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5 years and still no strategy

  • #721
  • Apr 30, 2017 11:17pm Apr 30, 2017 11:17pm
Quoting Redeflect
The quote, actually, had EVERYTHING to do with trading. If you cannot understand how then the problem is with your thinking. Not his quote. The answer is simple; You aren't taking him seriously because you are not yet his peer.
OK, let's review how markets operate. To keep it simple: if there is an excess volume of buy orders over sell orders, then price rises to fill the excess; and vice versa. For there to be an excess volume of buy orders, buyers are currently more enthusiastic than sellers, and hence their bullish optimism effectively creates a kind of 'self fulfilling prophecy', a rise in price. (If this is incorrect, please explain how........)

Now let's look at his quote "There is no absolute up or down, as Aristotle taught; no absolute position in space; but the position of a body is relative to that of other bodies. Everywhere there is incessant relative change in position throughout the universe, and the observer is always at the center of things."

So now we must find a causal link between this -- e.g. the position of a body in the universe, or its incessant relative change in position -- and either the auction mechanism that lies at the heart of the market, moving price in the manner that it does; or in the collective trader psychology that drives this mechanism.

Can you provide such a causal link -- one that is tangible and meaningful, that adds significant value to our understanding of the trading process?

Or will you simply resort to another ad hominem attack?
  • #722
  • Apr 30, 2017 11:26pm Apr 30, 2017 11:26pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} OK, let's review how markets operate. To keep it simple: if there is an excess volume of buy orders over sell orders, then price rises to fill the excess; and vice versa. For there to be an excess volume of buy orders, buyers are currently more enthusiastic than sellers, and hence their bullish optimism effectively creates a kind of 'self fulfilling prophecy', a rise in price. (If this is incorrect, please explain how........) Now let's look at his quote "There is no absolute up or down, as Aristotle taught; no absolute position in space;...
I don't need to provide the causal link. You just did.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #723
  • Edited 1:28pm May 1, 2017 12:14am | Edited 1:28pm
Quoting VEEFX
While I see you here David.... just want to thank you for your contribution to this community. Your posts have helped me a lot and your programming skills and tools have been a starting point for me to learn mql. I still use your ReduceCcy() and TFToStr() functions extensively along with other functions in your mqh libraries.
Thanks very much, glad you found the MQH libraries useful. Please feel welcome to contact me if you visit NZ again, I'd be very happy to meet you.
(My e-mail address is in post #1 of the "hanover replies to PMs" thread).
  • #724
  • May 1, 2017 12:14am May 1, 2017 12:14am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Bumping this post one last time before I part from this thread... Does anyone know what time in UTC does the daily candle close on EBS and Reuters Dealing 3000 platforms? WHY do brokers have varying server times? Platform time and actual physical server location timezone don't have to be the same. Is the price feed delayed between a GMT+1 and GMT+2 (for example) giving market makers a hidden edge in looking at order flows and further manipulation? Not looking for your experience or opinion or guess work. Just guidance on where I can find...
I don't even know how to answer that. Try researching temporal coordinates.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #725
  • May 1, 2017 12:15am May 1, 2017 12:15am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Banks are however interested in other banks' stops....
This is true...

The guy in the video is an ex Bank Trader.

Customer Order Flow drives the Market not the Banks deciding to take a Position.

So, the Market is as Random as the Customer Order Flow that is driving it.

The Banks are Accepting Positions rather than Creating Positions

Bank Traders have Levels they want to Trade from but it's their Customer Order Flow that dictates the Levels that are Traded.

Banks lose on 75% of the Trades they Accept for Customer due to the tight Spread they are forced to use because of the inter Bank competition for Customers.

Banks profit from the knowledge they gain from the size of Orders entering the Market from Customers.

In effect they are piggy backing on their Customer Orders in order to make up the loss on the Trades they Accept and to make a profit.

With Market conditions changing so quickly the less time spent in the Market, for us Retail Traders, the better.

