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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,981
  • May 7, 2017 2:30pm May 7, 2017 2:30pm
Quoting Hank2002
Sisse , any view on GU as a result of the election?
You need to quote him or he might miss your post
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #150,982
  • May 7, 2017 3:08pm May 7, 2017 3:08pm
Quoting Hank2002
Sisse , any view on GU as a result of the election?
Here...

Quoting sisse
{quote}Sterling* is just a random and collateral bystander in this play...sisse

Quoting chester123
I... not the only country in EU so he just cleared the risk and the real MT deal comes with ECB. Therefore I would say we remain in soft sell. Not worth selling MT anyway now in my view. So the map remains the same. {image} Im flat now ST MT LT, will just look for ST positions down in folloing days as the maps show
Dollar is already in RMT. ECB only after today's results have the go ahead to start flirting with the end of QE in the ECB next meeting.

In simple terms from a strictly monetary policy of view. Dollar is in the driver ST, Euro* could take the driver seat for the MT and LT from the summer onwards...

For the immediate reaction flows, check Yen* insteadfrom the Asian open and beyond my 2 cents as is free from risk constrains from Europe and will give plenty of trading opps across the FX board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,983
  • May 7, 2017 3:17pm May 7, 2017 3:17pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Here... {quote} {quote} Dollar is already in RMT. ECB only after today's results have the go ahead to start flirting with the end of QE in the ECB next meeting. In simple terms from a strictly monetary policy of view. Dollar is in the driver ST, Euro* could take the driver seat for the MT and LT from the summer onwards... For the immediate reaction flows, check Yen* insteadfrom the Asian open and beyond my 2 cents as is free from risk constrains from Europe and will give plenty of trading opps across the FX board... sisse
Hmm, so do we change to MT neautral today? Or do we need some hint from ECB to trigger the first wave of expectations?

On JPY given USD RMT =) EUR/JPY may be the best trade
  • #150,984
  • May 7, 2017 3:24pm May 7, 2017 3:24pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hmm, so do we change to MT neautral today? Or do we need some hint from ECB to trigger the first wave of expectations?
Yes we are set for it on the European open, just want to clear the ST final leg first just for TA reasons to allow clearing all remain risk hedges (very very few and mainly uber conservative hands left) and to allow Paris to open so Equities and Bonds enter in the equation with all fully confirmed and scratch from markets interest.

Quoting chester123
{quote}.... On JPY given USD RMT =) EUR/JPY may be the best trade
Indeed especially for a major MT play EJ is back on my trading workspace for the rest of the year and beyond....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,985
  • May 7, 2017 3:26pm May 7, 2017 3:26pm
My Telegram channel pool results

What Will Happen For EURO After French Presidential Elections ?
1- STRONG
2- WEAK
3- INEFFECTIVE

Telegram Channel : https://goo.gl/MDNkK0
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  • #150,986
  • May 7, 2017 4:05pm May 7, 2017 4:05pm
Irrelevant weekend opening as expected.... not much to see till Europe opens tomorrow.

French election [check].

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,987
  • May 7, 2017 4:10pm May 7, 2017 4:10pm
Gap closing. 1.10212 high, 1.10055 low atm
  • #150,988
  • May 7, 2017 4:10pm May 7, 2017 4:10pm
Quoting sisse
...and we are getting results now +65% now the hard part start for France. They have in a slipery down slope for over a decade now. I hope this serve as turning point as the french, the economy and in the current circumstances not only in Europe but the whole world needs a strong positive France leadership and
mate, have to been to France lately, its a bloody mess mostly..we need to see some action taken, we are not out of the woods in the least, if his administration fails to make some changes that will be seen and felt by the everyday Joe, Le Pen will win easily in 2022.....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #150,989
  • May 7, 2017 4:26pm May 7, 2017 4:26pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} mate, have to been to France lately, its a bloody mess mostly..we need to see some action taken, we are not out of the woods in the least, if his administration fails to make some changes that will be seen and felt by the everyday Joe, Le Pen will win easily in 2022.....
=> Yes I absolutely agree with you. France has been all over the place for over a decade. They lost north not now but years ago and they are in urgent need of a proper north.

==> They need to start thinking and moving forward with more progressive ideas in the economy and adapting their core values in a more modern and better approach.

Voting for dinosaurs (in the case of France left and right) who live in a 'long gone' past of French greatness and social equality (France has become a very dislocate society in the last few years which is the exactly opposite of their core principles) or voting for extreme parties (neonazis or communist ...same shit in my books) that deny WWII happened or still think the Berlin Wall exists respectively wont cut it and will only make things worst thats for sure.

==> On Macron, well he has been character assassinated from the traditional parties in France that lost in the 1st round and from the extreme right and left. Is a centrist (which is healthy given the circumstances especially when you need a national plan instead of dividing the country), is young (probably his best plus) in comparison of the dinosaurs in French politics or making policy now in the US or UK and more importantly seem to have a less old traditional handicap French approach to markets and the economy.

==> It's going to be an extremely hard task, in the last few years France has become one of these countries that you cannot even change a light bulb in the Élysée. Making changes in France is a titanic task I agree but they already run of time to keep the same political BS going on and pretending that they will survive as a power house and with high social standards in the modern world for much longer.

