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The Really Useless Thread

  • #151,001
  • May 8, 2017 4:05am May 8, 2017 4:05am
...and that was it for a very active european morning. French election chapter officially closed.

For this week menu we have BOE to complete the legs in Sterling and inflation to continue with RMT in Dollar.

On the Euro, we have pretty much set the high of this Quarter. Eyeballing 1.061 before the next FED/ECB combo

Here got all what I need across the board....

===================== ==========

For those interested, we have a bunch of updates in outlooks, I published on that sheet overnight after the results but the 2 main highlights come from Euro* obviously.

Finalupdatesfrom the French election front

--> Changing short term outlook in Euro* from Buy to Neutral,

--> Changing short term outlook in Euro from untradable buy to Neutral.


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,002
  • Edited 4:34am May 8, 2017 4:21am | Edited 4:34am
[quote ClinicalEx;9823212]Consolidation inside a narrow 100 pip range since the 1st round of the French election continues on the pair. The range has contained lots of Euro positive data from inflation to manufacturing and a marked downturn in Dollar and therefore normalization positive data. If the FED statement is relatively hawkish today or at least not-dovish (probable outcome) we can discard alot of that and look to the likely sell the Euro news play for the 2nd round of the French election. (CHECK) It's looking like a decent asymmetrical play in that Le Pen winning will tank the currency even more than Macron sell the news. Bund yields extended on pricing out risk after round 1 so between that and monetary policy divergence the topside will be increasingly capped while the floor for and potential room for benchmark treasury yields to move will be stronger pursuant to a non-Dovish FED. It's all about selling a potential top of a range- as Chester and others increasingly suspect- or what could turn into a retrace for a continuation below 1.05. I'd like to see the highs get cleaned out ST and test 98.50 on DXY, maybe in slightly illiquid/event driven conditions. (CHECK) 1.098 in play on Fiber[/quote]

A Euro rally defined by strong inflation numbers, consistently good economic # prints and encouraging signs from the periphery (Spanish employment) as well as the big one, business as usual via politics, is finally moving into core dollar levels.

Mixed feelings over here politically. While in total agreement with the fundamentals of a free trading zone, financial deregulation and a common currency for a common continent- as common as the likes of Germany and Greece can be anyway... My views soured with the influx of millions of economic migrants from across the world. I have that in common with many opponents of globalism.

It's one thing to be a multi-cultural land but to invite in scores of disparate cultures leads to balkanization at best, or has a very real impact of negating the cultural fabric of an individual nation at worst. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, for one, has spoken of post-national state to qualify this, with Belgium being a clear example in Europe, and I don't like those implications for Europe as a whole one bit.

Rate spreads tightening as expected with the news as we settle back into a more normal environment. A diminishing returns normalzation FED cycle from the US still trumps the dovish ECB.
  • #151,003
  • May 8, 2017 6:36am May 8, 2017 6:36am
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for a very active european morning. French election chapter officially closed. For this week menu we have BOE to complete the legs in Sterling and inflation to continue with RMT in Dollar. On the Euro, we have pretty much set the high of this Quarter. Eyeballing 1.061 before the next FED/ECB combo Here got all what I need across the board.... ===================== ========== For those interested, we have a bunch of updates in outlooks, I published on that sheet overnight after the results but the 2 main highlights come from Euro*...
Sisse, whats your view on GOLD ST and MT.

Its clear that for a currency we have macro, risk and monetary influence for FA. What do you generally put into equation for gold? Here is my try:

On ST for gold:
1. risk on/off (on for bullish/off for neutral or bearish): since we cleared French elections no risk is on horizont short term (only Trump can unexpectedly trigger something) - neutral (0 impact). + Equities slowly making new ATH on low volatility.
2. interest rates (exp. rise = bearish/exp. lower = bullish): US has RMT ST and ECB to enter tightening but thats beyond ST - soft sell via FED ((-) impact) (soft because of the late hike cycle period)
3. inflation (exp. rise = bullish/exp. lower = bearish): there are no big expectations on ST =) US again ticking closer to FED target + EU another rise expected =) soft buy via inflation ((+) impact.

So I get ST =) (0) and (+) and (-) =) neutral which means we should stay between top and low of the chart and nothing to trade ST.

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On MT: not sure what we have.

1. risk on/off: possible a risk-off episode but I guess we trade that when it happens via a ST leg and sub-ST flows. Not sure if gold is influenced this way also on MT. ((0) impact???)
2. interest rates: US on track but we will move further into the cycle = neutral/ ECB triggering exp. of QE tapering = strongly bearish ((--) impact)
3. inflation: on mid term nothing out of control expected - slow rise expected by CBs. Neutral (0 impact??)

