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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,201
  • Edited May 13, 2017 5:26am May 12, 2017 3:16pm | Edited May 13, 2017 5:26am
No 965 for me so I will be waiting to (as PTL says) lay down my cheese.

As usual, I need a drink.
Have a good weekend boys and girls.
  • #151,202
  • May 12, 2017 3:17pm May 12, 2017 3:17pm
Quoting Pharm0r
It was a joke
(Obv)
  • #151,203
  • May 12, 2017 3:19pm May 12, 2017 3:19pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} If thats the case, I'll withdraw as you will be a clueless gambler and wont get anything neither in the trade or the conversation... We have a very light week next week. I'll invite you to take the lead in the thread for the Euro as @goosebone did a couple of weeks ago...I think you, me and everybody else will benefit from the journey. sisse
You give goosebone FED and me.....unemployment claims?

Looks like a choppy week ahead, but a good chance for EURO to print more good numbers, euro should act accordingly.

However; 3 drive is complete, only extension left, upside limited. So- next week's forecast is chop with little upside, any extension from the current highs should be faded. No ambiguity. My call- fade the highs.

YEN* is the better trade next week, as Donald Trump will likely be looking to add risk (for the market take away risk), he still hasn't replied to NK's new missile test and he's in hot water with the FBI. With GBP retail sales and CPI, there's potential for a nuclear GJ trade if Trump times his tweet correctly
  • #151,204
  • May 12, 2017 3:23pm May 12, 2017 3:23pm
Still need that gap to close. I'm with you on the short side. (also in from 1.10+)
  • #151,205
  • May 12, 2017 3:28pm May 12, 2017 3:28pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You give goosebone FED and me.....unemployment claims? ..., .y
cocky? ...hmm, ok lets see how it goes...

Quote
The difference here, no ambiguity. My call- fade the highs...

You are confusing forcing you to think by yourself with just blindly follow calls, .. you are in FF mode, so I better let you there as I have the feeling you will regret later ...

We'll see how it goes next week. I'll be tracking your comments ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,206
  • May 12, 2017 3:31pm May 12, 2017 3:31pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} You give goosebone FED and me.....unemployment claims? Looks like a choppy week ahead, but a good chance for EURO to print more good numbers, euro should act accordingly. However; 3 drive is complete, only extension left, upside limited. So- next week's forecast is chop with little upside, any extension from the current highs should be faded. No ambiguity. My call- fade the highs. YEN* is the better trade next week, as Donald Trump will likely be looking to add risk (for the market take away risk), he still hasn't replied to NK's...
Ahem...FED, NFP, Round 2.

But I'm sure we all look forward to your minute by minute calls leading up to the Italian Trade Balance Report. Choose that poison baby!!

good luck.
  • #151,207
  • May 12, 2017 3:34pm May 12, 2017 3:34pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} cocky? ...hmm, ok lets see how it goes... {quote} You are confusing forcing you to think by yourself with just blindly follow calls, .. you are in FF mode, so I better let you there as I have the feeling you will regret later ... We'll see how it goes next week. I'll be tracking your comments ... sisse
Then I'll rephrase, my poison is to look for shorts; but it seems most of the thread think you and I are in the same boat....so here's to us!

Quoting goosebone
{quote} Ahem...FED, NFP, Round 2. But I'm sure we all look forward to your minute by minute calls leading up to the Italian Trade Balance Report. Choose that poison baby!! good luck.
Better you than me. Perhaps I will PM you my analysis and you can make it funny then post it
  • #151,208
  • May 12, 2017 3:46pm May 12, 2017 3:46pm
"FF mode" is the term of the week btw. I love it.
  • #151,209
  • May 12, 2017 4:36pm May 12, 2017 4:36pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Are you sure? ...you see whatever you want to see ...You are neither dumb or lazy so I think frustration maybe triggering those comments. Let me chewed down for the 1 million time what we are talking about for those newcomers lurking at the bottom. It may trigger some more useful comments for our friend @Pharm0r ==>Markets trade expectations first, facts later. The money is trading with the direction of expected value, whatever the instrument or market. ==> Define your direction first. START LOOKING FOR POSITIONS to (re)enter/add the market...
Is this choose your poisson thing only available to those traders with the sideways funny-looking diamond logos next to their names or can anyone participate in making a call and a forecast?
  • #151,210
  • May 13, 2017 12:13am May 13, 2017 12:13am
Lately, I seem to be doing nothing but poison. My trades have flopped.

I can't get in synch w market. I know the Outlooks
but see EU going higher to .108x. However, I have lost on my trades lately. I wish I understood the Bunds, monetary policy and politics driving this.

What I do know is if Ecb raises rates that will be a more knee jerk reaction than QE and FED rate hikes. Right now we are trading Facts.

Ive been silent here for a while. Letting others like
goosebone contribute better info. Made some big mistakes and common Demons took over. I am
still a horrible trader and still hoping to learn. I did the best in iterations w sisse than I ever had on my
own.

