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The Really Useless Thread

  • #150,761
  • Edited 11:24am May 3, 2017 9:01am | Edited 11:24am
My expectations for the FED mtg are for a neutral/dovish message that is pretty well buried in the detail of the statement. I dont believe a large market reaction to it is on the docket today. There are certainly ways for that to happen but what looks more likely to me is little to no messaging from the FOMC.
Things to watch for in the statement:

Inflation: After the recent PCE lower number any change in FED language around inflation will be important. They know that of course and will likely not make changes to the "continues to run slightly below target" type of wording on core inflation expectations. I would read no comment as neutral/dovish.

Employment: Recent NFP flop, moreover how the FED contextualizes it is really what should be in focus here. A mention of the labor market's relative strength despite that flop would be somewhat revealing as would, to the flipside, a more hopeful "one off" take on it since that leaves plenty of room for dissent. I would read no comment as neutral/dovish.

Growth: I will watch for "seasonality" verbage on this as it may point to FED putting less weight on the crap number printed for Q1. More of the "one off" context. I would read no comment as neutral/dovish.

Reinvestment: This part is both complicated and simple. Complicated because markets want clues to how and when something no one really understands (or if it even matters) will happen. Simple because, in my opinion, none of those clues will be provided in any real way today and talking heads can go back to waxing philosophical about it and that's all we really need to know for now. I would read no comment as neutral/dovish.

For clarification: By 'no comment' I mean no clear and present shift from March language.

So that's my less than vibrant take on what I think will be a less than vibrant FED meeting. Who knows, could be a shocker today. But at the moment I'm planning on saving my popcorn for June.
  • #150,762
  • May 3, 2017 10:59am May 3, 2017 10:59am
That was it for the European and US morning sessions. Gold and commodities the only one on the move while the rest of the board making a stop over for the FED today.

On the UK, politicians hijacking the headlines with insults, posturing and what have you, nothing worth mentioning for trading but the usual populism, nationalism, aggressive non sense for election and local consumption. A shameful circus like usual but the unaware masses and media will enhance it and make a feast with it.

As much T May wants to be in the headlines, we have more important news and reports coming for the next few days. FED/NFP and France will rule the board from the close today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,763
  • May 3, 2017 11:27am May 3, 2017 11:27am
Hi guys, was busy with holidays and moving from one place to other sitting @ almost 10500 feet from sea level .. no network nothing at all ... Just got today internet on phone ... Any ways coming to trading
Gap not closed with a very solid resistance @1.104x already in with no more new entries until 1.104x ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #150,764
  • Edited 12:13pm May 3, 2017 11:59am | Edited 12:13pm
,...and here we for the FED.

--> on the fundamental side:

Expecting very little today. Tracking any soft hints on inflation but nothing really is in play.

Market wise what is in play for FEDay come from triggering the usual 'time decay' effect for next hikes.

We peaked at 62% odds for hikes next meeting and went down back to 40% after the NFP flop. Today we are sitting around 50%. Because the latest softening round in US numbers NFP could trigger RMT one more time from the US.

-->on the technical side:

Very little in play too. Only dollar is sitting at key areas. Losing 99.3x for the FED/NFP/France combo will cause collateral damage in MT uptrend and will have significant implications for the summer and beyond.

Us Equities trading at irrelevant levels focusing more on the good earning season rather than in macro factors, and will remain so until further macro data and especially until risk is clear from Europe.

Eyeballing the same ATH test with good NFP numbers... Anything else is chop till risk is cleared.

Gold already on the move and pretty much completing a full retrace even before the FED. Obviously we have the scheduled French risk play that will weight heavier for the next few days in gold over an expected uneventful FED. Same levels in play and it choose your poison time with NFP for a zizgag play with France.

-- >for the actual flows (euro only).

I will abstain of details as @ goosebone is in full control of the Euro board this week.

In general, crystal clear and very simple maps in play.....I would only remind/highlight that we also have ST and MT swing in play at the same time... so forest and trees will get messier and blur if you are not careful.

I already have all what I need so GL all today and especially for the NFP/weekly combo...

@ goosebone the floor is yours to call the complete flow options. Try to avoid fluffing aroubd with doubt comments and keep it in one line a,b,c one liners with expectations direct/zigzag/chop and areas for entry(ies)/main target(s) and max risk...

GL the actual news shouldnt bring surprises so it will be still hard to publicly forecast a call like this but I think it will be a very valuable experience for you and all of us reading.. .

Let's go.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,765
  • May 3, 2017 12:19pm May 3, 2017 12:19pm
So for the FED. This is where we are mid term in my charts.

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And this is short term area.

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In any case you see we are grinding to the extreme (1,097) of the ST range = MT flip!

Since we are in ST neutral outlook its choose your poison to trade into the middle. And since we are in MT sell and choose your poison as well = the ST neutral is just to be considered as a temporaty break before the MT factors take over unless we change the MT outlook. So to trade into the middle can be seen as a prepositioning on the first ST wave for MT break down if it ever happens.

