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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,181
  • May 12, 2017 1:13pm May 12, 2017 1:13pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Over a year and you've never answered
I'm quite sure he is looking for short. Geez!
PVSRA
  • #151,182
  • May 12, 2017 1:15pm May 12, 2017 1:15pm
If you read carefully and work hard, "Choose your poison time" is nearly aways a no brainer in this thread.
If you come here with your flip-flops, ...
  • #151,183
  • May 12, 2017 1:18pm May 12, 2017 1:18pm
Quoting sisse
As expected week ended after the opening range ... More importantly and key highlight of the day/week, real money spotted running to cover in Treasuries and Bund. We have a couple of them in the last years already, all ended up in the same. Bonds breaking correlation and positioning in quiet times, something big is cooking in the background. 'Forewarned is forearmed'. On the FX board, Euro triggering the traditional ST 'choose your poison time' for the close. Not much to see or do here but same levels, same trades, same all.... sisse {quote} Try...
Expectations for June ECB are for beginning of end to QE or at least much firmer talk about both that and rate liftoff.
Expectations for FED are for June hike and maybe a more hawkish plot for rest of the year.
ECB is first on the calendar but that isn't whats important (excepting how, as we get closer, a zig zag play could be mapped out).
What is more important than the calendar is the sort of 'overlap' of expectations in terms of how they are pricing or priced in. Looks like a Venn diagram in my head but I don't think I could draw it. The point is as we move into the peak pricing of ECB expectations (iow: to be priced in fully ahead of us on the timeline) we are simultaneously moving out of peak pricing of June FED hike expectations (iow: mostly priced in behind us already on that timeline). The only reason I am still leaning towards a lower EU for June (1.061x max for now) is the degree of certainty about hikes vs the degree of uncertainty re: ECB hawkishness in the June meeting.

You asked me to make it clearer but I may have done the opposite.
  • #151,184
  • Edited 1:38pm May 12, 2017 1:27pm | Edited 1:38pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Over a year and you've never answered
Are you sure? ...you see whatever you want to see ...You are neither dumb or lazy so I think frustration maybe triggering those comments.

Let me chewed down for the 1 million time what we are talking about for those newcomers lurking at the bottom. It may trigger some more useful comments for our friend @Pharm0r

==>Markets trade expectations first, facts later. The money is trading with the direction of expected value, whatever the instrument or market.

==> Define your direction first. If you are swinging FA will move you in a whole different level in the business as you will be able to achieve more consistent results with better position and timing management.

==> When you have your outlook set in a larger view (macro direction / outlooks or whatever you want to call it) you can define your maps for trading. In a quick cheatsheet (check the cheatsheet chart that has been posted no less than 100 times)

  1. If your outlook is Buy/Sell, trade from the inside to the outside with cheap tickets at the extreme and momentum on the break of the other side.
  2. If your outlook is Neutral, trade to the inside avoiding taking positions in the middle. Cheap tickets fading the extremes,

==> Doesn't matter how you pull the trigger. If you are in the right side, you will get a winner with more or less risk but a winner at the end.

==> Job for a trader is minimise risk first, second and third and only then maximise gains.

==> Smart money (and one should aim for that) position in calm water, newbies and soft money on the rush of the move already flying away....

==> If you are sharp enough with your price TA skills you will have an advantage over most of any other indicator trading for swinging. Some basic ideas we have discussed over the year: Imminent breaks, momentum play, simple price based entries, simple price fade entries and 'choose your poison time'

 

  1. 'Choose your poising time' is just an expression to give the heads up that is a good time to START LOOKING FOR POSITIONS to (re)enter/add the market (if you are already holding) in CALM Waters. There is nearly 65 examples live in the thread if you want to follow in detail from which over 90% has been almost flawless point for positioning. Does it mean to the right side?, NO ...its your poison not mine or his. It's about TIMING ...
  2. So if your trigger is a triple modified tofu/corfu and etc or simply tossing a coin so be it ...just pull the trigger however you see fit managing risk accordingly.

So now to @Pharm0r:

MT outlook sell.
ST outlook neutral.
@ the top of the range
should I chewed down even further ? or you are aiming to start a classical FF Friday conversation in which on top of everything I am posting for free here I need to send you a live memo with my exact positions and every time I place an order ... I don't think so, i know you are not one of the A$$$% around here so lets better raise the conversation to somewhere more useful.


sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,185
  • May 12, 2017 1:31pm May 12, 2017 1:31pm
I think it should be clear what the poison is, but the question is why? what has changed in the last week?
  • #151,186
  • May 12, 2017 1:36pm May 12, 2017 1:36pm
Quoting sisse
... From your points: -> What is the expectation for ECB according to you? -> What is the expectation for FED according to you? -> Which come first in the calendar? ...we'll continue upon your answers.... sisse
-> What is the expectation for ECB according to you? June 8, we have ECB Meeting as well as UK Election day. The expectation is strong single or may be a decision to reduce or cut QE and start hiking based on strong economic data and inflation meeting the 2% target.
I don't know how much the UK election will affect the ECB decision (i.e., postpone).
-> What is the expectation for FED according to you? June 14-15, we have triple major events: FOMC (June 14), BOE and BOJ (June 15). As you already well explained, in terms of FA, the expectation is hiking for FOMC. The only pending component is Trump risk which might be in play and mix all cards. This risk might hold the normalization process (hiking) to September.
  • #151,187
  • May 12, 2017 1:56pm May 12, 2017 1:56pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} -> What is the expectation for ECB according to you? June 8, we have ECB Meeting as well as UK Election day.
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Expectations for June ECB are for beginning of end to QE...
Lets simplify this for the sake of the argument:

Simple expectations:

==> ECB market expectations is to announce the end of QE.
==> FED market expectations is for a rate hike.

Sure ECB comes first that FED but forget about the calendar for 1m

==> FED hikes will be a hike. The FACT will be settle the day is announced. The expectations of normalisation have been traded already for over quite some time ; while
==>ECB announcing (if they announce and not just hint) end of QE. The FACT will be for Jan 2018 and beyond. The expectations of that will JUST GET trigger for the first time since ECB QE started !!!!

Can you see the big difference. One is a fact that is part of the normalization process with barely any new expectations in DOLLAR while the other is to OPEN A WHOLE new CHAPTER in the Euro*.

==> Now sure ECB comes before FED. As you can see if both pans out for example. The flow knee jerk reaction of ECB would be strong a lot more strong than another FED hike that is pretty much on everybody's book.

So with that in mind, what do you think will weight more in the ST (after any knee jerk reaction on air on the announcement) the hike or end of QE?
What about for the mid term, what would prime?

If both pan out in expectations (or flop for that matter) how do you think the volatility in the ST and MT legs would be sharp and short-lived, bumpy and long-lived. wide, or we will go to sleep in comatose moves for months?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,188
  • May 12, 2017 1:58pm May 12, 2017 1:58pm
see fit managing risk accordingly. So now to @Pharm0r: MT outlook sell. ST outlook neutral. @ the top of the range should I chewed down even further ? or you are aiming to start a classical FF Friday conversation in which on top of everything I am posting for free here I need to send you a live memo with my exact positions and every time I place an order ... I don't think so, i know you are not one of the A$$$% around here so lets better raise the conversation to somewhere more useful. sisse[/quote]
sissie, i am sure that comment was meant as a weekend joke / tease. Dont know why you got so worked up for. You know better the kind of redpect you have here and nobody wants to cross that boundry and walk in your personal space. Chill yaw, TGI friday
Inserted Video
  • #151,189
  • May 12, 2017 2:15pm May 12, 2017 2:15pm
Quoting Sisse" So with that in mind, what do you think will weight more in the ST (after any knee jerk reaction on air on the announcement) the hike or end of QE?
What about for the mid term, what would prime?
In the ST, End of QE will win the battle, in particular if you consider Trump risk. EUR* is the new haven.

If both pan out in expectations (or flop for that matter) how do you think the volatility in the ST and MT legs would be sharp and short-lived, bumpy and long-lived. wide, or we will go to sleep in comatose moves for months?
- If both are inline with expectations, we will have a zigzag to the upside in ST and MT because January 2019 is the fact date for ECB. In this case the ST outlook should be Soft Sell and the MT Neutral (to be confirmed after ECB and FOMC meeting).
The range will be deep to the upside to tend to normalization value (i.e., pre-2008).
  • #151,190
  • May 12, 2017 2:29pm May 12, 2017 2:29pm
I expect the ECB after kneejerk will carry the weight in the short and midterm. If neither flop, its likely that both facts push EU in the same direction towards the top of the ranges.
Don't want to call reactions for all outcomes this far out of course. But I'm seeing it like sell the rumor/ buy the fact in FED. And buy softly the rumor/ buy hard the fact on ECB.
  • #151,191
  • May 12, 2017 2:36pm May 12, 2017 2:36pm
Quoting Fadhl
Quoting Sisse" So with that in mind, what do you think will weight more in the ST (after any knee jerk reaction on air on the announcement) the hike or end of QE? What about for the mid term, what would prime? In the ST, End of QE will win the battle, in particular if you consider Trump risk. EUR* is the new haven. If both pan out in expectations (or flop for that matter) how do you think the volatility in the ST and MT legs would be sharp and short-lived, bumpy and long-lived. wide, or we will go to sleep in comatose moves for months? - If both...
==> That sounds a lot better, try to keep just the 2 monetary policy factors isolated from the rest (these are the real hardcore movers and shakers in FX markets) so you can first visualise 'forest for trees' and then start digging on how each of the other factors (risk, macroeconomic numbers) affect the ebb and flow in between. Obviously you wont be able to have all of them but aiming to the core ones will set you miles away from the rest ...

