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  • #150,781
  • May 3, 2017 3:36pm May 3, 2017 3:36pm
TDAmeritrade (my broker) increased margin by 1%. So 3% required to open trades on EU. This is enacted tomorrow @ 5pm, all persons over margined will be closed out. Funny they should bother raising 1%, but suspicious that if I was currently undermargined, and needed to deposit money to bring my account within the new margin rates, I would not be able to do so by 5pm tomorrow because TDA has a 3 day holding period on funds.

So the option for those over margined will only be to liquidate/margin call instead of depositing more $ to be in compliance.
  • #150,782
  • May 3, 2017 3:47pm May 3, 2017 3:47pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} No wonder he's a cocky sob... Similar entry yes, I think you're correct there (unless Le Pen win). But even if so, the natural stop would be the same in either case so why not risk it now? Easy for me to play devils advocate, from my perch 100 pips up.....I think you're right on for your analysis, just don't want you to miss your trigger. Even still there's the lagging trigger, so waiting will increase risk, but maybe decrease initial risk depending on your perspective.
I suspect a flop or close to inline NFP for Friday which may send EURUSD to 1.097-1.107. May be it becomes wiser/better to sell from the top! If LePen wins, you 've your bank, if not, as you said, it's already priced in and the extension to the top is limited. However, with the recent strong data from EU, a game changer is in play!
  • #150,783
  • May 3, 2017 3:50pm May 3, 2017 3:50pm
Quoting Pharm0r
TDAmeritrade (my broker) increased margin by 1%. So 3% required to open trades on EU. This is enacted tomorrow @ 5pm, all persons over margined will be closed out. Funny they should bother raising 1%, but suspicious that if I was currently undermargined, and needed to deposit money to bring my account within the new margin rates, I would not be able to do so by 5pm tomorrow because TDA has a 3 day holding period on funds. So the option for those over margined will only be to liquidate/margin call instead of depositing more $ to be in compliance....
I put in a request ticket with TDA:

Sean from TDA says "Wow, you bring up some good points, thank you for contacting me- I'll forward onto our guys that set margin rates and requirements"

YOU'RE WELCOME SEAN.
  • #150,784
  • May 3, 2017 3:51pm May 3, 2017 3:51pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} No wonder he's a cocky sob... Similar entry yes, I think you're correct there (unless Le Pen win). But even if so, the natural stop would be the same in either case so why not risk it now? Easy for me to play devils advocate, from my perch 100 pips up.....I think you're right on for your analysis, just don't want you to miss your trigger. Even still there's the lagging trigger, so waiting will increase risk, but maybe decrease initial risk depending on your perspective.
Problem with the lagger is it is down by (my) ST flip and in neutral that's a no go.
Still got today's close (where will that break close if we get a break?) and, more importantly NFP flow to the W close.
Plenty of data to bring in to the decision making (overthinking) process......BUT.....if your outlook is sell, just sell! (is my general feeling about all of it)
  • #150,785
  • May 3, 2017 3:54pm May 3, 2017 3:54pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Problem with the lagger is it is down by (my) ST flip and in neutral that's a no go. Still got today's close (where will that break close if we get a break?) and, more importantly NFP flow to the W close. Plenty of data to bring in to the decision making (overthinking) process......BUT.....if your outlook is sell, just sell! (is my general feeling about all of it)
@goose & fadhl

Yes, my posts are assuming inline NFP, which will validate FOMC today, and align with hike in June, a flop or overshoot with help either side respectively in my opinion. Nothing to do until (unless your trigger is triggered)

Your lagger trade wouldnt be too awful for midterm, unacceptable for short term agreed
  • #150,786
  • May 3, 2017 4:05pm May 3, 2017 4:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} unable to respond atm.. look at friday's target for st.. or usdx 101.52 for deeper.
Got it:

Quote
time is getting short.. need some movement soon to get 0864

Close to my target. Still I see it go deeper technically but time will be of the essence. Should happen before the weekend if all goes well. I guess the old rule still counts for something "don't be a dick for a tick"... so I'll get my close button ready.
  • #150,787
  • May 3, 2017 4:05pm May 3, 2017 4:05pm
Euro rolling at 1.088x (any surprise there @sisse? ).

