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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #24,021
  • May 6, 2017 9:34pm May 6, 2017 9:34pm
I dont know about everyone else...i am expecting to print 1.63.....before i think short...in any situation
  • #24,022
  • May 7, 2017 2:08am May 7, 2017 2:08am
Quoting stormtrader
I dont know about everyone else...i am expecting to print 1.63.....before i think short...in any situation
Agreed. I really like what FXPetra has to say here and I think that a decent portion of the market, given the current narrative and tone, feels the same way (regarding Brexit, ect). This environment is providing so much liquidity at the Ask that there is no need for pullbacks--there is enough market depth on the top side that buyers are eating it all up and still getting good average pricing. As we push closer to 150, I'll want to see the market flag out and drift sideways. Take some profits at or close to 150 and reload where ever support develops, somewhere between 147-150.


Another pair I'm really excited about right now is USDMXN. I'm short in this market and I'm hoping that the rest of the spring and summer will allow this pair to head down for 15 Pesos/ Dollar. I trade similar to FXPetra in that I keep my initial positions very conservative, I've very much approached the USDMXN trade in such a way.
  • #24,023
  • May 7, 2017 3:55pm May 7, 2017 3:55pm
looks like we have a 30-40 pip gap up..... nice for me
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #24,024
  • May 7, 2017 4:14pm May 7, 2017 4:14pm
Please help me and let me know when you see a trend reversal... thanks :-)
  • #24,025
  • May 8, 2017 10:00am May 8, 2017 10:00am
Not sure if a full retrace is on. 23.6% fib would be near 144.35. I would enter a 1/2 position if we made it that low. 38.2% fib would be near 142.65. Would enter another 1/2 position if we reached there. 50% fib would be near 141.35. Would add another full position there. All to target near 148. Of course, all of this is off if there is a fundamental turn around.... like North Korea surrenders, for example. That would send the yen soaring against the usd and take this pair down with it. GoodTrades to all!!!
  • #24,026
  • May 8, 2017 12:45pm May 8, 2017 12:45pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Not sure if a full retrace is on. 23.6% fib would be near 144.35. I would enter a 1/2 position if we made it that low. 38.2% fib would be near 142.65. Would enter another 1/2 position if we reached there. 50% fib would be near 141.35. Would add another full position there. All to target near 148. Of course, all of this is off if there is a fundamental turn around.... like North Korea surrenders, for example. That would send the yen soaring against the usd and take this pair down with it. GoodTrades to all!!!
I think the catastrophic events can be managed with a simple stoploss. And dude, I think you're giving the market too much credit. I don't know about you guys, but have you ever noticed that the market has the ability to react however it wants to news? The same kind of news can push a market up or down, the market, in my humble opinion, is largely irrational. I remember over the years seeing various moves in price and then jumping onto Bloomberg to see "Why?" The trouble is, market "reactions" are oftentimes subjective. There is no magic formula to come to fair value in a market. If there were, the market would move so fast that we'd never get a chance to trade the adjustments as different variables expanded and contracted in our value equation.

I'm not arguing that the market is TOTALLY irrational, but I think that on time horizons below a few months it is.

So, looking at where we're at (And I could be wonderfully wrong), I don't think price will pop the swing low at 145.60ish. I pulled a fib up to 150 and our 23.6% retrace level is at 146.6. I hope nobody trades because of my analysis, but judging by the way this market is moving, a teeny tiny position at these prices might be the last opportunity to get in at this level. I think we'll see a mild retrace after we get closer to 150 (three days worth), and if this thing is the bull of choice for summer, the end zone is up at 160ish.

Petra, if you're up for it, we should do a Skype session sometime.
  • #24,027
  • May 8, 2017 10:05pm May 8, 2017 10:05pm
H+S on M15?
sentiment repainting...
  • #24,028
  • May 8, 2017 11:02pm May 8, 2017 11:02pm
Quoting swamp donkey
H+S on M15?
No
sentiment repainting...
  • #24,029
  • May 9, 2017 2:26am May 9, 2017 2:26am
what is happening with all currencies ?
all they up strong. It may driven by some bigboy drivers?
  • #24,030
  • May 9, 2017 7:23am May 9, 2017 7:23am
This pair seems to go towards 148.5
  • #24,031
  • May 9, 2017 7:27am May 9, 2017 7:27am
overbought condition and it might reverse.

see what happens after the BOE data is released this week.

i will try to short with my stop above 148
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #24,032
  • May 9, 2017 8:45am May 9, 2017 8:45am
Buy 147.415 Target 147.938
Just 20 pips a day to riches
  • #24,033
  • May 9, 2017 9:21am May 9, 2017 9:21am
Closed my longs, thinking there must be some pullback from the double top on the daily from Dec. But it keeps going...
  • #24,034
  • May 9, 2017 9:28am May 9, 2017 9:28am
Quoting Overboard
Closed my longs, thinking there must be some pullback from the double top on the daily from Dec. But it keeps going...
i'm waiting to short
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #24,035
  • May 9, 2017 9:30am May 9, 2017 9:30am
the big fish know this zone will reverse, then they push price go further for hunting stop loss....
  • #24,036
  • May 9, 2017 9:44am May 9, 2017 9:44am
Quoting FastPipn
Buy 147.415 Target 147.938
Out 147.80 30+ pips, done for today
Just 20 pips a day to riches
  • #24,037
  • May 9, 2017 9:47am May 9, 2017 9:47am
Quoting cat
We're butting up against the 76.4% fib level at the moment, which is always a potential very strong fib level to break. If it does break above this, then we could be heading for 15,000 - technically on the weekly chart there is nothing above this to stop it getting there, though I do have resistance just above the 76.4% at around 14,566, which is also today's R2 pivot level. The dips on this pair going back to the 18th April are being fairly aggressively bought, so there is plenty of momentum on the long side to take it through the 76.4% all the...
The only thing that'll stop it reaching 15,000 now I think is a double top @ 14,844. Above that it's the weekly 200ema @ 15,510, though personally I think the 15,000 area, if it gets there, will send it back down, not all the way, but a pullback for sure, though I'm bullish on this pair overall this year now.
  • #24,038
  • May 9, 2017 10:09am May 9, 2017 10:09am
Quoting datdle
the big fish know this zone will reverse, then they push price go further for hunting stop loss....
I'm skeptical about a reversal. Could happen but does not seem probable too soon
  • #24,039
  • May 9, 2017 11:05am May 9, 2017 11:05am
Quoting FastPipn
{quote} Out 147.80 30+ pips, done for today
Couldn't resist Buy 147.627 Out 147.750 +12.3

Total +46.7 pips
Just 20 pips a day to riches
  • #24,040
  • May 9, 2017 11:06am May 9, 2017 11:06am
It respects the primitive lines from long ago

Attached Image
Trendlines

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Here's my buds trendlines
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