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  • #150,741
  • May 2, 2017 3:35pm May 2, 2017 3:35pm
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} break/retest. {image}
AUDNZD
I have shorted at 1.087 SL at 1.094 TP1 at 1.074
  • #150,742
  • May 2, 2017 4:01pm May 2, 2017 4:01pm
A very decent day across the board with all markets in perfect synch.

Highlights come from Dollar that is cook and looks 'al dente' for the next swing while Oil losing foot with risk fading away in the last few days. It keeps struggling, good numbers in Europe will help but China is starting to cough and US numbers are starting to point to a bit softer Quarter. NFP will give the go ahead in that front.

@goosebone ...on the Euro we are rolling with a xxx xxxx before the FED. Maps xxx xxxx for tomorrow ...so not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,743
  • Edited 4:26pm May 2, 2017 4:03pm | Edited 4:26pm
Quoting goosebone
Eyeing the old saw 1.091x for NY roll.
Checking that one off the wishlist. Interested to see what happens from here. I still need a confirmed break below it now to think short entry. BUT.... all that is strictly from TA perspective and TA only. It doesnt seem too bright to me to be trading anything exclusively using TA especially on a week with this much news. I know many would argue with that and I dont want to start anything here about it. Suffice it to say, personally, I will need to see more than just a standard price trigger. And even then, holding through the election weekend, any position long or short can come back to bite you (trust me) The gap risk is of a different sort in Round 2 from Round 1 but it's still got teeth so it would take some special circumstances for me to want to hold through. Anyway, guess I'm getting way ahead of myself here.


"@goosebone ...on the Euro we are rolling with a xxx xxxx before the FED. Maps xxx xxxx for tomorrow ...so not much to see or do but same levels, same trades, same all."

Well I dont know what you drive but im rolling in a '64 Impala SS 283
The daily close is neutral but stinks of break down.
And my maps are clear as a bell.
  • #150,744
  • May 2, 2017 4:12pm May 2, 2017 4:12pm
Quoting sisse
A very decent day across the board with all markets in perfect synch. Highlights come from Dollar that is cook and looks 'al dente' for the next swing while Oil losing foot with risk fading away in the last few days. It keeps struggling, good numbers in Europe will help but China is starting to cough and US numbers are starting to point to a bit softer Quarter. NFP will give the go ahead in that front. @goosebone ...on the Euro we are rolling with a xxx xxxx before the FED. Maps xxx xxxx for tomorrow...
even though risk is fading [short term], YEN looks vulnerable and toppish around 112.xx handle , Japan economy having a slight boost and US data getting softer .
TA wise , YEN broke down a very strong Support area 112.5x-111.5x during March , after going as low as 108.1x a strong pullback happened via risk on and now retesting the breakout area so a short from here has good potential r:r wise . what are your thoughts ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,745
  • May 2, 2017 4:23pm May 2, 2017 4:23pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Checking that one off the wishlist. Interested to see what happens from here. I still need a confirmed break below it now to think short entry. BUT.... all that is strictly from TA perspective and TA only. It doesnt seem too bright to me to be trading anything exclusively using TA especially on a week with this much news. I know many would argue with that and I dont want to start anything here about it. Suffice it to say, personally, I will need to see more than just a standard price trigger. And even then, holding through the election weekend,...
dude everytime I read your post I fall off my chair from laughing

the first xxx xxxx is slightly bullish second is crystal clear
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,746
  • May 2, 2017 4:28pm May 2, 2017 4:28pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} dude everytime I read your post I fall off my chair from laughing the first xxx xxxx is slightly bullish second is crystal clear
Glad to be service
I like a puzzle as much as the next kid. But I dont see slight bull anywhere in the close myself.
  • #150,747
  • Edited 4:45pm May 2, 2017 4:34pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} even though risk is fading [short term], YEN looks vulnerable and toppish around 112.xx handle , Japan economy having a slight boost and US data getting softer . TA wise , YEN broke down a very strong Support area 112.5x-111.5x during March , after going as low as 108.1x a strong pullback happened via risk on and now retesting the breakout area so a short from here has good potential r:r wise . what are your thoughts ?
Yen* is setting to be the currency of the year for trading.

