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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,181
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:26am Apr 30, 2017 3:26am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} Alex, Thank you for the advice! I will put some more focus into attacking. I have read the bus analogy several times. I may go back and re-read the thread again because i always seem to extract something new every time i read it. I realize my questions are little redundant as to what is already mentioned in the thread. Just wanting to make sure i grasp what is taught here!

FTI says ask if you do not understand - please keep asking if you need it - I always learn sth from everyone's replies so go for it.

Heck I had no clue really for first 2/3 reads of thread at start - now I cannot think why I did not get it earlier - rigidity well that and things going on in my life that got/get in the way sometimes - mustn't complain tho.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,182
  • Apr 30, 2017 3:34am Apr 30, 2017 3:34am
Quoting warbee
{quote} i notice this too, if you rescue too many times, means you are enter at wrong timing, attack is the way to bring the money in. for what i notice is 3kingdom had already help us in the attack and it help to reduce the mistake/rescue also. and, for the lots size of scout, its better to put it in very small position, and try not to use scout to make profits. if scout if too big/normal size, when the market suddenly move 40-60 pips away, the scout can make a huge damage to your books.

Hey don't get me wrong I am happy when my scouts make me money rather than lose it - I like it best when I can get some men in and out banking profits and leave others to run for free. But I really do believe success is in strong attacking skills while limiting damage when required and so I understand better AOW - it is a battle out there. I notice I have ditched the dancing stuff more going for war instead.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,183
  • Apr 30, 2017 10:02am Apr 30, 2017 10:02am
Sun tzu

"over-solicitude for his men, which exposes him to worry and trouble"
  • #57,184
  • May 1, 2017 12:05am May 1, 2017 12:05am
Quoting indianguyinny24
How is everyone doing...see some new faces..
Hi V,

did you buy the options book that FTI recommeded? I was wondering if that book require a foundation in options before reading.

I bought "the money market by marcia stigum" , "the secret of the temple john michael greer" (this one should be very interesting) and "
Foreign Exchange and Money Markets: Managing Foreign and Domestic Currency Operations by Heinz Riehl, Rita M. Rodriguez" Is the one he recommended you to bought similar to them too?

The other 3 that I mentioned above that I went ahead and bought is top value stuff, I would recommend anyone who wants to understand the workings of the market structure more to get it(just a caveat, there is 3000 or more pages between them and it is quite tough reading at some parts so the thread is still a better start). Having said that, alot of it have been mentioned in the thread, just mask up. I am still in the midst of reading, but just browsing through the content and book it is one of those material that is "very hard to find from googling" the examples and scenarios for application.


Regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,185
  • Edited 12:32am May 1, 2017 12:22am | Edited 12:32am
Quoting dbrown101
Not trying to clutter or take over the thread but i have a couple quick questions. In the example I just gave where the 5 min tf is counter trending the hourly and daily, lets say i enter in with a scout and then the 5 min goes against me ( and syncs up with the hourly and daily) would it be bad MO to try to rescue scout (essentially against the major trend)rather than killing it and flipping? I know this has been discussed in the thread but im just trying to gain clarity. It is probably not wise to do so and is probably dependent on situation and...
Hi Friend,


One more thing to note I feel is the "time of session", ie if you are on the NY timezone, I am guessing the best time to trade and move would be in the morning, until the london boys goes back. On that thought, usually, I notice, once the london closes, NY dries up and for all its worth, it could be bouncing in a 10 pip tight range just the big boys market making, which leaves no room for a rescue until the next possible furry of orders at Tokyo or a flash run at wellingtons.

Oh and swap rates, positive swaps will benefit you, while negative swaps will push your BE further.
Least, rescues must be swift and decisive, not half-heartedly done. Like what Phil mention, scouts are also expendables.

Regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,186
  • May 1, 2017 12:27am May 1, 2017 12:27am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} not sure if i am correct on this, but what you see, might be more algos entering the market. is this the kind of pa you are feeling? because i also felt like the terrain changed alot since 1-2 years ago. in any case, its a pretty tough question if you ask me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V43a-KxLFcg
Hey yea,
This is what I deduced too. It is what it is, times moving forward, we just need adapt with her.
Given the development of the fintech, algos are running alot of the show.
FinTech is running the show now and alot of the banks operation are dependent on it. So, previous needs for NY to call Tokyo with a large order for a USD/JPY order can be done through different instruments at their disposal in seconds.

