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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,121
  • May 10, 2017 7:13pm May 10, 2017 7:13pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I guess the one part of yesterday's news that is market related is the possibility that investigations move out of congressional committee as a result.
Trump rally is all about what Santa will bring - tax cuts and deficit spending. If Trumpy Claus paints himself into a corner and can't deliver the stocking candy, WS will figure it out....might not be so happy.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151,122
  • May 10, 2017 7:19pm May 10, 2017 7:19pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Trump rally is all about what Santa will bring - tax cuts and deficit spending. If Trumpy Claus paints himself into a corner and can't deliver the stocking candy, WS will figure it out....might not be so happy.
Quite a shell game they are playing now with it. They will need to sell it like those Visa/MC set ups they do on college campuses. Spend now, pay...later? never? whatever, just spend now. Here's a free t-shirt.
  • #151,123
  • May 10, 2017 7:53pm May 10, 2017 7:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah but will close if that dt is broken.. i will add below dt a little..124.53, i am not biased yet. i am just playing for the reward of 400. atm it just a higher risk trade versus a decent reward. near 124.53, but below is the better r/r. but it's still a higher risk. but risking 5 or less for 400 can be rewarding. much better than it was at 100 earlier today
Seems like the downtrend is starting .idk if i trust this eurjpy movement for now might take this huge loss and move on . I shorted st 124.15 :/
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #151,124
  • May 10, 2017 8:39pm May 10, 2017 8:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
some eu R 0895 probable. strength unknown atm.. thinking 0877/78 will be tested.. st.. but i can't forget it missed 1.1115 or 1.1316.. still waiting on usdx 101.52. playing small setups between.. still ready to s eu 1.1115/1.1316 or higher.. and still waiting to long it at or above usdx 101.52... 0895 could be important either side.. L and NY did close below today.. but the week was above...
st hit..< next i dont know.. but if it manages 0895+ closes , then 0939 may get some quality time.. sofar that 0859 area held the closes. that 0895 should be a weak R at least.. but 1115 could still attract eu.. its no different than what happened st with 0877. dont mistake me saying its not bearish, it is. but it also can drop to go higher.. it has dropped since election.. 0939 isn't much of a move on its own. being above 0895 may be some hidden bullish signs,, the bigger the close the bigger the sign. NY and London day below closed
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,125
  • May 10, 2017 9:03pm May 10, 2017 9:03pm
gator whats your view on usdjpy?
  • #151,126
  • Edited 9:55pm May 10, 2017 9:41pm | Edited 9:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} st hit..< next i dont know.. but if it manages 0895+ closes , then 0939 may get some quality time.. sofar that 0859 area held the closes. that 0895 should be a weak R at least.. but 1115 could still attract eu.. its no different than what happened st with 0877. dont mistake me saying its not bearish, it is. but it also can drop to go higher.. it has dropped since election.. 0939 isn't much of a move on its own. being above 0895 may be some hidden bullish signs,, the bigger the close the bigger the sign. NY and London day below closed {image}...
That 0939 is the mid between 1015 and 0863 right? If so why not use 1025 (pre-market high) as the starting point? That would shift mid to 0944.

I actually was looking at the range between 0996 and 0863 to get that mid area until I saw your post. Can you say why you wouldn't use the 0996 high as a starting point?

I also can't figure out where 1115 comes from. The closest I could get was 1111 using 0493-0905 range +50%.
  • #151,127
  • May 11, 2017 5:48am May 11, 2017 5:48am
...and here we go for the BOE.

==> We are in early RMT since last month. Numbers have soften in the UK, elections (especially the coming ones) wont help until they are cleared, Brexit toll is starting to charge its early price with lots of companies on the way out from very different sectors and a huge mountain of issues, policies and etc that will need to be addressed with hard brexit but more importantly for today inflation has overshot and its already above target.

Expecting a slightly hawkish BOE but with all eyes in inflation. Carney will be mute until election are over and market expectations are heavily aligned that BOE wont do much in the rate front until July except send soft technical signals to markets while politicians play election politics BS in the next few weeks.

With economy softening, tax rises coming and with hard brexit in play BOE will stay with the hardest job in town. Pulling the trigger too early with rates, could trigger an awfully painful domino in the real economy, puling the trigger too late, and inflation will eat real wages and pensions before Brexit even start ....

