AUDUSD journal

Watchlist

GBPAUD short
AUDUSD long
AUDCAD long
GBPCHF short
NZDCHF short
CADJPY short

30min SL is a little bit too much for my account size especially with 0.05 lot size and higher. So I'm going to be moving down to 10min with 0.05 lot from tomorrow morning. I would still have 15m 30m, 1h and 4h charts as a general guide before taking any position on 10min.

There's been great opportunities across board today if you know how to spot them. I'm calling it a day now.

Be back tomorrow @7:30 for screening.

Good day !

Well I'm back again for a short while.
Doing some analysis on trades I took today and problems I encountered.

Here're trades I took today

1. EURAUD short
2. GBPAUD short
3. GBPCHF short
4. NZDCAD long

I'm out from all trades. Its just a review that's done at the end of the trading day.

I didn't make any notes on my chart as I know where I went in and where my target TF was and SL was. All entries made on 30m with 1h and 4h, 12h charts a guide. Except for GBPCHF short all those 3 trades hit my initial TF which mostly was 1h 200EMA as for GBPAUD 1h 100EMA the blue line.

In conclusion I would have been sitting here with over 10$ by now since I traded 0.01 but in pips over hundred pips if I had kept them going. GBPAUD and EURAUD short went well because like Ive been saying this morning AUDUSD was wrestling for a trend change. So I was expecting AUD to gain momentum as the day progressed which it did clearly. As for NZDCAD CAD was particularly weak as opposed to NZD and likewise NZDUSD was getting ready for an upward move supported by 1h 200EMA. The problem with GBPCHF was that even the setup was first detected and entered upon a bearish candle below the 30m on 1h 20ema was right below so there was some slight chance price could bounce back. There was no ceiling established on GBPCHF on higher TFs like 4h and daily. GBPCHF was in a strong upward move. I was basically trying to catch the top. So out of all these trades GBPCHF short was definitely a bad setup and a setup I went a whopping 0.05 lot with 40pips SL. If it turned against me it would have been a disaster even if I held through all the other 3 trades, if those 3 trades were at 0.01 lot.

So here comes the take away

I think I do a pretty good job spotting potential setups. However I usually fail to hold through those trades. I am impatient. I don't stick with my plan. But if you think about the root of the problem its the fear of losing what I could have made. I didn't have this fear when I was new and fresh. But last year of day trading 15sec charts have in a way effected me this way. On the bright side, staring at 15sec chart 4-5 hours a day I have become much a better technical trader. On the previous post I wrote that I'm going to stick with 10m chart with 0.05 lot. But now looking through these trades I think I have a better chance at 30min entries. I need to work up my patience again. If I don't fix this I will keep losing no matter what and trading lower TFs only make this worse not better.

So the decision is made, 30min entries with 1h, 4h and 12h chart as a guide. If I'm going to trade 30min chart then I better keep my lot size 0.01, as I can't handle losses that are -20$ per trade with 0.05 lot. With a trade like GBPCHF my acc would suffer, and I can only imagine the emotional toll it'll have on me.

And last but not least I need to work harder on spotting potential setups. GBPCHF short was bad. Don't call the top. I don't afford to call the top and buy the bottom. TRADE AWAY FROM MAJOR MOVING AVERAGES REGARDLESS OF YOUR TIME FRAME. In the case of GBPCHF it was going up on every major time frame with major MAs below the price. So if i were to trade GBPCHF away from MAs I should have went long. That's my number one rule 1. TRADE AWAY FROM MAJOR MOVING AVERAGES REGARDLESS OF YOUR TIME FRAME.

EURAUD was also up on every TF and all MAs were below the price ? well at least there was a divergence on 4h with EURAUD and also a cluster of candles right above my 4h 20EMA usually a good sign that price is about to fall and on 30m EURAUD had been ranging failing to make new highs since yesterday and a narrow range that usually happens before a breakout same with NZDCAD long look at the narrow range right below 30min 200EMA. I'm sure GBPCHF will head down sooner to later but it wasn't going to happen today.

