Channel-to-pivot approach

In summary my observations for today:

GBP up
EUR up
CHF wait; check for obvious bounce off resp break of 76.4 level
JPY down
USD wait; check for obvious bounce off 38.2 area
AUD wait for reversal into trend down
NZD down
CAD down

Pair the currencies accordingly and aim for pivot levels for entry, re-entry and exit.

The Big Picture this morning

Big picture, 3/5/17

I have been trading CHFJPY(+), NZDCHF(-) and CADCHF(-) this morning.

Look at that Sharpe ratio.. ;-)

Big picture, 4/5/17: I'm still not touching EUR and GBP.

Interesting approach subscribed to the thread ..

Big picture, 5/5/17 -

I modified the algo behind the Uber-Index: the piercing of a fibo level will cause the wave to be updated. Once three levels have been breached in one direction, a directional bias is shown. This latest approach shows the striking relevance/phenomenon of fibo ratios for price movement even more. I use it to give me a perspective into market structure.

The same like above but showing the raw index data for AUD.

Final version of Uber-Index...probably (it keeps me busy while waiting for my trades to close.)

I'm using a revised self-optimizing algo to get the "ideal" look-back period, slope and channel (see EUR, CAD and JPY raw index data for visualization) - i.e my perception on direction and trade space. The derived look-back period is then the window to draw the price wave within the fibo structure.

Big picture 8/5/2017 with final final version of the index.

If somebody wonders about the fibo levels, they relate to retracement and must be read from right to left - e.g. an uptrend might pull back to 76.4%, which has nothing to with 78.6%. An interesting question for my current exposure are the pullbacks of CHF and NZD. I'm watching this closely.

Big picture 9/5/17

I mentioned CHF and NZD yesterday: NZD remains a sell after bouncing off 23.6 and CHF has entered no-mans-land (zone between 61.8 - 38.2) after the double "sell the news" (i.e. CHF being the safe haven of the EUR being sold) event over the weekend. You might have noticed, the spread between EURUSD and USDCHF trading at its extremes yesterday and the weekend gap for EURCHF being very significant for that pair (and it hasn't closed yet). From an optimal regression point of view, CHF remains a buy for now. NZDCHF shows a mixed picture with indices derived channels sloped downwards and price bouncing off the 23.6, but the pair derived channel has switched to upwards.

NZDCHF with the respective channels.

Coming back to the picture posted before and managing my open positions:

Since I am already in short trades from the time when all 3 channels were aligned, I will continue trading my short bias until price goes above the 38.2 line. The stop loss of my worst trade is set above the max of the 50% line and the regression derived sloped blue line. The next higher ones following accordingly. I'd not close all trades at the same time, but try to get the remainders into positive territory or even scale-in in case the 3 channels re-align.

Speaking about coordinated market intervention... What the heck is going on with the CHF and the USD ! Safe haven switch ??

Big picture 10/5/17

I refined the regression algo further. The previous version was dependent on a minimum number of samples - e.g. 72 bars (=3 days on the H1) - but independent from the previous swing. That could create situations whereby price got stuck e.g. in the 23.6% range for more than the minimum number of samples and even reverse bias. Since I decided to respect Fibo levels in my trading I needed a coherent concept.

Therefore, the revised algo starts with full sample size (=3 months) and iterates forward. It reduces samples thereby finding the most relevant channel and slope (=reducing non-explained variance), while also respecting Fibo levels. The slope (or swing) would not be allowed to change unless the price of the new swing would also break through the 61.8% retracement level of the previous swing. I could also chose 50% but that's not a Fibo level.

The new result and my setup is shown again for NZDCHF: CHF has clearly changed bias since Friday. NZD and NZDCHF remain downwards.

What a move - no relevant retracements... SNB?

Big Picture 11/5/17

Lucky, NZDCHF dropped back back to 23.6%. What a coincidence, or not !? Nevertheless, I did get out.

Most important learning of this week for me:

1) Risk must be proportional to your funding, not to what you want to achieve absolutely.

2) You cannot predict the actions and extent of individual whales (i.e. news, interventions, etc.), but much more the vested crowds reaction to it.