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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #4,201
  • May 7, 2017 7:09pm May 7, 2017 7:09pm
Quoting Lock
Poor high cluster right now. But note that action is occurring above current pit poc.
Note Sydney went down exactly to Friday pit poc at 2960...
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  • #4,202
  • May 7, 2017 7:13pm May 7, 2017 7:13pm
Quoting Lock
In case of continuation upside the next visible weak references are 2 poor highs one made by pit session 30.09 at 30225 while the following one made by Tokyo 29.09 at 30535. The next major reference upside is at 3064: it is the low of a July inside week. Also note an old pit double pass gap at 30465-30645.
Quoting Lock
Remember anyhow that we are just upon the major composite poc 2968 that should work as a pole of attraction at least for some time.
And as you see after my Friday evening post price continued to go up and down 2968 as normal. Right now price is slightly below it. Let's see tomorrow.
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  • #4,203
  • May 8, 2017 1:54am May 8, 2017 1:54am
Hi Lock,

Hope you had a nice weekend!

I was learning and reading the MarketProfile information the weekend again and something isn't that clear anymore. So I thought maybe I ask you and maybe you can answer my question...

What is involving more risk in terms of odds? Selling above value or Selling below value?
As I understand it correct then selling above value is exposing less risk to the trader (as well as buying below value), ... but I'm a little confused. Hope you can give some light in the darkness
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #4,204
  • May 8, 2017 4:19am May 8, 2017 4:19am
29485 is current highest GB close (05/05). Acceptation above or below it will make the day for GB session. Note price action still up and down major composite poc 2968.
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  • #4,205
  • May 8, 2017 4:31am May 8, 2017 4:31am
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, Hope you had a nice weekend! I was learning and reading the MarketProfile information the weekend again and something isn't that clear anymore. So I thought maybe I ask you and maybe you can answer my question... What is involving more risk in terms of odds? Selling above value or Selling below value? As I understand it correct then selling above value is exposing less risk to the trader (as well as buying below value), ... but I'm a little confused. Hope you can give some light in the darkness
Hi Happyme, good weekend, I'm fine and I hope you're too.

Any MGI (market generated information) could be read in different ways depending upon circumstances. If you have a predominance of weak hands participants and if you are in a rotating environment selling above value (and poc) and buying below it could be the correct answer to your question. Because in this particular circumstance market participants will tend to have a responsive reaction to price moves.
They will generally tend to stay inside a particular range and consequently any time they will see price trying to go above this range they will act selling while if they will see price going below the range limits they will tend to buy.
Btw it is exactly the tipe of circumstance you are observing right now in current cable environment where weak hands participants are clearly ruling the market and as you see they tend to buy below composite poc and sell above it.

But if market participants are of different kind, like major timeframes you could expect a totally different behavior. In this case in fact you could have traders with an initiative approach, buying above value and selling below it. If infact you are in a short or mid term trend (meaning ruled by short or mid term traders) you may experience a continuation of initiative buying if the trend is upside or at the opposite a continuation of the initiative selling if the trend is downside.

So your question is a very good one and the answer is very complex as it is the very base of market understanding. You need experience to learn to read a context and consequently to evaluate the best possible decision to take in any particular environment. Note that my answer could only be a synthetic one as context varies any day and nuances could change it drastically so there are not only 2 possible cases but almost infinite ones. One for each market day. Because you'll never find a day exactly identical as the previous one.

Best, L.
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  • #4,206
  • May 8, 2017 4:44am May 8, 2017 4:44am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Hi Happyme, good weekend, I'm fine and I hope you're too. Any MGI (market generated information) could be read in different ways depending upon circumstances. If you have a predominance of weak hands participants and if you are in a rotating environment selling above value (and poc) and buying below it could be the correct answer to your question. Because in this particular circumstance market participants will tend to have a responsive reaction to price moves. They will generally tend to stay inside a particular range and consequently any...
You solved my confusing, Thank you very much!!