So that would make 0 and (--) and 0 =) so sell on MT?

I think that wrong because you have MT strong buy as far as I know. Guess the risk part of the equation is wrong.

Anyways, would be great if you can write about your view and reasons for outlooks.
  • #151,004
  • May 8, 2017 7:07am May 8, 2017 7:07am
Quoting traderguy7
{quote} Although it's a very minute chance, if this buy the rumor sell the news scenario in the Euro goes to extremes, we may even fill the gap wayyy below at around 1.07, afterwards, the real move higher in the EURO to take place.
Short term support at 1.0940 broken, continuing moving lower for the EURO.
  • #151,005
  • May 8, 2017 7:33am May 8, 2017 7:33am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, whats your view on GOLD ST and MT. Its clear that for a currency we have macro, risk and monetary influence for FA. What do you generally put into equation for gold? Here is my try: O.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Well try to group the GOLD FA factors in 3 main categories

 

  1. For Risk
  2. For hedge against Inflation / and Storage & Keep value
  3. For its own underlying supply and demand factors as a commodity


From the 3 factors, the 3er one which usually is the most important in any investing instrument is the least important in Gold and rarely will affect direction beyond a short term move.

==> As you know scarcity is the prime property of Gold and therefore sudden changes in the supply side almost never happen so it's a demand driven asset from a strictly trading point of view.

Demand in some cases come from risk factors in play and investors looking for assets that hold value when negative external shocks. in other cases from CB, investors and the general public to hedge against inflation and store value (either in large scale as CBs reserves or simple because you are an average Venezuelan investors with rampant 2000% inflation, etc etc.

==> Instead of having a separate direct correlation between rates and gold I would recommend you to understand the correlation between inflation and gold. In broad terms for trading, rates and (monetary policy in general) will primarily affect Gold when when inflation expectations are in play not in other cases.

==> With that in mind, you points (c) in ST and MT are right. The 2 largest economic blocks ECB and FED are with inflation on target both in the ST and MT. China which is the 3er player and more difficult to evaluate is slightly below targets and Japan which for the first time in decades hit inflation targets (but it's on the miracle side rather than something else).

== While as you well pointed out, we just cleared a major risk hurdle from Europe for this year. ST we don't have much expectations except a DT tweet or a unforecasted risk event.

MT things are a bit less calmer . Brexit, NK, protectionism and conflict levels are increasing at alarming rate.

Nothing to jump the gun yet but in my view we already passed the threshold that 'everything will be fine' as I don't see any options of DT and Putin for that matter sitting in their hands for the next few years. End of WTO, NATO, NK, Balkans, Easter Europe and the never ending M.East will trigger in between as the world is heading to a unilateral playing field with nationalism and populism on the raise ...Basically better be ready than sorry

As you can see, we are entering in wide chop zone with France cleared until further data from the inflation front kicks in (which will be the same triggers for FED and ECB rates and end of QE) wit the ebb and flow via soft risk in between. Only a major risk event will shoot Gold in a non stop ticket to 1430.xx ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #151,006
  • May 8, 2017 9:07am May 8, 2017 9:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} a little eu something at 1002 ish, for a possible little short.. i wouldn't hold it much past 1010 area. atm high 0998. 1010 would be better but i dont know is 1002 will slow/stop or not..
Missed it all. Jic I will be looking at 1044. For no other reason other than norm. So I have it pending . still expect 101.52 usdx so either of these may change a direction. Later stud.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #151,007
  • May 8, 2017 1:18pm May 8, 2017 1:18pm
Anyone thinking of shorting UJ soon or is this a trap?
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #151,008
  • May 8, 2017 1:23pm May 8, 2017 1:23pm
Quoting Mickster
Anyone thinking of shorting UJ soon or is this a trap?
113.64x
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #151,009
  • May 8, 2017 1:23pm May 8, 2017 1:23pm
Quoting Mickster
Anyone thinking of shorting UJ soon or is this a trap?
113.5 could be place to short UJ.
  • #151,010
  • May 8, 2017 1:46pm May 8, 2017 1:46pm
UJ still looks like a large bull flag on the weekly...Dollar is still a buy and risk has faded