In a nutshell from a strictly monetary policy of view (no risk or other macro factors), what is in play is setting a LT floor while ending the MT downtrend. ST, France election (clearing scheduled risk) unlocked the top (to 1.128x) that was closed since last Nov and strengthen the floor that was naked until March....

==> I would highly recommend you to avoid digging too much in the pure political factors for trading just yet as they are extremely hard to forecast, time and understand (some of them are just random) for trading.

==> With experience you may start grasping how major fck ups starts and how selfish or misleading political decisions can make entire countries shoot themselves in the foot from both economic and market perspective and still have lots of unaware loud cheerleaders not even smelling what is really going to be the impact ...but thats for another topic ....for trading, my 2 cents, stay sidelined from those and spend more time on the real macro factor first as they will be more than enough if you are relatively new in swing trading....

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,192
  • May 12, 2017 2:43pm May 12, 2017 2:43pm
Nope- no frustrations here pal, I'm just poking fun at you to see if you'd answer....got to admit, I was just seeing if you'd say "I'm short".

I'm short 1.1010 and 1.0939
  • #151,193
  • May 12, 2017 2:45pm May 12, 2017 2:45pm
Quoting sisse
Markets trade expectations first, facts later. The money is trading with the direction of expected value, whatever the instrument or market.
If you're lucky: there does not have to be any consensus as to what expectations are. If you see markets moving sideways, that's why. (Note US equities in a tight range since about a few weeks after the DJT inauguration, ie since mid-Feb.) I think hft exacerbates range-bound trading - if most of the volume is super st trades that only take a tick or two of profit, it's hard for any momentum to build into a trending move.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,194
  • May 12, 2017 2:57pm May 12, 2017 2:57pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Nope- no frustrations here pal, I'm just poking fun at you to see if you'd answer....got to admit, I was just seeing if you'd say "I'm short". I'm short 1.1010 and 1.0939
What if I take the other side just for the sake of the argument and two give you my final two cents ....

sisse

Quoting The Fool
{quote}If you're lucky: there does not have to be any consensus as to what expectations are. If you see markets moving sideways, that's why. (Note US equities in a tight range since about a few weeks after the DJT inauguration, ie since mid-Feb.) I think hft exacerbates range-bound trading - if most of the volume is super st trades that only take a tick or two of profit, it's hard for any momentum to build into a trending move.
Well yes mate. I agree with you that we are in complete and irritating nothingness in US Equities for too long already but I think the guys above were referring to FX and specifically to Dollar and Euro* that are set to have a hell of a ride in the upcoming weeks...

On US equities expectations is like we discussed yesterday. Variables are all clear. Is whoever blinks first. Macro factors triggering a healthy pullback for a healthy uptrend continuation or DT tax cuts and etc / blowing the world and world markets or himself politically in a Tweet too far ...What you do? ...sit and wait...and follow the herd until somebody decide to leave the pack...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,195
  • May 12, 2017 2:58pm May 12, 2017 2:58pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} What if I take the other side just for the sake of the argument and two give you my final two cents .... sisse {quote} ... sisse
My stop loss is 500 pips, is yours?

Inserted Video
  • #151,196
  • May 12, 2017 3:06pm May 12, 2017 3:06pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} My stop loss is 500 pips, is yours?
If thats the case, I'll withdraw as you will be a clueless gambler and wont get anything neither in the trade or the conversation...

We have a very light week next week. I'll invite you to take the lead in the thread for the Euro as @goosebone did a couple of weeks ago...I think you, me and everybody else will benefit from the journey.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,197
  • May 12, 2017 3:08pm May 12, 2017 3:08pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} My stop loss is 500 pips, is yours? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmcVODW1p0I
Thats some sick r:r dude. All you need is the total collapse of the common currency and you are sitting on a 20 bag
  • #151,198
  • May 12, 2017 3:10pm May 12, 2017 3:10pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} My stop loss is 500 pips, is yours? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmcVODW1p0I
Not interfering between you and Sisse, but if ECB meet the expectation, the movement to the upside will hit your SL. The pre-2008 crisis EU value was around 1.2-1.3. GL!
  • #151,199
  • May 12, 2017 3:12pm May 12, 2017 3:12pm
It was a joke
  • #151,200
  • May 12, 2017 3:15pm May 12, 2017 3:15pm
Quoting Pharm0r
It was a joke
I know, but there where EU might go in MT. Good weekend Everyone!
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