I went Long at .085x flip zone and am trailing it. Looking for .108x and then fading it. Just my plan. No longer looking for pairty or .0200. I am looking for .03xx to hold for LT floor.

GL to you all....
  • #151,211
  • May 13, 2017 4:17am May 13, 2017 4:17am
eu may be setting up a dive,, its not a done deal. it still may have more chop over the next few weeks/days. it has that natural 1.1115 attraction, it did close above 1.0895. it has the valid 1.1316 target. to avoid some of this chop over the next few weeks/days/hours. one could sit aside and wait for last weeks low to be taken out/or the election high mark. either way, when, and if either happen. the closing level of this week 1.0930 area is probably not finished. with either a high or low break 1.0930 may be the launch trigger sometime after a high or low break. i see merit in either direction. a short probably closer to the high has probably more potential/or a long near last weeks low probably more potential. using the 1/4 close than the following month being above is less a bearish sign for eu. the week did close below last week, but it remained above 0895.. that close being above last months 0895, to me isn't bearish atm. its only 1/2 way through the month. the atm level is 0930 area. its not a big deal to see what direction it breaks. because the odds are better favored to end up right back at the 0930 area after. it takes much spent energy to break it down (your account). it will chop, that chop can be an eternity with a see/saw motion..

popcorn out till near that high or low is my plan. just observing and sometimes playing the little setups with smaller stops (tp and sl). it will break up or down, we will have heroes or not heroes. its just battles in a war. i do think usd will go to 101.52 (pushing eu down) and eu to 1.1115 or 1.1316. i just dont know what one happens first.

Fed wise its still a dog chasing it's tail. Lower oil prices dull u.s. inflation forecast. a U.S. rate rise will pressure oil inflation down. oil is in every fiber of the economy. so its a big inflation/deflation catalyst. my last look at the gas pump here, gasoline at -2$. its the middle of may. just a few weeks b4 u.s. driving season (school vacation or school holiday for Europeans). fuel prices usually rise here.. recently they have softened. that's not a good (canary in the coalmine) signal for rising inflation. the Fed will notice.


meanwhile treasure investigators that focus on money laundering, have turned over some documents to senate investigation. these documents are probably very important. w/o these money laundering records/documents the senate "would not be able to prove collusion between the trump campaign and Russians."

speculating here some.. if it cant be proved w/o those documents, what does it mean if you actually have the records/documents? your call
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,212
  • May 13, 2017 4:54am May 13, 2017 4:54am
[quote=gatorinla;9862431] the atm level is 0930 area. its not a big deal to see what direction it breaks. because the odds are better favored to end up right back at the 0930 area after. it takes much spent energy to break it down (your account). it will chop, that chop can be an eternity with a see/saw motion.. popcorn out till near that high or low is my plan. just observing and sometimes playing the little setups with smaller stops (tp and sl). it will break up or down, we will have heroes or not heroes. its just battles in a war.

I agree .930 will be the middle, maybe a short to .061 before ECB but possibly higher first so looking at other pairs for next week. Expect to be trading towards .0930 from either direction at some point though.
  • #151,213
  • May 13, 2017 4:59pm May 13, 2017 4:59pm
There has been a lot of information on this thread this week. Some posts I have read and re-read over and over again as I feel theres so much value in them. I like the way Sisse teaches, he gives you the answers but not in a straightforward way, you have to put the work in to get the value out.

I've been a relatively silent lurker in the thread for a long time and have enjoyed the iterations and conversations that have taken place. At the same time I've learnt so much. Anyway I would like to try and organise my current thoughts so what better place than here for criticism and comment. I'm ignoring politics for the moment and concentrating on monetary policy.

And apologies, I'm not trying to steal your thunder PharmOr as I know you're in the driving this week.

EURUSD Short term (to June ECB/FED)

USD ++

  1. Hike pretty much confirmed for June and pretty much priced in

EUR ++

  1. Expectation ECB talk about the end of QE although not guaranteed
  2. Options are [1] Confirm end of QE for future date [2] Change wording in statement [3] No mention of QE

Result Short term: Neutral

Attached Image



EURUSD Medium term

USD +++

  1. Assuming a June hike
  2. 3 or 4 hikes for 2017 still on the table
  3. Potential balance sheet reduction

EUR +

  1. Knee-jerk reaction to confirmation of end of QE
  2. Actual won't happen until 2018
  3. Unlikely to hike interest rates


