Disliked1 to 1 completed, looking for shorts in area of structure at 61.8 of AB=CD (please correct me if this is not AB=CD, I am a little unclear on the difference between AB=CD and ABCD). {image}Ignored
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
- #28,324
- May 1, 2017 11:20am May 1, 2017 11:20am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,636 Posts
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #28,325
- May 1, 2017 11:36am May 1, 2017 11:36am
{quote} Short - Bulls appear to have some strength, low RR. Let's see. {image}
- #28,326
- May 1, 2017 12:59pm May 1, 2017 12:59pm
- | Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts
{quote} Taken out immediately ... any holes in my analysis (other than strength of the bulls)?
Just my thought, I'm not an expert.
And easy on hindsight of course..
In the short term expectation was a NSL, so you could take the trade on that bearish rotation candle.
But I think the probablitity of a NSL was lowered by:
- longterm expectation NSH and short term expectation NSL not in line
- long term price already corrected between 61.8% and 78.6% and there was completion of an ABCD pattern. I would think at that point the correction might be complete and we're heading for that new longterm NSH
- in short term bulls corrected the last swing past 78.6%, which weakens the expectation of a NSL in the short term
Experts please correct me where I'm wrong
Grtz Peter
- #28,327
- May 1, 2017 2:42pm May 1, 2017 2:42pm
{quote} Hi Lundies10 Just my thought, I'm not an expert. And easy on hindsight of course.. In the short term expectation was a NSL, so you could take the trade on that bearish rotation candle. But I think the probablitity of a NSL was lowered by: - longterm expectation NSH and short term expectation NSL not in line - long term price already corrected between 61.8% and 78.6% and there was completion of an ABCD pattern. I would think at that point the correction might be complete and we're heading for that new longterm NSH - in short term bulls corrected...
. Thanks for the chat, happy trading.
- #28,328
- May 1, 2017 4:03pm May 1, 2017 4:03pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
{quote} Taken out immediately ... any holes in my analysis (other than strength of the bulls)?
But going deeper:
You had an ofc at the green, then price started holding major levels in the yellow as it climbed. Price also tried to correct at the harmonic pb (red) but eventually blew past it, saying that buying pressure may have a little more strength.
Then going out further:
Bounced at prior leg valley / prior close (thin red line). This was also the 618 of a larger pattern.
- #28,329
- May 1, 2017 4:05pm May 1, 2017 4:05pm
- | Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts
{quote}
* Peter, thanks for the explanation, I am still practicing all this. I suppose I have more research to do about patterns but I thought when a 1 to 1 completes, we expect price to come back to the 61.8 of the WHOLE swing, not just one leg of the 1 to 1 (or is that only in a Gartley?) which is why my entry was where it was.
*I did notice the LT NSH as an expectation but my attitude is "since I trade short term, I analyze short term and choose entries based on that analysis" but it seems like I should be analyzing them together? I think one...
But even if you had waited a little longer until the TP-level of 61.8% was reached, I don't think there is a rule that says price will change direction every time the 61.8% correction of the ABCD pattern is reached, is there? It might as well just continue its way (up in this case). Mr. Pip or other experts?
* I think it has to do with what Mr. Pip says about "situational awareness", being aware of your position in the whole (long term, short term, immediate.. Refer to his videos for in detail explanation
* Maybe some part of the decision making process is subjective, but most of it is objective. The factors you weigh against each other are objective. But if you have X factors 'for' and Y factors 'against' taking the trade, it's up to you to decide what weighs the most. I guess that comes with experience and may sometimes be a little subjective.
I don't think your trade was completely wrong, it just had a lower probability of success if you take everything into account.
And that is JUST my humble opinion of course
I'm only participating in this discussion to help others where I can and to learn from others!
Grtz
Peter
- #28,330
- May 1, 2017 4:11pm May 1, 2017 4:11pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
YM +9
LE +.9 total
YM faded after price failed at prior close and globex open. I wanted to hold until price hit my green line where I'd flip long, but it was having trouble getting lower so I bailed. Didn't manage this one too great.
