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  • #151,141
  • May 11, 2017 10:13am May 11, 2017 10:13am
Quoting sisse
... Expecting sharp moves in Dollar in the upcoming sessions especially after inflation numbers tomorrow. Rate hike June is a done deal... sisse
I totally agree with this statement; it's inline with my thinking. But I believe a big surprise will happen: no hike in June as a fact. The recent free declarations from Kuroda is the source of my view.
  • #151,142
  • May 11, 2017 10:42am May 11, 2017 10:42am
Makin' Keynes Great Again?
No wonder guys like George Will, everyone at the National Review, the libertarians, etc. took their ball and went home.
Not your Daddy's GOP, and gets tougher every day to keep the genuine article fiscal conservatives under that tent.
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  • #151,143
  • May 11, 2017 10:42am May 11, 2017 10:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...the more DJT appears hamstrung the more we set up for 'sell in May, go away' and a tightening Fed plays into that. Been a long time coming but we could finally see some love for US equity bears....

The FBI are currently raiding and searching the offices of a GOP fundraising/consulting firm in connection with the Russian hacking/collusion investigation. I think that there's some stuff that's about to get real, that will be very unpleasant.

https://twitter.com/jemillerwbal/sta...14093899325440
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #151,144
  • Edited 11:11am May 11, 2017 11:00am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...the more DJT appears hamstrung the more we set up for 'sell in May, go away' and a tightening Fed plays into that. Been a long time coming but we could finally see some love for US equity bears....
==> I don't think we are in normal times to 'sell in may, go away'.

While US economic and macro numbers are still very solid thanks to the strong last 3 years of consecutive and consistent recovery that is bringing its fruits, there is no such a guarantee to play the usual soft long game. Since election the US economic and foreign policy plan and the now very messy internal scandals and politics are too strong, erratic and unstable to take the easy road this time.

==> In my view we are aligning for 'grab and run' rather than 'sell in may'.

On the one hand, nobody wants to be the sucker to be the first to sell solid numbers in all fronts instead of keep squeezing the highs as much as possible, on the other hand expectations for the MT and LT (and even in some cases ST) are dramatically changing in the US.

After reading yesterday DT interview with the Economist about his economic policy plan. I don't know if to laugh as a comedy interview or start worrying and running for cover ASAP.

Markets expectations have already shifted regarding DT plan. Odds of DT finishing his 4 years has plummeted to historical low levels, while markets are starting to hedge to both sides already:

 

  1. If he delivers quickly his tax cuts and fiscal blow out, they will ride the pig and pick up the pieces and clean the layers of dirt and social cost in between later [this is not new...this is the current environment since NOV].
  2. However, markets are starting to see the unthinkable only a couple of months ago, a quick impeachment and out scenario for DT out of the way as good opportunity to buy the dip on the knee jerk reaction and ride good numbers for a extended MT/LT leg on actual macro fundamentals rather than politics. Obviously they will only pull the trigger and support if DT tumbles in scandal or/and war (with odds as high as 33% after the FBI scandal. Way too high for a major develop country)

Point being, on the contrary of what the comatose VIX is showing, markets expectations are in high alert for whatever will be the side that rock the boat. VIX is so low because everybody and even the average JOE/JANE and their moms is sitting holding US equities while markets (real money) wont just leave the room with some certainty or confirmation that the US is not going to shoot itself in the foot during the summer...

We'll see in a few....

sisse

Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I totally agree with this statement; it's inline with my thinking. But I believe a big surprise will happen: no hike in June as a fact. The recent free declarations from Kuroda is the source of my view.
What Kuroda said that makes you think the FED will change his monetary policy view?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,145
  • May 11, 2017 11:07am May 11, 2017 11:07am
Quoting goosebone
Makin' Keynes Great Again? No wonder guys like George Will, everyone at the National Review, the libertarians, etc. took their ball and went home. Not your Daddy's GOP, and gets tougher every day to keep the genuine article fiscal conservatives under that tent.
the only people left in the tent will be the outright white supremacists and Nazi sympathizers and various other Know-Nothing elements of the American body politic. It's been a shock to a lot of comfy liberals to discover just how large a fraction of American society that is. Things could get more shocking, though. It won't be easy to impeach DJT unless some obvious bombshells pop....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,146
  • May 11, 2017 11:08am May 11, 2017 11:08am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ==> I don't think we are in normal times to 'sell in may, go away'
ok, well - a sell-off by any name will smell as sweet....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,147
  • May 11, 2017 11:10am May 11, 2017 11:10am
Quoting longfellow
{quote} The FBI are currently raiding and searching the offices of a GOP fundraising/consulting firm in connection with the Russian hacking/collusion investigation. I think that there's some stuff that's about to get real, that will be very unpleasant. https://twitter.com/jemillerwbal/sta...14093899325440
payback's a bitch
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,148
  • May 11, 2017 11:11am May 11, 2017 11:11am
{quote} What Kuroda said that makes you think the FED will change his monetary policy view? sisse[/quote]
Kuroda has made very strong and positive comments about the Japanese economy, including cutting the QE and all his comments came after the last G20 which make me thinking that Central Banks are going to coordinate again their action to manage and accommodate DT.
May be I'm overthinking/translating?
  • #151,149
  • May 11, 2017 11:18am May 11, 2017 11:18am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}ok, well - a sell-off by any name will smell as sweet....
Difference between both scenarios is missing the +15% rally before the sell-off ...which pretty much have all smart money just sitting and waiting till further data. war or tweets to clarify it ...