--> Risk will come back naturally right after the FED and before the weekly close for French elections. Further risk ST only via DT tweeter BS that will get softer and softer without some actual action.

--> Markets are starting to get use to the noise and reading DT random outburst in the foreign policy side. He will need to keep it quiet or start making louder sounds and actually doing something [stupid in this case] as otherwise the tweet trading mode will only reach the unaware masses but completely fade from market trading radar for the foreseeable future.

--> However, Yen is caught in between a big unexpected storm in the MT and LT. NK, Russia, China and US completely abandoning (from security to trade) them in the middle of the woods packed with wolves.

--> In order of priorities I will say ride the Dollar side first until is cleared for the spring with ST risk for the ebb and flow of the legs. For the MT/LT Yen* is aligning for a massacre if things go wrong in the geopolitical and free trade front. Will discuss in detail later once we clear the FED/French risk combo first.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,748
  • May 2, 2017 5:13pm May 2, 2017 5:13pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote}...I like a puzzle as much as the next kid. But I dont see slight bull anywhere in the close myself.
why don't u see slight bull anywhere . daily close is the highest since Trump got elected also we have HL/HH w/ bull in full control above 1.087x .
you said
Quote
stinks of break down
I see that in risk on environment , Euro is looking for a reason to crack 1.1000 not head down as it will be the path of most resistance.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,749
  • May 2, 2017 5:18pm May 2, 2017 5:18pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} why don't u see slight bull anywhere . daily close is the highest since Trump got elected also we have HL/HH w/ bull in full control above 1.087x . you said {quote} I see that in risk on environment , Euro is looking for a reason to crack 1.1000 not head down as it will be the path of most resistance.
Crack 950 and I might be with you. But in this case:
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  • #150,750
  • May 2, 2017 5:19pm May 2, 2017 5:19pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} why don't u see slight bull anywhere . daily close is the highest since Trump got elected also we have HL/HH w/ bull in full control above 1.087x . you said {quote} I see that in risk on environment , Euro is looking for a reason to crack 1.1000 not head down as it will be the path of most resistance.
of course , we need to factor us dollar in the driver seat as for tomorrow and NFP but even that side of equation is getting a bit off track from the super positive data and macro outlook. so all in all , map is like this 1.079x>1.096x>1.105x intermediate stops 1.084x
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,751
  • May 2, 2017 5:19pm May 2, 2017 5:19pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Crack 950 and I might be with you. But in this case: {image}
that meme never gets old does it ! lol
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,752
  • May 2, 2017 5:23pm May 2, 2017 5:23pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} that meme never gets old does it ! lol
Its the village bicycle. Everyone gets a ride.
  • #150,753
  • May 2, 2017 5:27pm May 2, 2017 5:27pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Crack 950 and I might be with you. But in this case: {image}
of course the resistance on the upside is tough especially for the lvls in play as I pointed out in my last chart posted here link . 1.097x is a major lvl between macro bulls and bears , ECB end of QE expectations play add to that clearing what is left from election risk side etc. you got the full recipe. so if it cant get through 1.095x and the bias is to the upside it doesnt mean it's going to fall hard if at all which translates into a choppy range in most cases .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #150,754
  • Edited May 3, 2017 5:51am May 2, 2017 7:29pm | Edited May 3, 2017 5:51am
Quoting hoom
{quote} of course the resistance on the upside is tough especially for the lvls in play as I pointed out in my last chart posted here link . 1.097x is a major lvl between macro bulls and bears , ECB end of QE expectations play add to that clearing what is left from election risk side etc. you got the full recipe. so if it cant get through 1.095x and the bias is to the upside it doesnt mean it's going to fall hard if at all which translates into a choppy range in most...
That bias is whats in question right at this point in time I suppose. Not existentially. Just scheduling.
When i mentioned no real signal on my MT chart (yet) it was a break of the1.097x (1.0964) level you mentioned that I had in mind. Not at all to say I'd just jump in there, but it would have me looking hard at what happens next.
  • #150,755
  • Edited 8:28pm May 2, 2017 8:12pm | Edited 8:28pm
Any of you follow Elliot wave theory? Would like your thoughts if so. I've been dabbling in it since sisse has mentioned the market waves....seems to me dollar and eu are both very structured 1-2-3-4-5 waves.