I'm skeptical of buying it based on Trump's past tweets concerning North Korea.....I'd rather short it if I caught a Trump tweet in time, as it's shown to be the obvious "Trump risk tweet go-to"
  • #151,011
  • May 8, 2017 1:53pm May 8, 2017 1:53pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, whats your view on GOLD ST and MT. Its clear that for a currency we have macro, risk and monetary influence for FA. What do you generally put into equation for gold? Here is my try: On ST for gold: 1. risk on/off (on for bullish/off for neutral or bearish): since we cleared French elections no risk is on horizont short term (only Trump can unexpectedly trigger something) - neutral (0 impact). + Equities slowly making new ATH on low volatility. 2. interest rates (exp. rise = bearish/exp. lower = bullish): US has RMT ST and ECB to enter...
Nice spot by the way on EJ, seems like a good trade based on EURO and JPY both vs $

500 pips to fill that gap too
  • #151,012
  • May 8, 2017 2:45pm May 8, 2017 2:45pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} 113.64x
Was thinking about the same maybe even closer to 114, thanks
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #151,013
  • May 8, 2017 3:05pm May 8, 2017 3:05pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Nice spot by the way on EJ, seems like a good trade based on EURO and JPY both vs $ 500 pips to fill that gap too
I was thinking this can be the mid term map if im right.

Gotta figure out how to trade this. Not used to trade minors. But I think its about taking a break of the top.

Btw. just have distorted chart /previous week close/ due to my brokers timezone - counts one hour of the open into sunday. thats why im moving to tradingview mostly. The break has not happened yet in other charts.
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  • #151,014
  • May 8, 2017 3:12pm May 8, 2017 3:12pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} I was thinking this can be the mid term map if im right. Gotta figure out how to trade this. Not used to trade minors. But I think its about taking a break of the top. Btw. just have distorted chart /previous week close/ due to my brokers timezone - counts one hour of the open into sunday. thats why im moving to tradingview mostly. The break has not happened yet in other charts. {image}
Interesting, my close shows that the range was extended but not closed.....

If dollar is a buy vs YEN (no risk, dollar buy, yen in trouble long term), and neutral VS EURO (both currencies a buy)- wouldn't EJ go down or be neutral ranging?

I'd like to move your chart to long term instead of mid, when dollar is expected to turn bearish and euro continue bullish
  • #151,015
  • May 8, 2017 3:14pm May 8, 2017 3:14pm
Quoting pharm0r
{quote} interesting, my close shows that the range was extended but not closed..... If dollar is a buy vs yen, and neutral vs euro- would ej go down or be neutral ranging? I'd like to move your chart to long term instead of mid
usd > jpy
euro = usd
==>
euro > jpy ?
  • #151,016
  • May 8, 2017 3:25pm May 8, 2017 3:25pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Interesting, my close shows that the range was extended but not closed..... If dollar is a buy vs YEN (no risk, dollar buy, yen in trouble long term), and neutral VS EURO (both currencies a buy)- wouldn't EJ go down or be neutral ranging? I'd like to move your chart to long term instead of mid, when dollar is expected to turn bearish and euro continue bullish
yes, it was just extended. that chart is wrong. dont worry about it. next time ill post from tradingview

honestly, I dont understand crossess on this. I mean Im not sure if you should just figure out E/U and U/J outlooks and derive for that the status of E/J or if we should think about it in the FA way as is usual on majors. I guess the outcome should be the same.
  • #151,017
  • Edited 3:39pm May 8, 2017 3:28pm | Edited 3:39pm
or lets say I thought:

ST E/U netral + ST U/J buy =) JPY EUR buy.
MT soon E/U buy + MT U/J buy =) JPY EUR strong buy.
  • #151,018
  • May 8, 2017 3:35pm May 8, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} usd > jpy euro = usd ==> euro > jpy ?
Nice way to put it!

Quoting chester123
{quote} yes, it was just extended. that chart is wrong. dont worry about it. next time ill post from tradingview honestly, I dont understand crossess on this. I mean Im not sure if you should just figure out E/U and U/J outlooks and derive for that the status of E/J or if we should think about it in the FA way as is usual on majors. I guess the outcome should be the same.
I agree, thus why I'd like to try and dissect it with you/anyone else- as the pair makes some killer moves

Ken A has a good mathematical formula he posts all the time, I'll look for it
  • #151,019
  • May 8, 2017 3:39pm May 8, 2017 3:39pm
yeah, of course, you right. Meaning one thing writting another Corrected that.
  • #151,020
  • May 8, 2017 3:42pm May 8, 2017 3:42pm
would really like sisse's take on it as well...we've yet to dive into crosses as a thread. But I don't see it being effected via any external factors except risk (like JPY in general). Seems almost like it should be a main cross instead of exotic
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