AUDUSD journal

A lot has changed since I started this journal on 8th May.


Trades are entered on daily chart.

Pairs traded: every pairs except for AUDNZD and CHF crosses


I trade combination of MAs (that I mostly use as dynamic S&R in place of trendline sometimes), MACD (for possible reversals or corrections), patterns, levels and PA.

That's all there is to how I trade. As for the purpose of this journal is to keep track of my progress, trades I took along with notes or screenshots.

AUDUSD managed to go up 20 pips or more up until London open. Here's a trade I missed again. What a day its been. Then again its no surprise.

I won't be pitying or cursing myself for missing out on trades, have fear of puling the trigger and not being able to act ASAP. I must make a progress. The painful part is I know if a price is likely to fall or go up, I can spot critical its just that I have problem with my execution. Well my executing is getting better but its not good enough when I keep closing trades prematurely that soon turn to winners.

So here's the deal. I will focus on AUDUSD for the morning session and on DAX during Frankfurt and London session. My plan to trade DAX may change as I go along but if I don't trade it how will I learn ? and besides AUDUSD seem to move a lot during Asia and not so much during European session. It may come alive when US opens considering its a USD pair. But I can't stay for US session. To trade the whole day drains me so much, I need time out in between.

I'm planning a strict daily routine (which I didn't have before)

The problem with me is not necessarily not knowing when to get in and get out now its because I lack discipline and patience. I repeat again I lack DISCIPLINE and PATIENCE. In order to be a disciplined trader I need a rigid daily routine. I have to take this seriously now like a job I can't go on like I did anymore. Enough is enough. I have worked so hard, and now its about time I see some reward.

Morning routine

22:00 Go to bed

Look up the calendar the night before

5:40 Alarm goes off get out of bed
6:20 Head out for some fresh air
6:40 Meditation clear out your mind
6:50 A cup of coffee and breakfast
7:15 Time for chart analysis
(Take a deep breath have an open mind don't hesitate, but don't be irrational and let it get the best of you)
say this line to yourself 3 times

During this phase you must establish the direction you want to take and stick with it. Don't be so fickle like you always are. If you keep on doing things the way you're doing you're never EVER going to be successful at this or any other endeavour.

45 minutes for analysis and trade plan. Have the plan ready before you pull the trigger. Don't open trades just because you feel like price is going one way or another stick with your plan no matter what. You're not going to learn your lesson do you ? How many times do I have to repeat ??

8:00 UTC arrives first setup of the day aka ASIAN session presents itself. If you followed the rules by now you'll know exactly what to do. So what you're waiting for pull the trigger ! keep the trade going for an hour or so unless there's some major release or prominent support or resistance level.

10:00 - 11:00 Lunchbreak (I know I have lunch early :-)

This is also the time where rebound occurs most of the time. So use this opportunity to take a break from the screen.

11:40 - 12:00 Around this time second setup of the day AKA Asian session occurs just like today. Even if its 16-20pip move I'll take it, I need'em!
Again keep this trade going until 13:40 depending on the situation of course.

I won't have any break in between the last setup of Asia and Frankfurt open. Hmmm..... I'll have to find a way well I can do my DAX analysis while on break or sometime in the morning. I have to try harder.

DAX update

Well this is why I need to trade DAX. Frankfurt pre open I had a quick run through various TFs from 2m going up to 4h. Last friday DAX shot up on the anticipation of Macron win. Results are out he indeed won the election. Guess what, every TF had a diversion on 2m price was barely holding onto my 20EMA. Price was overbought. If I was going to trade DAX I was going to sell.

Good morning !

Its been a beautiful morning out here. Went out for a quick walk, had my breakfast and came to my desk at around 7:20UTC. Going out for a fresh air woke me up from the asleep state.

When I opened up the chart I honestly didn't if AUDUSD was going up or down from at around 6:00AM it was up about 10pips on 1m major MAs were down below. However price was hovering just below my 5m chart, remember you to have trade away from the 200EMA regardless of your TF I said to myself.