However with election weekend it looks pretty risky so I guess we will need some good combination of FED + NFP to jump in and hope that the positive reaction on Macro winning is gonna be limited as I expect as his victory is widely expected. So here is my map of flows for the FED:

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Think market expects a muted FED staying on its previous analysis and looking through the recent somewhat weaker growth/inflation/NFP. I expect that as well.

Therefore:

A. super dovish FED would shortcircuit the market and given the lvls it could violently spike above the extreme ST lvl with direct flow.
B. inline/marginally dovish: its a non event with just a muted continnuation to 1,097x via a small zig-zag flow
C. hawkish FED: firm outlook, Q1 just a temporary factor as usual etc.; =) soft trigger to 1,080x via a zig-zag flow
D. hike: again a complete shortcircuiting of the markets. one way above top of ST range and maybe even to flip with direct flow.

Any comment and analysis welcomed
  • #150,766
  • May 3, 2017 12:41pm May 3, 2017 12:41pm
For Today's FED meeting (nothing beyond):

FED Hike >>-- Direct to 1.06x with short layover at 1.073x Max. ext. 1.052x
(This makes for a direct mid term play. All other Fed outcomes is Short Term flow that likely leads into MT opportunity depending on NFP reaction and weekend news)

FED Hawk (balance sheet talk, change in "gradual", etc.)>>-- Direct 1.092x-->1.082x-->into 1.082x/1.087x chop til NFP Max ext. 1.078x

FED Dove (focus on recent flop numbers, emphasis on "gradual", etc.)>>-- Test of 1.096x-->into 1.091x/1.096x chop til NFP Max ext. 1.100x

FED Neutral/Dovish (inline w/ expectations spelled out in last post)>>-- Tight chop inside 1.092x/1.088x til NFP Max range 1.094x/1.085x


Got no time today to put the levels above on the charts but should be pretty obvious where I am at from the above text.

Not expecting much today myself but Good Luck all trading the news.
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  • #150,767
  • May 3, 2017 1:09pm May 3, 2017 1:09pm
Inline with expectations....we'll review goosbone post on the close...


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,768
  • Edited 1:48pm May 3, 2017 1:35pm | Edited 1:48pm
Three notables and one caveat:

"The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term." >>--Inline/Hint of Hawk

"The FOMC did not address the issue of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet">>--Inline/Slight Dove

"Adjustments from previous statements indicated that Fed officials judged at this week's two-day meeting that "economic activity slowed" while "household spending rose only modestly.">>--This part is Dovish to me. It's a comment that points to GDP flop that could have been made less pointed, or appear less concerned if they wanted to suggest the number is an outlier like they appear to be saying in other parts of the statement. Kind of a wash though, when taking into account the use of "transitory" in the first quote

Caveat: one or more quotes above are not directly from the statement so they come with whatever sensationalist motives the authors may bring (as discussed with sisse after March FED.)

Taken as a whole, it appears net Neutral/Dovish as expected.

"FED Neutral/Dovish (inline w/ expectations spelled out in last post)>>-- Tight chop inside 1.092x/1.088x til NFP Max range 1.094x/1.085x"

...is my guess from here. Next stop NFP.
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  • #150,769
  • May 3, 2017 1:40pm May 3, 2017 1:40pm
0914 probably some R now.. but to get a runner dropping -0895 with closes is what my eu short needs.
s/o uj earlier this week..

that's counter what fed said about no raise . so be careful if close says different. if raise was backed in and not delivered
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,770
  • May 3, 2017 1:54pm May 3, 2017 1:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
0914 probably some R now.. but to get a runner dropping -0895 with closes is what my eu short needs. s/o uj earlier this week.. that's counter what fed said about no raise . so be careful if close says different. if raise was backed in and not delivered {image}
Hi Gator,
closed my longs at 112.06. Are you considering a short anytime soon or gonna wait.?
  • #150,771
  • May 3, 2017 2:24pm May 3, 2017 2:24pm
Tell France I'm only going to say this once: Im calling "Russian Intervention" if election results arent in by start of Billions Season 2 finale Sunday night.
  • #150,772
  • May 3, 2017 2:37pm May 3, 2017 2:37pm
Quoting goosebone
Tell France I'm only going to say this once: Im calling "Russian Intervention" if election results arent in by start of Billions Season 2 finale Sunday night.
It's interesting that Le Pen has changed her tune in order to court more voters, interesting like Hillary interesting (will do/say anything for the vote). I suspect, her win will be the only thing to cause a bigly move on the Euro* side- as the Macron win is not only expected, but essentially priced in after round 1.

Macron seems like a rich douche to me- which probably makes him seem like a rich douche to people in France. I'm thinking Le Pen has a better chance than the polls suggest....that and the terrorism attacks have almost assuredly shaped a large group of voters.

