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5 years and still no strategy

  • #761
  • May 1, 2017 8:21am May 1, 2017 8:21am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} The problem with these 50 yo indicators, candlesticks is that they have not evolved. They have remained the same for decades. They are used by millions of traders, they are out dated and passed their use by date.
You aren't being serious are you?

Bad traders blame the tools. They work just fine for me. The only thing I have a problem with is patience. My worst childhood habit... the tools are used by millions of traders and most of them have little idea how or when to use them.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #762
  • May 1, 2017 8:28am May 1, 2017 8:28am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} WRONG WRONG WRONG. TA, indicators, candlesticks are used to death and they are used correctly and still they cannot make money. It's not the traders.
Are you being intentionally ironic? If it isn't the traders and they are using the tools correctly then they should be making money.

It's the traders.

I don't understand why you need a '21st century indicator' to perform a task that's been performed for centuries. Perhaps you're so dependant on 21st century tools that you don't understand how to use them. An abacus still works if used correctly.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #763
  • May 1, 2017 8:37am May 1, 2017 8:37am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} Buddy they were give the wrong tools from the start.
Methinks you aren't profitable.

Candlesticks tell precisely what they need to know... which is what they don't already know. The 'tools' they were given to which you speak of weren't 'tools'. They were handicaps.

All any trader has to do is use their brain and watch the tickchart become the 1m chart, 5m chart, 1h chart, 4h chart, 1d chart, 1w chart for months on end to become profitable. Humans exist because of the brain's capacity for pattern recognition. If they forgot how to look for patterns then their biggest problem isn't being poor. It's that they became lazy as children and presumed the world would take care of them.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #764
  • May 1, 2017 8:37am May 1, 2017 8:37am
Problem with looking at charts is we are always naturally drawn to looking for swing points. They stick out so obviously and make trading seem so simple with hindsight.

A key set up that is hard to trade from a TA perspective is the middle of moves, and this is where some of the easiest money is on the DOM when the market is breaking low with size.

for example you have a range - based on your DOM Volume profile. it looks like this

xx
xxx
xxxx
xxxxx
xxxx
xxx
xx

The market starts to trade out side the range, know we want to know if this is likely to be a continuation move or a false break. Now on a candle chart you have no idea what is transacting outside the range or how aggressive its printing.

scenario 1
false break. market trades outside range and the bid just holds whilst size trades into it, it keeps refreshing, he the goes to market and lifts the offers, it crack 5 ticks instantly. this tells us there is a large trader willing to pick up a lot of size below value and that the breakout traders that are trading into him are about to get trapped.

xx
xxx
xxxx
xxxxx
xxxx
xxx
xx
x
xxx (current bid reloads)


scenario 2
continuation trade

but for example you see on the DOM it breaks and starts to look like this

xx
xxx
xxxx
xxxxx
xxxx
xxx
xx
x
x
xxx (current offer reloads)
xx

that current offer continues to reload and no one can lift the price above it. if you were just watching a chart you would be probably thinking we are in a range it is likely to move back inside the range i will fade it (human nature), however the fact there is a big trader sitting on the offer and reloading with size is a huge give away that those buyers about to get trapped, then when he has done all his business on the offer he will go to market to cause those stops to trigger and you have the start of a leg down outside the range. Probably what usually causes a 15 minute candle to close outside the range, but there was no need to wait for that confirmation it was all there in the prints

here is a video of a trader at one of the prop firms i traded at doing just that about 14 mins in the break

Inserted Video
  • #765
  • May 1, 2017 8:41am May 1, 2017 8:41am
however I am not saying you have to trade with a DOM solely, I saw loads of guys in prop firms making money with technical plays, however they all had ladders up and understood these key concepts. It was more there ability to hold there winners and add to positions that made them profitable not really the setups they used
  • #766
  • May 1, 2017 8:46am May 1, 2017 8:46am
Love these guys

