The Really Useless Thread

I don't know. i just have entries and targets.
I suck at fundementals. Partly because i don't know what is priced in so i stick with the technicals.
For questions like these ask sisse or gator.

hear hear, I'm fine with that, if someone is posting something you don't want to see, use the 'ignore' function. I have a lot of names in the ignore list and mostly they went there because they posted drivel but also they might go if they post a lot of TA charts. The latter not a bad thing, just something I have little interest in anymore, as I don't use a lot of TA to trade options.

yes, perhaps....people been calling the end of the bond bull market more loudly lately.....when you consider most hedge funds not only don't beat the market indices but actually have a hard time staying above water, maybe the bar has been set pretty low. Meanwhile, TLT has dropped $20 in the last year, another year like that for bond bears could pay pretty well. TLT not the best bet but it does have liquid options.

Since that (balance sheet) revolution will be televised, broadcast, baked in quick, I wonder how much risk to price there is in it. And how much unknown goes with the fact that its never been done in these volumes before (aka the "Hold My Beer Factor"). Just thinking out loud about it again. I got no answers.

[quote=goosebone;9815217]@socrateez I'm not going to berate you ornever being annoyed by someone else's contribution, I give up my right to annoy everyone with mine. And thats not something I'm willing to give up. Make it what you want it to be by posting what you want posts to be like here. Everyone should do the same. There's competition thats all. That's not a bad thing. But if you want to win it, you won't get there by pointing at them and complaining about it.[/quote
Amen to that brother.briliantly put.

the stage is set for a perfect bull storm - if the Trump govt can deliver (even part of) the extremely juicy Wall Street candy, and the Fed takes foot off accelerator and lets the BS drain, we could see bonds fall and stocks rise this year and next bigly - just need the geopoli risks to fade, maybe a big if, maybe not - then maybe a bigger if is whether Trump can deliver. Hey if I knew what was going to happen I would definitely tell you.

EU giving 910 the glad eye for the D close. Will be tight.

candy and salt, some people like it....

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump...g-banks-2017-5

The latest COT report shows extremely large numbers of spec shorts on NZD....some would say not justified at an fundamental level, despite the growing protectionism talk . AUD is performing better than its economic numbers would suggest. Expectation is that that it could reverse quite dramatically. Im looking for an entry set up that fits.... but now after RBA

...

... A soft day across most of the board especially in currencies but with a very strong day in commodities and with Gold taking the lead for the FED/NFP combo this week.

Europe back on board from tomorrow, expecting very moving markets this week. We are aligning to set the Highs and Lows of this month rather early in Equities, Dollar, Gold and Euro*.

US in full control after the European opening tomorrow and will remain so until Friday. Expecting a moving NFP to serve as French election part 2 positioning across the FX board so plenty of action expected...


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....and we are rolling in the Euro, according to @goosebone seems to be rather underwhelm about today's close ...he'll walk us through on the rolls all week long so all eyes @goosebone comments this week.

sisse

Ok. I'll do what I can but im not promising how enlightening for anyone my ideas will be. I am a working stiff but I'll try to focus on it around the NY close when i have something to add this week.
A little pressure is good. At least not bad to go to that from "cut the crap" in 7 days or less.

Could you enlighten us on the SP500 st & mt forecast?

Wish I could. Others here are exponentially more qualified than I am to do that. Sisse is trying to help me get back on track here using EUR/USD and that's all I focus on atm. Take most of what I say with a grain of salt. And the rest with a shot of whisky.

break/retest.

Sometimes there is too much pressure to score a goal. It is bound to be a bit of a lottery with all the news and the French election coming up. Maconr/Le Pen 60/40 vs 61/39 prior (source Forexlive.com)

I guess we all recognized that the period of low volatility has been here for some time. Im still not sure how to interpret it. So just in case anyone has the time to read about it from a monetary policy perspective. Its kind of interesting.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econr...2016093pap.pdf

Markets back in the saddle after Bank Holiday yesterday. Things should perk up a bit starting with European open tomorrow if not before.
London rolling within a few ticks of last Daily swing high 1.090x/1x which is no breaking news to anyone I imagine.

*****WICKED LONG NOOB POST ALERT*****

On the FA side this week:

Q1 (Prelim) EU GDP: Expected to further build a case for EU economic strength, weak unemployment numbers today notwithstanding. With inflation on target, ECB left without too much road to kick this can down. A massive flop is news (not expected) anything else is inline and a further coiling of the slow spring behind clearing election risk and next ECB meeting.

FED: An unexpected hike would be seismic of course, but unlikely enough to remove from consideration. Meetings like this one where no hike is almost assured, and no press conference follows, the changes to the statement and dot plot come even more into focus than usual. Add to that market fascination with balance sheet talk and the statement, graph (and speeches following a couple days later) at least have potential for some reaction in dollar. My guess would be any reaction leans to the bull dollar side but that's getting a bit crystal ballish. Watching June hike expectations and bond yields for clues after the meeting.

NFP: Because of the decent flop printed last time around, this report speaks to the Fed's "one off" take on that flop. ((note: the FED statement Wednesday may have already spoken to their "one off" take on the GDP flop))
It should move June hike expectations further to one side or the other so not to be missed on Friday.

ELECTION FINALS: All Euro related events this week should be viewed through the lens of market expectations for the 2nd round. A bit of Brexit noise from Brussels coming too but that should be overwhelmed by this barring a shocker of some kind. Not to say nothing else matters but France, just that wherever expectations lie currently for the elections affects how deeply markets will play all the events in between.
French people are good at many, many things. Near the very top of the list, just below soft ripened cheese comes election polling. A LePen win at this point seems to have reached asteroid impact level probability. Though stranger things have happened, I think the thing to be focussed on here is how much of the risk was priced out with the first round result, and how much waits for full confirmation in the 2nd. My feeling is most or all bets on this are in to the risk cleared side, but, once again, crystal ballish.
Europe especially but all equity markets anxious to finish taking the last of their election hazmat suits off and run free through the wildflowers until Trump starts tweeting about his upcoming Beer Summit Gone Wrong with Duterte and Kim Jong Un.

Lots of shutdown blabbing and budget hot air will generate headlines here and there but no news. Nothing to see on the US domestic policy front.


On the TA side:

I will post my MT (sell) and ST (neutral) maps below. While not totally tweeked and updated they might provide some context for how I'm viewing EU currently.
ST- EU in a tug of war at the 1.09x handle has me watching for a break down of this mini consolidation. I have some levels I am watching for, but much to my surprise the market does not seem to care what levels I am watching for (inconsiderate really). A close on the daily of >1.091x and break down of that level is my signal to look for short entry. I feel it will be a decent shot at riding a swing down towards 1.073x and points south in the ST. Might happen too fast for me, might not happen at all.
MT- The chart kind of shows where I am at with it. If my ST entry carries me through a MT leg down, so be it. On that MT chart I have no screaming signal (yet). But 1.091x area features prominently on the W so could be a buy one get one free deal in the making.

Thats all I got. GL to all in this busy week. Eyeing the old saw 1.091x for NY roll.

entertaining and informative post. A+

good read