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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,161
  • May 11, 2017 2:23pm May 11, 2017 2:23pm
....and we are rolling with irrelevant closes in Euro but a bit more telling in Sterling...

Expecting very little till inflation numbers from the US...till then...

sisse

Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I don't think so! His point is that expectation for FED hiking is a done deal (90%). There is no other signs (i.e., CBs coordination) for another scenario or surprise. It happened in the recent past after Brexit voting that CBs made a surprise and managed to soften the brexit outcome.
Yes.

==> I think what you were implying before is TA wise the current highs are not locked. They aren't yet but not necessarily because of monetary policy, at least not in the current circumstances.

==> Despite FED monetary policy, If you are tracking the FX board from the DX side you can see we cleared Euro* via risk and french election, today we cleared Sterling* via BOE, from the majors only Yen* is still pulling the basket back. All the other pull factors come from Dollar inherit reasons.

==> If you are sharp enough and assuming we already have all the answer for June in monetary policy in ECB, BOE, BOJ and FED, the only wild card is risk. If we trigger ST term risk Yen* will join the party in the push factors while commodity currency AUD* & CAD* will provide the soft pulls via commodities (with Gold via risk and Oil as a completely uncorrelated variable from this perspective).

Basically in the previous 3 paragraphs you have the whole current FX board ready to trade from a very advanced view.

I think you and a few others are ready to stop the chewed down conversation and raise the level of discussion ... Recommend you to read and re read and read again with the respective charting workspace, there is a lot of information there...

I hope it helps.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,162
  • May 11, 2017 4:16pm May 11, 2017 4:16pm
Indeed, it's not just helping, it opens the eyes on other angles and how to translate the context on market decisions/behavior. Thanks for the advice which I try to do consistently.
  • #151,163
  • May 12, 2017 1:26am May 12, 2017 1:26am
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If expectation of a rate hike is 90% in the US do we a scenario similar to the above?
We trade expectations not facts and if the expectation is already 90%+ is there much room for dollar appreciation?
If not what is the difference this time?

Andrew
  • #151,164
  • May 12, 2017 2:01am May 12, 2017 2:01am
Quoting suntan
{image} If expectation of a rate hike is 90% in the US do we a scenario similar to the above? We trade expectations not facts and if the expectation is already 90%+ is there much room for dollar appreciation? If not what is the difference this time? Andrew
I think we should not overthink it, but trade expectations at least until they are confirmed. We`ve got our green light, why stop here. Also, TA is screaming for USD to get stronger.
  • #151,165
  • May 12, 2017 4:10am May 12, 2017 4:10am
Quoting goosebone
One look at inflation expectations in the US. {image} {image}
Comparison to February in the quote.
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  • #151,166
  • May 12, 2017 5:09am May 12, 2017 5:09am
Quoting realfan
{quote} I think we should not overthink it, but trade expectations at least until they are confirmed. We`ve got our green light, why stop here. Also, TA is screaming for USD to get stronger.
Is it though? I'm not too sure.

I think the markets are starting to align against the dollar.
  • #151,167
  • Edited 5:46am May 12, 2017 5:36am | Edited 5:46am
Inflation numbers low. Watching for pull back into 1.09 handle. Maybe 1.0965 is wishful thinking.
Also took a small UJ short here. 113.77 sl@ 114.55 now dropped to 114.1
  • #151,168
  • May 12, 2017 5:43am May 12, 2017 5:43am
Quoting goosebone
Inflation numbers low. Watching for pull back into 1.09 handle. Maybe wishful thinking.
You'll get the pullback and some......

Are you thinking of shorting from here?
  • #151,169
  • May 12, 2017 5:53am May 12, 2017 5:53am
Quoting suntan
{quote} You'll get the pullback and some...... Are you thinking of shorting from here?
Up by 1.10 was the right time and place. I was late (early depending on how you look at things) and put a tiny short on at 940 stop at 1045. Took most of that off around 860 so no risk.
I'd like to add to it at 965. Same set up, tiny short, most of it will come off at 880 if possible.
I'm treading lightly with a slow entry that won't hurt much if wrong.
  • #151,170
  • May 12, 2017 5:57am May 12, 2017 5:57am
Inline numbers in the US, marginally softer but irrelevant in context on inflation, nothing to see, opening range will kill the week ...

