Help with analysis of trading results

Hi all. I have limited background in statistics so I would be very grateful to anyone with good statistical knowledge to comment on my trading results so I can see where I stand. Is my money/risk management too aggressive etc.? Thanks again.

Hi Tom81,

I enjoyed your posts about the working of large orders & stop losses on Aussi's thread, and that brought me to this thread. As I got something of value from you, I thought I'd try to give something back here, I do have professional experience of interpreting trading/investing performance statistics.

The information you post above is a partial snapshot but does not contain all the essential information required for a complete evaluation. However, on what you posted, the following general points could usefully be made:

1. The account is 5 months old and showing a healthy, reasonably steady progress with good net profit. Very encouraging.
2. Despite a c.40% success rate you have good expectancy and profit factor numbers as your average winner is much bigger than the average loser. This is both quite rare and good.
3. That said, of 2239 total pips earned, 1659 (74% of the total) comes from your best trade. Take this best trade out and all your numbers are much less impressive. This is something to be wary of.
4. The numbers also imply the position size is not equal for all trades. This needs justification.
5. There is no way from the data provided to properly analyse your money management or risk control. A basic measure would be what % of the account do you risk on any trade? How do you deal with open losing positions?

Being nicely profitable after 5 months and 94 trades in itself is very encouraging and already sets you apart from most traders. However, my best guess (and is more of a hunch than analysis) based on the feel of the numbers provided is that your profitability is very dependent on just a few trades which may be a structural weakness (unless of course your system is designed that way; several are).
Hope that helps

Great observation from marcmarc. I agree.

I suppose this is live account. If you want to have a good (and fair) "scoring" of your strategy, then migrate your account to Darwinex.
I think they have the most sophisticated metodology for evaluating strategies. You get very helpful info on which segments are strong or weak in your strategy.

Thank you very much for your evaluation marcmarc. 1659 pip trade is gold trade and moves in pips look 10 times larger than that of currency pairs, so it kind of messes my absolute pips results. Also my worst trade result are from gold (I'm almost flat on gold; equivalent pluses and minuses, so it shouldn't influence general statistic too much).

5. I strictly use 1 % risk per position rule when trading in the direction of the main trend, and 0,5 % risk per position rule when I try to catch correction moves. I try to never exceed 6 % risk per all open positions and never open two trades with high correlation at the same time, as this would effectively mean doubling my risk per position. When I open a new trade and have older positions still open, I deduct their potential stop losses from my current balance if I hadn't moved them in profit territory before. Do you think this is enough conservative risk control strategy?