From a strictly economic point of view (no politics, or geopolitical factors, etc) the US economy is cook for a measured slow healthy pullback with FED finishing the normalisation hikes till the end of the year and then will talk to buy and hold for another leg ... However, DT is short-circuiting all this and interfering with markets and the economy ....so let see how deep he wants to go to gauge the damage ...

sisse

Quoting Fadhl
{quote} What Kuroda said that makes you think the FED will change his monetary policy view? sisse Kuroda has made very strong and positive comments about the Japanese economy, including cutting the QE and all his comments came after the last G20 which make me thinking that Central Banks are going to coordinate again their action to manage and accommodate DT. May be I'm overthinking/translating?
I think you are ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,150
  • May 11, 2017 12:01pm May 11, 2017 12:01pm
Quoting sisse
BOE backtracked on RMT and end of free money concern
What did he do? I thought the Asset Purchase Facility remained at £435billion...
Thanks
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #151,151
  • May 11, 2017 12:06pm May 11, 2017 12:06pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I totally agree with this statement; it's inline with my thinking. But I believe a big surprise will happen: no hike in June as a fact. The recent free declarations from Kuroda is the source of my view.
William Gann agrees with your assessment
twitter: @gettoefl
  • #151,152
  • May 11, 2017 12:11pm May 11, 2017 12:11pm
Quoting gettoefl
{quote} William Gann agrees with your assessment
He's dead mate so he can agree with little green men coming from Mars
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #151,153
  • May 11, 2017 12:18pm May 11, 2017 12:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}the only people left in the tent will be the outright white supremacists and Nazi sympathizers and various other Know-Nothing elements of the American body politic. It's been a shock to a lot of comfy liberals to discover just how large a fraction of American society that is. Things could get more shocking, though. It won't be easy to impeach DJT unless some obvious bombshells pop....
Yeah that was a shock to everyone. Trump, the entire republican party included. I don't think lefties were any more surprised by Trump taking (almost) a majority of votes in the end than was Paul Ryan, Reince P. or any actual real life Republican. Especially since GOP got so much more to lose with some clueless random guy driving their bus. Now you got less than 40% of that block saying they'd vote for him again. Doubt we are really dealing with "the new way" myself. Guess we'll see in 2020 with some good clues in 2018.
  • #151,154
  • May 11, 2017 12:21pm May 11, 2017 12:21pm
Houston, America has a problem, I think I just worked out why Trump got voted in
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used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #151,155
  • Edited 12:51pm May 11, 2017 12:41pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting longfellow
{quote} The FBI are currently raiding and searching the offices of a GOP fundraising/consulting firm in connection with the Russian hacking/collusion investigation. I think that there's some stuff that's about to get real, that will be very unpleasant. https://twitter.com/jemillerwbal/sta...14093899325440
The hill picked it up, also CBS in Baltimore..not sure yet what it's all about, could be nothing, but it appears to be a real raid. Watching this one closely for now.

Edit: Post got it now. Not sure how related. Think fools right about payback.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...004_story.html
  • #151,156
  • May 11, 2017 12:51pm May 11, 2017 12:51pm
Quoting gettoefl
{quote} William Gann agrees with your assessment
I see what do you mean, but I prefer Sisse agrees with me)
  • #151,157
  • May 11, 2017 12:59pm May 11, 2017 12:59pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I see what do you mean, but I prefer Sisse agrees with me)
I think the point Sisse is making CENTRAL BANKS DON'T DO SURPRISES
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #151,158
  • May 11, 2017 1:21pm May 11, 2017 1:21pm
Lol, warning: humor might be hazardous to your trading returns!
  • #151,159
  • May 11, 2017 1:23pm May 11, 2017 1:23pm
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} I think the point Sisse is making CENTRAL BANKS DON'T DO SURPRISES
I don't think so! His point is that expectation for FED hiking is a done deal (90%). There is no other signs (i.e., CBs coordination) for another scenario or surprise. It happened in the recent past after Brexit voting that CBs made a surprise and managed to soften the brexit outcome.
  • #151,160
  • May 11, 2017 1:46pm May 11, 2017 1:46pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I totally agree with this statement; it's inline with my thinking. But I believe a big surprise will happen: no hike in June as a fact. The recent free declarations from Kuroda is the source of my view.
That's exactly the response; BOE didn't cut QE nor raise the interest to absorb inflation.
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