If I can stick with my rules and follow the instructions trading 30min is much better for me than trading 15sec chart in combination with 1m and 5m. First and foremost my risk to reward ratio is going to be healthy with 30min from 1:2 to 1:3 or 4 on some trades that will offset the bad days. Considering that you only have slight statistical edge without 1:2 and higher risk to reward ratio even with the best system and MM you can't make anything, you'll drown.

So keep aiming for 1:2 trades at least. Spot the potential trades. Trade them with the plan. Either it will hit your SL or TF.

I must overcome this phase if I want to make it, and I'm better at spotting potential setups now than ever before so its about time I take advantage of that.

I'll call it a night from here.
See you tomorrow @7:20

Watchlist for today.
I'll eliminate some for the 2nd round and choose the most eligible and with less risk and more reward.

1st round:

1. EURUSD long
2. AUDUSD long
3. EURAUD (short)
4. GBPAUD (Short)
5. AUDCAD long
6. CHFJPY long
7. GBPJPY short
8. NZDJPY long
9. USDJPY short
10. NZDCHF long
11. USDCHF short

Current setups:

1. EURUSD long
2. AUDUSD long
3. EURAUD short 50/50
4. GBPAUD short 50/50
5. USDJPY short
6. NZDJPY long
7. NZDCHF long

2nd round

Current setups:

1. USDJPY short
2. NZDJPY long

USDJPY SHORT

Diversion spotted on 30min, 1h and 4h. I am not trading away from the MA in this case. However like I mentioned there's diversion on all of these 3 major time frames and 4h specifically. I calculated my RR if it all goes well it's going to be a 1:7 position even with 0.05 I can keep my risk within 5$. So that's a plus.

NZDJPY LONG

As for NZDJPY I'm trading away from the 200EMA on 1h and 30m so it qualifies my main criteria. I've chosen NZDJPY over NZDCHF mainly because it was in an uptrend on 4h and yen pairs move faster and in greater range compared to franc crosses. However there's one concern NZDJPY was in a steady uptrend prior to the RBNZ statement ,the violent fall that occurred early asian session was due to this release. Cash rate remained unchanged. I haven't read the summary just yet. So buyers maybe hesitant to put their orders in, if it has been a really bearish statement. So that's my concern with this setup.

But if I see price reacting in a bullish manner I'll be in.

USDJPY in 0.05 lot

SL: -6.26$
TF: 20$

1:3 setup if everything goes well.

Stick with your plan. Stick with your plan.

I'll only have one position at any time. If this hits my SL I'll look for another opportunity. In the meantime I'll keep an eye on the market every 30mins , also other pairs.

One thing I forgot to mention with NZDJPY long was that, AUDNZD is right below 4h 200EMA there's a good chance it'll fall back. Wheeler sent AUDNZD up through the roof so I'm expecting some correction to occur that justifies my NZD long positions.

If that goes as I expected AUDUSD long and other AUD longs will have a trouble gaining momentum for a while. That means EURAUD and GBPAUD shorts may take sometime to materialise.

Let time work in your favour.
Let time work in your favour.
Let time work in your favour.

If you keep closing positions you'll never get ahead.
Sitting by the platform won't make any difference.
You'll most likely close your position once its 5-10pips or even less.

be patient.
you can't beat this without proper MM and RR and above everything else PATIENCE to wait for the right setups and PATIENCE to sit through minor corrections and PATIENCE to wait for your TF or your SL.

Last word of advice for myself.

Don't keep checking the charts every 10min thats a good way to close your winning position.
Check your chart every 30min. Don't close positions manually you have your SL to do the job. And don't adjust your SL again.

I know I've said many times I wouldn't trade 1m charts or lower as they were really challenging and it was hard to navigate through the noise. The only way to trade lower TFs is to combine them with higher TF charts. The problem with was that I was still struggling to trade combination of charts, and on 1m charts I would lose my sense of direction easily although I tried to combine it with 10m, 15m and 30m charts.

Remember I mentioned about EURUSD long at the start of the day. Well I just had a look at EURUSD and I'm attaching the charts here from 1m to 4h. I did some notes This is yet to be tested and concluded but nevertheless here's my observation.

USDJPY SHORT

My position is still going.
But I zoomed down to 1min chart to check out for a better entry. And trying to figure out if I could have done it on 1min.

Back to desk for European markets open.