Inserted Video
  • #767
  • May 1, 2017 8:46am May 1, 2017 8:46am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} I would be unprofitable if I used the same tools as you and as everyone else. The herd, the majority use the same tools and they get slaughtered trading. Intelligent traders lose money because they were given the wrong tools
The tools perform their use if used properly. Once again; most traders don't use them the right way at the right time.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #768
  • May 1, 2017 8:49am May 1, 2017 8:49am
My opinion is that if you know how to trade manually then you don't need a strategy because you already know a strategy. Every trade you open manually is based on some algorithms/logic. If you make money trading forex then this means that you have a successful trading strategy/logic. I like using indicators even that they are not perfect and they don't always show you the best moment. But they can show me the correct directions and based on my previous experience i can successfully determine what type of trade to open.
  • #769
  • May 1, 2017 8:58am May 1, 2017 8:58am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} I would be unprofitable if I used the same tools as you and as everyone else. The herd, the majority use the same tools and they get slaughtered trading. Intelligent traders lose money because they were given the wrong tools and brainwashed into believing they work. The tools have not evolved to work. You blame the traders for losing. I blame the tools, the strategies they were given. If a losing trader was fortunate enough to be given tools, strategies that have an edge for sure they would make money. And turn Freakout from a losing trader...
They chose to use tools blindly without understanding how they work. That would be their fault. The tools work. The traders don't.

The edge comes from thinking not having some tool.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #770
  • May 1, 2017 9:04am May 1, 2017 9:04am
Also another key mistake that retail traders make is trying to fit a single strategy to all market conditions, context is so important and is one of the most important things to learn.

If its slow and rangey, don't trade breakouts and pullbacks. Pick top and bottoms.

If its ripping in one direction find a way to join that direction - momentum precedes price - buy high sell higher - breaks and pullbacks will work here and even if you get a bad price you will usually still be fine.

Most people want a - do this - then that - equals this - type strategy. But it doesn't exist
  • #771
  • May 1, 2017 9:09am May 1, 2017 9:09am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} They chose to use tools blindly without understanding how they work. That would be their fault. The tools work. The traders don't. The edge comes from thinking not having some tool.
They understand very well how they work. They are just not profitable to use anymore. For example, John Bollinger created the Bollinger bands he knows exactly how they work but he is not a successful trader.

Quoting mark.g
My opinion is that if you know how to trade manually then you don't need a strategy because you already know a strategy. Every trade you open manually is based on some algorithms/logic. If you make money trading forex then this means that you have a successful trading strategy/logic. I like using indicators even that they are not perfect and they don't always show you the best moment. But they can show me the correct directions and based on my previous experience i can successfully determine what type of trade to open.
It is not always strategy/logic but instinct, intuition, gut feel and they are successful at it.

Quoting depthflow
Also another key mistake that retail traders make is trying to fit a single strategy to all market conditions, context is so important and is one of the most important things to learn. If its slow and rangey, don't trade breakouts and pullbacks. Pick top and bottoms. If its ripping in one direction find a way to join that direction - momentum precedes price - buy high sell higher - breaks and pullbacks will work here and even if you get a bad price you will usually still be fine. Most people want a - do this - then that - equals this - type strategy....
if you cannot adapt you cannot survive.
You came here for the truth and let me unveil it for you
  • #772
  • May 1, 2017 9:27am May 1, 2017 9:27am
Quoting DClearsky
{quote} People are increasingly trained to think different in order to do their jobs. accountants think in numbers, lawyers think in laws ... As for the mystic and cryptic stuff... I used to think that i needed to know more and more in order to be a better trader, to be more confident in my trades. maybe im jealous that people can so easily trust their trades to a methodology that seems bizarre to me, such as astrology. People are Trading, and that's what i like about it, and that's what makes the world go round.
As for knowledge specialization, its that kind I was trying to get out of strongtrader.

My motives are probably not like most anymore, I'm not looking for some amazing strategy/revelation to help my trading. I've already seen ones that can be readily applied.

Its more out of curiosity.

I discount nothing and enjoy getting to know 'why'. So if some random fx guru claimed he met an fx buddha who betowed him/her the ultimate key to fx, well I will enjoy seeing how far his/her rabbit hole goes ...in my spare time.
  • #773
  • May 1, 2017 9:30am May 1, 2017 9:30am
Quote
It is not always strategy/logic but instinct, intuition, gut feel and they are successful at it.