Actively tracking Euro for short entry. Would like to get a test 1.090x to pull the trigger but won't wait much.
  • #150,788
  • May 3, 2017 4:16pm May 3, 2017 4:16pm
Quoting goosebone
Euro rolling at 1.088x (any surprise there @sisse? ). Actively tracking Euro for short entry. Would like to get a test 1.090x to pull the trigger but won't wait much.
You are enjoying this one, aren't you? ...wont say anything else regarding this flow until we are done and we can complete the [checks] but I think you now realise how important and powerful is to be in synch with the market even if the side you choose for your trades is wrong at the end....good job so far in the thread.

I just want to make 2 point related the FA part of your comments that I think you are not right and more importantly you and some around will benefit:
Quoting goosebone
FED Hike >>-- Direct to 1.06x with short layover at 1.073x Max. ext. 1.052x
(This makes for a direct mid term play. All other Fed outcomes is Short Term flow that likely leads into MT opportunity depending on NFP reaction and weekend news)

FED Hawk (balance sheet talk, change in "gradual", etc.)>>-- Direct 1.092x-->1.082x-->into 1.082x/1.087x chop til NFP Max ext. 1.078x

FED Dove (focus on recent flop numbers, emphasis on "gradual", etc.)>>-- Test of 1.096x-->into 1.091x/1.096x chop til NFP Max ext....

  1. I think you are not fully understanding what dovish/hawkish mean in term of rates so let me simplify in a linear 2D chart some key concepts regarding rates and monetary policy:

TBC in the next post...need to make the charts....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,789
  • May 3, 2017 4:30pm May 3, 2017 4:30pm
Are you guys factoring the probability of hike in june which exceeded 70% and peaked to 90% as a done deal !
Everyone should know by now how to trade expectations and how to trade facts so don't be the lagger in the crowd.
I agree with most of the views here concerning a ST/MT setup in Euro TA wise but when I look at the +++ and --- FA side it doesn't match .
I would rather miss the first trigger to go short and scale in on the way down ...
@goose we argued the bias yesterday and I said in case it doesn't break up it's going to be a choppy and limited ride down [1.079x].
bottom line , closes under 1.087x are needed and/or momentum from us dollar and/or increasing risk from elections ahead of weekend.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,790
  • May 3, 2017 4:31pm May 3, 2017 4:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} nope.. once 112.19+ was hit.. i was out.. 112.76/.77 may provide a little R.. if not 113.38/.39... if you look to the left it has some old broken s/r there too.. u may be able to pick a few up there.. atm the high is 112.70
i didnt have a smaller setup to help but thus far it made a nice scalp..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,791
  • May 3, 2017 4:43pm May 3, 2017 4:43pm
Quoting hoom
Are you guys factoring the probability of hike in june which exceeded 70% and peaked to 90% as a done deal ! Everyone should know by now how to trade expectations and how to trade facts so don't be the lagger in the crowd. I agree with most of the views here concerning a ST/MT setup in Euro TA wise but when I look at the +++ and --- FA side it doesn't match . I would rather miss the first trigger to go short and scale in on the way down ... @goose we argued the bias yesterday and I said in case it doesn't break up it's going to be a choppy and limited...
Are you still short from the last swing high? I remember you got a near perfect entry there but dont remember where you got out. Did you take it with sisse around 1.068x or thereabouts? That was a good trade.
  • #150,792
  • May 3, 2017 5:04pm May 3, 2017 5:04pm
Quoting hoom
Are you guys factoring the probability of hike in june which exceeded 70% and peaked to 90% as a done deal ! .
Im not. Maybe you are looking at the chart I posted there on expectations. I was just thinking to keep adding to that at important times to track it since its relevant from here til then.
  • #150,793
  • May 3, 2017 5:05pm May 3, 2017 5:05pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Are you still short from the last swing high? I remember you got a near perfect entry there but dont remember where you got out. Did you take it with sisse around 1.068x or thereabouts? That was a good trade.
I guess you're talking about my entry when euro made a gap up and a rally to 1.090x ...at that time I said that a gap and full extension [which btw you asked me what does a full ext mean ] is a trigger in my books ...I unloaded it all prior to the election weekend [was a nice ride indeed ]. Tracking UJ mostly after that , risk on is paying well in the meantime.