Regards

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...h-industry.asp

next on my list after i finish my current 678687 books
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,187
  • Edited 1:20am May 1, 2017 12:38am | Edited 1:20am
Hey guys,

Just a heads up, french election this Sunday. E/U should be shaped by politics yet again, polls leading up to the election date should prove moving, especially if something shocking shows up like if Le Pen takes the lead out of sudden.

Oh OPEC is on the sides too.

Ok everyone, take care, good fortune.

Regards

PS. any canadians around? Quite alot of sour news coming out of canada, ie housing issues
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,188
  • Edited 4:16am May 1, 2017 3:42am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hey yea, This is what I deduced too. It is what it is, times moving forward, we just need adapt with her. Given the development of the fintech, algos are running alot of the show. FinTech is running the show now and alot of the banks operation are dependent on it. So, previous needs for NY to call Tokyo with a large order for a USD/JPY order can be done through different instruments at their disposal in seconds. Regards http://www.investopedia.com/articles...h-industry.asp next...

I just thought of it this morning, the weakness of hft is their rigidity, how this rigidity came about is from the fear of the people who write the code, fear drives their rigidity to cut at specific levels, encoded in their algorithm. the key is to understand where their fear is.

No matter how big or fast hfts are, they need orders to get their positions, where do people place stops? That's where hft are at. The crux, is to spot the stop hunting activities, it should be very much more obvious, since hfts are robots and level driven. See where their fear is encoded by their programmer.

This is of course a 1 entry mo, not inline with the teachings here, which was for my exploration into gann's work. As for how its used with the mo here, that I'm still figuring out, because of the volatility factor, that the hft do quote stuff then pull orders as soon as you try to hit them, the implication is that rescue may be against excessive volatility which is brought about by hft.

The problem with hft is, there is either alot alot of liquidity which can stop price from flowing or in critical times, they pull all their bids and ask and price just drop like a rock or fly like a rocket like in the flash crash for no reason. The predatorial activities by hft to hunt each other force the flash crash scenario.

In essense, the problem nick leeson was dealing with is a very enlarged version of the problem we are dealing with. That's why i had a huge interest in figuring out the mistake nick leeson made, he was wrong where he had gone rigid with a predictive mindset and increased his gamma against the markets by a huge lot. Should be a collar to buy time then see if can rescue after market is done with its down move. Together with the fibo numbers as applied with rescue applied on options too.
  • #57,189
  • Edited 4:08am May 1, 2017 3:53am | Edited 4:08am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} I just thought of it this morning, the weakness of hft is their rigidity, how this rigidity came about is from the fear of the people who write the code, fear drives their rigidity to cut at specific levels, encoded in their algorithm. the key is to understand where their fear is. No matter how big or fast hfts are, they need orders to get their positions, where do people place stops? That's where hft are at. The crux, is to spot the stop hunting activities, it should be very much more obvious, since hfts are robots and level driven. See...
It is very complex and elaborate.
For example, there are also algo to sense/ping other algo, which what they want to do is trap the other or just falsely bid it up. For example, it can place huge limit orders at 1.10 level, only for another breakout algo to sense it and attempt to trigger it, but the first algo cancels the order, and instead, got a cheaper fill. The possibilities is limitless, as long as you can get the math for it.

But bro, I feel its better to keep discussion of it out of here because this is not what the thread is about.

Regards

oh yea, not to mention, algo and insider trading, is also an issue, which i find, is a very dark place.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nsider-trading


ah just saw all your reply, yea indeed. i think investopedia have got quite a few good article based on the various types of algo at play .. the more common ones. i cant find the deeper stuff though, then again, it begets the question, how can that aid our trading here?
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,190
  • Edited 5:03am May 1, 2017 4:19am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} It is very complex and elaborate. For example, there are also algo to sense/ping other algo, which what they want to do is trap the other or just falsely bid it up. For example, it can place huge limit orders at 1.10 level, only for another breakout algo to sense it and attempt to trigger it, but the first algo cancels the order, and instead, got a cheaper fill. The possibilities is limitless, as long as you can get the math for it. But bro, I feel its better to keep discussion of it out of here because this is not what the thread is about....

Hmm, as for this, I'm not very sure if it's appropriate, but what motivated me to post was AOW, know your enemy and know yourself, and a hundred battle you need not fear. The hft part is what i was referring to. The read part of the hft still applies.

You know, what you mentioned above, is part of the feel, it's much in line with what fti is trying to teach us, not just form reads, but who are producing the form reads.

