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Random Walk (The unbeatable!)

  • #261
  • Edited 6:21am Apr 18, 2017 5:52am | Edited 6:21am
Yesterday, Monday, it seem most of pairs did breakout 78%/23%. levels. SPX ran a outside day.
Outside day, this method seem not work. Trending works.

Today, usd-jpy stop at 78% and drop to 23% now, seem work.
Today, gbp-usd is wild, but, good swing in neutral, then, breakout, hit 95% top side, 23% bottom side.
cable, euro turn into bullish running now on daily, H4 view.

Today, spx was short down by European/London open to Daily support 2 -- 80%. So, yesterday's bull may come in again as US open is coming.
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  • #262
  • Apr 18, 2017 7:32am Apr 18, 2017 7:32am
Quoting Jack168
Yesterday, Monday, it seem most of pairs did breakout 78%/23%. levels. SPX ran a outside day. Outside day, this method seem not work. Trending works. Today, usd-jpy stop at 78% and drop to 23% now, seem work. Today, gbp-usd is wild, but, good swing in neutral, then, breakout, hit 95% top side, 23% bottom side. cable, euro turn into bullish running now on daily, H4 view. Today, spx was short down by European/London open to Daily support 2 -- 80%. So, yesterday's bull may come in again as US open is coming. {image}
Thanks for your input Jack,

As I have mentioned before, this method is not a trading system. It is a method for seeing the potential turning points..

Good Luck...
  • #263
  • Apr 18, 2017 8:14am Apr 18, 2017 8:14am
gbp-usd got extremely volatile running, 200 plus pips up, lot of stop-loss were killed. Now, it is at 99.9% crit level.
can it go up farther? US traders' order are in lower end, so, dealers or market makers may drop pound to seek orders?
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  • #264
  • Apr 18, 2017 8:31am Apr 18, 2017 8:31am
Quoting Jack168
gbp-usd got extremely volatile running, 200 plus pips up, lot of stop-loss were killed. Now, it is at 99.9% crit level. can it go up farther? US traders' order are in lower end, so, dealers or market makers may drop pound to seek orders? {image}
As you know with the snap election news, pound can go up without any boundaries. Just follow the hesitation around the levels...

Good Luck...
  • #265
  • Apr 19, 2017 11:18am Apr 19, 2017 11:18am
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well it works for me
  • #266
  • Apr 19, 2017 12:20pm Apr 19, 2017 12:20pm
Quoting imran.78p
{image} well it works for me
Another nice one imran, congrats...
You are getting the feel for it, which is the most important thing..

Good Luck my friend....
  • #267
  • Apr 19, 2017 6:24pm Apr 19, 2017 6:24pm
Quoting imran.78p
{image} well it works for me
Nice trade man, which currency and TF do you use?

thanks
  • #268
  • Apr 19, 2017 7:45pm Apr 19, 2017 7:45pm
Thats US 30 index on 15M
  • #269
  • Apr 20, 2017 7:17am Apr 20, 2017 7:17am
Dow seem having a leading role over spx yesterday. Dow was completely bearish yesterday. But, spx rose much higher or more bullish, yesterday.
So, yesterday, Dow is ok, Spx is not ok. I show both cases.

Today, what is future price for Dow and Spx before US open, and after UP open? Can we forecast or spot a turning point in these zones for Dow, Spx?
Or we have to wait till US open and big candles unfold? Or news come out?

Can price repeat itself in future time series with random walk with its boundary randomness or its boundary limit ?

Does Random walk theory mean price has less chance to repeat its old trace? or other meaning?
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  • #270
  • Apr 20, 2017 8:06am Apr 20, 2017 8:06am
Quoting Jack168
Dow seem having a leading role over spx yesterday. Dow was completely bearish yesterday. But, spx rose much higher or more bullish, yesterday. So, yesterday, Dow is ok, Spx is not ok. I show both cases. Today, what is future price for Dow and Spx before US open, and after UP open? Can we forecast or spot a turning point in these zones for Dow, Spx? Or we have to wait till US open and big candles unfold? Or news come out? Can price repeat itself in future time series with random walk with its boundary randomness or its boundary limit ? Does Random...
Hi Jack,

Dow and SPX see to move that way sometimes, but at some point they converge (meet each other at some level).

As far as the forecasting goes, these levels don't forecast the direction, but potential turning points. It should be the trader's mind doing the forecast for the direction.
Random walk theory gives no guaranties about repetitions. So as far as these levels are concerned, if you followed many days, D1Res0 and D1Sup0 play a very crucial role. If they are hit early in the day, prices should reverse. If they are hit later in the day (where there is not much time left), it is not smart to expect a reverse..

Good Luck....
  • #271
  • Apr 21, 2017 5:36am Apr 21, 2017 5:36am
will keep my eyes on this thread.. let me read all first
  • #272
  • May 2, 2017 1:20am May 2, 2017 1:20am
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  • #273
  • May 2, 2017 1:21am May 2, 2017 1:21am
ea WAS perfect today
  • #274
  • May 2, 2017 1:22am May 2, 2017 1:22am
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GA to follow
  • #275
  • May 2, 2017 1:25am May 2, 2017 1:25am
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Could not attempt EN , but it is following the rulez
  • #276
  • May 2, 2017 1:29am May 2, 2017 1:29am
This thread gives u better Entries than many famous group of FF and with Moving averages add confidence to the trade
  • #277
  • May 8, 2017 9:42pm May 8, 2017 9:42pm
Hello GoldTheHun,

Thank you for your thread and the concepts you have presented.

I am trying to understand how your indicator RW-SupportResistanceALL works......

I have been observing it over the past few weeks and have noticed that the distance between DS_0 and DR_0 on the EURUSD is always 85 pips. Shouldn't that value change every so often based on the fluctuating ATR?

Thanks.
  • #278
  • May 9, 2017 4:43am May 9, 2017 4:43am
Quoting drakos
Hello GoldTheHun, Thank you for your thread and the concepts you have presented. I am trying to understand how your indicator RW-SupportResistanceALL works...... I have been observing it over the past few weeks and have noticed that the distance between DS_0 and DR_0 on the EURUSD is always 85 pips. Shouldn't that value change every so often based on the fluctuating ATR? Thanks.
Hi drakos,

The indicator is using Close[1] - Close[2] of 5 minute bars, so it is not based on ATR. The gap between the DS_0 and DR_0 should fluctuate, but since the volatility of the recent days are quite dead, the fluctuation is not noticeable for now. If volatility picks up in the future that gap will also change.

Good Luck...
  • #279
  • May 9, 2017 7:16am May 9, 2017 7:16am
Today, spx on 5 minute chart, a lot of gap between candles, do these gaps affect calculation of volatility, c(1) - c(2), ?

do gap often occur on chart in future spx ?
  • #280
  • May 9, 2017 7:36am May 9, 2017 7:36am
Quoting Jack168
Today, spx on 5 minute chart, a lot of gap between candles, do these gaps affect calculation of volatility, c(1) - c(2), ? do gap often occur on chart in future spx ?
Hi Jack,

The gaps effect the calculation of volatility, but not in a wrongful way. During low volatility times (just like today) and before the cash markets open, spx might have a lot of small gaps, which is a very normal behavior..

Good Luck..
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