It's a no brainer win over a neonazi party, however he will have a very short time to start showing some leadership and proper and original ideas as France is a ticking bomb for the MT and LT ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,990
  • May 7, 2017 4:32pm May 7, 2017 4:32pm
Quoting traderguy7
{quote} But many people have already awakened to the evils of globalism.
You trade currencies with floating exchange rates purely for speculative purposes, right? This is surely the most economically liberal, free-market, globalised, individualistic, capitalistic past-time there is - it epitomises, for many (not me), the very evils of globalism that you allude to in your post...

As expected, a convincing win for Macron. Of the two candidates, Macron was by some distance the least worst. I hope his agenda isn't stifled by a bad outcome in the legislative elections in June. From what I can gather (perhaps Replicant can offer some of his excellent insights?), the chances of him forming an outright majority are viewed as extremely slim, leaving a coalition with The Republicans as the most likely option.
  • #150,991
  • May 7, 2017 5:59pm May 7, 2017 5:59pm
Looks like election polling just bumped up a notch on the long list of things the French do well. Glad they saw fit to ignore attempts to control their (all of our) near term destiny. Bumpy road ahead for Macron. Could be a short one depending on how much meat is in the leaks and even without that, parliament will be anything but smooth sailing. Call me naive, idealist, globalist, duped, whatever you want, but I see it as a small victory for democracy, and for a sovereign nation's right to choose their path despite attempts to corrupt it.
  • #150,992
  • May 7, 2017 6:10pm May 7, 2017 6:10pm
Quoting gammase1
{quote} You trade currencies with floating exchange rates purely for speculative purposes, right? This is surely the most economically liberal, free-market, globalised, individualistic, capitalistic past-time there is - it epitomises, for many (not me), the very evils of globalism that you allude to in your post... As expected, a convincing win for Macron. Of the two candidates, Macron was by some distance the least worst. I hope his agenda isn't stifled by a bad outcome in the legislative elections in June. From what I can gather (perhaps Replicant...
Yes an outright majority at the parliament on his own will be very hard. But personally I think he could make it. He was completely unknown 3 years ago, worked as a minister for 2 years, complained he could not do anything, quit and created a new party from scratch 1 year ago, and he is now elected French president at 39 years old. It's just unbelievable. From this perspective, winning the legislatives elections looks like a normal challenge. Otherwise, yes, the most probable scenario is a coalition with Les Republicains or a cohabitation if Les Republicains get an outright majority.
  • #150,993
  • May 7, 2017 6:37pm May 7, 2017 6:37pm
Just as expected, we have a move lower in the Eur/Usd, it seems the French election victory for Macron already priced in. I expect a bit more of a move lower because of some profit-taking. Afterwards, the real move up higher to take place.
  • #150,994
  • May 7, 2017 7:18pm May 7, 2017 7:18pm
I will wait firstly to see how this is all absorbed the next session or two, and secondly to see how 1.095x is treated. Not really looking for an EU position right now. But how those two things pan out should at least offer a clue for future opportunity short and midterm if there is any for me in these parts.
  • #150,995
  • May 7, 2017 7:22pm May 7, 2017 7:22pm
Quoting goosebone
I will wait firstly to see how this is all absorbed the next session or two, and secondly to see how 1.095x is treated. Not really looking for an EU position right now. But how those two things pan out should at least offer a clue for future opportunity short and midterm if there is any for me in these parts.
Yes, that's a good decision. Sometimes no position, is also a position.
  • #150,996
  • May 7, 2017 7:24pm May 7, 2017 7:24pm
Quoting traderguy7
Just as expected, we have a move lower in the Eur/Usd, it seems the French election victory for Macron already priced in. I expect a bit more of a move lower because of some profit-taking. Afterwards, the real move up higher to take place.
Although it's a very minute chance, if this buy the rumor sell the news scenario in the Euro goes to extremes, we may even fill the gap wayyy below at around 1.07, afterwards, the real move higher in the EURO to take place.
  • #150,997
  • May 7, 2017 7:39pm May 7, 2017 7:39pm
Looks like REVOKED MEMBER is back with a new name
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #150,998
  • May 7, 2017 8:00pm May 7, 2017 8:00pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Looks like REVOKED MEMBER is back with a new name
Please report it if you know the revoked member identity ...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,999
  • May 7, 2017 9:25pm May 7, 2017 9:25pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote}On the FA side (despite of today moves) you know that clearing France will bring major updates in the Quarters to come in the Euro* as not only would clear extreme risk of the table but with the plethora of very solid numbers across all sectors ECB end of QE exceptions play is literally 'weeks' from triggering (check last ECB for more details)sisse

sisse, I assume you are talking about Mr Draghi hinting the end of QE is in the near future, I'm just wondering what was it he said that gave you that idea? because I haven't read on any news site that suggests he was hinting the end of QE is coming soon.
  • #151,000
  • May 8, 2017 2:06am May 8, 2017 2:06am
Quoting sisse
{quote}For the MT/LT Yen* is aligning for a massacre if things go wrong in the geopolitical and free trade front.
Just for clarity, do you mean:

(a)
MT/LT Yen crosses will be under pressure if things go wrong geopolitically in EZ/US (resulting in save haven flows to YEN)

or

(b)
MT/LT Yen will be under pressure if things go wrong geopolitically for free trade (courtesy of US)?


Quoting sisse
{quote}For the MT/LT Yen* is aligning for a massacre if things go wrong in the geopolitical and free trade front
I couldn't determine whether you were saying YEN could become the 'safe house' or the 'slaughter house'


Quoting sisse
{quote}Will discuss in detail later once we clear the FED/French risk combo first. sisse
I couldn't find a follow-up but maybe you haven't done one yet seeing as the French risk has only recently cleared.
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