Just my opinion though. I think what you said is inline with this thread. The read of the feel of the chart should still be inline with this thread.
  • #57,191
  • May 1, 2017 5:06am May 1, 2017 5:06am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hmm, as for this, I'm not very sure if it's appropriate, but what motivated me to post was AOW, know your enemy and know yourself, and a hundred battle you need not fear. The hft part is what i was referring to. The read part of the hft still applies. You know, what you mentioned above, is part of the feel, it's much in line with what fti is trying to teach us, not just form reads, but who are producing the form reads. Just my opinion though. I think what you said is inline with this thread. The read of the feel of the chart should still...
yup, same here. first reason for my research into it was to know it better, at least, what am I up against.

I guess you can also say, it is part of the "market structure" aspects now?


I was looking at some old charts, and compared to charts these days, moves back then, were alot cleaner, in a way. though, it may just be my mind and eyes playing trick.

Regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,192
  • Edited 5:57am May 1, 2017 5:30am | Edited 5:57am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} yup, same here. first reason for my research into it was to know it better, at least, what am I up against. I guess you can also say, it is part of the "market structure" aspects now? I was looking at some old charts, and compared to charts these days, moves back then, were alot cleaner, in a way. though, it may just be my mind and eyes playing trick. Regards
my sentiments too, yep, market structure is changing, and we need study the enemy, to account for their tactics, and adapt to their tactics.

nop, not your eyes playing tricks on you, if you see 1min flows, the flows are much clearer than the 5mins flows, which is that the moves in the markets are getting more and more compressed in time, its like the 1min now is the old 5mins, and its very persistent, since hft entered the markets and hit critical mass. just an observation though, this i have to observe the markets more.

the structure changed quite abit with hft introduction.
  • #57,193
  • May 1, 2017 5:42am May 1, 2017 5:42am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} my sentiments too, yep, market structure is changing, and we need study the enemy, to account for their tactics, and adapt to their tactics. nop, not your eyes playing tricks on you, if you see 1min flows, the flows are much clearer than the 5mins flows, which is that the moves in the markets are getting more and more compressed in time, its like the 1min now is the old 5mins, and its very persistent, since hft entered the markets and hit critical mass. just an observation though, this i have to observe the markets more. the structure changed...
yea, just the evolution of fintech I guess.
One thing tho, actually they are not our "enemies", in my opinion, the enemy is still ourselves, and they instead can be our tools..

I think thats subjective, sometimes, 1min is messy as heck too, what I done was compare them on 1H and 1D, for the "very old vs very new" charts comparison.

That is what I like about what FTI share here, the concept(ie HH HL, LH LL, simple terrain reads).. all of them will stand the test of time, and "keeping it simple and strong" MO.

Regards
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,194
  • May 1, 2017 6:09am May 1, 2017 6:09am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} yea, just the evolution of fintech I guess. One thing tho, actually they are not our "enemies", in my opinion, the enemy is still ourselves, and they instead can be our tools.. I think thats subjective, sometimes, 1min is messy as heck too, what I done was compare them on 1H and 1D, for the "very old vs very new" charts comparison. That is what I like about what FTI share here, the concept(ie HH HL, LH LL, simple terrain reads).. all of them will stand the test of time, and "keeping it simple and strong" MO. Regards
ic.

yep, i agree that fti's stuff is very powerful and robust. the rest is up to our ability to help us out.
  • #57,195
  • May 1, 2017 7:51am May 1, 2017 7:51am
HFT is not the cause of your losses neither is your enemy. They are liquidity providers or market makers. Their job is not different from what the floor traders used to do. Stop blaming other people for your failure. Its not the HTF, nor the banks, yellen, whatever. Nobody knows what is going to happen tomorrow in the markets. They are not random, but they are close to random. A lot of banks are net losers often, but it doesn't matter. Nobody can manipulate the markets in a systematic way. Off-course a big gun can buy something to make it's price go up with the hope other investors will bite. But if nobody wants to buy that stock you are gonna get burned. Those who joined the party were already bullish on that stock and didn't want to be first.

So take responsibility guys. Nobody is trading against you. Who cares about your 1000-3000 dollar account. Even If the sharks are fishing, they are not interested in your pennies.
Special one
  • #57,196
  • May 2, 2017 6:42am May 2, 2017 6:42am
Quoting TradeGenuis
HFT is not the cause of your losses neither is your enemy. They are liquidity providers or market makers. Their job is not different from what the floor traders used to do. Stop blaming other people for your failure. Its not the HTF, nor the banks, yellen, whatever. Nobody knows what is going to happen tomorrow in the markets. They are not random, but they are close to random. A lot of banks are net losers often, but it doesn't matter. Nobody can manipulate the markets in a systematic way. Off-course a big gun can buy something to make it's price...

eh think you're overdoing this....no-one that I know here thinks like you are saying... but you make good points for others. We are using FTI crystal ball.....