I agree with you. I just want to point that the most important thing is to know how to exit the trade. If you know how to exit (close any open trade) then it will be considered as a successful trading. Many traders open trades in correct moment but they don't know how to manage the trades and when to close. This usually leads to losses. For example i cannot be 24/5 in front of my computer and i use a small expert advisor to help me with managing my manual trades. It helps me a lot.
  • #774
  • May 1, 2017 10:04am May 1, 2017 10:04am
As someone wrote earlier, nobody on these forums is profitable unless they show a linked account with a long period of trading.
  • #775
  • May 1, 2017 10:09am May 1, 2017 10:09am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Maybe he's proof that a strategy doesn't work and he's too confused to realize what does

To respond to a previous comment about my last post, personally I dont see ANT distinction between "gambling" and "trading" other than that most successful professional "gamblers" are a bit more clued up, and psychologically stronger than the few successful professional "traders" that Ive met

Generally speaking, strategies (in the sense that we see systems and strategies discussed on formums) cant really work over an extended period of time. I'd probably argue that there are exceptions to this rule.

a) There are obviously statistical outliers who do well purely as a function of survivorship bias.

b) There are those trading systems that by pure luck lock in phase with market conditions, and their wealth gets generated from performance fee's trading these systems on the behalf of clients

c) There are "traders" who apply some form of additional management process to their strategy. The most successful trader Ive personally met made a substantial fortune trading tech stocks during the dot com bubble trading the most basic MA strategy imaginable. He like others, lost almost everything when the crash came, but unlike others, he'd taken substantial profits from his trading account along the way, rather than focussing on maximising his account, and that was due to having some form management process and plan (but purely luck rather than skill).

I'm sure that weve all heard the old van tharp story where people were asked to trade a simulated system with a positive expectancy, and 95% of them still lost money anyway. However, the key point to perhaps take from that story is that they were NOT provided with a complete system as they had discretionary control over position sizing, and their lack of basic knowledege, coupled with poor psychology led to the high failure rate.

The other issue that needs to be made is that the individual component elements of trading "systems" are highly synergistic, and very small changes in one element can result in massive differences in outcome. Unless ALL of the component elements of the system are appropriately balanced, its unlikely that positive results can be achieved. Many people who've spent time backtesting rapidly come to that decision

And finally, most "traders" really wouldnt have much of a clue as to what a successful system actually looks like anyway, and in terms of performance metrics, theyre measuring the entirely wrong thing

On a more positive note, if the OP has survived the first 5 years, he's got a fairly good chance of figuring this stuff out over the next 5. My advice would be to forget asking for advice, but to seriously review his performance to date. The clues are all there if you look
  • #776
  • May 1, 2017 10:22am May 1, 2017 10:22am
20% strategy, 80% trader

Trading in the zone - Mark Douglas was a real eye opener for me
  • #777
  • May 1, 2017 10:46am May 1, 2017 10:46am
Quoting RondaRousey
{quote} WRONG WRONG WRONG. TA, indicators, candlesticks are used to death...
Ronda is not among the most liked guys here, but recently his posts are very honest and with great value. I do suggest to read him carefully, cause he speaks little...

Here is how I look the charts nowadays. Not looking at the candles (they are black on black background - makes sense - right?), just to avoid confusions. The core of the rates engine is one, but the candles looks different. However their behaviour is exactly the same in all fx pairs. When one starts to follow the stop losses can quickly spot on this...
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Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #778
  • May 1, 2017 10:57am May 1, 2017 10:57am
Quoting CrucialPoint
To All The Haters
Here is a nice suggestion from me, what exactly to do with haters. From experience I am speaking. They first hate it, but then, suddenly, they begin to love it...
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Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #779
  • May 1, 2017 11:04am May 1, 2017 11:04am
Quoting depthflow
Problem with looking at charts is we are always naturally drawn to looking for swing points. They stick out so obviously and make trading seem so simple with hindsight. A key set up that is hard to trade from a TA perspective is the middle of moves, and this is where some of the easiest money is on the DOM when the market is breaking low with size. for example you have a range - based on your DOM Volume profile. it looks like this xx xxx xxxx xxxxx xxxx xxx xx The market starts to trade out side the range, know we want to know if this is likely...
Hi,

do you have experience using the DOM in FX-Futures?
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #780
  • May 1, 2017 11:07am May 1, 2017 11:07am
Quoting michisuperfr
{quote} Hi, do you have experience using the DOM in FX-Futures?
yep i do, but i dont really trade FX, i trade bund predominantly and fesx on certani days like 1st and last of month
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