There is unconfirmed noise from the usual suspect thats is about to announce something warmongering for the weekend to prolly put the press and the unaware to talk about something else to cover his FBI fck up this week...

On the real markets and economic front there is not much in play for today....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,171
  • May 12, 2017 6:01am May 12, 2017 6:01am
Possible head and shoulders forming on eurusd
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #151,172
  • May 12, 2017 6:13am May 12, 2017 6:13am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Up by 1.10 was the right time and place. I was late (early depending on how you look at things) and put a tiny short on at 940 stop at 1045. Took most of that off around 860 so no risk. I'd like to add to it at 965. Same set up, tiny short, most of it will come off at 880 if possible. I'm treading lightly with a slow entry that won't hurt much if wrong.
Yeah makes sense.

I'm struggling with trading expectation and fact - are we trading on an expectation of a June hike or has that ended now as its pretty much priced in?
  • #151,173
  • May 12, 2017 6:44am May 12, 2017 6:44am
Quoting suntan
{quote} Yeah makes sense. I'm struggling with trading expectation and fact - are we trading on an expectation of a June hike or has that ended now as its pretty much priced in?
Look the recent France election where traders trading the expectation and took profit on the fact did very well. When TA and FA line up with expectation there is trading opportunities. I will possible look short eurusd from London open monday if DT not is doing any crazy things during the weekend to cover up for the FBI blow up ( Which I absolutely think he can do )
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #151,174
  • May 12, 2017 6:56am May 12, 2017 6:56am
Quoting suntan
{quote} Yeah makes sense. I'm struggling with trading expectation and fact - are we trading on an expectation of a June hike or has that ended now as its pretty much priced in?
I think there is a good chance FED expectations point to in and around 1.061x for the meeting. ECB expectations, however, are pointing in the other direction and may be what provides the current updraft that holds us above 730 and even 820. ECB comes first on the calendar. Hopefully it will be clearer to me as we get closer but that's the way I'm looking at it right now.
Rereading over and over sisse's last reply to Fahdl to try and see if I've got the right perspective on it.
  • #151,175
  • May 12, 2017 10:29am May 12, 2017 10:29am
As expected week ended after the opening range ...

More importantly and key highlight of the day/week, real money spotted running to cover in Treasuries and Bund. We have a couple of them in the last years already, all ended up in the same. Bonds breaking correlation and positioning in quiet times, something big is cooking in the background. 'Forewarned is forearmed'.

On the FX board, Euro triggering the traditional ST 'choose your poison time' for the close. Not much to see or do here but same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse

Quoting goosebone
{quote} I think there is a good chance FED expectations point to in and around 1.061x for the meeting. ECB expectations, however, are pointing in the other direction and may be what provides the current updraft that holds us above 730 and even 820. ECB comes first on the calendar. Hopefully it will be clearer to me as we get closer but that's the way I'm looking at it right now. Rereading over and over sisse's last reply to Fahdl to try and see if I've got the right perspective on it.
Try to organize your process in a more digestible and consistent approach. From your points:

-> What is the expectation for ECB according to you?
-> What is the expectation for FED according to you?
-> Which come first in the calendar?

...we'll continue upon your answers....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,176
  • May 12, 2017 10:35am May 12, 2017 10:35am
Quoting sisse
Euro triggering the traditional ST 'choose your poison time' for the close. .... sisse
What's yours?
  • #151,177
  • May 12, 2017 10:38am May 12, 2017 10:38am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} What's yours?
Over a year here and you still ask that question? what do you think?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,178
  • May 12, 2017 10:54am May 12, 2017 10:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Over a year here and you still ask that question? what do you think? sisse
Over a year and you've never answered
  • #151,179
  • May 12, 2017 10:57am May 12, 2017 10:57am
Quoting suntan
{image} If expectation of a rate hike is 90% in the US do we a scenario similar to the above? We trade expectations not facts and if the expectation is already 90%+ is there much room for dollar appreciation? If not what is the difference this time? Andrew
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 41 KB


this
  • #151,180
  • May 12, 2017 11:05am May 12, 2017 11:05am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} What's yours?
Hahahaha nice one. Wouldnt we ALLLLLL want to know. But we'll get to know with "and i"ll take that in euro. Clearing first targets"...
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