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Pivot Trading

  • #9,241
  • May 15, 2017 10:36am May 15, 2017 10:36am
Quoting 1PipDaddy
Hi Davit, Down from looking at the longer time frames
what you have in mind Weekly monthly?
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,242
  • May 15, 2017 10:38am May 15, 2017 10:38am
Hi davit,

I would say that it has been in a trading range since January of 2016.
"Not all those who wander are lost." - Tolken
  • #9,243
  • May 15, 2017 10:41am May 15, 2017 10:41am
uptrend
  • #9,244
  • May 15, 2017 10:42am May 15, 2017 10:42am
uptrend
  • #9,245
  • May 15, 2017 10:42am May 15, 2017 10:42am
yes. both show a overall down trend with the normal corrections.

i think
  • #9,246
  • May 15, 2017 10:46am May 15, 2017 10:46am
Down trend
Every dog has his day
  • #9,247
  • May 15, 2017 10:46am May 15, 2017 10:46am
The reason this is important because we trade SWINGS
There are SWINGS in uptrend and on downtrend however its always better to be on right side of weekly trend.Weekly trend is up and overall AU is in range.
Notice blue box I drew? That's a solid rejection candle.Price is making HH
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 38 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,248
  • May 15, 2017 10:50am May 15, 2017 10:50am
Davit,

In the weekly and monthly time frames it looks very range bound. Is that single PA candle enough to look at it as switchoing from down to up trend considering that it is in the middle of a well established range ?
  • #9,249
  • May 15, 2017 10:51am May 15, 2017 10:51am
Trend is defined by most trading books is 200MA and how banks define it as well.
Problem is I never trusted any MA's and over years understood stupidity of this concept.
You guy do see that massive losses on this concept right?Pretty lame
Take a look
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 41 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,250
  • May 15, 2017 10:52am May 15, 2017 10:52am
Quoting Davit
I deliberately try to avoid talking about trends but for fun Is AU uptrend or downtrend? If Uptrend then traditional wisdom says buy the dips and if downtrend sell the rallies. Can you guys share your opinion? This is important.Its important you understand context.Don't be shy we are here to learn from eachother {image}
Honestly speaking, identifying trend has had me confused always primarily because trends can differ based on the periodicity you are looking at. AU is pretty much in a downtrend on H4 (retracing from 50% fib level from the last leg down) but on a uptrend on H1. For the sake of this discussion, I'd say AU in downtrend since I mostly refer to 4hr timeframe
Fall seven times, stand up Eight! #GGMU
  • #9,251
  • May 15, 2017 10:52am May 15, 2017 10:52am
Quoting Davit
I deliberately try to avoid talking about trends but for fun Is AU uptrend or downtrend? If Uptrend then traditional wisdom says buy the dips and if downtrend sell the rallies. Can you guys share your opinion? This is important.Its important you understand context.Don't be shy we are here to learn from eachother {image}
Trend is down. To determine the trend I use a Keltner Chanel with the LBR settings (20 EMA, 20 ATR, 2.5 Multiplier) on the daily timeframe.
http://www.lbrgroup.com/images/Linda...ngManual-1.pdf

As you can see had I nice pullback on the 20 EMA today. But I missed it . . .


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 34 KB
  • #9,252
  • May 15, 2017 10:56am May 15, 2017 10:56am
Quoting 1PipDaddy
Davit, In the weekly and monthly time frames it looks very range bound. Is that single PA candle enough to look at it as switchoing from down to up trend considering that it is in the middle of a well established range ?
It is in the middle and has possibility going further down or continue up not every trend reaches bottom or top range some reach mid point.
Emphasis on my system is on Swings and Pivots. and from that perspective I'll be looking to buy specially in light of fundamentals that US economy is showing signs of getting out of steam
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,253
  • May 15, 2017 10:57am May 15, 2017 10:57am
Thanks

that was fun ! and educational
  • #9,254
  • May 15, 2017 11:04am May 15, 2017 11:04am
Would love to see PA reach WP and possibly build another batch north
Love buying AUD costs me nothing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30.png Size: 37 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,255
  • May 15, 2017 11:08am May 15, 2017 11:08am
Quoting 1PipDaddy
Thanks that was fun ! and educational
Its rather depressing when you buy a trading book and all they talk about is MA's and honestly winning in this game requires lot more then following any MA's

What I am sharing here only handful understand the significance and those who do post consistent gains
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,256
  • May 15, 2017 11:11am May 15, 2017 11:11am
This is still going down love to see a break of 1.0100 testing lower pivots
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADH4.png Size: 41 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,257
  • May 15, 2017 11:15am May 15, 2017 11:15am
Quoting fantasma
{quote} Trend is down. To determine the trend I use a Keltner Chanel with the LBR settings (20 EMA, 20 ATR, 2.5 Multiplier) on the daily timeframe. http://www.lbrgroup.com/images/Linda...ngManual-1.pdf As you can see had I nice pullback on the 20 EMA today. But I missed it . . . {image}
If you gonna trade pivots you must unbrainwash yourself from moving averages or simply focus getting better at what you are doing but together MA's and Pivots don't work.
It took me 4years to get rid of all MA's from my charts and mind.I had one of those hit in the head Ahh moment and never looked back.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,258
  • May 15, 2017 11:15am May 15, 2017 11:15am
Technically the monthly weekly and daily trend is down.
However being oversold there is a possibility of technical correction.
Further there is more of a chance to complete a batman harmonic pattern or hit the daily trend line around 0.7280 which is weekly pivot of 100.

Fundamentally AUD has fallen to a 4 month low following disappointing retail sales. Further RBN reinforced expectations of neutral interest rates for a foreseeable future. . Retail sales took a hit recently from a month earlier. and the retail sales in the first quarter increased by just 0.1 percent, below the 0.5 percent growth expected by economists.
  • #9,259
  • May 15, 2017 11:22am May 15, 2017 11:22am
Quoting shaan
Technically the monthly weekly and daily trend is down. However being oversold there is a possibility of technical correction. Further there is more of a chance to complete a batman harmonic pattern or hit the daily trend line around 0.7280 which is weekly pivot of 100. Fundamentally AUD has fallen to a 4 month low following disappointing retail sales. Further RBN reinforced expectations of neutral interest rates for a foreseeable future. . Retail sales took a hit recently from a month earlier. and the retail sales in the first quarter increased...
That's fundies from AUD however USD is not on fire either.AUD gets pretty much always carry over support "park your money and collect interest from banks" hence I am bull bias.
Not even talking about Trump with each day another fiasco unfolding and making markets jittery and when that happens funds rush to Yen AUD and NZD
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #9,260
  • May 15, 2017 11:28am May 15, 2017 11:28am
EG can't break above 61R
Just saying..... 8512 might push to 78R which is near 8530
I love low ADR pairs like EG because even if you are wrong does not bite you.Kind of pair you can drop 10 positions and go do errands without worry.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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