That's my conclusion anyway

Inserted Video


The sound quality is crap but stick with it.
  • #726
  • May 1, 2017 12:49am May 1, 2017 12:49am
Quoting hanover
{quote} OK, let's review how markets operate. To keep it simple: if there is an excess volume of buy orders over sell orders, then price rises to fill the excess; and vice versa. For there to be an excess volume of buy orders, buyers are currently more enthusiastic than sellers, and hence their bullish optimism effectively creates a kind of 'self fulfilling prophecy', a rise in price. (If this is incorrect, please explain how........)
While it may sound logical and common sense, that's not necessarily true. If there is an excess volume of buy orders, after they are filled, the goal of the liquidity providers is to make a profit for their risk and the only way for that to happen is to move the price in their favor. The market always go against the majority of people because that's where the stops are and because they don't like losing positions so they'll be willing to capitulate, take their losses at lowers prices, and that's where the profits for the market makers come from.
The markets are adaptive, it doesn't matter what strategies people use, it will always go against the majority.
  • #727
  • May 1, 2017 12:55am May 1, 2017 12:55am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks man. I don't need research on timezones and coordinates. I have done extensive research about it during my Y2K years. I have also personally visited Royal Observatory in Greenwich during my stay in the UK. Fascinating history :- I also understand what DSTs do to the server infrastructure and how they affect large/complex multinational corporate systems. It is very straightforward to stick to UTC especially for global streaming apps so why the GMT offset crap for retail traders. I know it is not tied to "forex being decentralized"...
I think you know the answer to your question, but it will never be found publicly. Even a search engine will not help you. That tells me something right there. My personal thought is delays in time translate to delays in price, so you get slipped without your knowledge because it does not show at the point of sale.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #728
  • May 1, 2017 1:01am May 1, 2017 1:01am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I think you know the answer to your question, but it will never be found publicly. Even a search engine will not help you. That tells me something right there. My personal thought is delays in time translate to delays in price, so you get slipped without your knowledge because it does not show at the point of sale.
Lol... time-value. That was actually the very first edge I tried to exploit.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #729
  • May 1, 2017 1:06am May 1, 2017 1:06am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Lol... time-value. That was actually the very first edge I tried to exploit.
Not exactly. I think the price is well within the same general range, it is just a small slip, a pip or so or maybe even a half pip. But if you take the Vegas model you will understand that even that small a slip over a large client base over a significant amount of time means a lot of money!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #730
  • May 1, 2017 1:14am May 1, 2017 1:14am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Not exactly. I think the price is well within the same general range, it is just a small slip, a pip or so or maybe even a half pip. But if you take the Vegas model you will understand that even that small a slip over a large client base over a significant amount of time means a lot of money!
Oh, I know. There's a reason why I found it to be not worth exploiting. It doesn't happen often enough to cover the spread. Although it isn't exactly something that should be ignored. 'They' don't ignore it.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #731
  • May 1, 2017 1:30am May 1, 2017 1:30am
Quoting Artcool
{quote} Thanks for telling your story. But I didn't catch how compounding turned you out from looser to...winner...

because I understand it's pros and cons, so that I can fully abuse it through high leverage haha

success is the ability to see things as they are, which creates opportunities.
Everthing is an opportunity, even things which appear ugly and frustrating.

we get what we give. but we can remove bad karma by experiencing things mindfully.life is a constant rinse and repeat. until you find peace and harmony.

sorry for the OT... as you see now I'm more interested in removing than gaining.. money comes when you deserve it.
  • #732
  • May 1, 2017 1:53am May 1, 2017 1:53am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Oh, I know. There's a reason why I found it to be not worth exploiting. It doesn't happen often enough to cover the spread. Although it isn't exactly something that should be ignored. 'They' don't ignore it.
Personally, I believe the only edge is time. Leverage works against time. Do you really think any hedge fund uses 500:1 leverage? All of these Rags to Riches threads on FF eventually die a gruesome death. The only edge in speculation is time.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #733
  • May 1, 2017 2:27am May 1, 2017 2:27am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Although, I am not the conspiracy theorist types but have a hunch. I feel it is far more than just a few pips. If we have dark pools in regulated markets, who's stopping the Banks, LPs and Prime brokers in an completely unregulated market to have their own cartel type price feed completely off the grid and different from the retail feed that we see. Why is every FX website offering live currency feeds at no cost and regulated feeds come at a cost from the exchange? I read somewhere that LPs also compensate their broker subscriber base if...
I don't think it's conspiracy at all. I think that is just understanding the market. The brokers have to have a reason to be in this game. It makes sense what you have said, especially to the large brokers. Take Oanda for example. We know they hedge client orders, and that is why they survived the CHF debacle that ultimately crushed FXCM and Alpari. As for the offset, it took me time to realize that this was happening. I actually learned it here when I began to realize that everyone sees different charts, so discussing trade signals is a waste of time. I also began to understand that my price is not necessarily the actual price. Now here is why I think the price is close, what is to stop you or I from opening multiple broker accounts and arbing the the price differences? It will not matter for you and I, but I am quite sure that hedge funds have thought about what you are thinking about, and price issues will be quickly exploited. So I think that retail brokers have to stay close to the actual centralized quotes that the Central banks use. If they don't, they might find themselves on the wrong end of a large order.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #734
  • May 1, 2017 2:38am May 1, 2017 2:38am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} If we have dark pools in regulated markets, who's stopping the Banks, LPs and Prime brokers in an completely unregulated market to have their own cartel type price feed completely off the grid and different from the retail feed that we see.
That is correct. The electronic price on retail platforms is the best bid/ask for very small orders, which is the last on the hierarchy of the trading ecosystem.