for the sake of the discussion I will choose a random Lmt buy this time against the crowd here if I may say
both trades have same r:r , let's see how it pans out in the next few hours as stops are at unhealthy/irrelevant lvls .

LMT buy 1.088x TP 1.104x // SL 1.084x r:r // 1:4

-----------------------------------

LMT Sell 1.088x TP 1.072x // SL 1.092x r:r // 1:4

Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,794
  • Edited 6:46pm May 3, 2017 5:14pm | Edited 6:46pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} I guess you're talking about my entry when euro made a gap up and a rally to 1.090x ...at that time I said that a gap and full extension [which btw you asked me what does a full ext mean ] is a trigger in my books ...I unloaded it all prior to the election weekend [was a nice ride indeed ]. Tracking UJ mostly after that , risk on is paying well in the meantime. for the sake of the discussion I will choose a random Lmt buy this time against the crowd here if I may say both trades have same r:r , let's see how it pans out in the next...
Widen both those stops by 15 points and ill take the other side of your wager.

LMT buy 1.0885 TP 1.1035 // SL 1.0835 r:r //1:3
-----------------------------------
LMT Sell 1.0885 TP 1.0735 // SL 1.0935 r:r //1:3
  • #150,795
  • May 3, 2017 5:19pm May 3, 2017 5:19pm
Quoting sisse
....I think you are not fully understanding what dovish/hawkish mean in term of rates so let me simplify in a linear 2D chart some key concepts regarding rates and monetary policy: TBC in the next post...need to make the charts.... sisse
FED Hike [ok]

FED Hawk (balance sheet talk, change in "gradual", etc.) [ok]

FED Dove (focus on recent flop numbers, emphasis on "gradual", etc.)[why]

FED Neutral/Dovish (inline w/ expectations spelled out in last post)[why]


+++++ ADVANCED FA POST ALERT +++++


I just want to focus on the FA and monetary part of this not in your flow calls.

--> You need to understand what Dovish and Hawkish means in monetary policy terms in context of the rates cycle. Forget about the implications for trading for a minute.

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==> In a nutshell the whole rates cycle is for hawks pushing rates higher to push inflation and prevent economic overheat and doves pushing rates lower to incentive growth and full employment and prevent inflation getting out of control. When both sides are in agreement we are in monetary policy equilibrium with 'full employment' and inflation on target.

==> A dovish CB implies that the decision is (from the extreme) is/was--> rates cuts --> miss employment/macro targets -> undershoot in inflation MT targets

==> A hawkish CB implies that the decision is (from the extreme) is/was--> hikes --> overshoot in employment/macro targets -> overshoot in inlflation MT targets.

Obviously I am oversimplifying the whole chapter on monetary policy but you get the point of what markets are tracking in general.

==> There is very little room for interpretations most of the time in a FED/ECB etc decision as all the numbers, technical details and minutes are publicly available. Seldom there is room for divergences and most of the time there is a market consensus on what a CB is doing.

==>The whole point of CBs (any CB) making monetary policy is to transmit inflation expectations to the markets and the state of the economy so business and investors can make proper decisions (e.g. if you have a business/financial background you will know that the discount rate is the key primary variable in calculating net present value, free cash flows, IRR and etc).

With that in mind, lets go back to today for the FED.

--> There is absolutely zero dovish expectations even for the most doves of the doves as for today. Sure the discussion can be if the hike in June/July or when the balance sheet adjustment will start or if the next Quarter expectations of inflation and employment targets are on target or overshooting !!!!....