Then price hit my level at the green where I was sitting with a limit. I didn't manage this one too great either and was taken out for be2.
LE tried my hand at a diff future today. I like the PA, looks fairly straightforward with less volatility however gives opportunity to make $$ so going to be experimenting with this one for a little while.
LE +.9 total
YM faded after price failed at prior close and globex open. I wanted to hold until price hit my green line where I'd flip long, but it was having trouble getting lower so I bailed. Didn't manage this one too great.
Then price hit my level at the green where I was sitting with a limit. I didn't manage this one too great either and was taken out for be2.
LE tried my hand at a diff future today. I like the PA, looks fairly straightforward with less volatility however gives opportunity to make $$ so going to be experimenting with this one for a little while.
- #28,331
- May 1, 2017 4:18pm May 1, 2017 4:18pm
- | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
YM
Bummed I didn't try to play this.
Bummed I didn't try to play this.
- #28,332
- May 1, 2017 4:20pm May 1, 2017 4:20pm
Thanks Jmezz and Peter - more studying is in order for me. Has anyone put together a list of factors that might provide a comprehensive "probability score?" ...Something like: the developing setup scores a 6/10 in probability. If not, I may start working on something 
. Or is that even realistic to accomplish? There are a lot of factors to keep your eye on eh. I'm done for today, thanks again for the company guys, see you tomorrow.
EDIT: I am finding myself skipping decent opportunities from time to time due to SL placement and the risk being too big for my rules (3% of account is max risk per trade). I currently trade 2 mini lots. Should I reduce lot size until I can afford to risk more? The larger SL range would make more setups approachable for me.
. Or is that even realistic to accomplish? There are a lot of factors to keep your eye on eh. I'm done for today, thanks again for the company guys, see you tomorrow.EDIT: I am finding myself skipping decent opportunities from time to time due to SL placement and the risk being too big for my rules (3% of account is max risk per trade). I currently trade 2 mini lots. Should I reduce lot size until I can afford to risk more? The larger SL range would make more setups approachable for me.
- #28,334
- May 1, 2017 7:34pm May 1, 2017 7:34pm
{quote} The big advantage of forex trading is the flexibility in position sizing. It should be really the other way around: stop distance -> position size (lot size) instead of lot size -> % risk -> max SL pips On futures you can not trade less than 1 contract, in other words, the margin requirements and tick values are quite high compared to forex. So on forex, you can risk a specific amount (dollar amount or account percentage) by adjusting your position size on each setup, regardless of stop loss size (distance in pips), thus also time frame...
.
{quote} Good advice, thanks. You're right I really should lower my risk per trade being so new and I will look into that. My broker unfortunately only allows mini (10,000) lots for spot. Positions smaller than 10k require commission (its high) so I would need too many points per trade to break even
There is no way to happiness , happiness is the way.
{quote} A failed NSH/NSL is when PA breaks the whole swing. In your case it retested the NSH. That in itself is not a failed NSH it just suggests weakness in the bulls. To answer your question. I've tried setups like this and I don't like them very much because even though the expectation looks weak it still plays out in the majority of times.
Yes sure i mean a retest of NSH/NSL, idea was to be break even at previous 38.2%, in my case i choose to tp1 +be at 38.20% and tp 2 @ 78.6% which give a nice R:R even for TP1, but ok thanks for your feedback i note this
There is no way to happiness , happiness is the way.
- #28,340
- May 2, 2017 7:28am May 2, 2017 7:28am
- | Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Trader | 1,121 Posts
Thanks Jmezz and Peter - more studying is in order for me. Has anyone put together a list of factors that might provide a comprehensive "probability score?" ...Something like: the developing setup scores a 6/10 in probability. If not, I may start working on something
At least that is how I see it and that's what I'm doing
Grtz Peter