So then I decided to wait for a sell signal on 1m TF. My entry was right on time with SL -3.6 pips away or -3.6$. However I didn't calculate my risk to reward ratio so again I ended up taking profit too early oh god. The problem is when I get in on a trade I usually calculate how much I'm going to risk but I never calculate how much I'm aiming for. I need a plan around this or else I'll never make any real money. So the plan is for example if I'm risking -3.6$ I would aim for 7.2$ or 4$ at least so my risk to reward ratio would be something like 1:1.5 or 1:2 minimum. Once you're committed to a trade with a plan don't get out of it unless it hits your SL or TF. That's a discipline I was talking about yesterdays. So for instance on todays trade I could at least wait for price to touch on my 1m 200EMA that would have been +5$ 1:1.5 trade not bad.

18 minutes to retail sales data

it looks like a long squeeze on 5m I won't be making any trade now as we're getting closer and closer to the release if you don't know what to expect http://news.forexlive.com/!/australi...eview-20170509 here's some heads up. If AUDUSD makes another push up higher my next resistance to sell would be 10m 200EMA .7400. The fact that it bounced up from my 5m 100EMA forming a long squeeze regardless of the 200EMA just right above on 5m is telling me that its getting ready to push higher.

Update: Well it did push higher right before the announcement some 3-5pips before falling hard. Trading high impact news such as this is a real gamble for retail trades like us. We better stay away from getting involved in a sticky situation such as this. The big guys took the price higher before the sell orders right before the news. I guess it was a short squeeze.

I'm going to be back at around 12PM UTC it's lunch break. In the meantime I'll do my homework on DAX and see if I can snatch some pips over there as well. I'll post my pre trading day DAX analysis up here.

So here's a quick analysis on my last two trades.

Yesterday when I opened the chart @ 7:40 - 8:00 price was hovering just below my 1m 200EMA it didn't look like a bullish pattern in any way and there was strong resistance just above on 10m and 15m with rejection candles this was an obvious short and could have sold down to 5m support.

As for today there was strong resistance above the price on higher TFs, and although price had a strong run up (mostly correction from 6AM onwards) it failed to make any new high right below my 5min 200EMA see the minute chart. This is where I entered short with -3.6 SL since I as entering above the 1m 200EMA and 5m 20EMA, 100EMA there was a higher chance that price was going to bounce back. My TF should have been at 1min 200EMA if it breaks through which most likely it would have since we're going towards short on higher TF with resistance up above 5m 20 EMA would have been a better choice. In that way my reward would have been 1:1.5 not bad. Lesson learnt. Keep it going.

DAX pre trading day analysis.

I haven't done any marks on the charts. Yesterday DAX fell up to the 15min 200EMA as seen on the chart , it provided a good support. As for today I'm leaning towards a buy since we're at this major support.

2m, 1m price pattern seems bullish. on 15sec price is already up above. Frankfurt may take it higher that there's little room left to go higher when London opens in that case, if the conditions align I'm ready to go short. The thing with DAX is that you have to be very patient and precise at the same time. Changing your mind often on DAX around these times can be deadly. For real though, I have to be patient and wait for a long setup when Frankfurt opens.

Here's another trade that went wrong :

I took a long position on AUDUSD but got stopped out.

Why did I go long when on higher TFs it was clearly down ?
Well there was a diversion forming on 1m chart and double bottom. Price was getting closer to 5m 20ema. I probably should have waited until price reaches 1m 200EMA. It was an early entry. When you're going against the main trend you better buy or sell around your 1m 200EMA. On this trade price was clearly away from my 1m 200EMA. I should have waited.

Patience. Patience. Patience.

I don't know if I'm built for trading lower TFs such as 1m and 5m anymore.
I have been struggling to find my way with low TFs for a year now - full time. Like I said I do know when to get in and get out, well I have a better idea now than before but yet I still manage to f&^k things up with my execution. How on earth did I decide to go long there ?

I'm thinking if I should trade 1h charts in combination with 4h and daily. Patterns I trade will be the same, I think I need to practice my patience. Or should just stick with 1h chart.

1. AUDUSD LONG
diversion on 1h looks like it had found a bottom 1h candle currently aiming for 1h 20ema I'm going to go long on APEX formation
2. NZDUSD SHORT
possible double top formation its probably that I wait for US open for this
3. EURAUD confused
EURAUD looked like a long however GBPAUD is headed for a possible short so beware
4. GBPAUD possible short
5. EURCAD, GBPCAD, AUDCAD, NZDCAD and USDCAD I'm getting long on almost all CAD pairs CAD pairs usually get active when US opens. To avoid possible stop outs
I will wait for US open 22:00UTC to open trades on CAD pairs
6. Like I said CAD seems pretty weak I'm getting CADJPY short its like the opposite of USDCAD long.