Closed my USDJPY long before it hit TF.
Opened EURAUD short on 1min chart in combination with 30m ,10m,15m and 5m but again closed it before it hit TF.

So here's what I've concluded so far.

It is possible to trade 1m chart in combination with higher TF charts as a guide. And it could be very profitable if you can do it the right way. I don't have to set my SL too wide on 1m if I'm wrong I'll get out quick. From what I've observed when you have a good confirmation on 10m, 15m and 30m they're very few instances where it could go wrong. Because even if I"m entering on 1m I am trading the signal on 30min, well you also get a signal on 1m. So its a double confirmation.

Now here comes the patience part. Whether I"m trading 30m or 1m I still can''t get around to sticking with my trades. Well I think its mostly because I lack experience and I"m not confident in my approach. But the good new is I think I'm finally starting to get the hang of this. It's too early to celebrate. I need to work harder. So my plan for tomorrow morning is to try to trade the 1m charts. But I would look at 4h,1h and 30min charts first to get a feel of each target and wait for an entry on 1m. USDJPY, EURAUD, GBPAUD, EURNZD and GBPNZD moves plenty starting from 8:00-9:00. So I'll be aiming specifically for these pairs during Asian session. If I do get a decent position during Asia, well there're usually is at least one. Then I'll take a break from closing my Asian session position to 6:00GMT that's when I"ll again browse through EUR, GBP crosses along with yen crosses for potential positions.

From tomorrow my watchlist will be reduced to

1. USDJPY
2. EURAUD
3. GBPAUD
4. EURNZD
5. GBPNZD
6. EURCAD
7. GBPCAD

If I don't see any setups I'll add these (those are going be rare but just establish the rules) my main pairs are going to be mostly EUR and GBP crosses.

1. EURUSD EURAUD movies 50-60pips so I'll stick with the crosses.
2. AUDJPY
3. NZDJPY
4. GBPJPY

So here's my todays updated watch list

1. USDJPY
2. GBPAUD
3. EURAUD
4. GBPNZD
5. EURNZD

EURAUD potential LONG (charts are EURAUD)
GBPAUD potential LONG

similarly GA is also holding onto 200EMA on 1h

As for USDJPY I'm tilted towards a SELL

I haven't got a signal 8:00UTC signals can be very rewarding in a sense that you get an early entry to a wave of trend continuation that starts when London opens. This is the time for an optimal entry as regards to pairs like GBPAUD, EURAUD, GBPNZD and EURNZD and USDJPY.

USDJPY short too off @8:30 UTC

I of course missed the trade.
I'm really tired this morning. Couldn't sleep well last night. Woke up late. Not trying to make up any excuse for not taking that trade.

But I need to be confident, I will be confident and take the damn trade from Monday onwards. I need a good rest on the weekends away from the screen and phone.

Well here's how USDJPY developed

I think it was safe to go short by the close of 30min rejection candle if you zoom into 5m thats the candle I should have went short. I was waiting for another confirmation another bounce up from 20EMA but as it is often the case during Asia you don't get your perfect candle setup.

USDJPY is down about 20-30pips depending on where you got in. Thats a decent move for Asian session. GBPAUD and EURAUD longs are still in my watchlist. We haven't got a signal yet. Now that its past 8:30 I doubt there'll be anything until 12:00-13:00UTC anyhow I'll keep checking every 30mins.

Today I'm going to call it off earlier than usual since I'm really tired.

Good morning.

Woke up at 6:10. Did some cleaning around the house. (This is turning into a blog)
Had my coffee. Did a quick screening. And here's what I've found so far.

USDJPY long
GBPJPY long
GBPAUD confused (I managed to go short on that and got out with 2pips, I know my patience is killing my consistency)
EURAUD confused

I have a long position going on USDJPY.
0.05 lot SL: -11$ TP:22$
I try to take 1:2 positions. I try.
Working on my impatience as well. I'll try harder.

USDJPY 1h, 30m, 10m charts are as follows:

DAX analysis.

diversion on 4h, 1h, 30m and 10min down to 2min practically everywhere I'm seeing diversion. I won't go into any more details on DAX. But my bias is short on DAX. We'll see how it goes when Frankfurt opens.