This is more or less my thoughts/answer to our discussion via PM to maybe open up some other opinions to the thread. If you get your natural trigger, perhaps consider keeping the natural trigger but using less leverage. Another gap up is doubtful.. but a Le Pen win will pay a lot of money to those short over the weekend, Macron win at worst will stop out at the top of the range.

I say that because you said your map was crystal clear, but you seem to be hesitating taking the trade due to being burnt recently by French election. Not to say you should take the trade, but that you already have your plan laid out....
  • #150,773
  • May 3, 2017 2:55pm May 3, 2017 2:55pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Hi Gator, closed my longs at 112.06. Are you considering a short anytime soon or gonna wait.?
nope.. once 112.19+ was hit.. i was out.. 112.76/.77 may provide a little R.. if not 113.38/.39... if you look to the left it has some old broken s/r there too.. u may be able to pick a few up there.. atm the high is 112.70
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,774
  • May 3, 2017 3:04pm May 3, 2017 3:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} nope.. once 112.19+ was hit.. i was out..
Ah yea, if i remember correctly you put a buy stop around that price. Or may be not.
  • #150,775
  • May 3, 2017 3:09pm May 3, 2017 3:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
0914 probably some R now.. but to get a runner dropping -0895 with closes is what my eu short needs. s/o uj earlier this week.. that's counter what fed said about no raise . so be careful if close says different. if raise was backed in and not delivered {image}
they snuck one in.. next hour better..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,776
  • May 3, 2017 3:10pm May 3, 2017 3:10pm
Quoting NMZee
{quote} Ah yea, if i remember correctly you put a buy stop around that price. Or may be not.
yep.. s/o that one.. and smaller one b4.. some R wouldnt be a surprise in those areas. .. but i really dont have a st target to give a reward using r/r
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #150,777
  • Edited 3:29pm May 3, 2017 3:19pm | Edited 3:29pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} It's interesting that Le Pen has changed her tune in order to court more voters, interesting like Hillary interesting (will do/say anything for the vote). I suspect, her win will be the only thing to cause a bigly move on the Euro* side- as the Macron win is not only expected, but essentially priced in after round 1. Macron seems like a rich douche to me- which probably makes him seem like a rich douche to people in France. I'm thinking Le Pen has a better chance than the polls suggest....that and the terrorism attacks have almost assuredly...
Good points.
Changes in LePen's rhetoric look desperate in any language. (Immaterial, but Macron gets every kid's fantasy brownie points from me for marrying his teacher.)

Map has two views to consider. A fact I ignored going to round 1.
TA its lined up if the D close is under 910.
Is it lined up with regard to FA? I stated a few days ago I lean towards all bets are in towards risk cleared after round 1.
Can we be sure? I dont have enough experience to pick a firm side on that just yet. The yes we can vote is one that says natural stops for entry here will contain any risk on flow coming in from the expected result. Its also a vote that theres no chance for a similar entry after the open. (otherwise why risk it now?).
I havent made a call on this yet but I will.

I have found the fine line between sticking to a plan, and being flexible enough with a dynamic, changing environment is a tough one to find consistently.
  • #150,778
  • May 3, 2017 3:31pm May 3, 2017 3:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} they snuck one in.. next hour better.. {image}
Yeah well done, I was thinking about your post when I saw that close... looking good atm at 08866. What are you aiming for anyway in eurusd? I have my TP set at 1.08700. I opened at daily pivot but got spiked out, reentered lower unfortunately at 1.0905.
  • #150,779
  • May 3, 2017 3:33pm May 3, 2017 3:33pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Good points. Changes in LePen's rhetoric look desperate in any language. (Immaterial, but Macron gets every kid's fantasy brownie points from me for marrying his teacher.) Map has two views to consider. A fact I ignored going to round 1. TA its lined up if the D close is under 910. Is it lined up with regard to FA? I stated a few days ago I lean towards all bets are in towards risk cleared after round 1. Can we be sure? I dont have enough experience to pick a firm side on that just yet. The yes we can vote is one that says natural stops...
No wonder he's a cocky sob...

Similar entry yes, I think you're correct there (unless Le Pen win). But even if so, the natural stop would be the same in either case so why not risk it now? Easy for me to play devils advocate, from my perch 100 pips up.....I think you're right on for your analysis, just don't want you to miss your trigger. Even still there's the lagging trigger, so waiting will increase risk, but maybe decrease initial risk depending on your perspective.
  • #150,780
  • May 3, 2017 3:34pm May 3, 2017 3:34pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Yeah well done, I was thinking about your post when I saw that close... looking good atm at 08866. What are you aiming for anyway in eurusd? I have my TP set at 1.08700. I opened at daily pivot but got spiked out, reentered lower unfortunately at 1.0905.
unable to respond atm.. look at friday's target for st.. or usdx 101.52 for deeper.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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