I was reading "Mind over Markets" the part: "over Sell in the hole", "Liquidation" and how eventually we can see signs in our excess or TPO behavior what eventually can result at the end in those phenomenons.
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #4,207
  • May 9, 2017 2:48am May 9, 2017 2:48am
Yesterday GB spike base 2952. Acceptation above or below it will be the second important info for current GB session. The first one was that today GB session opened below it and inside the spike.
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  • #4,208
  • May 9, 2017 3:00am May 9, 2017 3:00am
Yesterday GB close 29395: note B period low exactly tagging it. Highest 2017 GB close at 29485 (made last Friday)

Spike base tested right now: note the acceleration above it.
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  • #4,209
  • May 9, 2017 3:01am May 9, 2017 3:01am
And obviously 2968 still major composite poc of this price zone.
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  • #4,210
  • May 9, 2017 3:06am May 9, 2017 3:06am
Very normal retest of spike base from above by C period: remember that spike base acceptation (above or below) will be crucial for current GB session.
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  • #4,211
  • May 9, 2017 3:29am May 9, 2017 3:29am
Quoting Lock
Yesterday GB close 29395: note B period low exactly tagging it. Highest 2017 GB close at 29485 (made last Friday) Spike base tested right now: note the acceleration above it.
And after the initial failure above spike base here we are again at yesterday Gb close level 29395.
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  • #4,212
  • May 9, 2017 3:36am May 9, 2017 3:36am
29395 taken out. Note that C was inside period of B, consequently this is an attempted breakout downside from balance. In case of failure downside the natural target is at the opposite side of balance, meaning C period high. In case of success we could aim at the lower old GB gap upside down to 2904.
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  • #4,213
  • May 9, 2017 3:51am May 9, 2017 3:51am
Weak hands ruling environment: note D high exactly at yes GB unch plus current half back 2946.
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  • #4,214
  • May 9, 2017 3:56am May 9, 2017 3:56am
This does not mean the breakout has to fail it means that if it will work it will be leaded by weak hands. So in the case, carry forward this important information.
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  • #4,215
  • May 9, 2017 4:02am May 9, 2017 4:02am
Quoting Lock
Weak hands ruling environment: note D high exactly at yes GB unch plus current half back 2946.
Again: note E period low exactly at today GB open 29335. An other precise reference tagged meaning weak hands still in control of current market.
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  • #4,216
  • May 9, 2017 4:08am May 9, 2017 4:08am
Note that last Friday GB session low was poor at 2923 and subsequent preUS session tagged this level. So it is particularly weak. Now, because current attempted breakout downside is leaded by weak hands if we will reach and take out this level and you will not see continuation inside the old GB gap upside down to 2904, be aware of a possible retracement upside.
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  • #4,217
  • May 9, 2017 4:11am May 9, 2017 4:11am
So you are saying points of note are 2923 and 2904.
  • #4,218
  • May 9, 2017 4:15am May 9, 2017 4:15am
Quoting behram
So you are saying points of note are 2923 and 2904.
For GB session, yes. For upcoming pit session, in case of continuation downside we also have the very weak level of 2863 where we still have a single pip gap upside that looks very suspect. But do not forget who is leading current action downside.
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  • #4,219
  • May 9, 2017 4:20am May 9, 2017 4:20am
Quoting Lock
Note that last Friday GB session low was poor at 2923 and subsequent preUS session tagged this level. So it is particularly weak. Now, because current attempted breakout downside is leaded by weak hands if we will reach and take out this level and you will not see continuation inside the old GB gap upside down to 2904, be aware of a possible retracement upside.
Tagged.
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  • #4,220
  • May 9, 2017 4:23am May 9, 2017 4:23am
2923 taken out: now watch out. For continuation we need to get acceptation below it. Target 2904. If we will not have acceptation below 2923 a retracement upside is possible.
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