QE will lead to a sharp increase in yields on the bond markets, and thus the financing costs for the states will explode

Financial markets are allowed to determine yields on JGBs only so far as the government allows. When the BOJ said they'd buy "unlimited" quantities of JGBs in order to meet their inflationary objectives, you had many commentators predicting this would lead to the collapse of the yen, hyper-inflation, followed by rocketing interest rates. Now the BOJ owns roughly 50% of outstanding JGBs and did we see any of the much-touted doom and gloom predictions?

If the BOJ started to wind down their QE programme (unlikely - why would they need to?) and financing costs did "explode" for Japan, what does he think the BOJ will do in such a scenario? Does he believe they will sit on their hands, as their monetary policy objectives are shot to pieces and the economy crashes or would they halt any unwind of QE and, if need be, reverse course. The same remains true for the ECB.

2) The crisis emerges when governments, who are the ones who have been subsidized since 2008, find no bid for their paper.

Moreover, he's missing a crucial fact that the Eurozone and Japan both run trade surpluses, meaning their currencies (and government paper, providing the central banks act as a buyer of last resort) are already solidly bid, as they export their output around the globe.

3) As central banks appeared as omnipotent purchasers of government bonds to the un-savvy trader, the yields of the debt by no means reflect the risk of a default in the countrys payments.

There is no default or solvency risk on US, UK or Japanese sovereign debt. All three countries are the issuers and monopolists of free-floating currencies and only borrow in these currencies. The governments of these countries can simply never run out of dollars, sterling or yen to meet any obligations.

4) we will see the capital flight from bonds to equities unfold.

If, for whatever reason, I became too nervous holding US Treasuries and sold my holdings and purchased equities. The flows within the banking sector would be as follows:

- My bank, Citigroup, a primary dealer, purchases my US Treasuries and credits my bank account with cash
- My bank transfers the cash from my checking account to the bank account of my stockbroker, held with JP Morgan, as settlement on my purchase of equities
- My stockbroker for some reason wants to hold this cash on deposit with JP Morgan rather than purchase US Treasuries
- JP Morgan now has an excess reserve balance, leaving them with the choice of earning next to nothing from the Fed on IOR (Interest On Reserves) or purchasing US Treasuries, which would earn a higher yield. What will this bank do, bearing in mind that the Fed is a part of government, so any reserve balances count as a liability of the government in the same way as US Treasuries do? They will buy US Treasuries, of course.

The above statement by Armstrong implies that the cash from the sale of bonds to the purchase of equities somehow disappears, whereas the reality is that the cash simply switches from one bank's ledger to another and somewhere in the chain, someone will choose government issued paper over cash.

He fails to grasp QE... QE is basically an asset swap, with the private sector swapping their holdings in government debt for reserves that usually earn a lower rate of interest. When QE is gradually unwound (only when CBs deem it should be done to meet monetary policy objectives), it will drain these reserves from the banking system and replace with government debt, which will earn the private sector a better rate of return, providing a net stimulative effect, in terms of interest earned, for this sector.
  • #151,291
  • May 15, 2017 4:51pm May 15, 2017 4:51pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} if anyone is still tracking gold. here is the chart I posted before. as suggested in neutral - we came back to flip. but to get higher from now on - higher than the top - I guess we will need some risk-off. most likely we will get some via DT. for now keeping neutral ST and not expecting much more action up. {image} {image}
1430.xx

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,292
  • May 15, 2017 4:54pm May 15, 2017 4:54pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Woah looks legit. He may have finally stepped in some bonafide dogdirt this time. This: "For most anyone in government discussing such matters with an adversary would be illegal. As president, Trump has broad authority to declassify government secrets, making it unlikely that his disclosures broke the law." is disconcerting. Waiting to see who else picks up the story.
the problem is, it's easy for him to dismiss it. "prove it, show me exactly what I did, exactly who saw it."

the catch 22 of being an anonymous informant, and now with a president that openly calls the press out on every single article published about him. Last person to openly come out and prove something shady was going on was Snowden...things didn't turn out to well for him

being exposed as a "leaker" "whistle blower" or "anonymous tipper" in Trumps government will be much worse than in Obama's

I don't doubt Trump is playing the game, but without proof...you cant pin the prez
  • #151,293
  • May 15, 2017 5:00pm May 15, 2017 5:00pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} the problem is, it's easy for him to dismiss it. "prove it, show me exactly what I did, exactly who saw it." the catch 22 of being an anonymous informant, and now with a president that openly calls the press out on every single article published about him. Last person to openly come out and prove something shady was going on was Snowden...things didn't turn out to well for him being exposed as a "leaker" "whistle blower" or "anonymous tipper" in Trumps government will be much worse than in Obama's I don't doubt Trump is playing the game,...
True dat.
  • #151,294
  • May 15, 2017 5:03pm May 15, 2017 5:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1430.xx sisse
So risk off! DT is playing with fire.
  • #151,295
  • May 15, 2017 5:07pm May 15, 2017 5:07pm
Damn gammase nice post
  • #151,296
  • May 15, 2017 5:10pm May 15, 2017 5:10pm
Seriously. I'll be digesting that one for a while. When the "like" button just doesn't cut it.
  • #151,297
  • May 15, 2017 5:14pm May 15, 2017 5:14pm
The difference theory gurus from someone actually doing it
  • #151,298
  • May 15, 2017 5:40pm May 15, 2017 5:40pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} Firstly, I think you make some salient points regarding the risks to the fragile recoveries of some countries (those with over-indebted private sectors) of the Eurozone to increased borrowing costs. And you are right in positing that the ECB will be very cautious about unwinding purchases too quickly and won't be shy about pausing or reversing course, should the need arise. The hyperbole is common with this type of "economist", using such alarmist language ("the coming crash", "world war" etc) purely to further market themselves as a brand....
....."and am willing to stand corrected by others more knowledgable ." ....need I say more! .. certainly eating & drinking in that post @ganmase1 thanks for the input, now to try and digest it!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #151,299
  • May 15, 2017 6:43pm May 15, 2017 6:43pm
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/15/feds-...d-be-huge.html"

"The biggest reason why there's no going back to the old balance sheet is currency. For a variety of reasons, the amount of currency in circulation has grown 7 percent a year on average over the past five years, or 3 percentage points faster than in the five years before the crisis. People are simply expressing a desire to hold more cash — ironic in a financial world that is growing more digital — and the central bank's job is to simply meet that desire for cash passively.

About $1.5 trillion of cash is currently in circulation and, if current growth rates continue, that level will be north of $2 trillion in the next five years, providing a floor for just how small the balance sheet can get."

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,300
  • Edited 7:18pm May 15, 2017 6:55pm | Edited 7:18pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} the problem is, it's easy for him to dismiss it. "prove it, show me exactly what I did, exactly who saw it." the catch 22 of being an anonymous informant, and now with a president that openly calls the press out on every single article published about him. Last person to openly come out and prove something shady was going on was Snowden...things didn't turn out to well for him being exposed as a "leaker" "whistle blower" or "anonymous tipper" in Trumps government will be much worse than in Obama's I don't doubt Trump is playing the game,...
"The story is false." Total, unequivocal denial of WaPo story from White House (McMaster) "I was there. It didn't happen."
687 traders viewing now