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,197
  • Edited 9:02am May 2, 2017 7:54am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} yeh cheers will have a look - there are always gonna be changes I guess but the market is clearly everything in summation so think we can still trade well and need to watch for the way she dances and changes her dancing. Alex
there is 1 trick i have up my sleeve for this kind of situation, which is, suppose you have 6 levels, fibo, 1 1 2 3 5 20, for rescue, i will only attack to a maximum of 1 1 2 3 5, which is 12, and leave 20 there for a specific purpose of rescue, which are emergency rescue only units. which means the 12 units are for attack/rescue as per normal, but an ace up my sleeve for 20, assuming all 12 tanks, this is last level rescue. supposed to be 21, for fibo but, 12*1.618 rounded up = 20. but you need to plan in advance before doing this.

that is, the critical point of 62%, according to the fibo level, after you have 38% in, the last level in to be able to rescue using the golden spiral will be at 62%, so the mm capitalization can be worked backwards from the 62% level.
  • #57,198
  • May 2, 2017 10:14am May 2, 2017 10:14am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} there is 1 trick i have up my sleeve for this kind of situation, which is, suppose you have 6 levels, fibo, 1 1 2 3 5 20, for rescue, i will only attack to a maximum of 1 1 2 3 5, which is 12, and leave 20 there for a specific purpose of rescue, which are emergency rescue only units. which means the 12 units are for attack/rescue as per normal, but an ace up my sleeve for 20, assuming all 12 tanks, this is last level rescue. supposed to be 21, for fibo but, 12*1.618 rounded up = 20. but you need to plan in advance before doing this. that...
Hi - can you show an example of using your 20?

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,199
  • Edited 10:46am May 2, 2017 10:26am | Edited 10:46am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi - can you show an example of using your 20? Alex
Well, it's the same mo and mm, except you simply leave the last level rescue of 20 troops as safety to use only when 12 units are all sunk.

Say, you have 32 units total.

Say for example, you have 1 scout, you attack with 1, attack again with 2 and again with 3, but sudden counter impulse leaves you with 1 1 2 3, so you attempt rescue with 5 to try bring 3 out but 5 fail as well, and you are at the critical point if you add and rescue at this point, it would be death battle, so you only fast in fast our to bring some troopers back to try to release your capital use.

So at 12 units with total 32 units, you may not have sufficient units to rescue your troopers if you continue attacking, if all are sunk, so to account for that the 62 percent is reserved troopers.

Say once you deployed 20, you can only have enough for 5 to be brought out, you bring 5 out, so you have 7 left, spiral out once for next rescue, 13, so 13 rescue 7 and see if you can bring all, if not slowly take them out.

However, if flipping is possible, then flipping usually is a better choice, because this could expose book up to alot more risk.

I'm sort of working on a version with a zero cost collar as a add on strategy to be used in strong counter trends. My intuition is, with the collar added, the rescue can mitigate the volatility over extension scenario which kills most books and make them become rogue traders.

Essentially, it's the nick leeson case. I realised that though that's tier one mindset, but he made a predictive and tactical error in which he sold both sides options, which was wrong. If price move down, his exposure is too much that it will accelerate his book to death really fast.

Instead, the more appropriate one is to use a collar to stop bleeding, then let market do it's thing, when window for rescue come in, then he engineer slow strategic retreat for his troopers.
  • #57,200
  • May 3, 2017 2:40am May 3, 2017 2:40am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Well, it's the same mo and mm, except you simply leave the last level rescue of 20 troops as safety to use only when 12 units are all sunk. Say, you have 32 units total. Say for example, you have 1 scout, you attack with 1, attack again with 2 and again with 3, but sudden counter impulse leaves you with 1 1 2 3, so you attempt rescue with 5 to try bring 3 out but 5 fail as well, and you are at the critical point if you add and rescue at this point, it would be death battle, so you only fast in fast our to bring some troopers back to try...
Thanks.. get what you are saying

I like your use of fibs ... I do similar putting them in at next fib levels depends...trouble with counter trend rescue is stimes it pulls back very small and you need to flip over really .......however the counter trend move is a good place to take out men as it reduces loss levels. After a few waves we can also expect (but may not get) a deeper pullback good for rescue - I cannot quite decide if I am doing stupid rescues sometimes counter trend which need to be fast in/out but sometimes pullbacks are weak anyways.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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