Result Medium term: Sell

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2017-05-13 at 22.56.19.png Size: 33 KB
  • #151,214
  • May 13, 2017 7:09pm May 13, 2017 7:09pm
Worth reading G7 statement: http://www.mof.go.jp/english/interna.../g7_170513.htm
The first paragraph of this statement has retained my attention:
"1- Global recovery is gaining momentum, yet growth remains moderate and GDP is still below potential in many countries, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. At the same time, longer-term potential growth rates also remain subdued. Against this backdrop, we reiterate our commitment to international economic and financial cooperation and we remain determined to use all policy tools - monetary, fiscal and structural - individually and collectively to achieve our goal of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. Monetary policy should continue to support economic activity and ensure price stability, consistently with central banks’ mandate. We concur that fiscal policy should be used flexibly to strengthen growth and job creation, while also enhancing inclusiveness and ensuring debt as a share of GDP is on a sustainable path. In doing so, we agree on the importance of improving the quality of public finance, including by prioritising high quality investment. We remain committed to advancing structural reforms to boost, productivity and potential output and we support reforms that promote inclusiveness. We are determined to enhance the implementation of structural reforms, and we will ensure these are appropriately coordinated with macroeconomic policies. We reaffirm our existing G7 exchange rate commitments to market determined exchange rates and to consult closely in regard to actions in foreign exchange markets. We reaffirm that our fiscal and monetary policies have been and will remain oriented towards meeting our respective domestic objectives using domestic instruments and we will not target exchange rates for competitive purposes. We underscore the importance of all countries refraining from competitive devaluation. We reiterate that excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will carefully calibrate and clearly communicate our macroeconomic and structural policy actions to support domestic growth, reduce policy uncertainty, minimize negative spillovers and promote transparency. We will strive to reduce excessive global imbalances and in a way that supports global growth. We are working to strengthen the contribution of trade to our economies.
  • #151,215
  • May 14, 2017 12:06am May 14, 2017 12:06am
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-picture-ray-dalio
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,216
  • May 14, 2017 12:09am May 14, 2017 12:09am
Quoting gatorinla
meanwhile treasure investigators that focus on money laundering, have turned over some documents to senate investigation. these documents are probably very important. w/o these money laundering records/documents the senate "would not be able to prove collusion between the trump campaign and Russians." speculating here some.. if it cant be proved w/o those documents, what does it mean if you actually have the records/documents? your call
anyone hearing anything about a fisa or sealed warrants issued, Grand jury? or something crazy like the top 2 in succession to the president may be removed by s court? leaving #4 to be president? tin hat i agree. but these people were right long b4 it was in the news last summer.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,217
  • May 14, 2017 12:31am May 14, 2017 12:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} anyone hearing anything about a fisa or sealed warrants issued, Grand jury? or something crazy like the top 2 in succession to the president may be removed by s court? leaving #4 to be president? tin hat i agree. but these people were right long b4 it was in the news last summer.
off to bed.. i dont know if this above is true. source has been right in the past. these above are just so far above my understanding of law. i dont think its ever happened to have precedent. i dont understand why it could remove Ryan. even with the past having a good track record. this is well above my 3 years of Civics knowledge. even during Watergate, the question of what if a president, a vice president and a speaker of the house was removed never entered my thoughts. my understanding is 20 to 40 indictments pending. with some type of legal trigger pending to issue. unclear if it requires impeachment b4.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,218
  • May 14, 2017 12:44am May 14, 2017 12:44am
Quoting gatorinla
my understanding is 20 to 40 indictments pending. with some type of legal trigger pending to issue. unclear if it requires impeachment b4.
whatchu talkin bout, Willis?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,219
  • May 14, 2017 1:03am May 14, 2017 1:03am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} off to bed.. i dont know if this above is true. source has been right in the past. these above are just so far above my understanding of law. i dont think its ever happened to have precedent. i dont understand why it could remove Ryan. even with the past having a good track record. this is well above my 3 years of Civics knowledge. even during Watergate, the question of what if a president, a vice president and a speaker of the house was removed never entered my thoughts. my understanding is 20 to 40 indictments pending. with some type of...

seeing various sources of chatter myself tonight about it although yet to be determined what is fact...... here is a summary of situation

https://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/has...esident-trump/
  • #151,220
  • May 14, 2017 6:43am May 14, 2017 6:43am
Quoting suntan
Result Short term: Neutral
Result Medium term: Sell
This is what I don't understand
So how is one supposed to trade this? Should we trade the st or mt?

Sisse's post here:
Quoting sisse
{quote} Are you sure?.......
suggests the E/U is going in this direction, the posts after that he suggests the opposite direction.

And I don't understand how can the FED hikes be all already priced in, the FED is expected to hike 3 times this year, they already hiked once and lets assume the 2nd hike is priced in but what about the 3rd hike? is that priced in already? and so the Dollar isn't going to get stronger as a result of the 3rd hike?

My thinking which makes sense to me is E/U should go up from here on because the Feds hike is priced in, it won't make E/U go down and there is new expectation the ECB are going to end QE and ending QE is most likely followed by raising rates which means E/U going up.

What I don't understand is the 3rd FED hike which is likely expected for September or December, how is that priced in? shouldn't it cause the E/U to go down?
how does one trade the 3rd hike?
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