--> None of this, not even the most dovish of the doves in the FOMC is arguing about concerns on inflation or structural macro problems. None of them is talking about cutting rates or implementing QE etc ...

The only thing we are tracking is if we hike June/July or not. Not hiking is NOT dovish at all.

There is nothing dovish in play as per today. We are arguably entering in monetary policy equilibrium (check the chart above) and thats why (as we discussed many times last year) hikes and RMT will start losing impact in Dollar and start shifting towards Equities. 'Equilibrium' can last months but usually years if the economy is not mismanaged (...can you see the risks of the DT fiscal blow out...thats for another discussion).

To wrap up, don't confuse 'less' hawkish or irrelevant with dovish. There is nothing dovish as per today in any front in the US.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,796
  • May 3, 2017 5:30pm May 3, 2017 5:30pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} FED Hike [ok] FED Hawk (balance sheet talk, change in "gradual", etc.) [ok] FED Dove (focus on recent flop numbers, emphasis on "gradual", etc.)[why] FED Neutral/Dovish (inline w/ expectations spelled out in last post)[why] +++++ ADVANCED FA POST ALERT +++++ I just want to focus on the FA and monetary part of this not in your flow calls. --> You need to understand what Dovish and Hawkish means in monetary policy terms in context of the rates cycle. Forget about the implications for trading for a minute. {image} ==> In a nutshell the whole...
Ok. Makes sense. Instead of the term "dove" I should be stating it more like "less hawkish". In the post quoted I meant "dove" to mean less chance of June hike. I saw it as a more relative, contextual term but I can see how actually that misconstrues the meaning of it.

Good to be clear.
  • #150,797
  • May 3, 2017 5:31pm May 3, 2017 5:31pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Ok. Makes sense. Instead of the term "dove" I should be stating it more like "less hawkish". In the post quoted I meant "dove" to mean less chance of June hike. I saw it as a more relative, contextual term but I can see how actually that misconstrues the meaning of it. Good to be clear.
Yes sure but despite the semantics the implications for trading are huge !!!...Thats why I am raising this point .

The more you get in synch with markets and start understanding the FA underlying (in this case monetary policy) you will realise that answer hold one of the most important keys to consistent direction and analysis (...early hints for those who ask ...how and why do you change outlooks live or 'out of the blue' and etc without even looking at TA, etc, etc)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,798
  • May 3, 2017 5:48pm May 3, 2017 5:48pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes sure but despite the semantics the implications for trading are huge !!!...Thats why I am raising this point . The more you get in synch with markets and start understanding the FA underlying (in this case monetary policy) you will realise that answer hold one of the most important keys to consistent direction and analysis (...early hints for those who ask ...how and why do you change outlooks live or 'out of the blue' and etc without even looking at TA, etc, etc) sisse
Right. Didnt just catch the semantics part there. Its the big picture you charted that my misuse of the terms shows i didnt have in mind.
Its not relative or contextual (hawk v dove). They are more like coordinates on the chart you put up. Know where you are is good advice at all times.
Much appreciated input as always.
Oh, and yes I am enjoying this one. Win or lose on any trade I take with it.
  • #150,799
  • May 3, 2017 11:19pm May 3, 2017 11:19pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Right. Didnt just catch the semantics part there. Its the big picture you charted that my misuse of the terms shows i didnt have in mind. Its not relative or contextual (hawk v dove). They are more like coordinates on the chart you put up. Know where you are is good advice at all times. Much appreciated input as always. Oh, and yes I am enjoying this one. Win or lose on any trade I take with it.
unloading that balance sheet can do the opposite of headlines/ atm still hunting 101.52 usdx. not looking great but the reward decent.. my stops green
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,800
  • May 3, 2017 11:38pm May 3, 2017 11:38pm
hoping fed can hold off selling assets a while longer. atm eu at 0895.. it may provide R now.. we will c.
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