http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/4665.html
  • #735
  • May 1, 2017 3:23am May 1, 2017 3:23am
so the whole forex is about robbing retail traders lol the quotations I see on xe and on TV are faked.. holy s
  • #736
  • May 1, 2017 3:34am May 1, 2017 3:34am
Quoting hanover
{quote} If a scholar wants to be taken seriously by their peers in the academic/scientific community, then when they put forward a theory, they cite prior sources, and present research and evidence to support their theory. {quote} To suggest that I should think differently assumes that you know how I'm currently thinking...... and what I'm currently seeing. {quote} I'm always keen to learn, but you would need to give me something tangible to investigate, and also demonstrate that it's worth investigating.
What you write or say mirrors how you think as well as what I write or say mirrors how I think: you have a deterministic and linear thinking, so that whenever you read something unknown you ask for proves, instead I try to understand and go deeper until I find whether there is a logic behind, and proves come on their own.
There is no better prove than the evidence of what you can observe happening right in front of you again and again: so the real matter is not the prove itself but how to see what you actually are not able to see.
This is how I walk through the unknown and this is how the unknown has become a true knowledge.
I make you an example: force of gravity.......it does exist since ever and it did exist well before Newton, when no one was aware of it.
So what did Newton have done? he simply discovered the evidence of a force that was already in place through the observation of nature: he saw something no one was seeing and got an intuition; thereafter he came up with maths.
Thanks to Newton, at this moment in time, official science knows that force of gravity does exist, but none of them has understood yet what force of gravity really is, they still ignore which is its source. Why? because the seek for proves instead of looking for understanding.

Again, I'm not suggesting you should do something: you have to do what you want to do.
I'm suggesting that there is a reality we cannot see until we change the way we think, and is the reality of how markets work (and not only markets). You might be interested in going deeper or you might be happy with waht you already know: this is up to you, I don't mind.
Thanks
  • #737
  • May 1, 2017 3:51am May 1, 2017 3:51am
Quoting HeyYou
so the whole forex is about robbing retail traders lol the quotations I see on xe and on TV are faked.. holy s
lol. the whole forex is about 85% of losing traders leading more and more traders down a losing path.

some maths:
If 85% of traders lose, and if one out of ten traders care to come out and teach..
Then you get 8.5 losing teachers compared to 1.5 winning teachers out of a group of 100 traders.

it gets even worse when teachers don't care to lift up others around them. anyone here ever try to tell their teacher that the teacher was wrong in elementary school? most likely the student got a spanking lol.

now im not pointing fingers at anyone, don't point your finger at yourself now!
  • #738
  • May 1, 2017 3:54am May 1, 2017 3:54am
Quoting strongtrader
What you write or say mirrors how you think as well as what I write or say mirrors how I think.......
Thanks for your reply. I think I understand better where you are coming from. I can relate to the point you made about love in an earlier post (#645); I believe that we are primarily existential beings; even knowledge at its most abstract somehow has to be experienced, to make any kind of deep, meaningful sense. For example, I can only understand 2+2=4 if I'm first capable of existentially conceptualizing '2', '4', the process of addition, etc.

However, I also believe that there is a reason for everything, however deeply hidden (or currently undiscovered) it might be. I've been trying to understand the meaning of your quote in post #673, and its relevance to trading. Do you see a direct causal link between the physical universe and the human mind, i.e. the relative motion of bodies in the universe somehow affects the way that traders think and markets behave; or are you simply drawing some kind of more abstract parallel? I'm curious to know what you had in mind, if you're willing to share your thoughts. Thanks again.
  • #739
  • May 1, 2017 4:01am May 1, 2017 4:01am
85% of traders lose well not sure if its exact but id have to say the banks win more than individual traders, information is key profit goes like this investors who know the true underlying value, liquidity investors or index than last is the traders that don't know the under lying value, but the banks will never tell you that your going to loose as you make their liquidity and profit go up so all these micro lots and smaller options are big money for banks. I feel like this market is more an addition then a real investment, how many hours spent / profit vs hours could have been working or doing something else? I now watch how many hours I spend on this including hours thinking about it, because be honest most traders are probably just gamblers with an investor hat on.
  • #740
  • Edited 4:16am May 1, 2017 4:03am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting DClearsky
{quote} lol. the whole forex is about 85% of losing traders leading more and more traders down a losing path. some maths: If 85% of traders lose, and if one out of ten traders care to come out and teach.. Then you get 8.5 losing teachers compared to 1.5 winning teachers out of a group of 100 traders. it gets even worse when teachers don't care to lift up others around them. anyone here ever try to tell their teacher that the teacher was wrong in elementary school? most likely the student got a spanking lol. now im not pointing fingers at anyone,...

we can definitely lose very well by ourselves lol no edge = loss.

99% of the strategies out there give no edge so.

Good brokers know they don't need to do anything.
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