That's pretty much it, as you see I've gotten a lot of signal. Now the waiting game begins. When I open a trade I'll put a quick note.

On a separate note.

USDCAD is already overbought and I see a rejection candle on 12h.

AUDCAD has been in an uptrend on 12h currently right on the 12h 200EMA on top of that I have a possible long on AUDUSD. So CAD is weak and AUD is gaining momentum. In this case despite all these CAD shorts it might be better to go with AUDCAD long. I'll be back in a few minutes.

I'm dropping EURAUD long since I"m getting a long on AUDUSD and AUDCAD it looks like GBPAUD short was right.

for now

1. GBPAUD short I think I lost the optimum entry on 30m
2. EURAUD short I still have a chance but 30m 200EMA is not too far from the price now beware
3. NZDUSD long for now
4. AUDCAD waiting for an apex
5. AUDUSD waiting for an apex
6. CADJPY short
7. NZDCAD long

EURAUD short in 0.01 lot not much gain but in this phase I need to find some stability first before profit. If my performance stabilises with consistent winners I'll increase the lot size to 0.05

I mentioned NZDUSD short. But for it remains somewhat bullish I could take this low to a double top see the purple line thats where I'm planning to go short if the conditions align. For now NZDUSD looks like a decent long however 1h 200EMA right above the right it will some major force to fierce through that. I will again wait for europe open 14:00UTC.

NZDCAD long

1h and 30min
Wait for the trend line to break on 30m
1h 200EMA providing a good support.

NZDCAD long in

EURAUD we're about to touch on 30m 200EMA crucial are bounce up from here is expected as its a major support.
But how far am I going to let this run against me ?
We'll see.

AUDCAD long
AUDUSD long apex formation so far so good. That means I can at least keep my NZDCAD long.

For now no more trades except these two.
Be patient and let time work in your favour.

The only way to beat this game is to have some statistical edge however small it maybe. With high RR trades. I can only do this on 1h and 30m TFs. Don't be irrational. Above anything again be patient.

EURAUD long out

SL : 24pips
TF: 28 pips

Price hit 30min 200EMA possibility of a strong bounce back was high. Didn't want to lose what I had earned since morning. Draghi is up tonight 8PM UTC. I'll see what happens from here. Come back around 14:00UTC

NZDCAD long still going.

This pair can be slow unlike EUR or GBP crosses. So more patience is required for desirable results. RBNZ monetary policy statement is due tomorrow 5:00AM UTC. No change of policy is expected. Cash rate is expected to remain the same.

AUDCAD and AUDUSD possible longs I'm keeping an eye on still. From here it could very form double top just below the 100EMA 30min and head further down. So I'm going to wait for price to get closer to 30min 200EMA. Around these if its bullish a squeeze like pattern usually appears aka an APEX.

That's all I have for now.

Again be patient but rational

NZDCAD long out with +8 pips.

Don't get married to your positions.
As seen on 1h chart it looks like NZDCAD is going to have a hard time piercing through the trend line drawn as seen on the chart. I'll come back when US opens as CAD pairs are generally active and you get a final setup around 21:00-22:00 UTC.

Minimise your loss
Maximise your winners

EURAUD is retracing hard.
GBPAUD is stronger than EURAUD

I'm still bullish on AUDUSD and AUDCAD
So I do expect EURAUD and GBPAUD shorts to roll back around from 16:00UTC.

No more on watchlist.
I got no current positions.

Back again in 30mins on London open.

EURAUD long
NZDCAD long

If I had my positions going they would have been over 50pips in total now.
Stick with your plan
I need to practice more patience.

GBPCHF short
AUDCHF short
NZDCHF short

bunch of CHF shorts. while I may have lost the EURAUD short I still have a shot at GBPAUD short pricing hanging just above my 30min 20EMA. If I lose GA I still have francs. Calculated my RR GBPCHF has the longest potential distance to fall. AUDCHF short looks like a tough battle as 1h 200EMA right below not too far. NZDCHF also comes close to GBPCHF in terms of RR and its right below 4h 200EMA. Remember trade away from the MAs.

AUDUSD and AUDCAD still pushing it. Haven't got a confirmation yet.