==> Technically very simple maps in play with a strong neutral MT outlook, there is 'crumbs' to the 1.30xx handle to complete the extension to 1.324x to fill or kill current positions, to the other side also extremely tradable especially for the election play and with Dollar RMT in mind to set the high of the Q and back to the bottom of the range for election ...

Actively trading Sterling* here ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,128
  • May 11, 2017 6:00am May 11, 2017 6:00am
If not UP the other side is DOWN
  • #151,129
  • May 11, 2017 6:01am May 11, 2017 6:01am
Hawkish more hawkish than expected ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,130
  • May 11, 2017 6:06am May 11, 2017 6:06am
Carney more important than expected for today after this. ... tighten seatbelt at the bottom of the hour just in case in the very short term (all micro levels raised till clear) as we may have a quick and sharp mover in Sterling* before NY that could carry the FX board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,131
  • May 11, 2017 6:26am May 11, 2017 6:26am
Inserted Video
  • #151,132
  • May 11, 2017 7:07am May 11, 2017 7:07am
A rather very mild on the borderline dovish Carney. BOE pretty much shielding itself from the spotlight till elections are over

Here clearing all remaining position in Sterling manually with NY and more importantly:

=> Only outlook from the BOE,

Changing short term outlook in Sterling from soft buy to neutral.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,133
  • May 11, 2017 7:26am May 11, 2017 7:26am
Watch out Euro tripping in the back of Sterling*. There is very little but air below the current levels till the lows of the 1.07xx handle.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,134
  • May 11, 2017 8:47am May 11, 2017 8:47am
eu just tagged 0865.. some possible R at 0870/71 now to contain st.. along with 0895.. maybe 0819 coming
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,135
  • May 11, 2017 8:51am May 11, 2017 8:51am
Quoting Deitreider
{quote} That 0939 is the mid between 1015 and 0863 right? If so why not use 1025 (pre-market high) as the starting point? That would shift mid to 0944. I actually was looking at the range between 0996 and 0863 to get that mid area until I saw your post. Can you say why you wouldn't use the 0996 high as a starting point? I also can't figure out where 1115 comes from. The closest I could get was 1111 using 0493-0905 range +50%.
i dont recall.. st stuff comes and out my head.. i was focussed on 0895 closes more than st things at the time. in the attempt to get to a small norm 09xx. it had 0895 to overcome or not,,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,136
  • May 11, 2017 8:53am May 11, 2017 8:53am
Quoting gatorinla
eu just tagged 0865.. some possible R at 0870/71 now to contain st.. along with 0895.. maybe 0819 coming
here now L close below 0859 is on the bear side. between 0859 and 0895...???
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,137
  • May 11, 2017 9:03am May 11, 2017 9:03am
Anyone shorting sp500? i have short 2398 tp 2360
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #151,138
  • May 11, 2017 9:59am May 11, 2017 9:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} tp hit.. 1/2 profit risked, being used for short now..
b.e. +1 atm.. ej, will move it lower shortly..
i also took a eu 0870 short risking 8.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,139
  • May 11, 2017 11:23am May 11, 2017 11:23am
...and Europe going home in a rather calm session but with plenty of data especially from the UK.

Highlights with slightly 'good' news for UK equities and dovish for Sterling* as BOE backtracked on RMT and end of free money concern will be guarantee until well after elections are cleared at the expense of even higher inflation and lower wages for the average Brit.

Expectations for a rate hike in the UK dropping below 25% while more powerful rate hikes expectations for FED June passing by a long shot (90% for hikes in the next meeting) the point of no return. Expecting sharp moves in Dollar in the upcoming sessions especially after inflation numbers tomorrow. Rate hike June is a done deal.

Actively seeking for positions in Sterling, AUD and to lesser extend in Yen for the rest of the week. On the rest of the board, all markets behaving with same levels, same trades, same all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,140
  • May 11, 2017 12:01pm May 11, 2017 12:01pm
Quoting sisse
... Expecting sharp moves in Dollar in the upcoming sessions especially after inflation numbers tomorrow. Rate hike June is a done deal.
...the more DJT appears hamstrung the more we set up for 'sell in May, go away' and a tightening Fed plays into that. Been a long time coming but we could finally see some love for US equity bears....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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