This would actually line the "C" leg up with the dollar norm @ 101.52, i think thats the one gator is shooting for as well
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  • #150,756
  • May 3, 2017 1:26am May 3, 2017 1:26am
Quoting sisse
{quote}However, Yen is caught in between a big unexpected storm in the MT and LT. NK, Russia, China and US completely abandoning (from security to trade) them in the middle of the woods packed with wolves. -->
can you expand on this? what's different this time from the eternal japan economic spiral? reaching point of no return?

thanks
  • #150,757
  • May 3, 2017 1:31am May 3, 2017 1:31am
A lot of people looking at charts suffer from Pareidolia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia

PS Looks like Europe is really gonna screw poor old Britain over Brexit; don't you just love a good divorce, it's nearly as exciting as watching Billions
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #150,758
  • Edited 4:47am May 3, 2017 4:36am | Edited 4:47am
...and that was pretty much it for the European session. All eyes in the US for the rest of the week. For today we have a quick and important reports with the opening to final intraday positioning for the FED and then will enter in no man land from the European close onwards till the FED.

sisse

Quoting mrcreosote
A lot of people looking at charts suffer from Pareidolia...screw poor old Britain over Brexit; don't you just love a good divorce, it's nearly as exciting as watching Billions
--> It's 'dick' (well not literally in this case) swing, chest beating, wave flagging, nationalistic BS noise mainly.

--> It appeals to the masses, especially those daily mailers and co. If you read the German article directly back to back and then compare with the headlines for national consumption in the UK...it takes less than 2 minutes to realise that 'hard divorce' keywords (whatever that means in this case) is just pure political BS posturing for local consumption in the UK election.

--> Latest proper political survey I got access last Friday, show that pressing on the nationalistic, anti Europe, they want to 'screw us' headline will lock her and the Tories between +15% / 25% increase on popularity/votes on those in the middle....basically don't mess with the Empire speech always works for most countries in the world in the short term. If you want to avoid taking decisions and grab power ...blame the outsider and cover yourself with the flag.

In practice and reality ...nothing new, nothing we didn't know before the vote. On the political front we are set for a clean sweep ST in election for a Quasi monopoly of power for the Tories at the cost of increasing xenophobia and isolationism for the MT/LT...

Quoting change
{quote} can you expand on this? what's different this time from the eternal japan economic spiral? reaching point of no return? thanks
I think we are about to enter into the point of no return. Too many short, mid and term factors are hitting/about to hit Japan at the same time. I personally think things have delayed because of the financial crisis first and then now with Brexit, DT and etc but dark clouds are aligning rather fast on top of Japan.

As we mentioned a few times, this nationalistic, aggressive, populist, protectionism wave will bring winners and mostly losers. Among the biggest one to lose foot is Japan as in the wrong place at the wrong time with wrong economic and demographic circumstances to hold any global negative wave...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #150,759
  • May 3, 2017 4:44am May 3, 2017 4:44am
Consolidation inside a narrow 100 pip range since the 1st round of the French election continues on the pair. The range has contained lots of Euro positive data from inflation to manufacturing and a marked downturn in Dollar and therefore normalization positive data.

If the FED statement is relatively hawkish today or at least not-dovish (probable outcome) we can discard alot of that and look to the likely sell the Euro news play for the 2nd round of the French election. It's looking like a decent asymmetrical play in that Le Pen winning will tank the currency even more than Macron sell the news.

Bund yields extended on pricing out risk after round 1 so between that and monetary policy divergence the topside will be increasingly capped while the floor for and potential room for benchmark treasury yields to move will be stronger pursuant to a non-Dovish FED.

It's all about selling a potential top of a range- as Chester and others increasingly suspect- or what could turn into a retrace for a continuation below 1.05. I'd like to see the highs get cleaned out ST and test 98.50 on DXY, maybe in slightly illiquid/event driven conditions.
  • #150,760
  • May 3, 2017 5:24am May 3, 2017 5:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yen* is....sisse
Maybe that's for next year..?
I see it heading for another LL bellow 100. mark..
Short term, for the next swing, 112.-112.70's is a decision area for 110. or 116.,
Gold didnt finished its bearish story either - looking for reversal just above 1400. Next swing wants 1310's as long as it stays above 1240
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